Please stop linking to your own website.
UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80
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Please stop linking to your own website.
Trouble is, we've had three years where both Labour and the Tories, by far the biggest parties and loudest voices, were both supporting the notion of Brexit, and perpetuating this idea that there's a great Leave deal out there somewhere if we do things right. The only public voices against during that time have been, god help us, the likes of Jo Swinson and Alastair Campbell. But despite that Remain has moved from behind to ahead in the polls. Its hard not to think that if the Labour Party had taken a different approach they could have changed people's minds.
Jesus Christ! The absolute state of that.
Tories need ca. 7% gap between them and Labour to ensure they have majority. I don't trust the absurd polls giving BoJo majority of 70 or so - I think it will really come down to single seats, and within these seats to very small margins. If Labour/Lib Dem voters manage to swallow their pride and if vast majority of anti-Tories vote tactically an upset seems possible. Honestly, with you guys having the best and most sophisticated pollsters and rather straightforward system, UK is the only country this tactical vote scenario could happen. Most likely scenario is and will remain (until Thursday) a majority for BoJo, but I think it will be a very interesting race.
If I had to call it now I'd guess it'll be a Tory majority by around 18 seats.
Quote it.
Quote it.
Bradley Stoke and some of the surrounding areas are Tory.
I mean i disagree with your personal view on corbyn, but your analysis is accurate in that the Brexit question has changed everything, and crippled any chance of anything other than a conservative win. The political right are incredibly effective in banding together while the left and centre purity tests each other to annihilation. In a hypothetical world where there never was an eu referendum i think this would have been a labour landslide regardless of who lead the party, the last 10 years have been horrific, but the fear of "the other" has been drilled so effectively, that the track record is irrelevant now and i fear will be easily forgotten.
Ultimately labour are fecked as their voter base was heavily split especially in the north, Labour openly backing full remain would have been the death of the party, at least this way they have managed to keep their core voters onside, but unfortunately there is no answer to brexit, you either do it knowing its going to feck up the country or you rebel against it and have your party destroyed politically.
Yeah, I comfort myself about the possibility of a second referendum being Remain, too. I just don't think polls can account for the silent Brexiteer as we saw in the first Ref.
Labour needed to target as many voters as they could, and the reality is that a large amount of the working class voted Leave - especially in the North, and haven't changed their mind. A campaign focused on Remain would miss a lot of their target voters and would've handed the Tories a bigger margin imo. The focus on NHS and Boris' integrity was the right play.
Exactly, without Brexit there is no Indy 2, because Sturgeon's fox would have been shot!
Sturgeon's one chance of a second Independence Ref is if Scotland, as she puts it, is 'Dragged out of the EU'. However whilst that might give legitimate grounds for the SNP to demand a second Ind. Ref, the basis of Sturgeon's clarion call would be to say "Scotland will re-join the EU as an independent Country" , but that might not be greeted with particular favour in many European Capitals, especially Madrid and also I suspect Germany would not be too keen to take on responsibility for taking over the funding of the 'Barnet formulae'.
Tha mask slips...
In 2014 the argument against Scottish independence was that they would be leaving the EU, there would have to be a border with UK.
The EU themselves said they would not have automatic joining rights but would have to join a queue.
They would be in the EU as part of the UK and then would leave the EU by leaving the UK. It's not about blocking its about not being able to join immediately leading to disruption.
What is your forfeit if it isn’t? I’d say £100 worth of food to your nearest food bank is a fair trade for your big balls?
I agree that they certainly won't turn up in the same numbers that the elderly do, all I'm saying is that the youth vote will be higher as a result of getting them more politically engaged.
Given that the realities of BrExit and climate change are now better understood than 2017, I’d expect youth Labour remain to be much more active on Thursday. And many of those would be new voters, replacing elderly leave voters who are no more in this life.
Reports I’ve seen is that university campuses have been very active in use of social media, especially educating first year freshers, all of whom would more likely gravitate to Corbyns more radical views on socialism as their first political stance.
Student campuses are also now flooded with international students who improve the cultural diversity of university life.
It may make all the difference
Right thanks, a wait to join might swing a vote or might not, depending on the strength of feeling. Your original post said 'They won't be able to join the EU if UK is still part of it.', which made it look like you thought the UK would object in some way, but if not fair enough.
I think capital expenditure and day to day spending can be categorised somewhat differently. If in 2007 the UK were investing an extra £100b a year on top of "normal" capital expenditure in solely one off capital projects... That's to say that if Labour in 2007 were running a £45b deficit (as they were), but that a £50b surplus would be achievable outside of short term/exceptional capital projects, then I could see your point. That wasn't the case though. There were increases in capital expenditure, but the majority of the 6.5% year on year increases were in day to day spending. The "problem" with this is that it's exceptionally difficult to wind back day to day spending, whereas it's far more simple to wind back capital expenditure (likewise it's easy to reverse tax cuts).
Had the Tories got into office and been able to cut capital investment by £100b on day one then of course there wouldn't have been any need for any "cuts" to day to day spending.
To be fair all the leaders are likely to do the same over the last few days, especially with this so called 'targeting of seats' for tactical voting purposes being threatened! There is not much point winning a few seats from the opposition if you lose some in your heartlands.
Labour perhaps, more than any other party, is vulnerable to tactical voting, with Leave voting parties (especially in the North) and to remain voting parties in the South, both 'circling the waggons'
Unfortunately for Jeremy its what happens when you try (or give the impression of trying) to face both ways at once!
Robert Peston:
This interview by Joe Pike captures the contradiction at the heart of Boris Johnson's campaign. He wants to be seen as campaigning to lead a "new" government, but Tories have been in power since 2010. So he finds it impossible to take responsibility for 4-year-old Jack Williment-Barr left to lie on coats for hours in a Leeds hospital. His refusal to look at the picture of Jack is Johnson saying "I don't want to own this". This is certainly the political moment of the day and could be the moment of the campaign.
This interview by Joe Pike captures the contradiction at the heart of Boris Johnson's campaign. He wants to be seen as campaigning to lead a "new" government, but Tories have been in power since 2010. So he finds it impossible to take responsibility for 4-year-old Jack Williment-Barr left to lie on coats for hours in a Leeds hospital. His refusal to look at the picture of Jack is Johnson saying "I don't want to own this". This is certainly the political moment of the day and could be the moment of the campaign.
Just found out Angela Rayner is my local MP, she's had some great moments this campaign so I'm happy to have her for my constituency.
It could indeed. The BBC is certainly hammering away at it, maybe they're not quite as biased as we've been led to believe after all.
Had a presentation today at Uni unfortunately otherwise I'd have been all over it
So.... do you think she's going to verify that information or do you think she's just happy regurgitating it on behalf of her sources close to Number 10?
Matt Hancock is for sure punchable... But this should have no place in campaigning
Voted Labour in the end. I live in a Labour safe seat (the Tories haven't even leafleted here) so I was considering a protest vote against JC and the general direction of the party through the Dems or Greens. I don't really like the Labour MP for my constituency, he doesn't even live here for a start but I find him overly smug too. There are many small things like the overflowing municipal bins that annoy me as well (never happened in another Labour ward that I lived in). In the end I couldn't vote for the Green candidate because they live in bloody Cheshire and I just couldn't vote for the Lib Dems over Labour either.
Had a presentation today at Uni unfortunately otherwise I'd have been all over it
So.... do you think she's going to verify that information or do you think she's just happy regurgitating it on behalf of her sources close to Number 10?
Think we both know the answer to that hermano
It's completely unverified that Labour had anything to do with this. She's literally just framing it exactly how Boris and his cronies in Number 10 have asked her to.
Other media outlets are reporting as well
This is "breaking news" so that's pretty standard
If it's true I assume you will condem it?
Is there no way that that Laura one will be held accountable for going rogue and full on using her platform to support the Tories?
It's a bit mad like.
It's a bit mad like.
Oh look a dead cat has been thrown on the table.
No, we'll snatch Laura's phone and shove it in our pockets.
Of course I'll condemn it but I don't believe for a second the Labour party is paying for activists to get the bus and rough up Hancock.
I also want to see the video of Hancock getting punched. Not because I don't believe it happened, I just really want to watch it.
Sadly Hancock's adviser... A video of Hancock being punched on pay per view might even fund some of labours pleges
I just rehashed the same arguments as 2014. If there is no Brexit change everything still stands as it was, minus of course the economic benefit offered by the halving of crude oil price since 2014. So the case for independence would be worse if anything.
They wouldn't be able to join because in order to do so they would have to first leave and then apply to join. It's not a straightforward process and not in the interest of EU who has in fact halted accession for some time with prospective candidates. If however Scotland left as part of the UK and then gained independence it would be in the interest of EU to have them join because that further increases pressure on the rest of England & Wales when two "satellites" NI & Scotland are aligned to EU.
As an example similar to Scotland's GDP, Finland applied to join in 1990. They were an EEA signatory in 1992 and everything was aligned by 1994 when the agreement entered into force however it did take a further year for them to join as a member. It took them 5 years total.
The EU won't want to create further uncertainty in the event that UK remains, they will again as in 2014 push against Scotland being able to join to discourage the case for independence, however if they were to leave they probably would make special provisions for their accession. There can of course be other vetos from countries like Spain for example.
Either way we're far away from any of that, we've an election to draw on Thursday.
Has any Hospital spokesperson given a formal explanation of why this situation arose? Are the Hospital management suggesting/admitting that they couldn't find one bed in the whole of the hospital? It is an awful situation but it seems a bit convenient that photographers were there.
Boris's reaction to the photograph is strange however, but he like most people would be shocked and think surely even with a lack of funding the hospital administrators could have found a bed, or something better!
If they're circulating messages they will obviously be leaked right? To prove what they are saying, no?
The belief is that people in similar situations will in the end make the right choice.
Momentum estimate that 1/3 of all Labour voters made up their mind to vote Labour on the last week in 2017 so they are focusing a lot of resources in the marginals for the next 3 days.
Looking at the targets there are a handful they are targetting to defend the rest of them are constituencies where Tories hold less than 5000 majority. The strategy is to say the least remarkable and they must have internal info on how things stand.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/...ohn-mcdonnell-taken-to-task-by-john-caudwell/
There a 12 minute audio at the bottom of the page
John McDonnell and John Caudwell
There a 12 minute audio at the bottom of the page
John McDonnell and John Caudwell
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