@SilentWitness should be the expert on this, but I do believe they've been creating lots of chances but just failing to put them away. Mad going into the season with DCL as their 9... and Beto.
UPDATED!!! United vs Top 6 - An Injury/Availability Analysis - Still Happy With 6th?
- Thread starter BenitoSTARR
- Start date
Xg in the games against us 4.57 (3 pens) vs 4.32. 5-0.
I would have thought our financial situation and points deductions would show how hard it is for us to sign anyone each window tbh. Beto was one of the few players that we could sign on a deal where we could pay little to nothing initially and spread the cost. DCL started the season pretty well and is still doing alright in terms of overall play but he's lost that edge in front of goal unfortunately due to injuries and lack of game time in the past 2-3 seasons.
It just goes to show that in an infinite universe allows for many diverse opinions. When i say good ball players i meant people who do something with it, not pass sideways and backwards to pad their stats like the very best dsys of LVG.
Working hard and playing like you mean it in the first 30 mins should be the goal. See if we can do yhat consistently as a team rather than only tey in the last 20 mins when chasing a result.
You are more likely to get injured when tired and when playing wih desperation.
But I'm sure I'm wrong again.
Brentford's first choice back 4 at the start of the season was Hickey-Mee-Pinnock-Rico Henry.
That last played together in middle of September when Rico Henry did his ACL at Newcastle. Since then Hickey hasn't played since December, same for Pinnock and Mee had a season ending injury last month.
The defence they put out v you was back ups of Ajer, Jorgensen and Roerslev with Kane Lewis Potter the makeshift LWB.
This can’t possibly be right.
We’ve been told all season by posters on here (Hi @VP89 @BenitoSTARR @TheReligion) that you can’t possibly expect a team to put together a dominating & coherent performance without your full first XI available. In fact just missing two defenders is enough for your whole system to break down. Expecting anything else from your squad players is just ridiculous.
Sorry but the only explanation for Saturday is Thomas Frank was using some form of witchcraft.
Who the feck is this guy
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No, that's not what we said. Boiling the detailed posts down to one sentence is quite dicey.
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Imagine looking at the effort and detail put into the OP and subsequent posts and deciding that is the best description of my views.
What an idiotic comment.
Please do so, I really appreciated the first post and would like to see how it looks right now. Since Brentford, my patience for Erik ten Hag has almost dropped off completely. But I am still convinced that the injuries of our squad is incomparable to others.
I agree. It has to be witchcraft. Apparently without Shaw and Martinez means all we can expect is terrible football and unsustainable performances.
We should be happy with getting battered by injury hit teams like Fulham, Brentford, Bournemouth and Brighton due to our fully fledged international players being unable to kick a ball!
United April Update
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Update for United:
Will do other top 6 clubs when I can.
75% or above
50% to 74%
0% to 49%
* = GK or additional circumstance (e.g. Loan)
Manchester United
Onana 100% (+0)
Dalot 91%(+2) Varane 50% (+8) Martinez 22% (-4) Shaw 36% (-7)
Casemiro 47% (+5) Mainoo 48% (+12)
Garnacho 71% (+5) Bruno 97% (+1) Rashford 78% (+2)
Højlund 60% (-4)
For a bonus this would be the most played XI by position (I believe please correct if you feel wrong) note this does not mean these players have all played together the most, only they’ve been the most selected/available.
Onana
Dalot Varane Maguire Lindelöf
Mainoo McTominay
Garnacho Bruno Rashford
Hojlund
Thoughts
Will do other top 6 clubs when I can.
75% or above
50% to 74%
0% to 49%
* = GK or additional circumstance (e.g. Loan)
Manchester United
Onana 100% (+0)
Dalot 91%(+2) Varane 50% (+8) Martinez 22% (-4) Shaw 36% (-7)
Casemiro 47% (+5) Mainoo 48% (+12)
Garnacho 71% (+5) Bruno 97% (+1) Rashford 78% (+2)
Højlund 60% (-4)
Onana 100%
Bayindir 0%*
Heaton 0%*
AWB 39% (-2)
Dalot 91%
Martinez 22%
Maguire 48% (+1)
Varane 50% (+8)
Lindelof 49% (+5)
Evans 41% (+0)
Kambwala 10% (-2)
Shaw 36% (-7)
Malacia 0%
Casemiro 47% (+5)
Amrabat 26% (-6)
Mainoo 48% (+12)
McTominay 58% (+2)
Eriksen 33% (-6)
Fernandes 97% (+1)
Mount 15% (-4)
Rashford 78 (+2)
Garnacho 71% (+5)
Antony 40% (-3)
Diallo 2% (+0)
Højlund 60% (-4)
Martial 16% (-5)
Bayindir 0%*
Heaton 0%*
AWB 39% (-2)
Dalot 91%
Martinez 22%
Maguire 48% (+1)
Varane 50% (+8)
Lindelof 49% (+5)
Evans 41% (+0)
Kambwala 10% (-2)
Shaw 36% (-7)
Malacia 0%
Casemiro 47% (+5)
Amrabat 26% (-6)
Mainoo 48% (+12)
McTominay 58% (+2)
Eriksen 33% (-6)
Fernandes 97% (+1)
Mount 15% (-4)
Rashford 78 (+2)
Garnacho 71% (+5)
Antony 40% (-3)
Diallo 2% (+0)
Højlund 60% (-4)
Martial 16% (-5)
For a bonus this would be the most played XI by position (I believe please correct if you feel wrong) note this does not mean these players have all played together the most, only they’ve been the most selected/available.
Onana
Dalot Varane Maguire Lindelöf
Mainoo McTominay
Garnacho Bruno Rashford
Hojlund
Thoughts
Last edited:
Hmm.. Let's take Liverpool for example. They have played a back 4 with Robertson, TAA and Konate out for much of the new year. VVD has been the only mainstay, and you have the likes of Quansah, Bradley and Gomez and LB. They still manage to get the job done. They wouldn't drop off completely because of the quality in the side, but you'd understand if they even fell off it by a couple of points in the title race.
The midfield has been the major issue, and Casemiro has come back but hasn't solved the problem at all. Martinez and Shaw have been big losses. I think maybe with a fully fit team we're right in the mix with Spurs and Villa for 4th or 5th.
It's interesting to see and think about though. I don't know if selection headaches have been mitigating enough for what I am watching every week.
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I’ll do the rest at some point but I think Liverpool are still significantly better off than us (that’s before we talk about squad profile etc) but absolutely clubs that are well constructed and have a clear vision from top to bottom perform well.
As much as it pains me to admit, Liverpool have done brilliantly relative to Arsenal and City who have barely experienced injury to their “best” XI.
I think the lack of consistency has messed up our defence and midfield adding to our woes.
Thanks, it is helpful to see from an objective standpoint so appreciate you putting in the effort.
I hate using the catch-all 'system' or 'patterns of play' term, but it seems that with only a few key injuries, the system that we want to play becomes unsustainable. That just doesn't feel right.
When you watch other big clubs, the personnel available may impact the degree of quality that they can produce, but in a general sense, the game plan, tactical set up, footballing ethos, whatever you want to call it, remains a constant (for the most part). So in a sense, you then have something repeatable. A base to build off. The games play out in a similar manner more often than not.
In a way, I respect that EtH has stuck to his guns and is playing the way he wants us to play (I can only assume?), but if the whole system breaks down with some components missing (and I respect that those 'components' have been some key players for us), then the system is just too unsustainable for it to be viable.
I remember last season when we beat Spurs at OT 2-0. I remember after watching that match and thinking "yes, we've finally found something here". It was complete domination, and would have been 5-0 if only Rashford had stuck his couple of chances away.
We looked in control, we had presence in the middle, a threat from wide, limited Spurs going forward.. it was just an all round good performance. Granted, Spurs were shocking last season, so maybe that was it. But I felt after watching that game, that that was the benchmark going forward in terms of approach, set-up, how we can build something that's repeatable.
Now we're watching essentially basketball games. We could have played that game last night 10 times and the outcomes would be wildly different. You can't get anywhere with that helter-skelter football in the long term. Now we had lots of injury problems last season too, but we never looked like this, apart from a couple horrendous away performances.
I can't put my finger on it.
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I think this system doesn’t work with the CBs and midfield we’ve had all season. I do think you put a Rice, Saliba and Gabriel in there and all of a sudden the gaps go. I think this is the biggest problem with Ten Hag’s system.
In theory it works with the right players but we don’t have those. So I absolutely understand frustration of well why even try it now?
Would you class us as a modern big club? Not just a historic one in the sense of recent achievements.
It’s really worrying. But I think it’s fixable in the next window.
Yeah that's the crux of the issue. Either EtH is a believer of what he is doing to the extreme, or he's confident he'll be there next season and is laying out his stall to those above them with regards to the type of player he wants to fix all the obvious issues we have. On a positive note, even a blind man can see the problem so it makes the recruitment aspect easier in theory.
I still see us as a big club, and we still see ourselves as a big club judging by the way we talk. So it's time now for Ineos, SJR and EtH to back up all the talk about standards, knocking the others off their perch etc. Talk is cheap, they have to dig into the pockets in the summer or it has all been nonsense drivel to win brownie points with the fans.
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Yeah and I dont know if this is Ten Hag being ballsy and saying look this is what the players will need to do to be successful look at who can’t meet the demand and how much of this is the tactic itself won’t ever work.
If we go into the summer window and don’t sign a physically capable CB and CDM then I’ll lose faith very quickly in Ten Hag.
Excellent thread. Good reminder for myself too. I hoped we could manage top 4 but these stats show that is simply impossible vs fantastic teams with a lot less first player problems.
The result against Chelsea actually was to be expected, and come sunday we, too, should resign to the fact that the odds are very much against us. This is why I remained pretty upbeat after yesterdays game. We never should have made a come back, never should be going ahead. That kind of result is just overreaching and one of the plusses for Ten Hag.
INEOS and Ten Hag can show the coming summer if they can bring the necessary recruits in defense and midfield as you say. And not halfway in august, but the first week of july, fit and ready for pre season. I hate national football but the euro's might be a good public gauge for hidden gems that we can steal for little money, even we realy need to buy proven quality for the midfield roles. No more Hojlund let's see in 2 years how he goes-buying.
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It’s not impossible, but it goes some way to explaining the issue with defence and midfield. There’s no consistency because there hasn’t been the possibility of it.
I think we should be capable of beating Chelsea and last night was very disappointing to be ahead in the dying embers and still lose.
Ideally some early signings would be helpful but I don’t hold too much hope unless we have players not attending the Euros. Competitions like that seldom help transfers happen quickly.
April Update
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Final update before I do an end of season review (my hope is with no football to do the whole of the PL and see the results).
Each side in the Top 6 (Liverpool, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Villa and United) have been broken down player by player into their % mins in the PL also with their (in my opinion) best XI and a brief comment as to how this looks in terms of key player losses and who has played in their stead.
75% or above
50% to 74%
0% to 49%
* = GK or additional circumstance (e.g. Loan)
The only position up for debate here is Jones but as you can see Liverpool's overall availability taking into account rotations is healthy enough but since my last post defence has taken a battering.
The forward line is being rotated a lot more now (understandable).
I do think this shows what a brilliant job Klopp is doing though to keep rotating and deal with injury as I’d argue they are the 2nd
Manchester City
Ederson 83%
Walker 81% Dias 79% Ake 65% Gvardiol 61%
Rodri 86%
De Brunye 24% Bernardo 74%
Foden 88% Haaland 75% Doku 50%
Now there could be arguments made for the inclusion of several players here such is the strength in depth of the Man City squad but even allowing for any change you'd choose to make the only long term injuries have been De Brunye (massive of course) and Stones.
City can have no real complaints here.
Arsenal
Raya 83%
White 86% Saliba 100% Gabriel 87% Zinchenko 56%
Rice 93%
Ødegaard 89% Havertz 72%
Saka 87% Jesus 45% Martinelli 66%
Arsenal's first choice XI feels a bit more clear cut but I would accept an argument for Partey over Havertz.
As you can see remarkable consistency in their back line in terms of % mins share. Again Arsenal can have no real complaints.
Tottenham Hotspur
Vicario 100%
Porro 90% Romero 77% van de Ven 60% Udogie 82%
Sarr 59% Bissouma 64%
Kulusevski 84% Maddison 60% Son 84%
Richardson 51%
Remember the widely reported injury crisis at Spurs? Yeah… based on the mins shared of the best XI that was a very brief part of their season. A big impact on a handful of games but you can see the above (and below) it’s not derailed the whole season.
Aston Villa
Martinez 94%
Konsa 88% Carlos 48% Torres 69%
Cash 68% Kamara 60% Luiz 92% Digne 64%
McGinn 85%
Diaby 62% Watkins 94%
Aston Villa are very hard to pin to a formation so I've tried my best to show what I believe is in Emery's mind the best mix of players in roughly the right places.
A few more injuries have also aligned with their more recent drop off in form.
Thoughts?
Each side in the Top 6 (Liverpool, City, Arsenal, Spurs, Villa and United) have been broken down player by player into their % mins in the PL also with their (in my opinion) best XI and a brief comment as to how this looks in terms of key player losses and who has played in their stead.
75% or above
50% to 74%
0% to 49%
* = GK or additional circumstance (e.g. Loan)
Liverpool
Alisson 70%
Trent 60% Van Dijk 91% Konate 53% Robertson 41%
Mac Allister 74%
Jones 36% Szobozslai 70%
Salah 73% ____________ Díaz 75%
Núñez 65%
Alisson 70%
Trent 60% Van Dijk 91% Konate 53% Robertson 41%
Mac Allister 74%
Jones 36% Szobozslai 70%
Salah 73% ____________ Díaz 75%
Núñez 65%
The only position up for debate here is Jones but as you can see Liverpool's overall availability taking into account rotations is healthy enough but since my last post defence has taken a battering.
The forward line is being rotated a lot more now (understandable).
I do think this shows what a brilliant job Klopp is doing though to keep rotating and deal with injury as I’d argue they are the 2nd
Alisson 70%
Kelleher 30*
Adrian 0%*
TAA 60%
Bradley 23%
Van Dijk 91%
Konate 53%
Joe Gomez 60%
Matip 29%
Quansah 23%
Robertson 41%
Tsimikas 25%
Mac Allister 74%
Endo 45%
Bajcetic 0%
Szoboszlai 70%
Jones 36%
Thiago 0%
Gravenberch 37%
Salah 73%
Diaz 75%
Jota 39%
Gakpo 44%
Elliot 32%
Doak 1%
Núñez 65%
Kelleher 30*
Adrian 0%*
TAA 60%
Bradley 23%
Van Dijk 91%
Konate 53%
Joe Gomez 60%
Matip 29%
Quansah 23%
Robertson 41%
Tsimikas 25%
Mac Allister 74%
Endo 45%
Bajcetic 0%
Szoboszlai 70%
Jones 36%
Thiago 0%
Gravenberch 37%
Salah 73%
Diaz 75%
Jota 39%
Gakpo 44%
Elliot 32%
Doak 1%
Núñez 65%
Manchester City
Ederson 83%
Walker 81% Dias 79% Ake 65% Gvardiol 61%
Rodri 86%
De Brunye 24% Bernardo 74%
Foden 88% Haaland 75% Doku 50%
Now there could be arguments made for the inclusion of several players here such is the strength in depth of the Man City squad but even allowing for any change you'd choose to make the only long term injuries have been De Brunye (massive of course) and Stones.
City can have no real complaints here.
Ederson 83%
Ortega 14*
Carson 0%*
Walker 81%
Lewis 25%
Dias 79%
Aké 65%
Stones 35%
Akanji 69%
Gvardiol 61%
Gomez 1%
Rodri 86%
Kovacic 38%
Nunes 26%
De Brunye 24%
Bernardo Silva 74%
Foden 88%
Doku 50%
Grealish 33%
Bobb 7%
Haaland 72%
Álvarez 85%
Ortega 14*
Carson 0%*
Walker 81%
Lewis 25%
Dias 79%
Aké 65%
Stones 35%
Akanji 69%
Gvardiol 61%
Gomez 1%
Rodri 86%
Kovacic 38%
Nunes 26%
De Brunye 24%
Bernardo Silva 74%
Foden 88%
Doku 50%
Grealish 33%
Bobb 7%
Haaland 72%
Álvarez 85%
Arsenal
Raya 83%
White 86% Saliba 100% Gabriel 87% Zinchenko 56%
Rice 93%
Ødegaard 89% Havertz 72%
Saka 87% Jesus 45% Martinelli 66%
As you can see remarkable consistency in their back line in terms of % mins share. Again Arsenal can have no real complaints.
Raya 83%
Ramsdale 20%
Hein 0%*
White 86%
Tomiyasu 29%
Soares 1%
Saliba 100%
Gabriel 87%
Timber 2%
Kiwor 32%
Zinchenko 56%
Rice 93%
Partey 14%
Jorginho 30%
Elneny 1%
Ødegaard 89%
Havertz 72%
Vieira 10%
Smith Rowe 12%
Martinelli 72%
Trossard 38%
Saka 87%
Nelson 6%
Jesus 45%
Nketiah 40%
Ramsdale 20%
Hein 0%*
White 86%
Tomiyasu 29%
Soares 1%
Saliba 100%
Gabriel 87%
Timber 2%
Kiwor 32%
Zinchenko 56%
Rice 93%
Partey 14%
Jorginho 30%
Elneny 1%
Ødegaard 89%
Havertz 72%
Vieira 10%
Smith Rowe 12%
Martinelli 72%
Trossard 38%
Saka 87%
Nelson 6%
Jesus 45%
Nketiah 40%
Tottenham Hotspur
Vicario 100%
Porro 90% Romero 77% van de Ven 60% Udogie 82%
Sarr 59% Bissouma 64%
Kulusevski 84% Maddison 60% Son 84%
Richardson 51%
Forster 0%*
Austin 0%*
Whiteman 0%*
Porro 90%
Royal 35%
Romero 77%
van de Ven 60%
Dragusin 25%* (of available)
Dier* 11%
Udogie 82%
Davies 42%
Sessengnon 0%
Sarr 59%
Bissouma 64%
Bentacur 23%
Højbjerg 38%
Skipp 26%
Maddison 60%
Lo Celso 16%
Son 84%
Kulusevski 84%
Johnson 61%
Solomon 7%
Gil 7%
Richarlison 51%
Véliz 2%
Werner* 69% (since loan)
Austin 0%*
Whiteman 0%*
Porro 90%
Royal 35%
Romero 77%
van de Ven 60%
Dragusin 25%* (of available)
Dier* 11%
Udogie 82%
Davies 42%
Sessengnon 0%
Sarr 59%
Bissouma 64%
Bentacur 23%
Højbjerg 38%
Skipp 26%
Maddison 60%
Lo Celso 16%
Son 84%
Kulusevski 84%
Johnson 61%
Solomon 7%
Gil 7%
Richarlison 51%
Véliz 2%
Werner* 69% (since loan)
Aston Villa
Martinez 94%
Konsa 88% Carlos 48% Torres 69%
Cash 68% Kamara 60% Luiz 92% Digne 64%
McGinn 85%
Diaby 62% Watkins 94%
A few more injuries have also aligned with their more recent drop off in form.
Martinez 94%
Olsen* 6%
Gauci* 0%
Konsa 88%
Cash 68%
Kesler Hayden 0%
Torres 69%
Carlos 48%
Mings 1%
Lenglet 42%
Chambers 3%
Hause 0%
Digne 64%
Moreno 36%
Kamara 60%
Luiz 92%
McGinn 85%
Ramsey 31%
Tielemans 45%
Iroggebunam 4%
Diaby 62%
Bailey 58%
Zainolo 26%
Buendia 0%
Rogers 34%* since return in Feb
Watkins 94%
Durán 12%
Olsen* 6%
Gauci* 0%
Konsa 88%
Cash 68%
Kesler Hayden 0%
Torres 69%
Carlos 48%
Mings 1%
Lenglet 42%
Chambers 3%
Hause 0%
Digne 64%
Moreno 36%
Kamara 60%
Luiz 92%
McGinn 85%
Ramsey 31%
Tielemans 45%
Iroggebunam 4%
Diaby 62%
Bailey 58%
Zainolo 26%
Buendia 0%
Rogers 34%* since return in Feb
Watkins 94%
Durán 12%
Thoughts?
Very interesting, shows we have been particularly hard hit.
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Definitely think it should help re-iterate that we’ve had nowhere near the consistency of other clubs who yes have had injury and rotation but clearly not the same level.
You wouldn’t know it considering the lazy narrative pumped out that suggests all teams are having the same issues.
Ah but some will Just say the injuries and fitness is all the managers fault. I heard ETH was working in a Chinese lab just before covid happened, can’t be a coincidence, he’s clearly responsible for everything that goes wrong.
Indeed, I expected to see teams with similar levels to us but was surprised just how many we have in red.
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Again it’s factually available context for anyone that wants to read it available in the thread.
The top 6 clubs have not had anywhere near the inconsistency in the back and midfield that we have due to injury. It’s not even close.
And maybe he’s part of that. Absolutely but there are levels of player, medical staff, fitness coaches and Ten Hag all responsible.
Now you can of course debate the selection choices for my best XIs but the point still stands bar making a ridiculous suggestion were the worst off.
I think Newcastle and Brighton are the key ones here for this thread. Would be interesting to see who out of Newcastle and Man. United have actually had the most back 4 combinations out this season. They've both had similar seasons getting injuries in similar positions as they had to bring in Miley to play about ten straight games when they lost 3 Cms all out at same time so pretty identical to Mainoo getting his chance.
Brighton had a defensive injury crisis around November. They all get fit and then they lose key attackers long term like Solly March, Enciso, Mitoma and Joao Pedro missing two months recently.
As for us? Probably the one I'd query the most is Diego Carlos as he's not a first choice at all but comes in when we put Konsa at RB. Mings and Buendia would've still had plenty of starts this season so to lose both to ACLs within 3 days was very very rough, think we'd have sold Digne and had Pau Torres playing LB in first half of the season so perhaps our results wouldn't have been as strong as that.
Moreno-Ramsey down the left in the run in last season was very very good aswell, I think they've started about 3 games together this season and Ramsey ruled out for the season now.
6th is very much in doubt now. What's the lowest you will be happy with @BenitoSTARR?
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I don’t mind doing it for them too?
What would you say is Brighton’s strongest XI? (I’m not sure myself)
So out of interest what do you think (formatted please) is Villas best too? I’m struggling to visualise the formation?
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6th is about the lowest. I think though am yet to do the analysis that even with our injuries a good manager should be able to get us there.
I’m curious your thoughts to the above does anything surprise you?
6th does nothing for me. Even in the death rattle days of Ralf Ragnick's reign, which was a nadir in terms of performances and results, the players had given up, Ralf knew he was a dead man walking, United still managed to finish 6th.
It goes to show that if we get our act together, get proper coaching and recruitment, top 4 should be a minimum guarantee for this club. At the very least.
A moderate enough manager like Arteta has gotten Arsenal to challenge for the league 2 seasons in a row. They have Havertz, Jesus and Trossard in their attack. Christ Jesus, we should be able to keep up with them.
It goes to show that if we get our act together, get proper coaching and recruitment, top 4 should be a minimum guarantee for this club. At the very least.
A moderate enough manager like Arteta has gotten Arsenal to challenge for the league 2 seasons in a row. They have Havertz, Jesus and Trossard in their attack. Christ Jesus, we should be able to keep up with them.
I said weeks ago we finish 9th and I’m going to be right. Chelsea finishing above us this season would be the final nail in any managers coffin but ETH will still be in a job. The club never learns and next season without any European football will make recruitment even harder.
9th might be a godsend though as it would mean avoiding the Conference League.
Emi
Cash Konsa Pau Torres Digne
McGinn Luiz Kamara Ramsey
Bailey Watkins
If they were all available from this season's regulars and we made the Europa conference final that's what we'd do with but Kamara and Ramsey had season ending injuries so Tielemans and Rogers would come in judging on how we've played recently.
Brighton hmmmm....
Steele, Milner, Dunk, Hecke, Estupinan, Gross, Gilmour, Enciso, March, Mitoma, Welbeck/Ferguson is roughly what they started the season with but Joao Pedro started becoming the regular CF around October. Also got De Zerbi basically rotating every other position.
Does finishing 8th guarantee getting rid of ETH? If so, I'll take that.
What’s wrong with Confrence league? It’s competitive football. Hopefully the new manager will be in place by next season so the more football the better.
We shipped 7 to Liverpool and he stayed in the job, so I doubt it. Injuries though…
Doesn't particularly surprise me. The top 5 have been more fortunate with keeping a core on the pitch.
My issue has always been with how bad the performances have been after taking the injuries into account. Not that I don't agree that injuries will have some impact.