Will Corbyn resign if Labour fails to get majority in this election?
UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80
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No, Labour need to appeal to Murdoch and his billionaire cronies to gain positive coverage. If the voting public can't see through this then any party with the aim of reducing inequality will get negative coverage.
The BBC bias is so obviously consistently for the Tories that to state otherwise is ridiculous. It's probably 99-1 in favour for Tory leaning reports. There has been some analysis on this fact rather than anecdotal evidence.
As long as their is a hole in my ass, sturgeon can forget scrapping trident, nukes ain't going anywhere until the whole world agrees and let's face it thst ain't happening. I'm all for nuclear weapons going and after reading about oppenheimer I understand why.
3 weeks before the 2015 election Labour was leading the majority of polls, they lost by 6.6%. Polls have been horrific in the last 3 elections and should be taken with whole block of salt. Especially with a december election and almost unique political climate that we have at the moment, predicting the turnouts is an impossible job.
The difference between a 55% 18-24 y/o turnout and a 65% turnout could make a world of difference.
I don't think so... They will keep him around to chuck under the ehrc bus when that rolls over the horizon
Where are these polls being spun ? One of the tweets being used as a example of labour activists saying Labour can win a majority is this -
All I've seen so far is people getting very depressed that Labour didn't get a bump from the manifesto launch and then other people pointing out the same happened 2017(No talk of a Labour majority been in the bag etc). You seem to be annoyed that Labour activists and the party aren't openly depressed at the recent polling.
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Even though that’s true, the leader you pick still makes a massive difference. Why do the media smears about Corbyn work so well? Because they’re generally quite believable given his past beliefs and actions, and secondly because he’s bloody terrible at shutting them down when he gets the chance.
Can you imagine the press getting away with calling Blair a communist and terrorist sympathizer? He’d have taken them to pieces in every interview where the subject came up in any way. Corbyn gets great opportunities to change the narrative about him, and just wastes them time after time by refusing to do anything other than try to talk about what he wants to talk about. Sorry Jeremy, that’s not how politics works.
I think it's very fair to be wary of the topline numbers after the last few elections, but they're definitely still useful to see if opinion shifts. For example, back in 2017 Labour started getting swings of up to 5% at around this point, and whilst they still underestimated their strength at the topline, they did point to a genuine shift in the campaign. Something to watch over the next week, anyway.
Momentum will double down with pidcock or wrong daily... Or heaven forbid burgon
And if that happens I could see half the plp splitting off or joining the libs
Erm not only because there’s 3 weeks to go but because you never know what the turnout will be. A cold snap could wipe out the 65+ vote for example. A lot of disillusioned people in dire circumstances that have never vote can decide that there’s hope for them too and others too can recognise the importance of this election which will determine the direction this country takes fo decades. Famously Robbie Williams is voting for the first time ever. The homeless are being offered addresses at local businesses so they can register to vote. I wouldn’t expect you to know any of this because you’re surrounded bu the media bubble. You need to see what’s happening on the streets.
What would you suggest for Labour anyway, that they should just give up now?
Everyone should start by familiarising themselves with facts.
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What would you suggest for Labour anyway, that they should just give up now?
Pretty much... Then actually kick the antisemites out and hope they can pursuade somebody like Jess Phillips to run for leader because if they go for a wrong daily or burgon they won't get close to power for another decade
The trouble is the brain rain is already happening with the Tories at the helm, considering the swathes of Doctors abandoning the UK or at the very least the NHS, not to mention the hit the country's scientific community and reputation will take post Brexit. Unless your benchmark for talent are investment bankers and Russian Oligarchs buying up developments by the acre, then yes we'll be in good stead to hang on to them with the Tories.
You know what's going to happen with Brexit, right?
After the next election, spending is going to increase, the day-to-day lives of most people will improve, and all the credit will go to Brexit.
After the next election, spending is going to increase, the day-to-day lives of most people will improve, and all the credit will go to Brexit.
Nah.. us remoaners won't forgive that easy... Everything will be brexits fault
And I fully expect either the libs or a new centre left party made up of libs and centrist labour (depending who the next labour leader is) to be the European democrats and the fight to rejoin will start on 1st feb
Erm nah. They’ll fight to the last second of last minute of the last hour of the last day because only then there’s nothing more that can be done.
You and your loser mentality on the other hand can throw away your vote and contribute to getting another Brexit backer in parliament.
I'm voting for a remain party because I would like to remain
There are a lot of people like you who justify themselves with I’ve done my bit but oh well nothing could be done. Only Labour can beat the guaranteed Brexit backing Tory in Ashfield, votes for any other party are throwaways. You might as well stick your name on the ballot paper you have as much chance as the Lib Dem does. I hope you come to your senses in time but I don’t have hope.
I can’t believe people look at the last 9 years under the conservatives and think ‘yeah they deserve another shot’.
If your constituency tactically speaking would historically be likely to have labour be the one to beat Tory, would you change your mind?
All we need is a second referendum.
I think it's fair to be wary of their overall conclusions but even when they've been out, they've generally been out by fairly small proportions at most. Typically, for example, people will always talk about Brexit and Trump as examples of how you can't trust the polls, but in both cases the actual percentages weren't out by all that much. So even if a lot of polls we're seeing now are overestimating the Tory vote by, say, 4 or 5%, the Tories will still probably win even if with a reduced majority.
I doubt it. And people will still make excuses for him.
Actually they are 3rd favourites
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/constituencies/next-uk-general-election-constituencies/ashfield
Plus I know the candidate for labour and In my opinion she is an idiot... Wouldn't want her as a representative which in fairness I think the fact that the police have been called on her and her mum (for assaulting a labour member in the local office) goes some way to showing how shambolic I think she would be
https://order-order.com/people/natalie-fleet/
https://order-order.com/2019/11/15/labour-candidates-campaign-reported-police-office-bust/
As you may be aware despite it being a safe labour seat traditionally a combination of Natalie and Corbyn now have labour at odds of 6/1 in the constituiency
Joint Favourites are the conservatives and an independent at 5/4
Jason (the independent) was formally a lib candidate who was stood down over allegations of child sex offences (there was insufficient evidence for a criminal trial)... As I've told Jason to his face it surprised me that if somebody made those allegations he has not sued them for slander because that would seem logical if the charges were without substance... And Jason says there was zero evidence and it was politically motivated... Yet does not sue.. seems strange to me ... I'd have thought anybody in that situation would take legal action.
I wouldn't vote for the libs if they had reinstated him
And Jason backs brexit on no deal terms if necessary
So basically I'll exercise my vote as I see fit.. but Natalie flint has no chance either and does not represent a party who is committed to remain
So yeah my only options are the libs and greens and after talking to both candidates I'm voting lib
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If the Conservatives get a majority, he should.
In 2017 the Tories were between 18-20% ahead with 3 weeks to go. They were 8-12% with 2 weeks to go. 4-7% one week to to. Then between 7-13% days before the election. The actual figure at the only poll that counted was 2.5% in the end.
So forgive them for not giving a shit and focusing on campaigning far and wide across the country.
Not aimed at you personally but anyone who bases their information intake on Guido is an idiot at best.
Odds mean feck all, they’re not an exact science. Only Labour, incumbents in that constituency can beat the Tories. Your options are an offer of 2nd ref from the party that has a chance of power. Remain from the parties that have zero chance of power.
I know it’s tough trying to understand the logic behind the vote but just try.
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Look I have the right to vote for who I want and for the reasons I choose
Given the racism I have had family members suffer even if labour were a strong remain party I would never vote for a party who have reached the level of evidence to trigger a formal investigation from the ehrc... A party like that is not fit to govern
So labour brexit and ukip are out as I consider them racist (though only one has reached the point of an ehrc formal investigation)
Plus I left the labour party as I don't agree with Corbyn and the new direction so why the hell would I vote for them
Brexit is the dominant issue for me so it's either somebody who backs the Boris deal or somebody who backs a hard brexit if I want to vote for a candidate who has a realistic chance of winning
Neither of those appeal so I'm left with the greens (people's vote) or libs (remain) and after talking to the candidates even though it's extremely unlikely either could win I'd sooner back the libs
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Absolutely, you have every right to vote whomever you want. I only laid out the logical solution based on your Brexit position. I could not possibly know or understand personal reasons for your vote.
Let's hope so.
Labour won't win in ashfield though... I know it should be a safe labour seat... And it probably will be again with a new leader but Corbyn is toxic round here
He cannot be that toxic if Labour increased their vote share in 2017 in Ashfield.
Conservatives banking on Brexiteer votes have another thing coming. The Brexit Party will get most of them and Labour will win again with vote shares similar to 2015 when the Kippers got fair few votes.
I just tried to place a bet of £150 on Labour at 6/1 but it didn’t allow me more than £20. Since you know your constituency so well do you want to take the other £130 at same odds? Free money...
This
Apart from by the looks of it one of the self claimed pragmatic centrists in here who has done nothing but preach compromise over ideology. Some people make up a lot of bollocks to fit any view huh.
I'll be voting Lib Dem despite finding Swinson offensive and disagreeing with the Lib Dems on policy. I find it sad but amusing that in the end It'll be the compromising self proclaimed pragmatic centrists refusing to vote tactically that will give BoJo his majority. They'll feel all chuffed about it too because then they can have a go at Corbyn.
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Done
@Ultimate Grib @sun_tzu fair play to both of you, money where your mouths are.
surely in the spirit of the thread, you should donate the money to the others choice of charity? Or even better, sun_tzu could buy turtle wax for his new Ferrari and ultimate grib could just pay the money over in extra tax
surely in the spirit of the thread, you should donate the money to the others choice of charity? Or even better, sun_tzu could buy turtle wax for his new Ferrari and ultimate grib could just pay the money over in extra tax
Sure.. @Ultimate Grib when I win feel free to donate to the campaign against antisemitism
https://antisemitism.uk/
Sweet. Depending on the outcome of the GE I’ll get you to donate the £780 to a foodbank charity if Tories win a majority. They’re going to need it...
No probs.
The Labour party's position has always been to support the successor to the Vanguard programme (Trident is the missile the subs carry not the actual submarine itself) and Dreadnought is well into construction now. Don't let the Labour leader's own belief which is entirely honourable cloud the facts. Labour have always supported shipbuilding in Barrow unlike the tories who helped create 13,000 redundancies in the late 80's early 90's due to their absolute hatred of the working man and manufacturing in particular. However due to the rise of xenophobia and racism which I'm seeing more and more from folk who believe in the brexit bullshit and the pathetic rhetoric of getting their country back I believe the tories will walk this seat. I mean ffs, one of the most deprived areas in the North West electing a tory. It's fecking sickening tbh
Why don't you both donate to the Tories & get a game of tennis with Boris?
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