UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80

How do you intend to vote in the 2019 General Election if eligible?

  • Brexit Party

    Votes: 30 4.3%

  • Conservatives

    Votes: 73 10.6%

  • DUP

    Votes: 5 0.7%

  • Green

    Votes: 23 3.3%

  • Labour

    Votes: 355 51.4%

  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 58 8.4%

  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 3 0.4%

  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 9 1.3%

  • SNP

    Votes: 19 2.8%

  • UKIP

    Votes: 6 0.9%

  • Independent

    Votes: 1 0.1%

  • Other (BNP, Change UK, UUP and anyone else that I have forgotten)

    Votes: 10 1.4%

  • Not voting

    Votes: 57 8.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 41 5.9%
  • Total voters
    690
  • Poll closed .
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East Devon's interesting, tossup between Tory/Independent.

Tory majority of 28 on a 9 point victory is...quite something. Expect major boundary reform if that happens.
 
Ultimate Grib said:
A law needs to be brought in. If media will be forced to publish a correction on a story, they need to publish it in the same format as the original story. So if it publishes a misleading headline, the correction needs to be a headline too instead of buried in the pages no one reads. That should be fun.
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That would be a great law.

One of the reasons the media are backing the Tories is because they have agreed to scrap the Leveson inquiry changes to media coverage whereas Labour would definitely follow it through.

Leveson 2 explained: what was it meant to achieve?
The second stage of the Leveson inquiry into press standards has been abandoned by the government
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/mar/01/leveson-2-explained-what-was-it-meant-to-achieve
 
DavidDeSchmikes said:
“The margin of error here could put the final number of Conservative seats from 311 to 367. This means that we absolutely cannot rule out the 2019 election producing a hung Parliament - nor can we rule out a larger Conservative majority”.
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Afe these polls conducted by Michael Owen?
 
finneh said:
If you stick to spend as a proportion of GDP that's somewhat irrelevant. If the economy grows at a slightly slower rate then the spend as a proportion grows slightly slower also.

As I said increasing spending by 3-5% per year in line with GDP growth would have been sensible. Increasing spending at twice the rate that the economy was growing is stupidity.

I don't understand the obsession with accruing mountains of debt just to artificially inflate the economy in the short term. The chickens always come home to roost so the artificial wealth creation in the early 00's is now being paid for by the current generation.

Also in terms of it "taking money out of the economy", that's not really the case given that we'd still have debt. It's merely rebalancing a historic imbalance. We also have a huge pension black hole along with a massive public debt that we're dumping on the next generation so a bit of common sense is easily justifiable.

Do you know what is really "taking money out of the economy" though? The several hundred billion in interest that we've paid since 2001.

Out of curiousity though if you believe in a large budget deficit when the economy is regarded as at the peak of a boom, what do you think the deficit should look like in a recession and how/when would you go about balancing the books?
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Redlambs said:
Partially, yes.

You are a fool if you think otherwise.
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The brexit campaign played a large part in the slide into right wing nationalism. Also austerity, cuts to vital services while the Tories conveniently allowed the blame for faltering services to fall on immigrants.

Brexit: an internal Tory debate which I'd still ruining and dividing the country.

Austerity: Failed Tory ideology.

2 key factors in the rise of right wing nationalism in England. Both down to the Tories.

But yes, only a fool would not blame Labour. You must be right.
 
Ubik said:
East Devon's interesting, tossup between Tory/Independent.

Tory majority of 28 on a 9 point victory is...quite something. Expect major boundary reform if that happens.
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Yeah suspect the Tories will do what they can to skew things their way particularly given their aging support. Already seeing it with talk of ID Cards. But assuming the poll is correct they will get more seats for their vote % than Labour will. So really it’s unfair comparison.

The reason why the majority might seem low is honestly the amount of seats the SNP have for their vote share. But that’s a different kettle of fish.
 
FlawlessThaw said:
Yeah suspect the Tories will do what they can to skew things their way particularly given their aging support. Already seeing it with talk of ID Cards. But assuming the poll is correct they will get more seats for their vote % than Labour will. So really it’s unfair comparison.

The reason why the majority might seem low is honestly the amount of seats the SNP have for their vote share. But that’s a different kettle of fish.
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Very intrigued to see how it all plays out up here - for a while it looked like the Tories were facing wipe-out but annoyingly seems like they'll hold steady in a fair few of their seats. Could end up being key for them too. Still, every seat counts - ideally maybe see some last-minute Labour tactical switches to the SNP in marginals held by the Tories.

On the majority thing though - important to note it's not necessarily just that the SNP hold seats but that the Tories don't win a lot of them, back before the SNP surge and before 2017 they had a lot less up here.
 
For anyone that's planning on watching through the night on Thurs - this spreadsheet shows the MRP constituency level figures ordered by likely declaration time. We'll obviously have the exit poll by then anyway, but will be good to quickly see whether things are looking better or worse than expected.

 
I'm annoyed that tactical voting is even needed. feck the two main parties for their 2011 AV referendum campaigns.
AV isn't ideal but it was a a step in the right direction.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
The brexit campaign played a large part in the slide into right wing nationalism. Also austerity, cuts to vital services while the Tories conveniently allowed the blame for faltering services to fall on immigrants.

Brexit: an internal Tory debate which I'd still ruining and dividing the country.

Austerity: Failed Tory ideology.

2 key factors in the rise of right wing nationalism in England. Both down to the Tories.

But yes, only a fool would not blame Labour. You must be right.
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Perfect excuse for the Tories to loot the country.
 
finneh said:
If you stick to spend as a proportion of GDP that's somewhat irrelevant. If the economy grows at a slightly slower rate then the spend as a proportion grows slightly slower also.

As I said increasing spending by 3-5% per year in line with GDP growth would have been sensible. Increasing spending at twice the rate that the economy was growing is stupidity.

I don't understand the obsession with accruing mountains of debt just to artificially inflate the economy in the short term. The chickens always come home to roost so the artificial wealth creation in the early 00's is now being paid for by the current generation.

Also in terms of it "taking money out of the economy", that's not really the case given that we'd still have debt. It's merely rebalancing a historic imbalance. We also have a huge pension black hole along with a massive public debt that we're dumping on the next generation so a bit of common sense is easily justifiable.

Do you know what is really "taking money out of the economy" though? The several hundred billion in interest that we've paid since 2001.

Out of curiousity though if you believe in a large budget deficit when the economy is regarded as at the peak of a boom, what do you think the deficit should look like in a recession and how/when would you go about balancing the books?
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I have no problem with Keynesian austerity during an economic boom. The point I was making is that the numbers you're talking are way too high. Making the economy grow at a "slightly slower rate" is fine. But cutting Government spending by £50bn in a year when the economy grew by about £70bn is absurd, that's 70%. And that's before we look at the compound effect of cutting growth by 25-70% year on year for 7 years in a row.

The only reason you're suggesting it is because you've reasoned backwards. You've started with a number that would impact on the total debt post-financial crash, divided it over the years Labour were in charge and got your answer. What you didn't do was sanity check the answer. The numbers you're talking about are way too high and the fact that you didnt understand that growth would be impacted is telling. If you want to discuss the impact of a surplus in the £5bn range back in the mid 2000s, great, lets do it. Ten times that figure is nonsense though.
 
Pexbo said:
In a way I think I’d rather have a clear Tory majority than a slim Tory majority. The slimmer the majority the more they are beholden to the extremists in the party.
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That was true in 2017 maybe, but now the extremists are in charge.
 
TheGame said:
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It seems to be hearsay that the person linked to Hancock's Facebook account was behind the fake news or am I missing something here?
Guardian seemingly not even running the story, albeit they're having on of their pretend the GE isn't happening days.
 
Damien said:
Weirdly her exposé doesn't seem to be in today's Telegraph unless it is in the paywalled section of her article.
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Probably due to the thousands of tags she got proving she'd been tricked / caught out (depending which version you choose to believe)
 
Adisa said:
Too late.
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The election is tomorrow :rolleyes:

There's a huge ad campaign on the streets of marginals today from People's Assembly.

The polls have been narrowing and narrowing and would have done even more so on the last couple of days with Johnsons clusterfeck which has been viewed by more than 11 millions people. Polls wouldn't have accounted for that.

Stop being such a negative nancy there's a huge daily campaign on the ground that's far more presonable than some headlines. That's what swings people.
 
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