US Politics

berbatrick said:
I don't know how many ways to put this.

Hillary's performance among independents was better than Obama's, and she lost and he won. Her campaign was centred around moderate Republicans and ideological moderates uniting for an already-great America against Trump's uncouth anger.
It failed to turn out base voters, notably African-American turnout went down in swing states, and union households went 50-50 for her and Trump.
Click to expand...

Its generally problematic to compare her to Obama in this regard since Obama wasn't running against Trump in the climate of 2016 - he was instead running against a corporate Republican with his own flaws in the climate of 2012. The overarching principle however is that you need an appropriate balance of both base and independents to win the Presidency. There are far more independent voters than there are base voters for either party so if you cede the independents & middle ground to your opponent, while not having sufficient base support to offset that, then you are virtually guaranteed to lose.
 
Last edited:
Its important to remember that independents are not necessarily "centrists" or in the middle between Dem and Rep. They represent by far the widest range of individual beliefs to the far left and far right of either party on some issues. You have some independents that are more progressive than Bernie, some independents that are libertarians and some with just a mix of beliefs that don't coincide with either party platforms.

For instance I have one friend who believes it should be over 60% tax rate for anyone with net worth over 10 million but also strongly opposes unions among other eccentric beliefs. I have another who strongly supports most progressive issues but is also a hardcore defender of gun rights. Will never vote for gun control.

There is no "average independent" or "median independent" if that makes sense.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Its important to remember that independents are not necessarily "centrists" or in the middle between Dem and Rep. They represent by far the widest range of individual beliefs to the far left and far right of either party on some issues. You have some independents that are more progressive than Bernie, some independents that are libertarians and some with just a mix of beliefs that don't coincide with either party platforms.
Click to expand...

Right but the people more progressive than bernie will never vote for a republican. So maybe we need a better term for the different groups but the point is that any group of people willing to vote for either party is ideologically in between the two parties.
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Its important to remember that independents are not necessarily "centrists" or in the middle between Dem and Rep. They represent by far the widest range of individual beliefs to the far left and far right of either party on some issues. You have some independents that are more progressive than Bernie, some independents that are libertarians and some with just a mix of beliefs that don't coincide with either party platforms.

For instance I have one friend who believes it should be over 60% tax rate for anyone with net worth over 10 million but also strongly opposes unions among other eccentric beliefs. I have another who strongly supports most progressive issues but is also a hardcore defender of gun rights. Will never vote for gun control.

There is no "average independent" or "median independent" if that makes sense.
Click to expand...

Agreed...independents can literally be anywhere on the map (although they frequently seem to coagulate in the middle because they could vote for either party).

Another misperperction is that Sanders voters in 2016 were Dem base voters - when the reality is that traditional Dem base voters (a coalition of largely women and minorities) are different from the liberal/progressives who emerged in Sanders' camp in 2016. The latter may become the Dem base going forward but they weren't the base in the last general election and for all the general elections going back since Bill Clinton won in 92.
 
Eboue said:
Right but the people more progressive than bernie will never vote for a republican. So maybe we need a better term for the different groups but the point is that any group of people willing to vote for either party is ideologically in between the two parties.
Click to expand...


I think any deeper analysis has to split independents into three groups - centrist inds, progressive inds and libertarian inds. The progressive and libertarian Inds differ from the Democrat and Republican bases because they also have no problem not voting for the Dem or Rep candidate whereas self-identified D or R voters will always vote for their nominee no matter what. So at a very general level I think we have to consider at least five different major groups
 
Raoul said:
Agreed...independents can literally be anywhere on the map (although they frequently seem to coagulate in the middle because they could vote for either party).

Another misperperction is that Sanders voters in 2016 were Dem base voters - when the reality is that traditional Dem base voters (a coalition of largely women and minorities) are different from the liberal/progressives who emerged in Sanders' camp in 2016. The latter may become the Dem base going forward but they weren't the base in the last general election and for all the general elections going back since Bill Clinton won in 92.
Click to expand...

Mostly agree with this but I'd say Obama's coalition differed in some very significant ways to Clinton in 1992 but I'll have to get back to this later
 
oneniltothearsenal said:
Mostly agree with this but I'd say Obama's coalition differed in some very significant ways to Clinton in 1992 but I'll have to get back to this later
Click to expand...

I agree that it differed. In many ways it was a hybrid of the old and the new in that he incorporated most of the old school Bill Clinton coalition and added a healthy dose of emerging progressives by way of his small donor funded 2008 campaign, which has now taken off through Sanders' 2016 campaign and a growing number of congressional Dems.
 
It is genuinely astounding that Marco Rubio still has a political career after his presidential campaign.
 
Trump must be going bonkers right about now watching Obama on every news channel (including Fox) talking as if he's still POTUS.
 
"If you thought elections don't matter I hope these last two years have corrected that impression" :lol:
 
Adisa said:
Very surprised he was that forthright in his criticism.
Click to expand...

Seems to be very well timed too. Don’t know if it was always the/his plan to save the criticism until the midterms or that they’re smelling blood.

Of course we should be careful and try not to drool over everything that the magical saviour of the free world and the rest of the universe and beyond a.k.a Mr. Obama says, but I think it’s of tremendous importance that a former president speaks out on this subject:

 
Red Dreams said:
what will it take for Perez to say the DNC is for single payer?
Click to expand...

There needs to be more pressure from within the party for it to change platform. I'm guessing there is a 50/50 chance they will officially change the position before the 2020 convention.
 
Imagine thinking the only working class in America is flyover racist factory workers.

The poor under-eulogised black, hispanic, Arab, gay and trans people living in constant tangible fear for their rights (nay lives) under an openly White Nationalist Presidency, should’ve thought about that before they recklessly expected Bernie Bro ideologues to give a shit...
 
Last edited:
Mockney said:
Imagine thinking the only working class in America is flyover racist factory workers.

The poor under-eulogised black, hispanic, Arab, gay and trans people living in constant tangible fear for their rights (nay lives) under an openly White Nationalist Presidency, should’ve thought about that before they recklessly expected Bernie Bro ideologues to give a shit...
Click to expand...

Bernie's campaign promises: reversing miscegenation, banning Spanish, and jailing all Muslims, were indeed a huge threat to those groups.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.