Laura Kuenssberg is political editor. It's been like this since she got the post.
UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80
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Laura Kuenssberg is political editor. It's been like this since she got the post.
Well, a higher proportion of youngsters voted last time round and the Conservatives didn't win so I don't think you can state that so confidently. On the other hand we'll need a lot more than 300,000 kids voting to stop the lying Russian turd winning a majority this time round.
I thought Labour had a relatively good week.
This is a actually a pretty good experiment in just how much a party can feck a country and yet keep getting elected. hahah
I noticed on bbc news at 10 last night the edit was similarly skewed.
I thought Labour had a relatively good week.
I'll admit to being a little bit out of the loop over the last few weeks. Apologies if this is a silly question, but what are the chances of Lib-Lab coalition?
Literally 0.
The highest coalition probability right now is Conservative/Lib Dem with the agreement of a Second referendum with Boris's deal on the card.
So the best chance of avoiding Brexit is to vote Conservative? Feck me, that's a turn up for the books.
There are no chances of anything other than a Tory majority.
What!? No. Lib Dem, Greens, SNP or Labour if you want to avoid Brexit.
It is looking likely according to the polls.
But if they get in again after 10 years of decline, chaos and deceit then the UK truly deserve them.
By the looks of things, it'll either be an outright Tory win, or a Tory-Lib coalition.
A vote for Labour or the Greens will likely be a protest vote at best. Maybe I could be persuaded to vote Lib, but they've got no chance of winning in most constituancies.
You can't base your vote on what you think the total national outcome will be without considering you constituency outcome.
Voting Labour will not be a protest vote. Green probably would though. Although it all depends on your constituency?
WANTED: English people willing to emigrate to Scotland.
This marvelous opportunity is available to any people living in England who wish to pack up their Volvo and travel North of the border to the last place in the UK that doesn't seem to be completely fecking mental.
These vacancies are infinite and are available to anyone with the ability to pay taxes so that the rest of us can get back in the dole queue line.
The area surrounding Dumfries will be converted into one large Pret a Manger to help our new residents become acclimated to their new atmosphere, and daily screenings of Still Game will help you learn our alien language.
Limited time only. Must supply own wimple.
This marvelous opportunity is available to any people living in England who wish to pack up their Volvo and travel North of the border to the last place in the UK that doesn't seem to be completely fecking mental.
These vacancies are infinite and are available to anyone with the ability to pay taxes so that the rest of us can get back in the dole queue line.
The area surrounding Dumfries will be converted into one large Pret a Manger to help our new residents become acclimated to their new atmosphere, and daily screenings of Still Game will help you learn our alien language.
Limited time only. Must supply own wimple.
You believe they won’t strive to fulfill every manifesto commitment?
This is the reason why polls are fixed in Cons favour for a long time, so people wanting to avoid “chaos” or “hung parliament” vote for the likely winner.
Base your vote on what you want it to achieve, don’t waste it based on voodo palm readings and crystal balls.
Was a similar gap at this point in 2017, still a bit early to say there's been no shift after the manifesto. But I think all things considered it looks likely there'll be at least some swing to the Tories.
i've been too lazy to check this.. have any polls done crosstabs based on the 2017 turnout/vote?
BBC have created a Fact Check article. The two facts they check for Boris are "we have 5000 more doctors" and "we've built 240k new homes" which the article says are close to the truth.
Nothing about the broken affordable homes pledge (which is what the fecking question was about) nor his blatant lie about the 40 new hospitals that he keeps peddling, which has been debunked by everyone except the BBC.
I'd say "feck the Tories" but that would be like expecting a leopard to change his spots. But the BBC? feck the BBC. feck them to Kingdom fecking Come because for a state broadcaster they're so far up the Tories arses it's unbelievable. I don't know who's making these decisions but I can take a good guess.
It's laughable that they're accused of being left leaning. They're not. They like to pretend that they hold left leaning values but it's just a facade.
Nothing about the broken affordable homes pledge (which is what the fecking question was about) nor his blatant lie about the 40 new hospitals that he keeps peddling, which has been debunked by everyone except the BBC.
I'd say "feck the Tories" but that would be like expecting a leopard to change his spots. But the BBC? feck the BBC. feck them to Kingdom fecking Come because for a state broadcaster they're so far up the Tories arses it's unbelievable. I don't know who's making these decisions but I can take a good guess.
It's laughable that they're accused of being left leaning. They're not. They like to pretend that they hold left leaning values but it's just a facade.
Can somebody explain something to me re: labours brexit position.
They are putting their new, renegotiated deal against remain in the second ref. So their plan is to go negotiate a new deal with the EU. The EU, it is widely assumed, want the U.K. to remain. So, if the EU know this ‘new deal’ is to be put against a second ref, surely they will be horrible to negotiate with, giving labour no ground on the negotiation table. So the choice will be; shocking deal vs second ref? Which will end up as second ref?
They are putting their new, renegotiated deal against remain in the second ref. So their plan is to go negotiate a new deal with the EU. The EU, it is widely assumed, want the U.K. to remain. So, if the EU know this ‘new deal’ is to be put against a second ref, surely they will be horrible to negotiate with, giving labour no ground on the negotiation table. So the choice will be; shocking deal vs second ref? Which will end up as second ref?
The correct answer for everyone is a simple one: vote for whoever can beat the Tories in your constituency. After that, we'll see what happens.
And even if there's a slight swing, I'm not sure it's all that much of a win in Labour. They were able to get away with 2017 not being perceived as a disaster purely because expectations had been so dire going into the vote. But they really need to be looking to actually win this time - especially since they're still touting themselves as a party that can conceivably get a majority - and if they don't then it'll be a failed election.
If the EU want the UK to stay and know whatever they offer will be put to a ref, why the feck would they offer a shit deal? Haven't you gotten this back to front? @T00lsh3d
It's difficult to tell what the EU want to an extent: for as much as Brexit's been a headache for them they're also aware that the UK has often been a troublesome partner in EU affairs, and so us leaving may not be the worst thing in the world. But, yes, for the reasons you state, I'm unsure as to how good an idea a confirmatory referendum is. Or how Labour will actually campaign if it comes to such a vote.
Because any confirmatory vote will presumably be between Remain and the deal. So if the EU still want us to stay, a shite deal is the easiest way for them to achieve that. And if it's a dreadful deal, it's a potentially difficult position for Labour to advocate in any referendum.
Labour wants customs union minimum and single market as likely. EU won’t say no to those things. Maybe people just don’t want to br politically aligned and will vote for that instead of remaining.Visit the Brexit thread there’s many explanations.
Against 2017 vote yes, most recent one for Opinium here - https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-20th-november-2019/ (scroll down for excel link to full tables, "VI recode" tab for crosstabs)
Not the latest YouGov but most recent on their site (which has same Lab/Con topline anyway) - https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...ument/u9n27k5219/Sky_TheTimes_VI_191119_w.pdf
Most of the big ones should do. As to whether any track voters in 2017 that are currently non-voters for 2019, not sure.
Relax.
Because the ref is new deal vs remain?
Whatever intentions they have, I don't see how they could fulfil them.
Basing your income on just taxing companies or the rich or excessive borrowing I don't see working and these are not just small sums.
I am aware you don't want to talk about Brexit but it all stems from that - getting a trade deal is 100% impossible while still a member of the EU, then of course these ridiculous timeframes. Stating this position immediately puts doubts into the rest of the manifesto as it is clear this has not been thought through, what else is not thought through.
If the UK is neither a member of the EU plus having onerous regulations on business like "punishing" successful businesses or being forced to give a percentage of your stock or having to have a third of your board members being staff or compulsory union membership of your staff and so on is not exactly going to promote investment in the country.
In the manifesto there is no costing for leaving the EU and no costing for nationalisation expecting current shareholders to accept government gilts for shares at a price to be determined by who, as soon as nationalisation is feared the stockmarket price will collapse.
It might sound great for everyone to have more money by it being shared about but sounds more like a disaster waiting to happen.
Good intentions are just not enough.
Hm, the 2 seem to be using very different turnout models. Opinium has between 70 and 85% of Labour voters staying loyal, wth Tories at 84%, but has a topline of 47-28. Yougov has a Lbour loyalty of only 67% and a Tory loyalty of 87%, but has a 42-30 topline.
Opinium also has it relatively close among under 35s which doesn't seem right (38-31), especially since they show a wider gap for 35-45. Yougov has the usual age trend.
Both have th Lib Dems with 63% loyalty, and, interestingly an equal split to the Tories and Labour among those who jumped ship.
Tax & borrow works for every country why wouldn’t it work for us? We’re in the shitter anyway so why not give getting out of it a go and if it doesn’t work we can come back to the shitter
I’m not worried about any Brexit impact if Labour get in power because the outcome will be BRINO or remain. If you cannot accept that there’s no point discussing anything.
Renationalisations would be completed bonds for shares as it has been done in the past. Costs aren’t just wasted if those plans go ahead because if you’re paying X amount of money you’re getting an asset worth X amount minus possibly any premium you have paid on top to acquire it. You’ve spent X but still have X or very close to it on your balance sheet.
You should read the grey book if you want to find out more about costings. https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Funding-Real-Change-1.pdf
Ok, I think I got it. Opinium have weighted 2017 Labour voters as 70% of 2017 Tory voters, when the actual election had it above 94%. Yougov has it much much closer (93%).
Tax & borrow works for every country why wouldn’t it work for us? We’re in the shitter anyway so why not give getting out of it a go and if it doesn’t work we can come back to the shitter
I’m not worried about any Brexit impact if Labour get in power because the outcome will be BRINO or remain. If you cannot accept that there’s no point discussing anything.
Renationalisations would be completed bonds for shares as it has been done in the past. Costs aren’t just wasted if those plans go ahead because if you’re paying X amount of money you’re getting an asset worth X amount minus possibly any premium you have paid on top to acquire it. You’ve spent X but still have X or very close to it on your balance sheet.
You should read the grey book if you want to find out more about costings. https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Funding-Real-Change-1.pdf
It's the extent of borrowing and the ambitious tax receipts. I've read the grey book already. There are other costs that are not there but there are already enough problems as it is without digging deeper.
BRINO is not in the manifesto, only cherry-picking and it reminds me of three years ago. The other point to this is do you seriously think that Leavers will vote for Labour if they believe their choice is between remain and remain with no vote.
Things can get better but things can also get a lot worse.
As with the nationalisations and Brexit , companies policy -it is all done on the assumption that the other party will agree with whatever Labour say.
Either Labour think the public are gullible or those running Labour are themselves gullible, I suspect it is both.
The Tories are there for the taking and imo Labour are going to mess up .
You've missed out that Labour guarantee to agree a deal in three months.
About sums it up:
People in abusive relationships often struggle to leave
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