UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80
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LSE PM & Pendulum model predicts about the same so it’s not a stretch of the imagination.
Polls are largely guesswork when it comes to turnout weighting, new voters, did not vote and the seemingly big factor this election of tactical switching. They can be closer and wider and there are huge amounts of constituency gains and losses within the margin of error.
Social media has hugely influenced young voter engagement especially when it comes to Brexit and climate so to underestimate or downplay their turnout in this election reinforces my personal view that polls are largely wrong and the only one that matters is that on 12th December.l
All that needs to happen is a failure for the Conservatives to get a majority, and then parliament arithmetic and the fact that BJ has alienated everybody will take care of the rest.
Website for those who want to vote tactically but don't know who they should vote for
https://comparethetacticals.com/
it compares the recommendations from all the tactical voting sites.
https://comparethetacticals.com/
it compares the recommendations from all the tactical voting sites.
I keep getting this but I’m not sure how to argue it! Do they have a point?
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Its a myth. The employment figures are skewed because of zero hour contracts and people forced to work some hours otherwise they wouldn’t be elegible to receive benefits. They put disabled people through work assessments and declared people dead through the illnesses keeping them out of work, fit to work. If the economy was so great why are teachers nurses police firefighters etc relying on foodbanks? They were able to find billions of pounds for the DUP when they needed to stay in power. Why not find money to invest in services? They doubled the national debt since coming to power. Where did all that money go? Tax cuts!
But wouldn’t the tories argue that they have reduced the deficit?
Oh Laura...
Well, its half true. You need a good economy to keep the tax rolling in. Arguing whether the Tories or Labour would be better is difficult because it involves a level of analysis that most people can't be arsed getting into. Most people make a gut judgement and then just stick with that.
Generally I try and argue when people say Labour crashed the economy, because that's factually wrong. But opinion based stuff about who runs the economy better over time, I'll happily discuss, but I don't bother trying to change minds.
Echoing a point Stephen Bush made in the New Statesman the other day, its probably better not to look at the absolute values (they can't all be right after all) and instead look at the movement. Most polls showed a Labour rise up until recently, even if its hard to say from where to where. But most polls are suggesting Labour are beginning to flatline. They either need a good week on their own terms, or they need a growing anti-Johnson consensus to form. I think the latter is more likely.
What do you mean?
It popped up on my left wing echo chamber Twitter feed this morning. I like to find something to get outraged with over my tea and crumpets (actually chai soy latte and Greek yogurt with chia seeds).
Thank you for the reply, I just keep getting into debates and I never know what to say when I get the rhetoric of ‘labour crashed the economy and tories have reduced the deficit’ versus ‘tories have doubled the debt’. I don’t know if either are fair assessments.
Don't think there is much lib vote left to squeeze ... Same with the green and brexit
They are all pretty low and like with the SNP and plaid votes at this stage are probably pretty solid (if you have not moved from a small party over weeks of campaigning the last 3 days probably won't see a big swing)
Don't see many votes going from conservatives to labour or vice versa so pretty much labours only hope at this stage is that all the polls are wrong and somehow it ends as a hung parliament and they can find a way to get both the SNP and libs signed up to an agenda (probably plus plaid and greens and any independents)... And even then I can't see the dup ever backing Corbyn ...
At this point I'd guess a working majority for the conservatives ... But not so huge that the erg won't be able to hold the rest of the party to ransom over the trade deals / transition extension
So the worst of all worlds.
Just tell them that actually it was Sajid David and his banker mates that crashed the global economy.
Pretty much... Some rule Britannia bollocks up to the summer break... Not asking for an extension with the EU then 3 or 4 months of cliff edge no deal stuff again
Possibly even an actual no deal this time as there might be the votes in parliament for it
If you cut money that public services need from government budget and don't spend you do reduce the deficit but if you give tax cuts at the same time it means that surplus money that could have been going to spending or to paying down the debt is instead going to corporations and individuals.
Gross debt as % of GDP was 75.6% in 2010 and it is 85.2% now. If the Conservatives plan to spend without tax increases the deficit will increase, and so will the debt. In reality they plan to spend very little and give more tax cuts which again will leave less money for spending so austerity will continue and so will the rise of the national debt.
Also the below:
Yeah, I don't see major movement from the other parties to Labour being likely this late in the day. I certainly don't see a Labour Government at this point. However the Tories are still on a knife edge for whether they get a majority or not. Depending on how efficient the vote works out, the Tories might need an 8% lead to get a slim majority. Even if the polls are right, that's still within the margin of error. And of course the pollsters are nearly all using new methodologies this time round as a result of their failings in 2017, so its hard to know how accurate they are.
Thank you for the response!
It was fecking stupid to take on an early election from the opposition, after Boris and right wing press did their part in making it people vs parliament there was nothing to gain for opposition parties (bar SNP).
This election is going to be a total shit show. At least it will be the end of Corbyn finally but sadly not the end of Boris.
Nah, this is the end for JC. I see no reason he would want to stay on either.
I think Corbyn's heart has completely been in the right place throughout all of this. He's one of the only politicians whose motives and genuineness I don't call into question.
The party will be blatantly going nowhere after this election on Thursday, and I believe he'll step down.
The party will be blatantly going nowhere after this election on Thursday, and I believe he'll step down.
It would be the end of Corbyn but I don’t see momentum going anywhere anytime soon.
I think when people look back there was a time just after parliament was prorogued illegally and no deal looked likley... At that point there was the votes to get through a no confidence motion
I think there was probably after that vote a gnu with either Clarke or Beckett that could have carried the votes for a 2nd referendum (Mays deal or remain)
And a general election after that
But the insurance on Corbyn leading and him renegotiating an exit deal meant they couldn't get the votes
I think not compromising then for the gnu will be looked back on as the opportunity missed
They will disappear over time once Corbyn steps down. They have nobody else to get behind - it was a one time deal. The fact is that the UK simply does not support their type of policies and probably never will.
I think he will stay around just long enough to anoint a momentum mouthpiece as a successor and if the ehrc is to be published soon he will be kept around to carry the can
So going back to Broxtowe:
YouGov MRP:
The differences in recommendations are basically going to ensure the Conservatives win various seats.
Quite agree.
As history tells us, the UK does not favour a far left wing party. That is a simple fact.
Neil Kinnock realised this and declared war on those pushing Labour to the hard left as did those behind New Labour.
The only way for Labour to flourish is for the party to modernise and elect a leader who appeals to the majority of the electorate.
It requires a strong turn out from young voters to give Labour a chance imo and when was the last time that ever happened?
It would take a lot more than that. Labour are going to be in a terrible situation after this election.
I expect a massive push from momentum to get either wrong daily or pidcock elected
So going back to Broxtowe:
YouGov MRP:
The differences in recommendations are basically going to ensure the Conservatives win various seats.
The sites all have their own polling data and models that may be showing drastically different results, hence the contradictory recommendations. I agree it's unhelpful though. The YouGov predicted looks a little weird to me though, who is Soubry drawing support from? Seems unlikely her presence should result in a larger Tory margin of victory.
Nah, I think Tory turnout will be a little lower than normal as people expect it to be a forgone conclusion. I also think there are enough Tory voters who hate Boris and will protest vote. It gives Labour a chance (clearly not for a majority), but at least ruling out a Tory majority. It just depends on the young coming out and voting (by young I mean 18-26 bracket).
They may do but in doing so they are essentially backing the complete distruction of the Labour party for at least a generation. There has to come a time that they realise that the only way they can actually change things in the way they want is to support a moderate candidate who actually has a chance to win an election who then can bring in a lite version of their policies. It's either that or self-immolation.
Young people never come out though. At least not in the numbers to make a difference. They had a chance to do this when Corbyn first got in, he had a lot of sway with younger folk. He has blown it completely and has lost whatever movement there had been in those first months. His absolutely terrible handling of the Brexit situation has caused support to melt away from all but the hard liners.
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