Yep and there are issues about up to date or accurate local polls are. Plus you'd need to factor in the referendum vote.
I also wonder how much interest these tactical voting websites are getting tbh.
UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80
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I also wonder how much interest these tactical voting websites are getting tbh.
Possibly... Doubt we will get to find out though
Probably the next labour leadership will reduce to one momentum candidate Vs starmer.
I'd guess wrong daily and she will win then about 150 plp members will fek off and start a new party
How long realistically would a Labour-led minority government be likely to survive?
The part that I'm calling nonsense is the youth vote. That is one of the things Corbyn has done quite well, getting younger people involved.
If I were a betting man I'd say there would have been a surplus in 06-07 given the growth over that period. However it'd probably "only" be £15 - 20b, along with greater tax cuts but lower (than Brown) infrastructure/public sector spending.
The only thing I would say is taxes can be increased at the brush of a pen during a recession, whereas cutting public services as we've seen takes years and years if you want to do it in a somewhat manageable way (whatever you think of Tory "austerity" they haven't enacted deep cuts in the same way as for example were forced onto Greece by the EU).
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Very good post, particularly the bolded bit.
We’ll see how well that transfers over to the ballot box. Young people tend to have a notorious low turnout in elections.
Singing Jeremy Corbyn’s name in Glastonbury means feck all if the bulk of them end up staying home on election day when 80% of their elderly compatriots never miss a vote.
I'm not sure Corbyn could form one... But even if they put Becket in charge of a gnu then can you really see the libs backing a labour budget... And can you see labour proposing one with all their manifesto promices missing
What concession would the SNP want... Would plaid want similar... I can't see the libs backing Scottish independence
Dup won't support them either
I couldn't see it lasting through a budget
More likley if the conservatives offered a 2nd referendum the libs would go confidence and supply there
No need for a renegotiating period and if it was be out of power of give way on a second referendum I think the conservatives would reluctantly go for the referendum (Boris deal Vs remain)
Not only do they get their deal on the ballot this way but they also control who gets to vote (EU citizens and dropping the age to 16)
In short I don't think a labour minority will be workable and certainly not the 9 months needed for a second referendum
I was thinking about this. His policy is deal in 3 months and ref in 6. Given the speaker's rulings, I'm guessing he'd have to get these through parliament first. I'm guessing if he gets a customs union type deal, he'll get some remainder Tory support, but with some snp+LDs loses, and those numbers may not work out. I also can't see him being able to live with anything other than an increase in social spending and that probably would be a budget that doesn't get many libs or a single Tory.
No one is ripping Tony Blair to shreds on the doorstep. That's absolute bollocks. I'm not in an echo chamber at all, my cosntituency and all around are as blue as it gets and I see what people are saying. I also don't have any social media accounts apart from Facebook and on there I am mostly following opposite groups to see what's being said and discussed. Long life Conservative voters do not like Johnson, there have been loads in MK saying they weren't going out to vote. His success with the party was very much due to entryism. 125,000 members is what the Conservatives had in 2018 and it became 191,000 in 2019. The majority were Leave.eu supporters who signed up in droves after their push .
The Consevatives have moved too far right and have alienated traditional voters especially in the South East where I'd probably say a majority now are opposed to Brexit. All they can squeeze from the 2017 election will be some of the Kippers vote and they have to turn a lot of Labour heartlands from red to blue to get a majority. They will lose at least 10 seats in Scotland and at least another 10 in London & South East and another 3-4 in Wales. For a majority they need another 30 elsewhere. Do you see any of that happening when their only policy to appeal to those heartlands is Brexit and Farage's Brexit party is running alongside? Brace yourself Thrusday 10pm will be another 2017 moment
Another Corbyn defeat?Brace yourself Thrusday 10pm will be another 2017 moment
I cannot say how I feel about him on this forum
Brace yourself Thrusday 10pm will be another 2017 moment
Is that you Richard?
Long enough to deliver a referendum will be enough to swing the next election because Brexit will no longer be a factor. Conservatives have become a one issue party they will get decimated as they have no answer to anything else. If they manage to expand voting rights to 16-17 year olds and EU nationals Conservatives will never get close to winning another election.
Yes a hung parliament with no winner to bulldoze through their policies.
Untill the SNP get their freeeeeedom... Then it's a conservative government for about 50 years
Why would Momentum, which is run by a Jewish man, want to blame the Jews for Corbyn's demise?
I hope so... Swinson backing the conservatives and having a second referendum
Labour ditching Corbyn and getting away from the momentum agenda
6 months later we have the referendum and stay in the EU and a few weeks after that a labour victory with Jess Phillips or Kier starmer
Would be great
Don't see it happening though
Suspect conservatives get a majority of around 20-50
Low enough that the erg and dup votes come into play pushing for the hardest of brexits
If Brexit doesn't materialise they won't. They won't be able to join the EU if UK is still part of it.
There's no support for independence anyway especially since their plan to become sheikhs on oil reserves massively imploded since the last referendum.
Fixed.
Brace yourself Thrusday 10pm will be another 2017 moment
Why would England/Wales/Northern Ireland block Scotland joining the EU?
I can't see beyond this to be honest.
The SNP will get their second ref and the idea of rejoining the EU will be enough to get them their independence.
Leaves the rest of us fecked unfortunately
Fixed.
The media have a part to play but the UK as a whole simply will not support hard left policies. There is decades worth of evidence for this, way before the media became as powerful and influencial as they are now.
I usually stay up on election night. Not this time. Going to sleep like a baby.
Historical evidence doesn't mean there will not be a shift in the future. Young people are crying out for social policies because they're forever in debt, can't get a proper job and have nearly zero chance of getting on the housing ladder. This is what has brough political engagement on massive levels together with the issue of Brexit and climate.
Were you not going to sleep the last election? Everyone was resigned to a Tory majority then too but once that exit poll came out it was just
I don't think anyone could have foreseen the extent of the crash but deregulation to the level it was allowed, was a stupid idea because politicians didn't fully understand the global financial market (as Gordon Brown admitted years later). At the very least, it had the POTENTIAL to cause serious economic issues but it seems various politicians were less focussed on understanding international banking and more focussed on rushing economic growth.
Letting bankers (especially ones who control vast sums of 'money' with minimal controls in place) do what they want was stupid especially given the nature of the bonus structures at the time. At least now, we've got much more controlled bonus structures... much smaller, deferred, clawbacks, etc.
If they leave the UK they'd have to leave the EU and apply to join. The same arguments as 2014 would be surely used if nothing changes on the Brexit front.
True but I can't see it happening. Do hope I'm wrong though, I'm fairly battered from decades of watching politics that I'm probably fairly jaded at this point.
Literally every day Boris does/says something that's so insidious that if it were Corbyn it would be weeks worth of news 
It's all upside after Corbyn.
That's the problem for Labour in a nutshell. People don't like Johnson but they really fecking can't stand Corbyn. So Johnson and the Tories get a pass. That's what being unelectable means.Literally every day Boris does/says something that's so insidious that if it were Corbyn it would be weeks worth of news
No I’m reliably informed nobody could have done better than Corbyn.
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