That was the point...
Well yes but I dont think the younger vote coming out in force would be enough anyway to save Labour at this point. They are a complete lost cause while Corbyn remains as leader for all age ranges.
UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80
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Well yes but I dont think the younger vote coming out in force would be enough anyway to save Labour at this point. They are a complete lost cause while Corbyn remains as leader for all age ranges.
I have to say that I know absolutely nothing about Pidcock, assuming that is his/her name. I am probably missing the point here.
I wish that were true but I don't think it is. Momentum have taken over the Labour party and won't let go now, and I expect Labour to move further left if anything. Eventually an electable left or centrist party will form, but it could be a long wait.
Given how the momentum and Corbyn crowd talk about Blair and the Blair governments I don't see them doing anything other than fighting
It's been obvious for years that they have been trying their best to get control of the nec and other internal party structures... They have been digging the trenches for a long fight
Either it will be another Kinnock type transition (i.e. a long fight.. and who knows perhaps even Stephen Kinnock will be involved for added irony)
Or a big chunk of the plp will simply quit and form the official opposition (new new labour or something like that) ... Tom watson was influential in stopping apparently a lot of MPs doing that before and if momentum get a mouthpiece in charge and try to lurch even further left (no doubt blaming the Jews and Blair for corbyns demise) I can see a lot of MPs jumping ship
One of momentums anointed mouthpieces ... She's one of the favourites to succeed jezbollah
Won't Johnson just put the existing agreed deal to parliament again and that will be that?
Thank you. I still know nothing about her. Longbailey seems pretty feisty though and can sustain an argument.
I disagree with that tbh. But i've given up even attempting to argue anything anymore with politics.
That may be true (I'm no expert on the inner workings of the Labour Party) - I'd imagine that if what you say will happen, happens then MP's will jump ship very quickly and a new party will be formed - I honestly can't see many of them sticking around if Labour try to go even further to the left. The Tories have been let off the hook by Corbyn, they will be absolutely loving it if Labour went even further to the left.
He doesnt have the support of anywhere near the amount of people that he needs, that seems pretty obvious at this point - if they come through with a fantastic election result I'll happily eat my words but my impression right now is an extremely negative outcome for Labour and most of that is due to Corbyn. I should add that I say this with a big amount of sadness as I absolutely hate the Tories.
Yes... And no
The existing transition deal says a trade deal will.be concluded by Jan 2021
And if there is to be an extension it has to be requested in summer 2020
He has said he won't extend
Most trade experts suggest 7 years not 1 is a more realistic timeframe for the negotiation
If there is no extension asked for
And there is no deal by Jan 2021
It defaults to no deal
So yeah more of the same from the last few years I expect
Honestly think the same would occur for any Labour leader right now, it's been happening for years and before Corbyn took over. The media want Brexit to happen and they've been smearing Corbyn from the very start. I get frustrated with the guy, but I have a deep lying hatred for the majority of the media right now and the Tories in general so i'm compelled to vote Labour.
So going back to Broxtowe:
YouGov MRP:
The differences in recommendations are basically going to ensure the Conservatives win various seats.
I'm a bit sceptical about tactical voting. If you look at Deltapoll's constituency level polls, a lot of London seats are like this one in the Cities of Westminster & London. Labour finished second there in 2017 with the Lib Dems a distant third, so you might think that you should go Labour for a tactical vote. But polling by Deltapoll is saying that the Lib Dems have leaped into second place, so perhaps if you want to vote tactically you should go Lib Dem.
But of course, both Labour and the Lib Dems want the seat, so both are arguing that they're the party you should tactically vote for. And to make matters worse, I tried this seat in 4 tactical voting sites and 2 said vote Lib Dems, 2 said vote Labour.
Leaving it down to voters to do tactical voting isnt really a great option in my view because they're guessing the outcome and then voting in line (or against) it. If the parties came together and pulled candidates out, that would obviously work, but in the absence of that I wouldn't be surprised if we saw relatively few results where it was clearly down to tactical voting.
Another Labour leader may have dealt with Brexit much better and held the Tories to account which would have put them in a much stronger position than where they are now, another leader also may not have had the controversial past that Corbyn had and also be willing to compromise in order to get support and attract non-hardline voters. Corbyn has single handedly destroyed any chance Labour may have had in my opinion. The Tories have had a free run over the last few years which is shameful given the utter clusterfeck they made of the Brexit negotiations and have been allowed to shape the narrative in anyway they wished due to there being no effective opposition.
You can blame the influence of the media but what is Labour's message? What actually is their view on the biggest issue in the UK right now? They have failed to put this forward in a coherant way and that is as much their fault as it is the medias for perhaps not really getting behind them. The Tories are bloody awful with a hopeless leader but even they have a much clearer message than Labour have - Get Brexit done, that is all you hear because that is all they need to say.
Brexit is a shambles, there is no winning outcome. Say you go leave and piss off a lot of your base, say you go remain and rule out any chance of getting brexit voters or remain on the fence like he has done with the possiblity of pleasing both sides. He was shit pre Referendum, but post Referendum there is no correct way of dealing with it. It's lose, lose no matter what you do.
Right thanks. I didn't know we could ask for an extension once in the transition period, so I see what you mean.
You can't sit on the fence on an issue as devisive as Brexit. That way you lose everybody which I think is what has happened. The Tories were there for the taking as soon as it became increasingly clear just how much of a disaster Brexit will be.
Honestly don't think thats the case. I'd love Brexit not to happen but fact is there's a significant amount of people who still want it and haven't changed their mind. None of the polls done since Brexit has seen any significant change in thinking.
Yeah... The conservatives have either been very good at cutting through with get brexit done... Or labour have been very bad at pointing out the reality of no deal headlines taking over from probably April next year
Probably a mix of both ... The reductive nature of the Cummings slogans and the fact that labours own brexit position is shambolic and they just try and move the convo on asap
That is because Labour failed to convince people who voted for Brexit that actually it's a terrible idea. That is what they should have tried to do. The Tories have succeeded in making themselves the guys who can sort the mess (at least that is how they are selling themselves)
Imagine what the reaction would be if the Spanish PM had said the same about our "ex-pats"
This is wrong. It will not be the case in this election. They are fully engaged and will come out in this election. You only need to take a glance at social media and see the millions of political engaged users. Brexit and climate has been a catalyst and celebrities with tens of millions of especially young followers have endorsed registering to vote and taking part in the election. I am certain I am not wrong and all of you who have resigned yourselves to a Tory majority will be very surprised at the outcome. Forget the polls the papers and the media, stuff on the ground is a lot different and that's where the Labour battle is, engaging with people on a personal level.
I don't see it. Brexit is one of the most emotional and weird subjects in politics right now. Everyones entrenched in their opinion and they won't budge. You can be as logical and point out flaws but neither side will see it. The media are also very right wing right now as well and anything remotely negative about Brexit gets accused of being 'fake news' by the right. I mean, all you have to do is look at todays papers front pages to see what I mean. It's mental.
Probably get a round of applause in Spain and some extra votes in an election
I sincerely hope you are right.
Neither are fair assessments. The 2010 crash was a global crises that wouldn't have been averted by any government, so anyone disparaging Labour for the crash itself is being disingenuous. It is arguable however that with economically "normal" spending between 2000 and 2006 the country could have had a large budget surplus of over £50b per annum by the end of that period (instead of a £45b per annum deficit) along with very little net debt (c. £100b). The Labour government between 2000 and 2006 increased spending on public services at an average of 6.4% per year, which was around double GDP growth at that time.
The question is how the crash would have affected the economy if at the time of it occurring we had a minimum £50b budget surplus and total £100b net debt, rather than a £45b deficit and £550b debt. My view is the effect would be much reduced irrespective of your political leanings in that situation. If you're left leaning (Keynesian) then the fiscal headroom available in that scenario to enact large scale infrastructure spending (e.g. £100b per annum for 4 years) to stimulate the economy, whilst still maintaining some semblance of fiscal responsibility would have reduced the impact hugely.
If you're right leaning economically then the interest bill that has been paid over the last decade (c. £470b) could have been reduced to less than £200b (assuming £300b extra debt 2008 - 2015 ending the first term with no deficit and a total debt of around £400b). This large saving could have been invested in public services, in infrastructure spending and/or in tax cuts that would encourage further investment and growth (I would imagine a combination of all three).
Again it generally depends on your political leanings, but it's definitely nonsense to suggest the crash was caused by anyone (unless you're saying it was caused by US regulators / credit agencies). It's also worth noting that it's a bit of a double standard to criticise austerity and to also criticise the doubling of debt. You can criticise the total debt and be a proponent of deeper austerity or you can be a proponent of less austerity and more debt. However it's cynical for someone to criticise both.
I am not so sure, could perhaps see Jeremy hanging on, but within a Labour Party split into geographical as well ideological entities. I could envisage that if defeated there will be a parting of the waves. Labour with such open-wounds and ideas differences surfacing it could not now stand as one National Party in England therefore;
Northern Labour Party - predominately based in and around 'the Red Wall' Constituencies which will try to recapture the disenchanted former Brexit voting populace, once 'Brexit is Done'. A slightly right of centre political positioning and focused on the needs of the Trans-Pennine Areas (includes parts of Cumbria, Lancashire, Gtr. Manchester, Derbyshire, Yorkshire and Humberside, and parts of both East and West Midlands)
and
Southern Labour Party - predominately based in and around London with a 'Islington Central' leadership- essentially remain voters who seek to fight a on-going resistance-type/EU reunification campaign in and around the capital. Will be politically left of centre, in some areas and more liberally inclined elsewhere, also may stretch to cover West Country and East Anglia
The existing Labour Parties in Wales and Scotland may stay affiliated with one or both of the two new North/South Labour.
Empire nostalgia. For a lot of Brits its one rule for them and another rule for everyone else.
Oh and anyone pissed off by Boris words, just remember this is Labour policy
Reasonable, except if the Tories had been in power 2000-2006 they wouldn't have saved any surplus they would have spunked it on tax cuts for the already well-off, with much of that money spent abroad or on foreign products.
Hard Brexit & Tories. Fcuk this stupid country
Imagine Ian Duncan-Smith as Prime Minister. The cnut.
This is nonsense.
Wow... Your echo chamber is strong even Novara media are not confident about winning
Though it seems the important thing is ignoring the fact people don't want to talk to you and ripping Tony Blair to shreds.
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They really do live in their own little bubble.
Genuinely think it is going to be the best part of another decade before the Tories are removed from power. Utterly depressing. But hey lets say bad things about Blair to make us all feel better.
I hope I'm wrong, I'd be very happy if I was. This is just the impression I have of the current situation.
I'm more optimistic... I think with a bad brexit (and I suspect it will be)
A few political scandles (a given with Boris)
And a centre ground focused labour party with somebody like Jess Phillips in charge (this is the bit I'm far less confident of as I expect a momentum mouthpiece )
Then I can see labour winning the next election... Just like they would have done this one with a more appealing leader
I am not sure how well Philips would do as a leader. All well and good doing what she does on the back benches (and I think she does a good job), but not sure how effective she would be as a leader in all honesty.
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