UPDATED!!! United vs Top 6 - An Injury/Availability Analysis - Still Happy With 6th?

[MonkeysMagic]

I have two huge misgivings about ETH: one being the poor passing of the team, and the second being structural set up that allows opposition so many attempts on goal.

Granted both can be improved with his first 11 on the pitch but personally I don't believe it will to the extent that Utd can compete with City/Liv because the only way to win 32+ games is by dominating possession, denying opp chances and improving your chances of winning game after game.

 

[TomSkalle]

Thanks @TomSkalle

Have a lovely Valentine’s Day <3

What eye evidence do you see that contradicts Martinez playing 26% of available minutes or every single defender bar Dalot being below 50%?

Genuinely what do you see about our player availability that could have fixed our problems this season?

You keep doing alot of work trying to prove that this team isnt as bad as they look.
And i admire your positivity, but im not built that way.
I have seen just about all the games under ETH, and its alot of moving parts thats not working with this squad and how this manager is trying to set them up from game to game.
And abcense of certain players isnt even close to explaining the mess i see out there from week to week.

And thats about it.

(PS. I wont respond to BS, because apparently im a newb on this forum and can only post 5 posts a day.)

 

[BenitoSTARR]

I have two huge misgivings about ETH: one being the poor passing of the team, and the second being structural set up that allows opposition so many attempts on goal.

Granted both can be improved with his first 11 on the pitch but personally I don't believe it will to the extent that Utd can compete with City/Liv because the only way to win 32+ games is by dominating possession, denying opp chances and improving your chances of winning game after game.

So would you barometer of success be now more of the squad is available that you’d like to see us have more possession and less chances conceded?

 

[TheReligion]

You keep doing alot of work trying to prove that this team isnt as bad as they look.
And i admire your positivity, but im not built that way.
I have seen just about all the games under ETH, and its alot of moving parts thats not working with this squad and how this manager is trying to set them up from game to game.
And abcense of certain players isnt even close to explaining the mess i see out there from week to week.

And thats about it.

When did you take your coaching badges?

They are quite expensive from memory.

 

[KeanoMagicHat]

Yeah the 0 GD is a concern.

And you’re right it’s weird it’s like something changed in the last 3 games.

Yeah that's your main point but nobody forced Ten Hag to keep playing the same way despite not having the players, or to start Antony and McTominay and expect good results.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

You keep doing alot of work trying to prove that this team isnt as bad as they look.
And i admire your positivity, but im not built that way.
I have seen just about all the games under ETH, and its alot of moving parts thats not working with this squad and how this manager is trying to set them up from game to game.
And abcense of certain players isnt even close to explaining the mess i see out there from week to week.

And thats about it.

On the contrary my dear Tom.

I think the team we’ve been putting out is exactly as bad as we all think. I think we have a serious personnel issue that has had us serving up shite on the regular. The squad we have just isn’t quite right for the football we want to play going forward. But Ten Hag has worked with them to get a version of that out of them. It’s not great.

I also acknowledge that the players we had available aren’t able to perform consistently at at top 4 or title challenging level. I don’t think any manager in world football could get that group of Dalot Maguire, Evans Lindelof playing out from the back expertly and closing a gap between themselves and midfield with McTominay ahead of them. But we’ve still plodded along keeping ourselves within touching distance of top 4/5.

And I don’t hate any of these players I think they’ve played their hearts out to get us to 6th but they’re at their limits of what they can do. They lack the technical and physical abilities to dominate possession and play high up the pitch and make the recovery runs etc. They just aren’t built for it. And to a degree Ten Hag has made sacrifices in his ideal play. The lack of availability of consistent options has meant having to create a Frankenstein’s monster of players again trying to play a specific brand of football.

If he abandons his ideology it undermines him and the media and fans would say he’s not playing the Ajax way or this way or that way. If he persists he’s stubborn or he’s playing too rigid and ignoring blah blah.

However there are “green shoots” in that I do think we have a very competitive first XI and the likes of Garnacho, Højlund, Mainoo coming through and when fit we have a side that may be 2/3 first XI players away from being able to do what I’ve spoken about quite well. So we’ll see how it goes.

But for me the availability of his best XI (something most of us appear to agree on) is the biggest issue of the season. If we had these problems with the injruy record and squads of City, Arsenal or Liverpool I’d be incandescent.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

@TomSkalle its ok you can respond tomorrow look forward to it.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Yeah that's your main point but nobody forced Ten Hag to keep playing the same way despite not having the players, or to start Antony and McTominay and expect good results.

Ok so how would you have had Ten Hag play that would have achieved better results with the players we’ve had available?

 

[Berbasbullet]

Fair play OP has put in some excellent posts and debated in a positive manner. Refreshing to see.

 

[TomSkalle]

On the contrary my dear Tom.

I think the team we’ve been putting out is exactly as bad as we all think. I think we have a serious personnel issue that has had us serving up shite on the regular. The squad we have just isn’t quite right for the football we want to play going forward. But Ten Hag has worked with them to get a version of that out of them. It’s not great.

I also acknowledge that the players we had available aren’t able to perform consistently at at top 4 or title challenging level. I don’t think any manager in world football could get that group of Dalot Maguire, Evans Lindelof playing out from the back expertly and closing a gap between themselves and midfield with McTominay ahead of them. But we’ve still plodded along keeping ourselves within touching distance of top 4/5.

And I don’t hate any of these players I think they’ve played their hearts out to get us to 6th but they’re at their limits of what they can do. They lack the technical and physical abilities to dominate possession and play high up the pitch and make the recovery runs etc. They just aren’t built for it. And to a degree Ten Hag has made sacrifices in his ideal play. The lack of availability of consistent options has meant having to create a Frankenstein’s monster of players again trying to play a specific brand of football.

If he abandons his ideology it undermines him and the media and fans would say he’s not playing the Ajax way or this way or that way. If he persists he’s stubborn or he’s playing too rigid and ignoring blah blah.

However there are “green shoots” in that I do think we have a very competitive first XI and the likes of Garnacho, Højlund, Mainoo coming through and when fit we have a side that may be 2/3 first XI players away from being able to do what I’ve spoken about quite well. So we’ll see how it goes.

But for me the availability of his best XI (something most of us appear to agree on) is the biggest issue of the season. If we had these problems with the injruy record and squads of City, Arsenal or Liverpool I’d be incandescent.

You know it doesnt matter right.
We will end up exactly where we deserve on the table, with exactly the goal difference we deserve. (+/-)
What you need to ask yourself is if you would have wanted to give ETH a new chance with the checkbook and a new season.

Im guessing you are positive, but im negative just because he hasnt shown anything that makes me belive that he are the one to take us to the next lvl.
I was all for him when he came, and i was all for giving him all the time he needed to get this train back on track, but he doesnt even seem to be able to get the team structure right.

I really hope he goes on a winning streak and make changes so we actually looks like a good team from week too week, but i dont believe he will.
So i want a new start this summer.
I hope they allready are looking for a new manager tbh.
I have nothing against ETH as a person, but this isnt a job where we can let managers train for the job.
Its that simple.

 

[NLunited]

Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best. We were terrible and had the same faults at the start of the season with a full squad. We were also quite poor and got some real hammerings for periods last season. We won a mickey mouse cup with an easy draw and where most teams rest their main players. We have spent £400m and don't really seem to have got any better. Some complicated analysis and loads of assumptions don't alter the fact that we havent really progressed. We can't control games, and that doesnt mean that you have 90% possession but you can can control shape of the match and of the opposition. Against Villa, straight after our goal there were two phases where a Villa player wa

Its a highly selective analysis and ignores the fact that several players were chosen ahead of others, not least Antony, Maguire and McT who are not listed in the 'strongest team'. So to be clear, most people happy for us to be garbage, playing terrible football, unless we have every player available? After spending $400m and having highest wage bill in league. its truly staggering how low expectations are now at this club

It is an excellent analysis. You can argue what our strongest team is, but there is a pretty good consensus on what it is.

You are deflecting with mentioning McT etc: he was starting often because we were missing our starters Casemiro and Mainoo.

It is staggering how people expect us to challenge for PL with gaping holes in the squad and a flawed club structure. That‘s delusional.

 

[AFC NimbleThumb]

Are you asking have I analysed every team in the PL injuries in each game they’ve played relative to one another? On a Wednesday?

No

I’m not going to look on the micro basis of game by game when if we’re being reasonable the % minutes share is a decent metric to look at how often the best players have played through injury/rotation etc.

I think you’re being harsh on the options available to Ten Hag when Shaw came off. Swap Dalots flank and we lose the overlap. We also don’t score the winner.

I agree the post is a good starting point and hopefully will encourage others to explore the questions they are sending my way.

At least now I think it’s clear there are issues beyond a normal expected level of disruption that we have dealt with relative to other sides.

The question was more rhetorical than anything, of course you haven’t. The point is that with very little digging, you’ll find multiple examples of games where the opposition had more absences in those game from their first team squad than we did. That is more poignant information.

To tell the full tale of our results you need to take the minutes share of the opposition on the day. How exactly do the stats you’ve given explain a game like Bournemouth where they had more first teamers absent on that day than we did? What exactly does the fact we’ve consistently had more injuries than other Top 6 teams tell us about games we didn’t win against Newcastle & Spurs when on those days they had more absentees?

We all get the point. ‘United have had more injuries overall than other teams so lack consistency in team choice thus performance’ but as others have pointed out the stats you provide ignore things like EtH choosing not to play certain players.

I’ve not read every post so maybe some people are but I’m not arguing that injuries haven’t been an issue, simply that they are 1 of many symptoms.

 

[TomSkalle]

It is an excellent analysis. You can argue what our strongest team is, but there is a pretty good consensus on what it is.

You are deflecting with mentioning McT etc: he was starting often because we were missing our starters Casemiro and Mainoo.

It is staggering how people expect us to challenge for PL with gaping holes in the squad and a flawed club structure. That‘s delusional.

I dont think people expect us to challenge for the PL yet. Where do you have that from?
Seriously, i cant remember anybody using that as an argument against ETH.

But we expect us to be solid defensivly, look like like a team, score a set piece and a corner now and then, and have mastered a couple formations aswell.
Press resistant, passing, movement without ball, awerness etc etc
We are not even close to where we should be.

The absence off all the things i have mentioned is available by just whatching the team from week to week.
And that has nothing to do with injuries.
But all to do with how ETH sets up the team.

Edit: Typos, not my language

 

[AFC NimbleThumb]

I know you already got a response but nobody is looking to convince anybody that people should change their mind on ETH or even that people are wrong to want him out. There is no objectively absolute fact with regards to whether ETH should be sacked or retained.

I find that when I try to elaborate On why I’m ok seeing ETH get more time, you get quite weak responses (if any at all) from people who just seem to have an unhealthy rage at the thought of anybody thinking anything other then sack him. I don’t care who wants him sacked or their reasons for wanting it. I understand completely why some people have written him off and do think there is merit to their concerns.

But there have been many things going on during ETH time here that not even previous managers had to handle: And it’s not just “injuries” or “difficult players” or “ownership instability” or “ffp affecting loan options” it’s all this relentlessly going on at the same time. Does that explain the first half of the season and champions league disaster ? I honestly don’t know , but I’m interested to see if it might be now that we seem to be seeing an end to player drama , ownership clarity, forward players building up confidence and injuries clearing up.

Im not going to go over it again, but some of the posters really don’t seem to grasp what Benito is doing with this thread. All they see is information “defending ETH” and are attacking it with mostly ego waffle that amounts to nothing.

All Benito did here was post factual information that clarifys why he feels our injuries have been more of an issue then the teams above us. I know personally how frustrating it is, when you spend all that time putting information together to try to clarify your stance (not prove anybody wrong, but clarify why you feel a certain way) and you get the kind of half arsed sh*te that some have posted.

I’ve lit a candle and said a prayer for Benito.

“Lord …. please grant Benito the gift of patience , tolerance and humility… As he navigates a cesspool of ignorance …::.. Grant Benito the wisdom to call it quits when he inevitably fails and prevent him from getting dragged down a level into tit for tat bollox . Amen”

The way stats are used matters. Here’s some factual information for you. 14 losses in 30-something games. Without any other information at hand do you think a Manchester United manager should be sacked for this? So by your measure I can that above is me posting factual information as to why EtH should get the sack & no one can argue witn it because. . . facts. Come on.

No need to label other supporters as anything just because they don’t see the information the same way you do.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

You know it doesnt matter right.
We will end up exactly where we deserve on the table, with exactly the goal difference we deserve. (+/-)
What you need to ask yourself is if you would have wanted to give ETH a new chance with the checkbook and a new season.

Im guessing you are positive, but im negative just because he hasnt shown anything that makes me belive that he are the one to take us to the next lvl.
I was all for him when he came, and i was all for giving him all the time he needed to get this train back on track, but he doesnt even seem to be able to get the team structure right.

I really hope he goes on a winning streak and make changes so we actually looks like a good team from week too week, but i dont believe he will.
So i want a new start this summer.
I hope they allready are looking for a new manager tbh.
I have nothing against ETH as a person, but this isnt a job where we can let managers train for the job.
Its that simple.

Thanks for using another of your 5 daily posts here (it’s a pain in the arse being a newbie so cheers buddy!)

It does matter, to me at least it does. I came to this site because I like talking about football with fans but that enjoyment has slowly eroded over the last few years so I’ve hidden away in the generals making silly games and playing them while being a judgy sod.

But the only way this site gets better and this fan base gets better is by engaging with each other fairly and openly. So I’m trying.

I will keep my stance on Ten Hag under review as it always is and should be. No manager or player is above the club but give the guy a little break here.

I might turn around in 10 games time and be bellowing for him to be gone. Or I might be delighted or somewhere in between. But I’m open to the idea that based on available evidence things may get better.

I appreciate we have different views on him currently. My positives would be third place first season and a trophy (note singular wouldn’t want to offend anyone) and taking us further than any other club in Europe in terms of all competitions (apart from City but feck them).

Genuine question what structure do you think he can build without key players to build on?
A house needs foundations and ours have been shifting like tectonic plates onto the injury table.

For what it’s worth Tom I think you have an entirely reasonable position I just happen to think the injury situation is worth not throwing him away just yet. Ask me again in 10 games.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

The question was more rhetorical than anything, of course you haven’t. The point is that with very little digging, you’ll find multiple examples of games where the opposition had more absences in those game from their first team squad than we did. That is more poignant information.

To tell the full tale of our results you need to take the minutes share of the opposition on the day. How exactly do the stats you’ve given explain a game like Bournemouth where they had more first teamers absent on that day than we did? What exactly does the fact we’ve consistently had more injuries than other Top 6 teams tell us about games we didn’t win against Newcastle & Spurs when on those days they had more absentees?

We all get the point. ‘United have had more injuries overall than other teams so lack consistency in team choice thus performance’ but as others have pointed out the stats you provide ignore things like EtH choosing not to play certain players.

I’ve not read every post so maybe some people are but I’m not arguing that injuries haven’t been an issue, simply that they are 1 of many symptoms.

Ok so can you not just make that point then?

Anyway yeah we played absolutely shite against Bournemouth. That sometimes happens. Again looking at single data points like that doesn’t help because any team can beat anyone on a given day. Over a season though it’s harder to defy expected returns etc so I’d rather look at longer term trends than debate individual game failures.

We can do that if you want to but probably post match threads are a better place for it?

The stats may ignore it but the context in providing or others are providing that is agreeing with allows for that not to be an issue. I’ve never once claimed that we’ve had serious attacking issues with injury or fitness. I could claim with Højlund but I’m not going to.

I also agree they are one of many symptoms but I happen to feel they are a major issue.

 

[Borys]

Manchester United absences

Manchester City absences

Liverpool absences

Arsenal absences

Tottenham absences

Aston Villa absences

So the numbers for front 4 are:
Garnacho 100%/Antony* 83% - Bruno 100% - Rashford 96%
Hojlund 79%

Why is it different from the OP? I don't think the linked info is true, Eriksen was available for the last 7 games?

 

[BenitoSTARR]

So the numbers for front 4 are:
Garnacho 100%/Antony* 83% - Bruno 100% - Rashford 96%
Hojlund 79%

Why is it different from the OP? I don't think the linked info is true, Eriksen was available for the last 7 games?

The data provided in the OP is minutes in PL as a % of total available minutes.

In short which players have played the most for their clubs.

I’ve not been suggesting the attacking injuries have been our serious issue. Look at defence and midfield.

 

[TomSkalle]

Thanks for using another of your 5 daily posts here (it’s a pain in the arse being a newbie so cheers buddy!)

It does matter, to me at least it does. I came to this site because I like talking about football with fans but that enjoyment has slowly eroded over the last few years so I’ve hidden away in the generals making silly games and playing them while being a judgy sod.

But the only way this site gets better and this fan base gets better is by engaging with each other fairly and openly. So I’m trying.

I will keep my stance on Ten Hag under review as it always is and should be. No manager or player is above the club but give the guy a little break here.

I might turn around in 10 games time and be bellowing for him to be gone. Or I might be delighted or somewhere in between. But I’m open to the idea that based on available evidence things may get better.

I appreciate we have different views on him currently. My positives would be third place first season and a trophy (note singular wouldn’t want to offend anyone) and taking us further than any other club in Europe in terms of all competitions (apart from City but feck them).

Genuine question what structure do you think he can build without key players to build on?
A house needs foundations and ours have been shifting like tectonic plates onto the injury table.

For what it’s worth Tom I think you have an entirely reasonable position I just happen to think the injury situation is worth not throwing him away just yet. Ask me again in 10 games.

Alot of the teams we have met this season have had a good structure even if they cant match our squad player for player. (even with injuries)
You could say he should be measured after he has built his team, but like we have seen just in the 3 last games, i dont think it matters. We won all of them, and we didnt look good in any of them
And to be fair, he has used alot money on transfers allready.

Im just dont with it. Im mentally tired of looking at the players running around as headless chickens every game.
And he is the manager. The man in charge.

So yes, lets agree to disagree.
I wish ETH all the luck, i just dont believe it anymore, and that is his fault tbh.

PS: out of posts, tomorrow it is.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Alot of the teams we have met this season has a good structure even if they cant match our squad player for player. (even with injuries)
You could say he should be measured after he has built his team, but like we have seen just in the 3 last games, i dont think it matters. We won all of them, and we didnt look good in any of them
And to be fair, he has used alot money on transfers allready.

Im just dont with it. Im mentally tired of looking at the players running around as headless chickens every game.
And he is the manager. The man in charge.

So yes, lets agree to disagree.
I wish ETH all the luck, i just dont believe it anymore, and that is his fault tbh.

Those teams usually have players used to playing those positions with consistency in their approach or similar profiles.

We won. We’re building and I’d argue our attacking play has been far better. Consistently getting into dangerous positions.

He’s not responsible for the fees.

And Tom I’m genuinely sorry to hear that you’ve become so disillusioned by our play but I’d ask you give it 10 more games with me. 10 more and then make up your mind.

 

[lex talionis]

The naked eye test tells us everything we need to know as to why we're in 6th place now, but with a puncher's chance of landing what I understand will very likely to be sufficient to get us back into the CL next season, 5th place.

 

[Borninthe80ts]

Excellent post and very well presented. I was asking for some stats like this in another thread just to point out the difference in injuries between the top teams and the effect. Long term injuries to key players will impact any team, especially one trying to implement a new system.
I too try and see the situation we are currently in with all the context that is available to me and variables that have had an effect. For me I’ve never had expectations farther than 3 to 4 months at a time as for so long the club is constantly rocked by some scandal or negativity.

Im just hoping we can have a relatively positive end to the season in relation to performance, league position and being injury free. Wishful thinking maybe but rather that than assume the negative.

I

 

[AFC NimbleThumb]

Anyway yeah we played absolutely shite against Bournemouth. That sometimes happens. Again looking at single data points like that doesn’t help because any team can beat anyone on a given day. Over a season though it’s harder to defy expected returns etc so I’d rather look at longer term trends than debate individual game failures.

We can do that if you want to but probably post match threads are a better place for it?

The stats may ignore it but the context in providing or others are providing that is agreeing with allows for that not to be an issue. I’ve never once claimed that we’ve had serious attacking issues with injury or fitness. I could claim with Højlund but I’m not going to.

I also agree they are one of many symptoms but I happen to feel they are a major issue.

Post match threads are not a better place for an unbiased use of ‘facts’/stats. We’d both rather at longer term trends which is exactly why you were cited Spurs & Newcastle, again both off the top of my head. Crystal Palace, lost 1-0. Palace had 8 first team squad members listed unavailable to our 6 that day. You go through other games we lost/drew & you’ll see multiple first teamers missing for the opposition.

You know exactly what was meant so let’s park the emojis & discuss the points.

Also for someone so particular about data points why are you choosing to compare us to only 5 of 19 data points available?

 

[KeanoMagicHat]

Ok so how would you have had Ten Hag play that would have achieved better results with the players we’ve had available?

The 4-1-4-1 was having us overwhelmed with McTominay as essentially a number 10 in it, Bournemouth and Newcastle for example could have played Amrabat/Mainoo/Fernandes with two deeper midfielders than McTominay was. Limited options on the wing, would have tried to make it up with Sancho if I was in charge, but that's irrelevant now. Rashford was poor but rarely any worse than Antony was to be dropped, while Pellestri probably could have got more minutes than Antony 0 goals/0 assists in 920 mins of PL action.

 

[Zed is not dead]

I have no issue them highlighting those injuries because I’m then happy to show what depth they have to deal with those injuries.

For example Arsenal have been without Timber all season but they’ve had Saliba for 100% of games….

The sad fact is. We’re not currently as good as the best 3 sides in the league. Our squad is quite far off it actually. And on top of that we’ve had more rotation issues and injuries that have left us with a less stable side composed of our best XI compared to all others.

And so yeah that does have some impact and it’s worth noting.

I think this is the hardest truth for people to accept here.
We’re not a top team anymore and haven’t been for a long time.

It is quite delusional to think this season was the one where we’d be rolling over everyone, and winning comfortably against every opposition with spectacular football.
Our team is currently not good enough, plus some bad luck with lots of injuries, off field issues and disciplinary issues and a change of ownership. All in the span of 6 months.

Grinding results against better teams and some good although inconsistent displays against lesser teams is the realistic way to go about this season.

And this has nothing to do with standards. I can expect my donkey to get a medal at a show jumping, it doesn’t mean he’ll get one

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

So the numbers for front 4 are:
Garnacho 100%/Antony* 83% - Bruno 100% - Rashford 96%
Hojlund 79%

Why is it different from the OP? I don't think the linked info is true, Eriksen was available for the last 7 games?

He presented it as percentage of minutes played compared to total team minutes in the league. Which is why I don’t love the graphic, because it doesn’t factor in times where players were simply not picked, or even in Varanes weird case not even in the squad.

The 3 obvious main injuries have been to Shaw, Casemiro, and Martinez. All 3 have missed significant time no doubt about it and each is pretty important in their position. Mount is the other but I think he ends up being a sub anyways as that god awful setup with him and Bruno we started the year with was suicidal. But do I think that 3 injuries to starters is grounds for a complete lack of cohesive play and endless horrid performances over more than half of a season? Not really, but Ten Hag relies so heavily especially on Martinez for his “principles” to work that if the possible best ball playing CB in the world isn’t available then he completely scraps the ideas and moves to pragmatism (and quite frankly he isn’t good at pragmatism, as shown by our pretty consistent ropey defending when protecting a lead). I don’t want a manager that requires a perfectly fit first choice XI for his plan to work, because majority of the year you’ll have at least 1 player not fit in the squad. I’d rather employ a system that still is drilled in functionally to an entire squad to play the same even if the best players aren’t available, and if we lose or play poorly because we miss chances with reserve attackers or have mistakes at the back because Maguire or Evans is there instead of Martinez then so be it.

Sure at this point we aren’t sacking him until summer, and if we suddenly show a better structure and consistent way of playing in the run in with everyone mostly fit then I’ll be open to changing my mind. But even in our recent run of results it’s largely been end to end/high variance stuff where we’ve come out on top because our forwards finished chances while the opposition has missed sitters. Thats a viable way to play if you’re a midtable club sure, but I think all of us aspire to get back to the top and it’s not really sustainable doing that

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

I think this is the hardest truth for people to accept here.
We’re not a top team anymore and haven’t been for a long time.

It is quite delusional to think this season was the one where we’d be rolling over everyone, and winning comfortably against every opposition with spectacular football.
Our team is currently not good enough, plus some bad luck with lots of injuries, off field issues and disciplinary issues and a change of ownership. All in the span of 6 months.

Grinding results against better teams and some good although inconsistent displays against lesser teams is the realistic way to go about this season.

And this has nothing to do with standards. I can expect my donkey to get a medal at a show jumping, it doesn’t mean he’ll get one

I really don’t think many expected us to roll over teams this year. Preseason expectations for most were UCL top 2 in groups, a good cup run, and top 4 in the league while showing signs of progress style wise.

 

[KeanoMagicHat]

I think this is the hardest truth for people to accept here.
We’re not a top team anymore and haven’t been for a long time.

It is quite delusional to think this season was the one where we’d be rolling over everyone, and winning comfortably against every opposition with spectacular football.
Our team is currently not good enough, plus some bad luck with lots of injuries, off field issues and disciplinary issues and a change of ownership. All in the span of 6 months.

Grinding results against better teams and some good although inconsistent displays against lesser teams is the realistic way to go about this season.

And this has nothing to do with standards. I can expect my donkey to get a medal at a show jumping, it doesn’t mean he’ll get one

We finished third last year, got the FA Cup final, won the League Cup, semi-finals of Europa League. Beat Barcelona, Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal over the season. Nobody was expecting to beat City and be going for the treble, but fairly reasonable then to expect the team not to lose 9 in 15 games or whatever it was and finish last in a CL group?

Leeway is to be given based on performances and results and if Ten Hag can say finish 5th from here, or even stay 6th but with a good points total well ahead of 7th, and performances continue to improve with his first 11, then he may have done enough to keep his job for another year.

It's not to do with being a 'top team'. 5th or 6th with context like considerable injuries can be acceptable (look at Liverpool in their injury-hit seasons). But 9th or 10th can never be (which is where we were hanging out before this recent upturn in fortunes).

 

[Zed is not dead]

I really don’t think many expected us to roll over teams this year. Preseason expectations for most were UCL top 2 in groups, a good cup run, and top 4 in the league while showing signs of progress style wise.

If you read most post match thread, people really expect us to play like prime Barcelona

 

[Zed is not dead]

We finished third last year, got the FA Cup final, won the League Cup, semi-finals of Europa League. Beat Barcelona, Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal over the season. Nobody was expecting to beat City and be going for the treble, but fairly reasonable then to expect the team not to lose 9 in 15 games or whatever it was and finish last in a CL group?

Leeway is to be given based on performances and results and if Ten Hag can say finish 5th from here, or even stay 6th but with a good points total well ahead of 7th, and performances continue to improve with his first 11, then he may have done enough to keep his job for another year.

It's not to do with being a 'top team'. 5th or 6th with context like considerable injuries can be acceptable (look at Liverpool in their injury-hit seasons). But 9th or 10th can never be (which is where we were hanging out before this recent upturn in fortunes).

The way I see it, we overperfomed last season.
This season we’re back to a more regular level, with a team that can at best be 3rd under the right circumstances.
With shite circumstances such as what we experienced, well best you can do is try not to fall too hard.

 

[Demon Barber]

Excellent thread @BenitoSTARR especially given the time and effort it must have taken.

People can argue some parts of it but not the over riding point… we’ve had a lot of injuries, especially to some key players.

The other thing this thread points out is a handful of apparent United fans (and two in particular… the same as EVERY thread they post in) are just miserable, argumentative xxxxxxs

I agree with this. Superb thread and statistical analysis. @BenitoSTARR thank you and well done.

Now, if only you could do a comparative analysis for kick-off times, days of the week, home v away, colours of boots worn and weather conditions. I'd like it on my desk tomorrow morning.

 

[Laurencio]

I applaud your effort to use a statistical analysis to understand our issues, but I believe your conclusion is flawed. % of minutes played does not translate into % of minutes available. What you're proving here is that the team isn't well constructed, that only a handful of players are nailed on starters, and that we rotate a lot - a point you concede when looking at Man City. You also mention that you can't speculate as to why a player wasn't picked and that you can't base it on club announced injuries, because that would be speculation not backed up by data. The problem with that, is that you presuppose that we have a best XI and that whenever available our "best" players will play. Which is also speculation, and arguably a more significant assumption.

Injuries are reported, and data is available to see how many matches a player actually misses because of injuries. The data supports that five players have been out injured for a significant amount of time. Allowing for one game "recovery" in the league per injury - 90 minutes matches not withstanding.

Tyrell Malacia - 0% available
Mason Mount - 21% available
Lisandro Martinez - 29.2% available
Luke Shaw - 37.5% available
Casemiro - 44.8% available

A number of players in your list have not been injured for nearly as much as suggested by their selections.

Garnacho - 100% available
Varane - 83% available
Hojlund - 70% available
Mainoo - 58.3%

Varane was left out of the squad for non-injury related reasons twice. There is an argument to be had as to whether the Casemiro, Martinez, Shaw trio is key to our entire team structure, but injury wise your XI actually looks like this - suspensions are ignored, because honestly that is self inflicted. 100% is indicated by no percentage added.

Onana
Dalot - Varane 83% - Martinez 29% - Shaw 37%
Casemiro 44% - Mainoo 58.3%
Garnacho - Bruno - Rashford
Hojlund 70​

Now, not all of these players were significant last season, when we finished third, so it might be important to look at how much those players have been available this season - and our backups to key positions.

Scott McT 100%
Antony 91% - two matches special leave
Amrabat 87.5%
Eriksen 75%
Maguire 75%
Martial 66%

Which shows that there is primarily one position we've not had the personell to cover because of injuries - which is left back. The XI suggested in OP with second choice backups for long term injuries:

Onana
Dalot Varane Martinez/Maguire Shaw/Malacia
Casemiro/Amrabat Mainoo/Eriksen
Garnacho Bruno Rashford
Hojlund/Martial
​

A well built squad should be able to handle all but the left back issues. Recruitment has clearly been a problem, but at the same time there are players here that should be performing better on the basis of previous performances and ability (arguably a topic for another thread). Squad management is also an issue that could be, and probably should be, scrutinzed.

 

[Bilbo]

I just happen to think the injury situation is worth not throwing him away just yet. Ask me again in 10 games.

For me we are at the point where what happens in the next 10 games doesn't even matter that much.

We've seen some serious highs under Ten Hag. The period last season in and around the victory over Barcelona and the Cup final win showed a serious amount of potential. We looked a more intelligent and resilient side than at any point since Ferguson IMO.

We've also seen some major lows. Our loss record this season is unacceptable. Finishing bottom in a relatively straight forward CL group was something I didn't think he'd survive. His record against our rivals is poor.

The meat in this argument is in the mitigating circumstances for some or all of the above, and that's why this thread holds value. There ARE mitigating circumstances. Whether people see those as enough is down to personal opinion. Those who choose to ignore them completely are not worth listening to.

Going back to my first sentence, the reason the next few games dont really matter is because we've seen those peaks and troughs already. I would caveat this by acknowledging that we should always be judging and evaluating our position, but at this point in the process you either believe that he is going to be able to build a winning side, or you don't. You either want him as manager going into this new era for the club, or you don't.

Personally I believe that our strong first season under him is a better reflection of his true ability than this chaotic second one. I'm in for giving him a third season come what may.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

Post match threads are not a better place for an unbiased use of ‘facts’/stats. We’d both rather at longer term trends which is exactly why you were cited Spurs & Newcastle, again both off the top of my head. Crystal Palace, lost 1-0. Palace had 8 first team squad members listed unavailable to our 6 that day. You go through other games we lost/drew & you’ll see multiple first teamers missing for the opposition.

You know exactly what was meant so let’s park the emojis & discuss the points.

Also for someone so particular about data points why are you choosing to compare us to only 5 of 19 data points available?

But you’re asking me to analyse why we lost one particular game? That’s not a trend it’s a single data point?

Are you asking me why has our club lost football matches and not been as consistent because I feel like I’ve answered that?

Genuinely I don’t. I hope you can see by the effort I’ve been putting in all of today I’m arguing here in the best of faiths.

Im comparing us to 5 because:

1. We have more points than the other 14 so it doesn’t make sense to worry about why we might be better than them.
2. Every discussion I’ve had has been pretty much “but spurs have had more injuries” etc so why would I discuss Crystal Palace?
3. Have you tried doing what I’ve just done today? It takes a long time.
4. You’re more than welcome to do the rest of the league I’d be genuinely interested to read it.
5. I want to see how far off we are of the teams that have performed better than us so far and if there is any argument to be had supporting the idea that other teams have had it harder than us. The selection minutes would suggest the answer is no.

The 4-1-4-1 was having us overwhelmed with McTominay as essentially a number 10 in it, Bournemouth and Newcastle for example could have played Amrabat/Mainoo/Fernandes with two deeper midfielders than McTominay was. Limited options on the wing, would have tried to make it up with Sancho if I was in charge, but that's irrelevant now. Rashford was poor but rarely any worse than Antony was to be dropped, while Pellestri probably could have got more minutes than Antony 0 goals/0 assists in 920 mins of PL action.

Your plan is to play a teenager just back from a 3 month injury in back to back PL games from 26/11, 2/12, then 6/12 and 9/12?

Would you say we’ve been more secure with Amrabat? Do you not think the fact we conceded from 2 crosses and a corner means the issue might’ve been more than just move McTominay a bit deeper?

How do you make it up with Sancho?He’s just called you a liar in public what do you do?

Dropping your top scorer from last season what do you think the optics of that are like for the papers, dressing room etc?

What did you see of Pellistri that made you think he wasn’t also out of his depth?

It’s easy for us behind our screens to think of the perfect chat up line to get Sancho back on side etc but the reality is these are humans making real time decisions and choices in a complex environment.

I think this is the hardest truth for people to accept here.
We’re not a top team anymore and haven’t been for a long time.

It is quite delusional to think this season was the one where we’d be rolling over everyone, and winning comfortably against every opposition with spectacular football.
Our team is currently not good enough, plus some bad luck with lots of injuries, off field issues and disciplinary issues and a change of ownership. All in the span of 6 months.

Grinding results against better teams and some good although inconsistent displays against lesser teams is the realistic way to go about this season.

And this has nothing to do with standards. I can expect my donkey to get a medal at a show jumping, it doesn’t mean he’ll get one

It’s a shit thing but it is the case. Nothing about our footballing set up has screamed elite for a while now. Hopefully that is changing.

He presented it as percentage of minutes played compared to total team minutes in the league. Which is why I don’t love the graphic, because it doesn’t factor in times where players were simply not picked, or even in Varanes weird case not even in the squad.

The 3 obvious main injuries have been to Shaw, Casemiro, and Martinez. All 3 have missed significant time no doubt about it and each is pretty important in their position. Mount is the other but I think he ends up being a sub anyways as that god awful setup with him and Bruno we started the year with was suicidal. But do I think that 3 injuries to starters is grounds for a complete lack of cohesive play and endless horrid performances over more than half of a season? Not really, but Ten Hag relies so heavily especially on Martinez for his “principles” to work that if the possible best ball playing CB in the world isn’t available then he completely scraps the ideas and moves to pragmatism (and quite frankly he isn’t good at pragmatism, as shown by our pretty consistent ropey defending when protecting a lead). I don’t want a manager that requires a perfectly fit first choice XI for his plan to work, because majority of the year you’ll have at least 1 player not fit in the squad. I’d rather employ a system that still is drilled in functionally to an entire squad to play the same even if the best players aren’t available, and if we lose or play poorly because we miss chances with reserve attackers or have mistakes at the back because Maguire or Evans is there instead of Martinez then so be it.

Sure at this point we aren’t sacking him until summer, and if we suddenly show a better structure and consistent way of playing in the run in with everyone mostly fit then I’ll be open to changing my mind. But even in our recent run of results it’s largely been end to end/high variance stuff where we’ve come out on top because our forwards finished chances while the opposition has missed sitters. Thats a viable way to play if you’re a midtable club sure, but I think all of us aspire to get back to the top and it’s not really sustainable doing that

Has it created discussion? Have I shied away from any contextual discussion?

I’ve addressed every point raised.

If Mount ends up being the sub then who replaces him in the starting XI? Mainoo? In which case there is another long term absentee first XI player.

I’m glad you’re open minded. We’ll see what happens. We won’t be able to play like a top team until we have the personnel and squad of a top team though. We’ll be able to play like a top team when our best players are available and when they aren’t with lower quality alternatives we’ll struggle a bit.

I really don’t think many expected us to roll over teams this year. Preseason expectations for most were UCL top 2 in groups, a good cup run, and top 4 in the league while showing signs of progress style wise.

Agree with this. But expectations need to be reviewed in context.

If I wanted to finish the London Marathon in 4 hours but pulled my hamstring at the start of the race and then 2/3 into it id be happy to just finish it.

We finished third last year, got the FA Cup final, won the League Cup, semi-finals of Europa League. Beat Barcelona, Man City, Liverpool, Spurs, Arsenal over the season. Nobody was expecting to beat City and be going for the treble, but fairly reasonable then to expect the team not to lose 9 in 15 games or whatever it was and finish last in a CL group?

Leeway is to be given based on performances and results and if Ten Hag can say finish 5th from here, or even stay 6th but with a good points total well ahead of 7th, and performances continue to improve with his first 11, then he may have done enough to keep his job for another year.

It's not to do with being a 'top team'. 5th or 6th with context like considerable injuries can be acceptable (look at Liverpool in their injury-hit seasons). But 9th or 10th can never be (which is where we were hanging out before this recent upturn in fortunes).

We performed really well last year. Yeah must have had a good manager then. Wonder what’s changed?

Teasing aside I agree with your broader point here and appreciate you taking the injuries into consideration to come to a balanced view. So good post in my book.

The way I see it, we overperfomed last season.
This season we’re back to a more regular level, with a team that can at best be 3rd under the right circumstances.
With shite circumstances such as what we experienced, well best you can do is try not to fall too hard.

I think we are a CL/Europa side with everyone fit. Which has been our level the past 6+ years.

With the injuries we’ve had honestly I feel like we’re better understood as a good mid table club.

I agree with this. Superb thread and statistical analysis. @BenitoSTARR thank you and well done.

Now, if only you could do a comparative analysis for kick-off times, days of the week, home v away, colours of boots worn and weather conditions. I'd like it on my desk tomorrow morning.

Haha cheers!

 

[BenitoSTARR]

I applaud your effort to use a statistical analysis to understand our issues, but I believe your conclusion is flawed. % of minutes played does not translate into % of minutes available. What you're proving here is that the team isn't well constructed, that only a handful of players are nailed on starters, and that we rotate a lot - a point you concede when looking at Man City. You also mention that you can't speculate as to why a player wasn't picked and that you can't base it on club announced injuries, because that would be speculation not backed up by data. The problem with that, is that you presuppose that we have a best XI and that whenever available our "best" players will play. Which is also speculation, and arguably a more significant assumption.

Injuries are reported, and data is available to see how many matches a player actually misses because of injuries. The data supports that five players have been out injured for a significant amount of time. Allowing for one game "recovery" in the league per injury - 90 minutes matches not withstanding.

Tyrell Malacia - 0% available
Mason Mount - 21% available
Lisandro Martinez - 29.2% available
Luke Shaw - 37.5% available
Casemiro - 44.8% available

A number of players in your list have not been injured for nearly as much as suggested by their selections.

Garnacho - 100% available
Varane - 83% available
Hojlund - 70% available
Mainoo - 58.3%

Varane was left out of the squad for non-injury related reasons twice. There is an argument to be had as to whether the Casemiro, Martinez, Shaw trio is key to our entire team structure, but injury wise your XI actually looks like this - suspensions are ignored, because honestly that is self inflicted. 100% is indicated by no percentage added.

Onana
Dalot - Varane 83% - Martinez 29% - Shaw 37%
Casemiro 44% - Mainoo 58.3%
Garnacho - Bruno - Rashford
Hojlund 70​

Now, not all of these players were significant last season, when we finished third, so it might be important to look at how much those players have been available this season - and our backups to key positions.

Scott McT 100%
Antony 91% - two matches special leave
Amrabat 87.5%
Eriksen 75%
Maguire 75%
Martial 66%

Which shows that there is primarily one position we've not had the personell to cover because of injuries - which is left back. The XI suggested in OP with second choice backups for long term injuries:

Onana
Dalot Varane Martinez/Maguire Shaw/Malacia
Casemiro/Amrabat Mainoo/Eriksen
Garnacho Bruno Rashford
Hojlund/Martial
​

A well built squad should be able to handle all but the left back issues. Recruitment has clearly been a problem, but at the same time there are players here that should be performing better on the basis of previous performances and ability (arguably a topic for another thread). Squad management is also an issue that could be, and probably should be, scrutinzed.

Lovely post and I applaud you for it.

When I have time tomorrow I’ll respond with the care this post deserves but thank you for providing such an insightful post!

 

[Valencia Shin Crosses]

If you read most post match thread, people really expect us to play like prime Barcelona

To be fair, both the match thread and post match thread are mostly just emotional vent threads, good or bad.

 

[Chumpsbechumps]

The way stats are used matters. Here’s some factual information for you. 14 losses in 30-something games. Without any other information at hand do you think a Manchester United manager should be sacked for this? So by your measure I can that above is me posting factual information as to why EtH should get the sack & no one can argue witn it because. . . facts. Come on.

No need to label other supporters as anything just because they don’t see the information the same way you do.

Nobody disputes our win/loss record, but that seems to be the only stat some people can understand or will discuss. This thread adds more context to those results with factual information. You can choose to ignore the information because it somewhat threatens what you want to believe , but it doesn’t change the informations relevance.

Most of the more emotive lads cant or won’t discuss the information, they just keep telling us how they feel and quoting completely different things that ETH is doing wrong. It’s ridiculous.

This really isn’t rocket science and some of you are still banging a drum of nonsense, quite often arguing things nobody is saying.

 

[alexthelion]

I don't know why poeple constantly feel this need to downplay anything ETH does.

Agenda, agenda, agenda.

 

[Wumminator]

I applaud your effort to use a statistical analysis to understand our issues, but I believe your conclusion is flawed. % of minutes played does not translate into % of minutes available. What you're proving here is that the team isn't well constructed, that only a handful of players are nailed on starters, and that we rotate a lot - a point you concede when looking at Man City. You also mention that you can't speculate as to why a player wasn't picked and that you can't base it on club announced injuries, because that would be speculation not backed up by data. The problem with that, is that you presuppose that we have a best XI and that whenever available our "best" players will play. Which is also speculation, and arguably a more significant assumption.

Injuries are reported, and data is available to see how many matches a player actually misses because of injuries. The data supports that five players have been out injured for a significant amount of time. Allowing for one game "recovery" in the league per injury - 90 minutes matches not withstanding.

Tyrell Malacia - 0% available
Mason Mount - 21% available
Lisandro Martinez - 29.2% available
Luke Shaw - 37.5% available
Casemiro - 44.8% available

A number of players in your list have not been injured for nearly as much as suggested by their selections.

Garnacho - 100% available
Varane - 83% available
Hojlund - 70% available
Mainoo - 58.3%

Varane was left out of the squad for non-injury related reasons twice. There is an argument to be had as to whether the Casemiro, Martinez, Shaw trio is key to our entire team structure, but injury wise your XI actually looks like this - suspensions are ignored, because honestly that is self inflicted. 100% is indicated by no percentage added.

Onana
Dalot - Varane 83% - Martinez 29% - Shaw 37%
Casemiro 44% - Mainoo 58.3%
Garnacho - Bruno - Rashford
Hojlund 70​

Now, not all of these players were significant last season, when we finished third, so it might be important to look at how much those players have been available this season - and our backups to key positions.

Scott McT 100%
Antony 91% - two matches special leave
Amrabat 87.5%
Eriksen 75%
Maguire 75%
Martial 66%

Which shows that there is primarily one position we've not had the personell to cover because of injuries - which is left back. The XI suggested in OP with second choice backups for long term injuries:

Onana
Dalot Varane Martinez/Maguire Shaw/Malacia
Casemiro/Amrabat Mainoo/Eriksen
Garnacho Bruno Rashford
Hojlund/Martial
​

A well built squad should be able to handle all but the left back issues. Recruitment has clearly been a problem, but at the same time there are players here that should be performing better on the basis of previous performances and ability (arguably a topic for another thread). Squad management is also an issue that could be, and probably should be, scrutinzed.

You took the time to sort out my only issues with the OP. In reality I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of you both but two absolutely superb posts there.

 

[alexthelion]

I just dont understand, the eye evidence are there every week, but still this guy persists in somehow trying to explain it with data and injury crisis nonsense.
Talk about beeing desperate.
This squad with this manager wont fix itself if you use all the worlds positivity and wishfull thinking.

And no, i wont post and explain this any further, ill just conclude that people are happy living in total denial over what they actually experience from week to week.
This is not brain surgery, this team doesnt play like a team, they are disorganized, they dont score enough goals, and lately they have been lucky with the results.

Yes we have had a good period, and yes i wish this was the way forward, but i dont think it is, because its bad performances behind it.
Its that simple.

Edit:
And please, respect that people actually like to analyse fotball objectivly.
No need to get all angry and "#¤% about it.