US Politics

Collins, Flake and co could be looking for cover for refusing to back him.
 
Going to guess Collins, Murkowsi, and Flake will each vote no....which would allow Manchin to vote yes.
I don't get this. How come the Republicans in blue-leaning districts are not under pressure to vote with the Dems?
 
It's not really bizaree. He's blamed for raping a girl in a drunken state. Him saying "yeah, I drank a little too much sometimes" would make it so that the media would twist it in a way that basically implies his guilt "Well he obviously drank a lot, so that means that he raped the girl when he was in a blackout". And he would have no way to prove it isn't true. It was more than 30 years ago. That will be just enough to discredit him, regardless of whether it's the truth or not.

As for him drinking during high school/university, I mean - who didn't?

You really showing your face here again mate? Shouldn’t you be outside Ford’s house telling her she’s a dirty liar by now?
 
I don't get this. How come the Republicans in blue-leaning districts are not under pressure to vote with the Dems?

They aren’t blue leaning. Murkowski has issues with Kavanaugh because of Roe v Wade and issues related to his positions on indigenous/native American policies that are unique to Alaska. Collins is just a liberal Republican who has Roe v Wade and “maybe it’s not a good idea to appoint a rapist to the Supreme Court” concerns, and Flake is fence sitting because his buddy Coons convinced him to support a delay to do an investigation. Each of them are doing it for slightly different reasons.
 
Also other Republicans that could really be pressured by this aren't up for re-election until 2020 when the map favors the Democrats a bit more.
 
There might be a tiny chance they are getting him to withdraw



Back to reality though, most likely just cocksure that nothing will turn up from the FBI investigation.
 
I think in hindsight it was sheer stupidity to nominate Kavanaugh when they could have gone for a less controversial conservative pick. The Dems would have still tried to stall but it wouldn't have been enough to stop a confirmation and definitely wouldn't have had a huge impact on public opinion.

As people have mentioned, must have to do with Kavanaugh's views on presidential power. There has to be something in it for the Donald.
 
They aren’t blue leaning. Murkowski has issues with Kavanaugh because of Roe v Wade and issues related to his positions on indigenous/native American policies that are unique to Alaska. Collins is just a liberal Republican who has Roe v Wade and “maybe it’s not a good idea to appoint a rapist to the Supreme Court” concerns, and Flake is fence sitting because his buddy Coons convinced him to support a delay to do an investigation. Each of them are doing it for slightly different reasons.
I get that. I don't know why Dems are under pressure to vote with Rs on issues when there's nothing like that on the other side. I am not talking about Flake, Collins and Murkowski.
 
Also other Republicans that could really be pressured by this aren't up for re-election until 2020 when the map favors the Democrats a bit more.

The only other one in play would be Corker, but he has already said he is voting yes. And it wouldn’t affect him either way since he’s retiring in a month.
 
Lindsey's working hard to become the next AG.

Yeah, I really don't understand why though. It's not like VP where you're in the history books in a big way. Who gives a feck about who was AG once? And it would mean opening himself up fully to Trump's petty temper tantrums any time he didn't sufficiently bow and scrape.
 
I get that. I don't know why Dems are under pressure to vote with Rs on issues when there's nothing like that on the other side. I am not talking about Flake, Collins and Murkowski.

Because they are in heavily Republican states that Trump won and are reliant on centrist independents to break their way to get reeelcted. There are no centrist Dems in liberal states so there would be no opposite examples to the Manchin situation.
 
Because they are in heavily Republican states that Trump won and are reliant on centrist independents to break their way to get reeelcted. There are no centrist Dems in liberal states so there would be no opposite examples to the Manchin situation.
Don't mind my ignorance. Is this phenomenon new for the Dems, has it been proven that it helps Dems keep seats? Because if not, voting for a serious conservative to the court for the next 30 years just to keep a seat, seems like a serious risk.
 
I get that. I don't know why Dems are under pressure to vote with Rs on issues when there's nothing like that on the other side. I am not talking about Flake, Collins and Murkowski.
Because the Senate is heavily tilted towards red states. There aren’t really any ‘blue state’ R aside from Collins and she is in that position because of a wacky, heavily red CD there and street cred built up over the years.

 
Because the Senate is heavily tilted towards red states. There aren’t really any ‘blue state’ R aside from Collins and she is in that position because of a wacky, heavily red CD there and street cred built up over the years.


Thanks. Pretty fecked up.
 
They aren’t blue leaning. Murkowski has issues with Kavanaugh because of Roe v Wade and issues related to his positions on indigenous/native American policies that are unique to Alaska. Collins is just a liberal Republican who has Roe v Wade and “maybe it’s not a good idea to appoint a rapist to the Supreme Court” concerns, and Flake is fence sitting because his buddy Coons convinced him to support a delay to do an investigation. Each of them are doing it for slightly different reasons.

You really think that Coons convinced Flake? I think it's probably because he is retiring from the senate and thinking of a 2020 presidential run. "Doing the right thing" on Kavanaugh is one of the decisions keeping that in mind.
 
Thanks. Pretty fecked up.
It’s as if electoral system designed by a bunch of privileged old white men 300 years ago doesn’t work well at all with shifting demographics and increasing urban concentration that is a staple of modern life.

Electoral College needs to go. Proportional representation based on vote % statewide/nationwide instead of this current fptp clusterfeck.
 
You really think that Coons convinced Flake? I think it's probably because he is retiring from the senate and thinking of a 2020 presidential run. "Doing the right thing" on Kavanaugh is one of the decisions keeping that in mind.

If he's considering a run then he would almost certainly want to vote for Kavanaugh as the GOP has moved into a tribal/pro-Trump area where voting against Trump would be disqualifying.
 
If he's considering a run then he would almost certainly want to vote for Kavanaugh as the GOP has moved into a tribal/pro-Trump area where voting against Trump would be disqualifying.

But won't he be running against trump?

Can hardly go and agree with everything.
 
Don't mind my ignorance. Is this phenomenon new for the Dems, has it been proven that it helps Dems keep seats? Because if not, voting for a serious conservative to the court for the next 30 years just to keep a seat, seems like a serious risk.

States like North Dakota, Indiana, West Virginia and maybe one or two others are generally more conservative than your average state, so Dems who do well in those parts generally run towards a centrist platform that requires independents who may ordinarily lean Republican, to vote for them. Each Senator is therefore going to make a political calculation of what works in their respective states. Donnelly has made the bet that he is doing well enough to where he can vote no. Manchin appears to be flirting with a yes vote since Trump obliterated Hillary there by nearly 40% in 2016 and the state generally leans significantly to the right. His calculation therefore would be to preserve as many independents as possible. Each state with a tight Senate race is going to be different and has to be analyzed independently.
 
But won't he be running against trump?

Can hardly go and agree with everything.
This is more about being a team player.

Transforming the judiciary has long been the #1 priority of evangelicals. If Flake kaputz that then it’s safe to say he can kiss any presidential aspiration goodbye.
 
If he's considering a run then he would almost certainly want to vote for Kavanaugh as the GOP has moved into a tribal/pro-Trump area where voting against Trump would be disqualifying.

You can't out Trump Trump, can you? Kumquat would definitely run for reelection, won't it be better to take a traditional conservative position to beat him? That's got to be your only chance. You ain't going to out crazy him. A republican candidates only hope is to catch the traditional conservatives/republicans and people who by then are tired of Trump and his charade. In addition to keeping their fingers crossed that the Muller report at least leaves enough doubt.
 
Because the Senate is heavily tilted towards red states. There aren’t really any ‘blue state’ R aside from Collins and she is in that position because of a wacky, heavily red CD there and street cred built up over the years.


But you can't have the president decided by the popular vote because the poor widdle states would have no voice!
 
You can't out Trump Trump, can you? Kumquat would definitely run for reelection, won't it be better to take a traditional conservative position to beat him? That's got to be your only chance. You ain't going to out crazy him. A republican candidates only hope is to catch the traditional conservatives/republicans and people who by then are tired of Trump and his charade. In addition to keeping their fingers crossed that the Muller report at least leaves enough doubt.

I think Raoul's main point is that such traditional conservatives/republicans are not in the majority in the party anymore, hence you need to hold extreme positions to win a primary. The politics have really swung right over the last 20 years in the GOP.
 
But you can't have the president decided by the popular vote because the poor widdle states would have no voice!

This is something that will never change as this represents the core of a federalist system. Changing this would mean changing the entire foundation of the country. Ultimately this is why the speaker of the house in 3rd in line to the presidency and not the senate majority leader.
 
Because the Senate is heavily tilted towards red states. There aren’t really any ‘blue state’ R aside from Collins and she is in that position because of a wacky, heavily red CD there and street cred built up over the years.



LA County has 10 million people and is a small subset of the population of California's population of nearly 40m, for which it has two US Senators.

The states of WY, AK, ND, SD, MT, ID, NH, and WV...collectively have less people than LA county and yet get 7 times more Senate representation as the state of California. Sheer lunacy.
 
I think Raoul's main point is that such traditional conservatives/republicans are not in the majority in the party anymore, hence you need to hold extreme positions to win a primary. The politics have really swung right over the last 20 years in the GOP.

I know, I am not disagreeing with him on the Republican party gradually converting into a Trumpian party. However, if a candidate is thinking of running in 2020 republican primaries, he/she cannot hope to run on the Trumpian agenda and hope to beat Trump. So, he/she will have to believe (or hold out hope) that folks will come back to there traditional conservative/republican position. Otherwise they got no chance in hell.