Yeah that's really bizarre. Other than waiting for the Jones leaning counties to tabulate their votes, I wonder what the Times knows that we don't.
US Politics
- Thread starter Nick 0208 Ldn
- Start date
Yeah that's really bizarre. Other than waiting for the Jones leaning counties to tabulate their votes, I wonder what the Times knows that we don't.
Either way, this should have been 99.9% Jones with Moore and perhaps his horse voting Moore
So far, this doesn't look that good for Moore. Most of the democratic vote is still out there and his lead constantly between 4-5% with 40% of the overall vote in.
Keep an eye on Mobile and Jefferson counties on the NY Times page. Loads of potential Jones votes still to come.
Didn't they do something similar with Hilary the election last year(I really can't remember). But it's very odd.
Yep. Smells like it.
Their algo is probably extrapolating potential outstanding Jones votes in Dem leaning counties. We should know more in the next 30 minutes.
They simply extrpolate Jefferson and Mobile votes and they seem to be reasonably confident.
It's up to 90% now.
In case the NYT does in fact know what they are doing, Jones is now up to 85% for what it's worth.
Edit: 90%. They are gaining confidence.
Edit: 90%. They are gaining confidence.
NYT had Hilary at about 80% until it became clear what was happening if I remember correctly.
Cheers.
NY Times page now has Jones at 85% chance of winning. 
90% for Jones now. If he loses they will look like massive mugs
NY Times page now has Jones at 85% chance of winning.
90%. Wonder what they know. That's pretty close to "unless a meteorite strikes Birmingham, Jones will do it."
Only 40% or so from Jefferson and Madison, 3% in Mobile and Montgomery. Very low numbers...there is still hope.
In before the failing NY Times and Fake NewsJesus didn't know it was that high. Oh Jones now talking a big hit now, down to 70%NYT had Hilary at about 80% until it became clear what was happening if I remember correctly.
72 wtf
Numbers from big cities tend to come late, that’s why there is still a chance for Jones.
71 wtf
74 wtf
That's a downward jump and a half...
Monroe went to Moore, which Jones needed to win by 8% by his benchmarks. Buttler als rerported only a narrow Jones win
69 nice
Moore up by 7 points. Can't see Jones coming back from this.
Everything been said about this race but I'm completely depressed that people have actively gone out to vote for Moore. Really disgusting.
66...
Don't get your hopes up peeps. That NYT model is crazy.
538 reporting enormous black voter turnout, exceeding all expectations.
Looking at the bechmarks, Jones is outperfoming his in the larger counties, even likely winning Baldwin by +15, which Moore was predicted to need to win by +27. Moore rules in rural Alabama, far outrunning his benchmarks, but that's very few votes.
Looking at the bechmarks, Jones is outperfoming his in the larger counties, even likely winning Baldwin by +15, which Moore was predicted to need to win by +27. Moore rules in rural Alabama, far outrunning his benchmarks, but that's very few votes.
yeah really
Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +14 to Moore +10.
so it could be practically anything
It will take a small miracle or Jones to pull this off. He's down by 50k votes with about 67% of precincts reporting.
Just had a sense of déjà-vu.
53-46 in Moore's favour I say it'll end up.
53-46 in Moore's favour I say it'll end up.
Not sure. Mobile is missing almost completely, 2/3rds of Jefferson is still out there. Turnout will decide this and the expectations of high black turnout is likely he reason for the NYT's prediction.