That was my first thought. I think the OP has done a good job in the way he's laid it out and sparked an interesting debate, but the premise itself is, as you say, flawed.
As you mentioned, Varane was fit a lot of the time. As was Mainoo.
And then with opposition teams, the OP has decided their best XI is based upon who has played the most (which is understandable, seeing as he's not a fan of those clubs). But this is circular reasoning. Obviously the all the other teams will be filled players who've played 75% and above players if those are the players that the OP is picking.
I can't speak for other teams, but Partey and Timber would be part of most Arsenal fans best XI. They would almost certainly be part of Arteta's, seeing as he started them both as soon as he had the chance in our opening game. They've played less than 300 minutes this season. Combined.
There is too much data for me to sort through 24x6x25 lots of player data to check each game. So a summary of the season I feel is a reasonable comparison to make.
Again feel free to change the positions and show the %s (they are all in the spoilers for anyone to use) and see if it significantly impacts your judgement.
If you disagree with any player selections fearing I am being biased then quickly post your best XIs for each side and we can see how much different we would be (spoiler alert it won’t make any significant difference)
I’m happy to make Partey a red player for you? But the point would then be only you’ve missed one player. Zinchenko is hardly a significant loss compared to Timber who didn’t even complete 90mins of football to be able to be judged effectively.
This is a nonsense. How can you compare Mainoo and Garnacho with players like Salah, De Bruyne and co? Because they were clearly not starters for the time they were not playing. Garnacho hasnt been injured at all, he just wasnt picked.
If Mainoo had been fit in August he wouldnt have had regular minutes until ETH was forced into it.
Varane hasn't had any significant injuries either. He just got dropped for the City game (for Evans because he's left footed, apparently), and was left out for a long period after that/had a falling out with ETH.
Casemiro's performances had also been dogshit since February and he was probably our worst player in August, along with Rashford, so his injury came at a good time.
Martinez is the only significant, unexpected injury issue we have faced. And that's comparable in significance to De Bruyne and Robertson's injuries. Shaw's sicknote status is a known quantity and should always be planned around anyway.
Ok so change any of those players around to suit who you think is best. Please.
Manager want to win football matches so will where possible play the best team they can each game to win. If we accept this as largely the case then what I am presenting is a fair representation of what United fans feel about our best XI. Unless you want to put McTominay in over Mainoo?
Equally Varane is unlikely to have been fully fit. Since our 3-0 loss to Bournemouth he’s played pretty much every game. This is speculation though so I’ll default to I think a manger tries to win every game playing the best team possible.
Shaw was accounted for by signing Malacia who hasn’t played all season due to injury. Hence having to loan in Reguilón who actually I forgot to include in our stats. We have had unprecedented injury issues in defence that have meant all reasonable expectations of cover have been exhausted.
Exactly, he went from wanting to sell McT and Maguire over the summer to one point they seemed to be first choice. We were after Amrabat all summer and it was widely reported if we had sold McT we would have bought him rather than loaned him. Eriksen still has his uses and had some good games, but ignored from this analysis. He's persisted with Antony for periods when he was awful, and when Garnacho was fit.
I’m not ignoring anything. Antony’s minutes share is listed in the spoiler. I’ve not once claimed Garnacho has been out injured.
If your argument is that we can occasionally use squad players due to our significant injuries but as I’ve shown other clubs haven’t had to do that then I’d say it’s a poor argument on your part.
That was my first thought. I think the OP has done a good job in the way he's laid it out and sparked an interesting debate, but the premise itself is, as you say, flawed.
As you mentioned, Varane was fit a lot of the time. As was Mainoo.
And then with opposition teams, the OP has decided their best XI is based upon who has played the most (which is understandable, seeing as he's not a fan of those clubs). But this is circular reasoning. Obviously the all the other teams will be filled players who've played 75% and above players if those are the players that the OP is picking.
I can't speak for other teams, but Partey and Timber would be part of most Arsenal fans best XI. They would almost certainly be part of Arteta's, seeing as he started them both as soon as he had the chance in our opening game. They've played less than 300 minutes this season. Combined.
I think if you’re honest, you see very easily that Arsenal has had a whole different continuity than United this season. You can swap around some players here and there if you like, Partey (red) in for Havertz (yellow) and Timber (red) in for Gabriel?(green), even if Arsenal spent more on Havertz than on Timber, and Gabriel in for Timber looks like something safe for aomething hopeful, at least in the short run. Anyway, even then, it looks head and shoulders above United this year. When I see the ‘assumed best XI’s, they look like that: a few debatable positions, who oftentimes will not make huge differences, but far from juat picking those who played the most (re circular argument claim).
"a great coach"? What has ETH done to be called a "great coach"? His idea of single 6 double 10 has been nothing short of a disaster, we are on 0 goal difference despite having all key attacking players available, and we basically play hoofball every time we're under any sort of pressure and Martinez / Shaw are not in the team.
Based on a discussion in the Erik Ten Hag thread I present in my view the biggest reason we've failed to perform consistently at a high level whilst other teams haven't suffered as much in the top 6.
Each side in the Top 6 (Liverpool, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Villa and United) have been broken down player by player into their % mins in the PL also with their (in my opinion) best XI and a brief comment as to how this looks in terms of key player losses and who has played in their stead. It also take a small look into the future in some cases with current injuries.
75% or above 50% to 74% 0% to 49%
* = GK or additional circumstance (e.g. Loan)
Liverpool Alisson 88%
Trent 75% Van Dijk 89%Konate 53%Robertson 40% Mac Allister 68% Jones 43% Szobozslai 77%
Salah 81%____________Díaz 69%
Núñez 66%
The only position up for debate here is Jones but as you can see Liverpool's overall availability taking into account rotations is healthy. The best players, Salah, Van Dijk, Alisson, Szobozslai and Trent all have played at least 3/4 of the PL season minutes to date with Robertson and Thiago arguably the only significant players absent through injury for a longer period. The rest of the squad has been used more in rotation as and when. Joe Gomez is the player who I wouldn't consider in the strongest XI but has played more minutes than Robertson. Injury wise Matip is ACL so out for the season, Szobozsali has a hamstring issue but could be back next week and Thiago is unlikely to return anytime soon but its not a 'big big injury', Trent has a knee issue unsure if he will or won't play on it and Salah has a thigh injury but could return this week.
Alisson 88% Kelleher 13%*
Adrian 0%*
TAA 75% Bradley 7%
Van Dijk 89% Konate 53%
Joe Gomez 54% Matip 36%
Quansah 16%
Robertson 40%
Tsimikas 31%
Mac Allister 68% Endo 38%
Bajcetic 0%
Szoboszlai 77% Jones 43%
Thiago 0%
Gravenberch 38%
Salah 81% Diaz 69% Jota 47%
Gakpo 43%
Elliot 26%
Doak 1%
Núñez 66%
Manchester City Ederson 92%
Walker 92% Dias 76%Ake 66% Gvardiol 71% Rodri 83% De Brunye 11%Bernardo 73% Foden 90% Haaland 72% Doku 52%
Now there could be arguments made for the inclusion of several players here such is the strength in depth of the Man City squad but even allowing for any change you'd choose to make the only long term injuries have been De Brunye (massive of course) and Stones. The rest have been used in rotation as you would expect with a squad as strong as City's. I'd say they are the 2nd least affected side by injuries in the top 6. The only positions I consider up for debate in this starting XI are Doku and Ake. Álvarez is actually the most played outfield player with 94% mins played and would be the one to replace De Brunye in the most played XI. Currently no players are significantly injured Kovacic has a knock, Gvardiol being assessed and Grealish a hip issue being assessed.
Ederson 92% Ortega 8%*
Carson 0%*
Walker 92% Lewis 22%
Dias 76% Aké 66% Stones 29% Akanji 64%
Gvardiol 71% Gomez 1%
Rodri 83% Kovacic 42%
Nunes 30%
De Brunye 11% Bernardo Silva 73%
Foden 90% Doku 52% Grealish 34%
Bobb 6%
Haaland 72% Álvarez 94%
Arsenal Raya 83%
White 84% Saliba 100% Gabriel 84%Zinchenko 66% Rice 96%
Ødegaard 87%Havertz 67% Saka 92%Jesus 51% Martinelli 72%
Arsenal's first choice XI feels a bit more clear cut but I would accept an argument for Partey over Havertz. Regardless you can see they've had their best XI available the majority of the season the only exception being Jesus who still have over 1/2 the available minutes for Arsenal. Partey and Timber stand out as longer injuries to squad players but beyond that they've not been hit too badly. Saliba 100% is mind boggling considering his role! Timber is expected back April, Zinchenko has a calf issue but could be back this week, Partey has a hamstring issue no idea when back, Vieira is back in the next few weeks and Jesus has a knee problem but could be back within days too.
Raya 83% Ramsdale 21%
Hein 0%*
White 84% Tomiyasu 29%
Soares 1%
Saliba 100%
Gabriel 84% Timber 2%
Kiwor 20%
Zinchenko 66%
Rice 96% Partey 12%
Jorginho 23%
Elneny 1%
Ødegaard 87% Havertz 67% Vieira 11%
Smith Rowe 10%
Martinelli 72% Trossard 38%
Saka 92% Nelson 6%
Jesus 51% Nketiah 47%
Tottenham Hotspur Vicario 100%
Porro 96% Romero 71% van de Ven 60%Udogie 82% Sarr 59% Bissouma 58% Kulusevski 86%Maddison 53%Son 80% Richardson 59%
The Spurs midfield pairing is very much up for debate so argue amongst yourselves as to who you'd swap in but this myth of Spurs injuries have been as bad across the season just isn't statistically true. They have absolutely been impacted by losing Maddison but beyond that the loss isn't anywhere near our levels. They are I'd say the 2nd most affected by injuries out of the top 6. No major injuries to report currently but Lo Celso back this week, Solomon out for the foreseeable with knee issues and Sessegnon no idea.
Aston Villa Martinez 96%
Konsa 93%Carlos 54%Torres 70%
Cash 69%Kamara 77% Luiz 91%Digne 71% McGinn 95% Diaby 68%Watkins 98%
Aston Villa are very hard to pin to a formation so I've tried my best to show what I believe is in Emery's mind the best mix of players in roughly the right places. So don't shoot me! The only notable lower % player is Carlos but with Konsa able to play RCB/CB and Cash they've rotated well. Diaby has been rotated with Bailey for their pacey outlet option so overall looking very healthy with key players like Martinez, Konsa, Luis, McGinn and Watkins all in the 90+% bracket. Mings is long term injured but not a player any Villa fan would consider in their best XI. They have more recently picked up injuries and I would expect them to struggle more now with Kamara and Cash out. Kamara is out long term knee, Buendia is in recovery (knee) our for the season likely, Mings similar, Konsa likely out for 3/4 weeks.
Manchester United Onana 100%
Dalot 89% Varane 42% Martinez 26% Shaw 43%
Casemiro 42% Mainoo 36% Garnacho 66% Bruno 96% Rashford 76% Højlund 64%
Now we can debate Dalot vs AWB, I've gone Dalot because he's had the most minutes and so as not to be accused of trying to hide high % playing 'starters', and I've opted Varane over Maguire but I'd argue Varane is better and it's only a 5% difference in minutes share.
When you consider Mainoo's minutes would likely have gone to Mount while injured we've been really royally fecked over by injuries. Look at us compared to the top 6 sides.
Dealing with some level of injury is absolutely to be expected but 5 of what many would consider our best XI haven't played more than 57% of our PL matches so far this season. Our best CB has missed 3/4 of the season so far and looks to be missing even more. And we've been without our best midfield pairing for 64% of the season. Now add in Champions League, League Cup and FA cup fixtures and you can see why we might have found it difficult.
The impact injuries have had on our defence is unprecedented we have one player (Dalot) who has been able to play 50%+ of our games.
In midfield due to injuries and fitness we've had to rely on McTominay for 56% of our game time but with the squad back and fit you can see his role is reduced to clutch player (impact sub).
Our record since having most players back has been 4 wins in 4. But we have Martinez out until April earliest, Martial out till April, Malacia expected back end of Feb/Early march, Shaw hopefully back this weekend. Mount also back hopefully next week. Wan Bissaka out for the foreseeable.
Pretty staggering that such an uninspiring, let down of a manager can generate this amount of logical contortion to excuse his failings.
Could understand it if we were playing barnstorming football and just not getting the results, or if we were slowly but constantly improving, but we're not.
Again, the same manager won a cup, got to another final, finished 3rd in his first season in the league last year behind two other teams who were far more settled and been together for longer than us. What's wrong in trying to understand why we have been poor compared to last year.
That was my first thought. I think the OP has done a good job in the way he's laid it out and sparked an interesting debate, but the premise itself is, as you say, flawed.
As you mentioned, Varane was fit a lot of the time. As was Mainoo.
And then with opposition teams, the OP has decided their best XI is based upon who has played the most (which is understandable, seeing as he's not a fan of those clubs). But this is circular reasoning. Obviously the all the other teams will be filled players who've played 75% and above players if those are the players that the OP is picking.
I can't speak for other teams, but Partey and Timber would be part of most Arsenal fans best XI. They would almost certainly be part of Arteta's, seeing as he started them both as soon as he had the chance in our opening game. They've played less than 300 minutes this season. Combined.
Mainoo has only bit fit since late November/December, but sure we could stick Mount in his place, who has been fit even less, and played roughly half the minutes.
We could even use do the same for Varane if you really want to. Who do you propose ahead of him? Maguire gets you an extra 5%, Lindelof just over. Either way, it's still in the red and we've still used 10 different combinations in central defence, which nobody else comes close to.
Somebody else mentioned Antony. Seems people forget that he too was unavailable for reasons beyond the manager's control, has played about two thirds the number of minutes as Garnacho, and has started 3+ PL matches in a row on two occasions this season. He must be the most unfavoured manager favourite I've ever heard of.
I think the OP does a good job of showing how difficult it has been for us to build any sort of cohesion. I mentioned the number of defensive pairings we've gone through, but it's been the same thing with our midfield trio, our forward line, even our wide partnerships.
I mean look at the squad breakdowns that @BenitoSTARR has spoilered. Every team has 4 or more defenders in yellow or green. We have Dalot and a sea of red. In midfield, we have two players yellow or better, with every other team having 3 or more. Attack is the only place where we start to look about level with the other teams for consistent selection, and even then we're very much on the bottom end.
"a great coach"? What has ETH done to be called a "great coach"? His idea of single 6 double 10 has been nothing short of a disaster, we are on 0 goal difference despite having all key attacking players available, and we basically play hoofball every time we're under any sort of pressure and Martinez / Shaw are not in the team.
Mainoo has only bit fit since late November/December, but sure we could stick Mount in his place, who has been fit even less, and played roughly half the minutes.
We could even use do the same for Varane if you really want to. Who do you propose ahead of him? Maguire gets you an extra 5%, Lindelof just over. Either way, it's still in the red and we've still used 10 different combinations in central defence, which nobody else comes close to.
Somebody else mentioned Antony. Seems people forget that he too was unavailable for reasons beyond the manager's control, has played about two thirds the number of minutes as Garnacho, and has started 3+ PL matches in a row on two occasions this season. He must be the most unfavoured manager favourite I've ever heard of.
I think the OP does a good job of showing how difficult it has been for us to build any sort of cohesion. I mentioned the number of defensive pairings we've gone through, but it's been the same thing with our midfield trio, our forward line, even our wide partnerships.
I mean look at the squad breakdowns that @BenitoSTARR has spoilered. Every team has 4 or more defenders in yellow or green. We have Dalot and a sea of red. In midfield, we have two players yellow or better, with every other team having 3 or more. Attack is the only place where we start to look about level with the other teams for consistent selection, and even then we're very much on the bottom end.
Isn't there a bit of circular logic here, as has been mentioned already? For example, Garnacho is at 66%, but as far as I can remember (and google seems to confirm), he hasn't had an injury this season. So he should really be at 100% and it would make more sense to base it on minutes available for selection (which would presumably require a lot more work to gather).
I dunno - I do like Ten Hag and wouldn't be getting rid of him yet. And our injuries have been frustrating. But there have been large parts of this season that were absolutely terrible, even taking injuries into account. Martinez, Shaw, and Casemiro are the three big ones, and it's been annoying that they've been out for so long, but then I'd argue that a good manager should be able to change the tactics to account for injuries like that. And sure, you can expect and accept a drop off in levels - but we were absolutely terrible for a good while.
Isn't this all getting a bit boring. Is Mainoo really a nailed on starter every week given his age? Plenty of games Varanne has been on bench when fit and also when ETH has preferred Maguire, same regarding McT starting matches. You choose to ignore Antony who ETH felt worthy of £82m and has played him consistently. So a very superficial analysis to suit your biases.
Your entire premise is you can only judge managers on having their strongest teams available, but that rarely happens. Honestly get over it
Well said. Standards are at an all time low when this fanbase is 'happy' being 6th, 15 points from the top and having 0 GD in February.
Reality is this manager has spent over 400m, majority of that on some absolute dross. We're no better than 21/22 when one manager was sacked for being shit and another was one of the worst lame ducks in history for 6 months. Just like now we were 6th with 0 GD. Oh and at least we made it out of the CL group that season, instead of finishing bottom of a piss easy group.
His best player this season has been Maguire and top scorer is McT (his goals have won us league leading 12 points), two players he desperately tried to flog off in the summer. Laughable really.
Previously all managers have been held accountable for injuries and rightly so. Sure the odd injury is bad luck but if there's a genuine crisis then questions have always been asked of the manager's methods in regards to training, games, rotation etc. But with the ETH crew nothing is ever his fault. Going full strength in 4 competitions for 60 games last season was always moronic and at it was going to catch up with us sooner or later. We're seeing the consequences of that this season.
Martinez keeps getting rushed back from injuries, and when he's clearly injured in a game is told to get back on until the injury is properly aggravated. And when we don't win games this sorry lot is quick to point out that we can't judge the manager because Martinez was missing.
The likes of Mings and Buendia would be starters for Villa but have been injured all season. But hey, can't list them in red in Villa's lineup because that doesn't suit the agenda-driven narrative OP is trying to present. Same with the likes of Stones and Timber.
As others have said, great analysis and kind of confirms what most of us feel has been the issue. It was only a few weeks ago that we got back to full strength (then Licha got injured again) so will take a small while for players to gel (at least we are grinding out results).
Hope we have a relatively light injury list for 2nd half of season and we can see a clear upward trajectory in results and stylistically too.
Can say that again. I'm thankful for these new owners because the way things were going I could see us sliding down to 10th and some people being happy about it.
Again, the same manager won a cup, got to another final, finished 3rd in his first season in the league last year behind two other teams who were far more settled and been together for longer than us. What's wrong in trying to understand why we have been poor compared to last year.
Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best. We were terrible and had the same faults at the start of the season with a full squad. We were also quite poor and got some real hammerings for periods last season. We won a mickey mouse cup with an easy draw and where most teams rest their main players. We have spent £400m and don't really seem to have got any better. Some complicated analysis and loads of assumptions don't alter the fact that we havent really progressed. We can't control games, and that doesnt mean that you have 90% possession but you can can control shape of the match and of the opposition. Against Villa, straight after our goal there were two phases where a Villa player wa
As others have said, great analysis and kind of confirms what most of us feel has been the issue. It was only a few weeks ago that we got back to full strength (then Licha got injured again) so will take a small while for players to gel (at least we are grinding out results).
Hope we have a relatively light injury list for 2nd half of season and we can see a clear upward trajectory in results and stylistically too.
Its a highly selective analysis and ignores the fact that several players were chosen ahead of others, not least Antony, Maguire and McT who are not listed in the 'strongest team'. So to be clear, most people happy for us to be garbage, playing terrible football, unless we have every player available? After spending $400m and having highest wage bill in league. its truly staggering how low expectations are now at this club
Isn't there a bit of circular logic here, as has been mentioned already? For example, Garnacho is at 66%, but as far as I can remember (and google seems to confirm), he hasn't had an injury this season. So he should really be at 100% and it would make more sense to base it on minutes available for selection (which would presumably require a lot more work to gather).
I dunno - I do like Ten Hag and wouldn't be getting rid of him yet. And our injuries have been frustrating. But there have been large parts of this season that were absolutely terrible, even taking injuries into account. Martinez, Shaw, and Casemiro are the three big ones, and it's been annoying that they've been out for so long, but then I'd argue that a good manager should be able to change the tactics to account for injuries like that. And sure, you can expect and accept a drop off in levels - but we were absolutely terrible for a good while.
I'm not suggesting those like Garnacho in yellow are the issue. I have said rotation happens and having some yellow is to be expected. Garnacho vs Antony for me is a healthy squad situation to have been in.
The issue is clearly in defence which is what the full squad drop down shows. Like it or not we haven't had our best players fit and available and so have chopped and changed all over whilst trying to play good football. It's an impossible job to do it all how you want so all I'm saying here is we have had more injuries and squad disruption to deal with than any other Top 6 side so can we all stop pretending like it isn't the case.
You can discuss the reasons for it of course and where some come down to selection (hence me providing all data) so people are empowered to make their own minds up.
Minutes available isn't something easy to get to hand (and i've done all this data collection myself by hand so to speak so be my guest if you want to look at % availability.
The fact is though look at our 'best XI' or any version of this and compare to City or Arsenal/ Liverpool. There is much more consistency in selection and share of minutes which helps with routines etc. Now you can argue Ten Hag has made the odd tweak but I'll go back to no manger wants to lose. He will set up each game trying to win. So I don't see the logic in him deliberately not playing good players unless there is good reason not to.
My argument is also that a reasonable level of injuries (like the other top 6 clubs have seen) should absolutely be manageable but we've not seen any reasonable levels of injury in our defence and deeper midfield players this season. It's been quite literally unprecedented.
Well said. Standards are at an all time low when this fanbase is 'happy' being 6th, 15 points from the top and having 0 GD in February.
Reality is this manager has spent over 400m, majority of that on some absolute dross. We're no better than 21/22 when one manager was sacked for being shit and another was one of the worst lame ducks in history for 6 months. Just like now we were 6th with 0 GD. Oh and at least we made it out of the CL group that season, instead of finishing bottom of a piss easy group.
His best player this season has been Maguire and top scorer is McT (his goals have won us league leading 12 points), two players he desperately tried to flog off in the summer. Laughable really.
Previously all managers have been held accountable for injuries and rightly so. Sure the odd injury is bad luck but if there's a genuine crisis then questions have always been asked of the manager's methods in regards to training, games, rotation etc. But with the ETH crew nothing is ever his fault. Going full strength in 4 competitions for 60 games last season was always moronic and at it was going to catch up with us sooner or later. We're seeing the consequences of that this season.
Martinez keeps getting rushed back from injuries, and when he's clearly injured in a game is told to get back on until the injury is properly aggravated. And when we don't win games this sorry lot is quick to point out that we can't judge the manager because Martinez was missing.
The likes of Mings and Buendia would be starters for Villa but have been injured all season. But hey, can't list them in red in Villa's lineup because that doesn't suit the agenda-driven narrative OP is trying to present. Same with the likes of Stones and Timber.
I actually agree with you that we need to have a serious look into how we look after our players. They've come off the back of the most games played in Europe by a squad in the 2022/23 season and had a poor travelling pre season. I really hope this is something INEOS is brutal about addressing.
Sorry but the bold is absolute tosh. Mings is not getting in ahead of Carlos, Konsa or Pau in an Emery system nor is Buendia getting minutes ahead of any of the CM or wide options to a significant enough degree to warrant critique.
Nothing wrong with it, but the bigger reasons we've been so poor is that the players who were carrying us last season reverted to type (no more 'moments'), the manager failed to address the gaps in the squad and wasted time and £70m signing two midfielders (two of 'his guys') who have offered us virtually nothing all season, and at the same time the manager switched to a 4-1-----4-1 system that we dont have the coaching nous or players to pull off. Also the criminal lack of attention in coaching set pieces, attacking and defending, is starting to seriously catch up with us.
One of that midfielder who has out injured for pretty much the entire season until now. Now we can argue that he was the wrong profile of midfielder to target and the other was only signed as a backup on loan, that is a discussion for another thread. But, ETH has been way more affected by injuries than any of our rivals which is what this thread is trying to show.
Its a highly selective analysis and ignores the fact that several players were chosen ahead of others, not least Antony, Maguire and McT who are not listed in the 'strongest team'. So to be clear, most people happy for us to be garbage, playing terrible football, unless we have every player available? After spending $400m and having highest wage bill in league. its truly staggering how low expectations are now at this club
Gordon you have ignored twice now me contextualising the data and decisions I made.
If you are going to ignore me as the OP and not debate my points and my actual position which I have clearly stated in this thread several times now then just leave please.
I have never once said we need every player available. I am saying and I repeat, we have been at a disadvantage relative to other top 6 sides who have more consistently been able to play their best XIs. Those that people have claimed have had worse or equal injury crises (Spurs and Villa) are demonstrably false and so if we are to be critical of Ten Hag let us acknowledge this context.
We lost 3-0 at home to Bournemouth & it should have been 4 or 5. I highlight that game but there were others.
Have injuries played a big part in our form/results? Of course but EtH has managed down not up this year. We aren’t playing the best teams with their best players every week.
We lost 3-0 at home to Bournemouth & it should have been 4 or 5. I highlight that game but there were others.
Have injuries played a big part in our form/results? Of course but EtH has managed down not up this year. We aren’t playing the best teams with their best players every week.
And as long as we acknowledge the impact of those injuries and the comparable extent of ours to the only clubs doing better than us in the league then I’m happy to debate in the ETH or other threads any other finer points.
I don’t know what you mean by he’s managed down. I also think most PL sides are very good now so you do need your best players performing regularly and fit to over a season win more than you’ll lose or draw. On a one off basis knockout style I’d agree but we’re talking across a seasonal impact not isolated incidents where variance can reek havoc.
The impact of the injuries should be evident based on the mins % and availability.
We know which United players have been injured and those from other clubs which I have referenced.
You then also have this concept of available when some players are not fully fit but on the bench etc and so there is so much grey area behind fully available vs can come on for a cameo that I felt rightly or wrongly that at least showing the % mins per player will show what the season has looked like for each squad.
I also didn’t want this to be purely we’ve had injuries and that’s the sole issue, because with players like Garnacho his % could be higher. Selections are more indicative of the relative quality we’ve put out and how often they’ve been put out.
Keep in mind that Dalot has also spent some of his games times playing on the left when Shaw and Malacia were injured meaning it’s not his best position. We relied our right back to be inverted when Dalot plays on the right but bissaka doesn’t play the inverted right back role. This also disturbing the progress of the team because we keep changing the roles of our back four. As a result, other players took times to adjust with the changes.
Except this thread completely fails to show that he's been way more affected.
All it shows is that he's rotated his team more. Which is a hallmark of a floundering manager.
If we pulled the same data for Ole's or Jose's last 6 months it would look similar.
Ole had calamitous injury problems to deal with all through his tenure. Like when Martial, Rashford and Lingard all got injured at the same time and killed all our momentum. Or when Maguire got injured before the semi finals and finals in 2021. Pogba and Martial also started as two of his most key players and by half way through his tenure were perma crocks. None of that changes the fact that he was a really poor manager.
Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best. We were terrible and had the same faults at the start of the season with a full squad. We were also quite poor and got some real hammerings for periods last season. We won a mickey mouse cup with an easy draw and where most teams rest their main players. We have spent £400m and don't really seem to have got any better. Some complicated analysis and loads of assumptions don't alter the fact that we havent really progressed.
I don't know why poeple constantly feel this need to downplay anything ETH does. Did everyone else rest their players when City won that trophy for something like 5 years in a row? Or did Newcastle throw that final against us by resting their players? We did also get to another final, did everyone rest their players in that competition too? We can give credit where its due whilst also acknowledging results have been poor this year.
A lot of his buys haven't been available for selection that much this season. Mount, Hojlund(has to play every match now to that point that Forson has been promoted to the bench as Martial can never stay fit), Martinez, Casemiro, even Eriksen, Mainoo and Antony(not that hes been great) have all been unavailable at various times this season. Point is, he didn't have a full squad to choose from at any point this season. And that has affected our form this season. Had to get in Amrabat and Regulion as emergency loans due to the amount of injuries we had.
Could he do better? Yes. But, we can't deny the fact that any team would struggle with the amount of injuries we have/had.
The TL'DR of this thread is that we cant properly judge ETH unless Martinez is playing every minute.
He cannot be expected to manage a squad that improves over time, or that competes for trophies, or that can win away from home, or that doesnt get routed by rivals, if Martinez is not playing in it.
That’s also not what is being said. A lot of effort has been put into that OP and I’ll be honest Hobbers you’re coming across
My argument has been clearly stated. You choosing to ignore it is a shame. Please stop straw manning me.
Ten Hag has improved players over time, he has won trophies in his first season, he has just won back to back away fixtures etc. and yeah sometimes you need very good footballers to win football matches… that’s kind of the point.
From a negative angle, you could argue that it’s well known that Varane & Shaw are majorly injury prone, Casemiro is prone to disciplinary outages, Rashford has missed loads of days with last season being the exception to his norm, martial the walking dead and even Hojlund arrived with back issues.
so you’d have to question some of the forward planning too
so have we been building a house on sinking ground?
Appreciate the effort here and I agree with the premise that we have been royally fecked with injuries, which has had a significant impact on team cohesion.
However, would be good to know availability % as well as playing %, to give context. As others have pointed out, ETH has made some tactical decisions that are questionable - e.g. dropping Varane. Mixing up the CBs so much this season has meant that their playing % is likely naturally a bit low.
(You don't have to do it, just raising it as a point!)
The impact of the injuries should be evident based on the mins % and availability.
We know which United players have been injured and those from other clubs which I have referenced.
You then also have this concept of available when some players are not fully fit but on the bench etc and so there is so much grey area behind fully available vs can come on for a cameo that I felt rightly or wrongly that at least showing the % mins per player will show what the season has looked like for each squad.
I also didn’t want this to be purely we’ve had injuries and that’s the sole issue, because with players like Garnacho his % could be higher. Selections are more indicative of the relative quality we’ve put out and how often they’ve been put out.
But that's exactly what it is. Garnacho wasn't picked at the start of the season not due to injury but because Antony and Rashford were more in favour. It's the ultimate flaw in this thread and in this argument. You could in fact argue that we'd be doing much better had ETH actually started Garnacho from the get go. His low percentage isn't down to injuries, it's down to the poor decision making of the Manager. Likewise we could be doing better had Rashfords percentage been lower, i.e. he'd been dropped.
If you're going to use injuries as an excuse on why we've not performed well this season this look at injury data. All this thread has done is confuse matters as you're drawing on selection percentage but then drawing injuries as a conclusion when that's just utterly flawed and incorrect. Varane for example has only missed 5 games (all comps) through injury this season, yet you have done as 55% played.
Again, if a player isn't fully fit but is on the bench anyway then that's just poor decision making by the Manager. Either they're fit and can play when required or they aren't. In Varanes example, he didn't play because Evans was deemed to be in better condition and playing better. Along with the rumored arguments Varane had.
One thing I'd love to see as well (but presumably much, much harder to research/prove) is how often our rival clubs are given mitigating headlines versus the likes of ourselves. Typing "injury depleted football" into Google and the results are, unsurprisingly, Tottenham and Newcastle, and also somewhat surprisingly Liverpool, but then afterwards it just seems to be Ten Hag mentioning them - not a peep from various 'journalists' - but we've had a shocking run of injuries. The amount of pressure our managers face without ever allowing for extenuating circumstances from gleeful media figures (like pretty much everyone at sky and on the BBC) doesn't help with the furore among our online fans.
Compare that with Liverpools injuries being mentioned every single week and their poor form early in the season too under probably even less strain than ourselves, and it's a strange hill to die on but it feels like Ten Hags done alright considering the shitshow he's had to look after at times. Having your best CB out all season pretty much and Hojlund missing his crucial bedding in phase has hurt us badly.
I think United might have suffered the worst injury luck of the current top six but its a lot closer than this analysis makes it seem.
As others have noted, the approach confuses injury with non-selection. If you account for times players were available but just not selected, Mainoo would be in yellow and Varane in green. Garnacho and Hojlund would also likely be green if they were automatic starters when fit for Ten Hag, which would put United at 7 green, 1 yellow, 3 red. Its still tough to lose three key players in the defensive spine (Casemiro, Martinez, Shaw) for so much of the year but not nearly as dramatic as this makes it seem.
Some other sides look a lot worse if you make slightly different choices about their best XI. Timber and Partey were expected to play tons for Arsenal and we've gotten almost zero from both. Matip was the most selected partner for Van Dijk during the first part of the season and he is done for the year. Bentancur is surely in Spurs' best XI when fit.
I also think Chelsea would look worse than United if they were included.
And as long as we acknowledge the impact of those injuries and the comparable extent of ours to the only clubs doing better than us in the league then I’m happy to debate in the ETH or other threads any other finer points.
So have you looked at the teams we faced and their injuries for those games versus the injuries for games against other sides?
It’s all well saying, ‘we’ve had more injuries’ because we have but that’s not really the whole story.
We played massively depleted Newcastle & Spurs sides. A quick search on Forza Football shows Bournemouth had 7 first team squad members unavailable on that day versus our 6.
Yes overall we’ve been more injured than other Top 6 sides but we’re also playing teams during their own periods of injuries etc. & the data you’ve chosen doesn’t address that.
I don’t know what you mean by he’s managed down. I also think most PL sides are very good now so you do need your best players performing regularly and fit to over a season win more than you’ll lose or draw. On a one off basis knockout style I’d agree but we’re talking across a seasonal impact not isolated incidents where variance can reek havoc.
By managing down I mean things like Sunday. Shaw goes off at half time & he has to bring on Lindelof, now he could have swapped him with Dalot [still not ideal] or he could have asked him to tailor the the way he played but by the looks of it he was asking Lindelof to do a very poor Sgaw impression against Bailey who then had him on toast.
We’ve been without Casemiro for large parts of the season & he’s persisted with a single pivot etc.
My minds fuzzy as I’m fresh off surgery but I don’t remember lots of games where we played well but ‘replacement player wasn’t as good as first choice’ so he didn’t make a tackle or finish a chance. It’s generally been poor team performances which of course better players would counter but isnt simply a case of dropping Player X in then things getting better.
Your initial post is a great starting point but there are so many other things to be took into account imo.
He wouldnt have started Mainoo during the period he was injured. And regardless of injuries he dropped Mount and has benched him behind Eriksen, McTominay and Amrabat at various points this season, sometimes two of them.
Not sure how you can say that when teams like Arsenal, City and Liverpool have their first choice XI available for way longer than us. You can argue who we can consider as their best XI but I don't see how injuries haven't affected us.
He also had to rotate more because he had different players available at different times. Not once this season he had all the players fit and available for selection at the same time.
I posed this question to another poster but City lost 3 games in the league this season. Rodri was unavailable for all 3 of those. Some players are just that important to some teams. Multiply that by 4 or 5 first choice players who have been injured/unavailable, ofcourse anyone would struggle.
It's a good thread though, i'd be very interested to actually see the data on how many games players have missed through injury. If that's going to be the go to excuse for our crap season then that's the important data. I'm sure we'd be high up on the injury list what with Mount's long term problems along with Shaw/Casemiro/Mainoo. I know Sheffield United have had huge injury problems, probably the worst in the league by some distance.
He wouldnt have started Mainoo during the period he was injured. And regardless of injuries he dropped Mount and has benched him behind Eriksen, McTominay and Amrabat at various points this season, sometimes two of them.
And as I've already said Casemiro was playing so badly I think his injury did us more good than bad.
Mount started most of the games before he got injured. Mainoo has started most of the games after he recovered from his injury. So considering those facts yes, he sees them as starters.
From a negative angle, you could argue that it’s well known that Varane & Shaw are majorly injury prone, Casemiro is prone to disciplinary outages, Rashford has missed loads of days with last season being the exception to his norm, martial the walking dead and even Hojlund arrived with back issues.
so you’d have to question some of the forward planning too
so have we been building a house on sinking ground?
Appreciate the effort here and I agree with the premise that we have been royally fecked with injuries, which has had a significant impact on team cohesion.
However, would be good to know availability % as well as playing %, to give context. As others have pointed out, ETH has made some tactical decisions that are questionable - e.g. dropping Varane. Mixing up the CBs so much this season has meant that their playing % is likely naturally a bit low.
(You don't have to do it, just raising it as a point!)
Availability is a bit subjective and the data is harder to find. You could argue that being on a bench is available but we all know managers use subs to build fitness etc. So without the actual club data I could present information but it wouldn’t be fact necessarily.
At least with this we can see the minutes share of players some of which are not down to injury but in our case a lot are.
So have you looked at the teams we faced and their injuries for those games versus the injuries for games against other sides?
It’s all well saying, ‘we’ve had more injuries’ because we have but that’s not really the whole story.
We played massively depleted Newcastle & Spurs sides. A quick search on Forza Football shows Bournemouth had 7 first team squad members unavailable on that day versus our 6.
Yes overall we’ve been more injured than other Top 6 sides but we’re also playing teams during their own periods of injuries etc. & the data you’ve chosen doesn’t address that.
By managing down I mean things like Sunday. Shaw goes off at half time & he has to bring on Lindelof, now he could have swapped him with Dalot [still not ideal] or he could have asked him to tailor the the way he played but by the looks of it he was asking Lindelof to do a very poor Sgaw impression against Bailey who then had him on toast.
We’ve been without Casemiro for large parts of the season & he’s persisted with a single pivot etc.
My minds fuzzy as I’m fresh off surgery but I don’t remember lots of games where we played well but ‘replacement player wasn’t as good as first choice’ so he didn’t make a tackle or finish a chance. It’s generally been poor team performances which of course better players would counter but isnt simply a case of dropping Player X in then things getting better.
Your initial post is a great starting point but there are so many other things to be took into account imo.
Are you asking have I analysed every team in the PL injuries in each game they’ve played relative to one another? On a Wednesday?
No
I’m not going to look on the micro basis of game by game when if we’re being reasonable the % minutes share is a decent metric to look at how often the best players have played through injury/rotation etc.
I think you’re being harsh on the options available to Ten Hag when Shaw came off. Swap Dalots flank and we lose the overlap. We also don’t score the winner.
I agree the post is a good starting point and hopefully will encourage others to explore the questions they are sending my way.
At least now I think it’s clear there are issues beyond a normal expected level of disruption that we have dealt with relative to other sides.
Of course teams lose players throughout season, who can tell me why Erik keeps playing the same formation even we don't have a like for like replacement? Shouldn't a coach have different tricks up his sleeves? I still remember that Alex beat Arsenal with 6 defenders in the XI. Shouldn't a coach move to a back 3 with overlapping wingback or go 442 for a win? I have not seen anything special about Erik whether we have crisis or not.
️