Because I'm confident Parliament wont allow that to happen. A credible opposition will help, and some in the Conservative party would vote against it. We will leave with a deal which seems to be the best option left available.
UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80
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Because I'm confident Parliament wont allow that to happen. A credible opposition will help, and some in the Conservative party would vote against it. We will leave with a deal which seems to be the best option left available.
Those who voted Brexit but are long life Labour supporters are the biggest don't knows in this election and that is what campaigners are swaying back to Labour by pressing hard on other issues. The same with Remain supporters in Tory areas, they are don't knows so the Lib Dems have big swings in places like St Albans for example.
This is why the red wall is shoring up and the polls are closing. The exclusion of don't knows is why there are some ridiculous swing from Labour to the Tories in the MRP poll.
Then there's the tactical element of it. Everything is up in the air so people knocking on doors is extremely effective.
No, because most of them are at work during the day
I know/hope this is tongue in cheek but in the event it's not, the few I can think of put every disposable minute in to campaigning and are all higher tax bracket NHS employees. The time they dedicate outside of election periods would also make your eyes water. I couldn't do it, I know that much.
If Labours tax policies came to fruition our closest continental analogue would be Germany.
You're sure showing them.
People can't be this oblivious to the current poor state of our economy. I can't believe there's still people trying to paint the Tories as economically sound.
We've just narrowingly avoided a recession (it will come soon anyway) and people think a Brexit modelling to inflict a huge GDP hit will solve it? Come on people
We've just narrowingly avoided a recession (it will come soon anyway) and people think a Brexit modelling to inflict a huge GDP hit will solve it? Come on people
So you think the Tories are okay because you naively believe that parliament won't allow Johnson to do anything mental even if he has a significant majority.
We know it's mental gymnastics as you don't apply the same logic to if Labour win.
Maybe I'm just shit stirring but I'll be having a thorough look for shenanigans at pollings stations after working hours tomorrow. Especially at places where the swing between Tory and Labour/Lib/SNP is so tight.
I'm not saying that it'll happen but if you told me parties would be outright lying to people and journalists I would have called you crazy.
I'm not saying that it'll happen but if you told me parties would be outright lying to people and journalists I would have called you crazy.
Boris continues to keep his head down and avoid all interviews,latest being Radio 2.
Fair enough, when you put it this way, I can see what you were intending to convey and seem to have mistaken your intentions.
Parliament under Tory control can stop nothing without a Tory rebellion which would be ruthlessly crushed by a Government with a majority surely?
I hope you're right. I just fear those life-long Lab voters will vote Con this one time, given their one time shot at Brexit. Particularly if they can also rationalise it as Con winning anyway.
How much have you put on a hung parliament or Labour minority win?
Found the official Labour poster for tomorrow;
Yes, because he's electoral poison if he is actually allowed to enter into uncontrolled conversation. "Get it done" and a fringe: that's all the Tory election machine wants from Boris.
Look at this thread. It won't matter. Vilify the opposition by any means and shut the feck up about anything other than slogans.
They tried this with May too, but Brexit gives them the single issue to trumpet vacuous bollocks about that they believe, probably accurately, connects.
Stop being nice to him. This is the politics thread - call him a cnut.Fair enough, when you put it this way, I can see what you were intending to convey and seem to have mistaken your intentions.
To be fair to May I don't think there was as much blatant lying in her campaign either.
88% of ads being misleading is insane. How anyone can trust a party responsible for that is beyond me.
@Tory voters - anyone care to justify how you can trust a party that lies 88% of the time?
Quite a few struggles with proofreading this campaign
No. It is the people voting Conservative that will be responsible for a Conservative win.
Indeed, the lying was far lesser in scale. But they did try to go for slogans over policy assuming Labour would just hang themselves. That didn't work so they've upped the ante with a disingenuous, co-ordinated & strategic smear and dis-information campaign unprecedented in UK politics.
They don't need people to trust the Tories. They just need them to trust Labour less. It's appalling, cynical and, almost certainly, going to be successful.
He's doing the political equivalent of taking the ball to the corner flag to run down the clock.
I get the strategy, just not sure how anyone who is politically engaged can justify voting for a party that has been shown to lie nearly all the time.
I don't think many will make that leap because after Brexit there's another 5 years of the Tories and they can't stomach that. Voting BXP on the other hand, they can do.
I've one bet on Labour winning Ashfield and one with Guido on here for the same, that's it.
I've used any money I might have otherwise bet to donate to various anti-Tory organisations. Its better use there than with the bookies.
Have been blocked/stopped from posting on Consevatives Facebook Page. Probably because Ive been stating truths of Tory Government after 9 years.
They are seriously rattled!
They are seriously rattled!
What are the odds for Ashfield? Surely that got to be Labour! I know there have been some number swings in that seat in the last few elections but that Conservative candidate has had an absolute shocker right?
Oh god.
9/4 on SkyBet for 'No Overall Majority' looks tempting.
Search me. On policy alone I can't understand voting Tory.
So, after tomorrow, there'll likely only be two possible outcomes: A hung parliament or Tory majority government
IMO the most likely event is another hung parliament. Second most likely is a Tory majority government, but I kinda doubt this would happen. I can't see Labour winning this and a Labour led coalition in case of a hung parliament is doubtful as well given Corbyn.
Let's see if we can predict now how long the leadership of the major parties would hold out in any event.
Here's my prediction.
The Tory Leadership
Somehow I expect Johnson to form a minority government. Since Johnson made promises right and further right he can't possibly keep even if he got a majority government, he certainly won't fulfill any without a majority. He lost the support of the DUP already and the Brexit Party will not have a lot of seats to complement given it's only competing in a few places. He'll be hardpressed to get anything through parliament given it'll never be better than what is in place today. Eventually this should be realised by his supporters after promise after promise falls through. Clearly despite what he promises, no trade deal with the EU is possible by the end of 2020. In fact, I doubt the UK will have left by its own hand by then because the effect would be so dire that nobody wants to pull the trigger and be responsible.
In fact, I'd predict they hope to stall Brexit long enough that they'll be kicked out without any agreement, so they can simply blame the EU for anything that goes wrong.
I would reckon that by the end of 2020, Johnson will be in very stormy weather over the lack of trading agreements arranged, regardless whether he has a minority government or a majority government. However, I very much doubt he'll step down, instead he'll just pretend it's actually all the fault of someone else. He'll probably limp from scandal to scandal till he's either couped or defeated in the next election. Of course, by then, the damage to party and country will have been done.
Alternatively, I could actually see the Tories simply being content with being in power to the point they might even scrap Brexit themselves asap. After all, once they'ves secured five years of government, they might hope people would have forgotten that by the next elections. Then it'll be back to Tory business as usual. I'm quite sure the tabloids would find some way to justify such change if their bosses get a nice tax cut (they'd probably just blame the rest of Europe and Irish Unionists for locking you in the EU as no proper arrangement could be made regarding the Irish border that would satisfy Irish Unionists and Brexiteers). They'd even hang Farage out to dry. It'd solve all their short term problems and save them from the responsibility of crisis management and a likely destruction of the Conservatives as a party in the next election.
The Labour Leadership
Labour is in no position to win a majority, so the best they can hope for is a hung parliament. In which case they'll need the support of the Lib Dems and the SNP.
But Corbyn doesn't even seem to have a lot of support within his own party as is and seems somewhat unsuccesful in winning over his Labour critics (or banishing them from influential posts). Hell, some of them are even calling to vote Lib Dem or Tory to prevent a Corbyn PM.
If he can't get a majority, but likely even loses seats compared to the last elections (again), his leadership will become questioned if he won't step down due to the results himself. The latter I don't see him have the humility for though given he and his followers have been presenting him as The Social Messiah at the cost of forming an opposition coalition in the interest of the nation before. Mostly as he can't seem to get over himself and his perceived personal and party's entitlement to power. He treats other parties and even his own party's disagreeing MPs as heretics who should just fall in line already. That's never going to work.
Hence I very much doubt he can create a coalition, exactly due to his fence sitting with regards to Brexit and the amount of distrust with his colleagues given his voting record. The other parties would want to establish an anti-Brexit coalition. Besides, it seems he much rather would see the Tories blow themselves up. Clearly that concept failed given recent polling.
The Brexit Party leadership
Well... They won't have a leader in parliament anyway given Farage won't even run... He'll just bark from the EU till the party members he did get elected in parliament realise they don't agree with one another on policy making (given that there was no policy points known in advance and their membership stems from left and right), disagreements and fueds will eventually explode resulting in members going independent or defecting to other parties. There's also the chance they'll try to take the party away from Farage in much the same way as he lost control of UKIP. That usualy happens with hastily formed populist parties as they don't have coherent policies and member views. Likely the remaining members in parliament will want their party's agenda to resemble their personal agenda and someone will attempt to hijack the leadership at some point.
The Lib Dem leadership
IMO Jo Swinson made some grave mistakes in the run up to this election and will eventually suffer the consequences of disappointment of not turning out the amount of seats expected. I don't think she will be exchanged for another leaderuntill a next election cycle failed to produce significant gains though. For now it'll remain stable as the Lib Dems likely will win at least a few additional seats and that may placate people for some time. The real test is whether people are happy with the leadership over time with regards to the tactical and strategic decisions she makes (for example with regards to supporting a government).
I expect the leaderships of the other parties to remain intact in any case given there's little reason for them to change.
IMO the most likely event is another hung parliament. Second most likely is a Tory majority government, but I kinda doubt this would happen. I can't see Labour winning this and a Labour led coalition in case of a hung parliament is doubtful as well given Corbyn.
Let's see if we can predict now how long the leadership of the major parties would hold out in any event.
Here's my prediction.
The Tory Leadership
Somehow I expect Johnson to form a minority government. Since Johnson made promises right and further right he can't possibly keep even if he got a majority government, he certainly won't fulfill any without a majority. He lost the support of the DUP already and the Brexit Party will not have a lot of seats to complement given it's only competing in a few places. He'll be hardpressed to get anything through parliament given it'll never be better than what is in place today. Eventually this should be realised by his supporters after promise after promise falls through. Clearly despite what he promises, no trade deal with the EU is possible by the end of 2020. In fact, I doubt the UK will have left by its own hand by then because the effect would be so dire that nobody wants to pull the trigger and be responsible.
In fact, I'd predict they hope to stall Brexit long enough that they'll be kicked out without any agreement, so they can simply blame the EU for anything that goes wrong.
I would reckon that by the end of 2020, Johnson will be in very stormy weather over the lack of trading agreements arranged, regardless whether he has a minority government or a majority government. However, I very much doubt he'll step down, instead he'll just pretend it's actually all the fault of someone else. He'll probably limp from scandal to scandal till he's either couped or defeated in the next election. Of course, by then, the damage to party and country will have been done.
Alternatively, I could actually see the Tories simply being content with being in power to the point they might even scrap Brexit themselves asap. After all, once they'ves secured five years of government, they might hope people would have forgotten that by the next elections. Then it'll be back to Tory business as usual. I'm quite sure the tabloids would find some way to justify such change if their bosses get a nice tax cut (they'd probably just blame the rest of Europe and Irish Unionists for locking you in the EU as no proper arrangement could be made regarding the Irish border that would satisfy Irish Unionists and Brexiteers). They'd even hang Farage out to dry. It'd solve all their short term problems and save them from the responsibility of crisis management and a likely destruction of the Conservatives as a party in the next election.
The Labour Leadership
Labour is in no position to win a majority, so the best they can hope for is a hung parliament. In which case they'll need the support of the Lib Dems and the SNP.
But Corbyn doesn't even seem to have a lot of support within his own party as is and seems somewhat unsuccesful in winning over his Labour critics (or banishing them from influential posts). Hell, some of them are even calling to vote Lib Dem or Tory to prevent a Corbyn PM.
If he can't get a majority, but likely even loses seats compared to the last elections (again), his leadership will become questioned if he won't step down due to the results himself. The latter I don't see him have the humility for though given he and his followers have been presenting him as The Social Messiah at the cost of forming an opposition coalition in the interest of the nation before. Mostly as he can't seem to get over himself and his perceived personal and party's entitlement to power. He treats other parties and even his own party's disagreeing MPs as heretics who should just fall in line already. That's never going to work.
Hence I very much doubt he can create a coalition, exactly due to his fence sitting with regards to Brexit and the amount of distrust with his colleagues given his voting record. The other parties would want to establish an anti-Brexit coalition. Besides, it seems he much rather would see the Tories blow themselves up. Clearly that concept failed given recent polling.
The Brexit Party leadership
Well... They won't have a leader in parliament anyway given Farage won't even run... He'll just bark from the EU till the party members he did get elected in parliament realise they don't agree with one another on policy making (given that there was no policy points known in advance and their membership stems from left and right), disagreements and fueds will eventually explode resulting in members going independent or defecting to other parties. There's also the chance they'll try to take the party away from Farage in much the same way as he lost control of UKIP. That usualy happens with hastily formed populist parties as they don't have coherent policies and member views. Likely the remaining members in parliament will want their party's agenda to resemble their personal agenda and someone will attempt to hijack the leadership at some point.
The Lib Dem leadership
IMO Jo Swinson made some grave mistakes in the run up to this election and will eventually suffer the consequences of disappointment of not turning out the amount of seats expected. I don't think she will be exchanged for another leaderuntill a next election cycle failed to produce significant gains though. For now it'll remain stable as the Lib Dems likely will win at least a few additional seats and that may placate people for some time. The real test is whether people are happy with the leadership over time with regards to the tactical and strategic decisions she makes (for example with regards to supporting a government).
I expect the leaderships of the other parties to remain intact in any case given there's little reason for them to change.
At this point she needs investigating. You cannot disclose anything like that until the 12th. Anything.
Threats of no deal Brexit are just that, a threat. In a Tory majority there is no need for it anymore. A Tory majority (should) mean the end of Corbyn and swing many more people towards a more centrist stance, who will then empower fence sitting Conservatives to rebel against anything particularly stupid.
@Shamwow as to your point on logic. I am against Corbyn not because i think he has any chance of a majority, but because he and his cohorts are the most dangerous people I've seen in mainstream politics in my lifetime.
Sorry if this has been posted before but it reads like a comedy sketch:
Boris Johnson retreated into a fridge to avoid a TV interview, amid rattled nerves at CCHQ over a narrowing in the opinion polls.
The prime minister was ambushed by the Good Morning Britain producer, Jonathan Swain, during a pre-dawn visit to Modern Milkman, a business in the Tory-held constituency of Pudsey, in Yorkshire.
When Swain first approached Johnson, he asked: “Morning prime minister, would you come on Good Morning Britain, prime minister?” Johnson’s aide can be heard mouthing “oh for f*ck’s sake” in response.
The show’s hosts, Piers Morgan and Susanna Reid, appeared shocked by the aide’s reaction. Swain goes on to say: “I’ve just had a reaction from one of the minders. OK, no need to push, thank you very much,” with Reid exclaiming: “The look on his face, that minder.” The aide was then named on air as the PM’s press secretary, Rob Oxley.
When Swain presses the prime minister, stating he was live on the show, Johnson replied “I’ll be with you in a second” and walked off, before Piers exclaims “he’s gone into the fridge”. Johnson walks inside a fridge stacked with milk bottles with his aides. One person can be heard saying: “It’s a bunker.”
Conservative sources subsequently insisted that Johnson was “categorically not hiding” in the fridge, from which Johnson emerged carrying a crate of milk bottles.
(Guardian)
Boris Johnson retreated into a fridge to avoid a TV interview, amid rattled nerves at CCHQ over a narrowing in the opinion polls.
The prime minister was ambushed by the Good Morning Britain producer, Jonathan Swain, during a pre-dawn visit to Modern Milkman, a business in the Tory-held constituency of Pudsey, in Yorkshire.
When Swain first approached Johnson, he asked: “Morning prime minister, would you come on Good Morning Britain, prime minister?” Johnson’s aide can be heard mouthing “oh for f*ck’s sake” in response.
The show’s hosts, Piers Morgan and Susanna Reid, appeared shocked by the aide’s reaction. Swain goes on to say: “I’ve just had a reaction from one of the minders. OK, no need to push, thank you very much,” with Reid exclaiming: “The look on his face, that minder.” The aide was then named on air as the PM’s press secretary, Rob Oxley.
When Swain presses the prime minister, stating he was live on the show, Johnson replied “I’ll be with you in a second” and walked off, before Piers exclaims “he’s gone into the fridge”. Johnson walks inside a fridge stacked with milk bottles with his aides. One person can be heard saying: “It’s a bunker.”
Conservative sources subsequently insisted that Johnson was “categorically not hiding” in the fridge, from which Johnson emerged carrying a crate of milk bottles.
(Guardian)
*Throws his new Thick of It script in the bin* feck, what's the fecking point of parody anymore.
It's fine, she'll quietly stand down after the election and in 12 months time return as a consultant for the Tories.
One of the main cheerleaders for Brexit is now in charge and has formed an unholy alliance with Nigel Farage and you yet think that him having more power is going to make the Tories become more centrist.
And you think this while people like Amber Rudd (who for all her faults, was at least reasonable on Brexit) are being replaced with hardcore brexiters like Sally-Ann Hart.
Are you actually paying attention to what is going on or is this all just wishful thinking?
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