U.S. Presidential Race: Official Thread

Obama or McCain/Democrat or Republican..you decide

  • McCain

    Votes: 14 7.5%
  • Obama

    Votes: 173 92.5%

  • Total voters
    187
  • Poll closed .
could Obama have got away with the Shia sunni mix up?

now this BS about Ayers...what about the Real relationship McCain has with Liddy?

could Obama have got away with that ridiculous mix up of a speech above that everyone is laughing about....Obama would be toast.



Could Obama have gotten off so lightly, with people in his crowd screaming 'Kill Him'. I couldn't even count, on one hand, how many times I've seen a referrence to those incidents at the mainstream media networks.

Yet, the Rev. Wright incident was excentuated by an invitation of the insane pastor to the Press Club in Washington DC.

Just because Obama is able to dodge bullets like Neo in the Matrix, it doesn't mean he hasn't taken less fire.


Or it has looked something like this for Obama:

 
Could Obama have gotten off so lightly, with people in his crowd screaming 'Kill Him'. I couldn't even count, on one hand, how many times I've seen a referrence to those incidents at the mainstream media networks.

Yet, the Rev. Wright incident was excentuated by an invitation of the insane pastor to the Press Club in Washington DC.

Just because Obama is able to dodge bullets like Neo in the Matrix, it doesn't mean he hasn't taken less fire.

well put Bob....when Obama repeated those 'kill me' taunts......it got to me....an African American candidate...so much in his speeches like JFK,Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King.....


we are witnessing the most exciting politician perhaps in an entire lifetime........he brings so much hope...yet we must also be so afraid...because it is certain some right wing moron will make an attempt on his life.
 
Oh sure, the media coverage has clearly been unfair towards the Obama campaign during this race. :rolleyes:

There has been a lot of BS spouted in this thread (myself included) but that really does take the biscuit.

The coverage was biased toward McCain until late August, when McCain went off the rails and started lying. He offended the press. They held him in very high esteem and he let them down. They responded like any other betrayed friend and attacked. He brought it on himself. Accept it. Your man is a cnut, through and through. He crashed his campaign the same way he crashed all those planes.
 
McCain definitely still has a chance. The Republican Party 'attack machine' will keep going to the end and will sink to further depths with their attempts to smear Obama.

I was reading yesterday that one polling firm - I've forgotten the name - puts McCain almost level with Obama. The relevance of this is that the poll in question gained notoriety in 2004 accurately predicting the final outcome, something most other polls failed to do.

It definitely won't be an Obama landslide and will be far closer than polls suggest.

Read my previous post about that poll. It's complete horseshit.
 
You can't seriously believe that, surely!?!

Care to explain the ways in which Obama has been given a harder ride than McCain?

Sure.
Was McCain's association with G Gordon Liddy dragged through the press? No
Was McCain's affair and engagement while still married dragged through the press? No
Did the Keating 5 scandal get a lot of press? No
Was McCain's association with heinous pastors who claimed the gays caused hurricane Katrina dragged through the press? No
Was McCain's insane gambling problem dragged through the press? No
Was McCain's dubious preferential treatment in the Hanoi Hilton dragged through the press? No
Were McCain's 83 lobbyists working for his campaign dragged through the press? No
Were McCain's lobbyist connections to the leader of Georgia brought up when he was screaming about Russia? No
Did McCain's pushing of a Vietnam Vet in a wheelchair 7 years ago get a lot of press? No
Were McCain's connections to Rick Renzi dragged through the press? No
Was McCain's possible affair with lobbyist Vicki Iseman brought up in the press? No
Was McCain's rape joke in 1981 dragged through the press? No
Was McCain's heinous joke about teenage Chelsea Clinton being ugly dragged through the press? No
Did McCain get much press for not knowing the difference between Sunnis and Shiites? No
Did the press bring up McCain's blatantly illegal campaign contributions this election cycle? No
Was McCain's wife confronted by the press for her illegal prescription habit and the ensuing manipulation of law enforcement to prevent charges? No

If any of the above was something Barack Obama had done, you can be sure the press would have gone after him, as they did with everything else.
 
The one interesting phenomenon we've seen this time around has been that cable news networks are being much more opinion driven in their coverage of elections. In years past, the likes of CNN and MSNBC had tried to remain neutral on all topics so as to not appear biased in one direction of the other, while in 2000 and 04, FoxNews was quite openly packaging Bush's platform to appeal to their conservative core audience (and likewise selling Gore and Kerry's platforms to traditional conservative fears of higher taxes and weak defense etc). As a result, FoxNews garnered much higher ratings than the other two combined, which has ultimately led CNN and MSNBC to adobt Fox's advocacy oriented approach to Obama, just as Fox has to McCain. This is the problem that you run into when certain people control certain networks. Thus the perception that McCain or Obama have gotten free rides will largely depend on what side of the political spectrum you come from and where you get your news from.
 
This sums it all up nicely.

Vote for Obama McCain lacks the character and temperament to be president. And Palin is simply a disgrace.
By Christopher Hitchens

I used to nod wisely when people said: "Let's discuss issues rather than personalities." It seemed so obvious that in politics an issue was an issue and a personality was a personality, and that the more one could separate the two, the more serious one was. After all, in a debate on serious issues, any mention of the opponent's personality would be ad hominem at best and at worst would stoop as low as ad feminam.

At my old English boarding school, we had a sporting saying that one should "tackle the ball and not the man." I carried on echoing this sort of unexamined nonsense for quite some time—in fact, until the New Hampshire primary of 1992, when it hit me very forcibly that the "personality" of one of the candidates was itself an "issue." In later years, I had little cause to revise my view that Bill Clinton's abysmal character was such as to be a "game changer" in itself, at least as important as his claim to be a "new Democrat." To summarize what little I learned from all this: A candidate may well change his or her position on, say, universal health care or Bosnia. But he or she cannot change the fact—if it happens to be a fact—that he or she is a pathological liar, or a dimwit, or a proud ignoramus. And even in the short run, this must and will tell.

On "the issues" in these closing weeks, there really isn't a very sharp or highly noticeable distinction to be made between the two nominees, and their "debates" have been cramped and boring affairs as a result. But the difference in character and temperament has become plainer by the day, and there is no decent way of avoiding the fact. Last week's so-called town-hall event showed Sen. John McCain to be someone suffering from an increasingly obvious and embarrassing deficit, both cognitive and physical. And the only public events that have so far featured his absurd choice of running mate have shown her to be a deceiving and unscrupulous woman utterly unversed in any of the needful political discourses but easily trained to utter preposterous lies and to appeal to the basest element of her audience. McCain occasionally remembers to stress matters like honor and to disown innuendoes and slanders, but this only makes him look both more senile and more cynical, since it cannot (can it?) be other than his wish and design that he has engaged a deputy who does the innuendoes and slanders for him.

I suppose it could be said, as Michael Gerson has alleged, that the Obama campaign's choice of the word erratic to describe McCain is also an insinuation. But really, it's only a euphemism. Anyone with eyes to see and ears to hear had to feel sorry for the old lion on his last outing and wish that he could be taken somewhere soothing and restful before the night was out. The train-wreck sentences, the whistlings in the pipes, the alarming and bewildered handhold phrases—"My friends"—to get him through the next 10 seconds. I haven't felt such pity for anyone since the late Adm. James Stockdale humiliated himself as Ross Perot's running mate. And I am sorry to have to say it, but Stockdale had also distinguished himself in America's most disastrous and shameful war, and it didn't qualify him then and it doesn't qualify McCain now.

The most insulting thing that a politician can do is to compel you to ask yourself: "What does he take me for?" Precisely this question is provoked by the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin. I wrote not long ago that it was not right to condescend to her just because of her provincial roots or her piety, let alone her slight flirtatiousness, but really her conduct since then has been a national disgrace. It turns out that none of her early claims to political courage was founded in fact, and it further turns out that some of the untested rumors about her—her vindictiveness in local quarrels, her bizarre religious and political affiliations—were very well-founded, indeed. Moreover, given the nasty and lowly task of stirring up the whack-job fringe of the party's right wing and of recycling patent falsehoods about Obama's position on Afghanistan, she has drawn upon the only talent that she apparently possesses.

It therefore seems to me that the Republican Party has invited not just defeat but discredit this year, and that both its nominees for the highest offices in the land should be decisively repudiated, along with any senators, congressmen, and governors who endorse them.

I used to call myself a single-issue voter on the essential question of defending civilization against its terrorist enemies and their totalitarian protectors, and on that "issue" I hope I can continue to expose and oppose any ambiguity. Obama is greatly overrated in my opinion, but the Obama-Biden ticket is not a capitulationist one, even if it does accept the support of the surrender faction, and it does show some signs of being able and willing to profit from experience. With McCain, the "experience" is subject to sharply diminishing returns, as is the rest of him, and with Palin the very word itself is a sick joke. One only wishes that the election could be over now and a proper and dignified verdict rendered, so as to spare democracy and civility the degradation to which they look like being subjected in the remaining days of a low, dishonest campaign.
 
That's a typically splenetic and hyperbolic article from Hitchens. This is a far more measured and better-written version of a similar argument, from Leon Wieseltier of New Republic:
___________________________

I have never voted happily in a general election. In the 1980s I envied my conservative friends who drew the curtain of the voting booth over an epiphany, whereas I groaned beneath my philosophical complexity when I voted for Reagan; and when I voted for Clinton a decade later, it was not without an exertion of casuistry about the distinction between supportable and admirable. I have not yet been asked for my vote by a candidate who represents the entirety of my convictions. I am not dismayed by this. Politics should not provide the most complete or the most profound of life's satisfactions. Voting is not an expression of the soul. Anyway, my convictions do not add up. I like taxes and I like the military. (The only thing Obama said in any of those dreary debates that delighted me was his muffled admission the other night that "I don't mind paying a little more" taxes. Taxation is a strong sign of membership in a polity; and the many calamities of recent years have confirmed to me that the government needs my money, because there are emergencies, within and beyond our borders, with which only it can deal.) I want universal health care and I want an interventionist foreign policy. I believe that the American president should help people in distress, at home and abroad--not all of them, but a lot of them. I like capitalism, but not religiously, and I feel the same way about diplomacy. I do not trust bankers to understand American values and poets to understand American interests. Taken together, these are political inconsistencies, but they are not intellectual inconsistencies. It is not my problem that the political culture of this country has made the liberalism that I inherited, and of which I was honored to become an heir, seem incoherent. Or maybe it is my problem: after all, I have to vote.

For many years I began my mornings mordantly with Eugene McCarthy, as we walked our dogs along the uneventful streets of Kalorama. As we walked, we talked--or rather, I listened, because I did not wish to interrupt the rushing stream of his recollections and reflections. One day in the summer of 1992 our subject was the presidential campaign--"poor George," was how Gene began every remark about Bush--and he was warning me against allowing considerations of policy or philosophy too much to influence my view of the candidates. "You vote for the man," he drawled though his jowls. "What matters is the man." In his wicked accounts of his adventures in Washington, Gene was a master portraitist; he insisted that temperament is one of the causes of history. (He was an illustration of his rule.) When it comes to the president, he maintained, character is fate: his character, our fate. I have been thinking about Gene's advice in the last days--it is almost over!--of this campaign, but it does not quite settle the matter. Obama is too cool, but McCain is too hot. For all his articulateness, I still do not know what most moves Obama--what are the two or three grand proposals that he would put before the Congress and the country in the early months of his administration, which is all the respite from the madness of politics that any administration will ever get; and I cannot shirk the feeling, as I watch him rise, that I am witnessing not so much the triumph of a cause as the success of a plan. I must say that the Ayers affair rankles me, because I would not shake the man's dirty hand; and the fact that Obama was eight years old at the time of the Weather Underground is no more pertinent to his moral and historical awareness than the fact that he was six years old at the time of the King assassination. Obama's passionlessness spooks me. His friends tell me that my impression is wrong, but I long ago gave up on personal assurances about politicians. As far as I am concerned, politicians are what they want us to think they are. (And the lyricism of some of Obama's friends is embarrassing.)

As for McCain: I admire his talent for allegiances, personal and historical; and also his talent for enmity, because we have enemies. He was splendidly right about the surge, which is not a small thing; and the grudging way Obama treats the reversal in Iraq, when he treats it at all, is disgraceful. Tyrants and génocidaires would sleep less soundly during a McCain presidency. And yet it is impossible any longer to ignore the contradiction between the nobility of his past and the ignobility of his present. He is abstracted, dispersed, out of focus, Stockdalesque, mentally undone. Often he sounds simply unintelligent. I would be more affected by his championing of soldiers and veterans if it were not also the championing of people like himself: solipsism is a common effect of solidarity, and McCain's sense of reality seems to be narrowing. The financial crisis harshly exposed these limitations: it made McCain more dogmatic and more doctrinaire, with his wild refrain about tax cuts and his unmaverick-like refusal to examine his party's cult of corporations. His economics refuted his compassion. McCain feels with his heart, but he thinks with his base. And when he picked Sarah Palin, he told the United States of America to go feck itself. I used to think of my dilemma this way: Obama's conception of America is better than he is, McCain's conception of America is worse than he is. But McCain is looking more and more like his America, which is Bush's America: a country of capitalists and Christians. I do not know how to explain what has become of him. But the more I regard him, the more I recall Gene's ominous words. You vote for the man.

Obama is a smart man. He is a decent man. He is an undangerous man, in the manner of all pragmatists and opportunists. He reveres reason, though he often confuses it with conversation. His domestic goals are good, though the titans of American finance, the greedy geniuses of Wall Street, may have made many of those goals fantastic. He will see to it that some liberalism survives at the Supreme Court. This leaves only the rest of the world. What a time for a novice! I dread the prospect of Obama's West Wing education in foreign policy: even when he spoke well about these matters in the debates, it all sounded so new to him, so light. He must not mistake the global adulation of his person with the end of anti-Americanism. And he must not mistake his hope for the world with his analysis of the world. But OK, then: Obama, and another anxious visit to the ballot box, with--in the stinging words of Du Bois--"a hope not hopeless but unhopeful."

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=48009e42-978b-4535-8f03-a6bcad5ca10d


:lol: :lol:
 
First time I opened this thread and that video is class :lol:

At 1:40! - WTF!??

He just nearly stole my redcafe vote with that.
 
McCain definitely still has a chance. The Republican Party 'attack machine' will keep going to the end and will sink to further depths with their attempts to smear Obama.

I was reading yesterday that one polling firm - I've forgotten the name - puts McCain almost level with Obama. The relevance of this is that the poll in question gained notoriety in 2004 accurately predicting the final outcome, something most other polls failed to do.

It definitely won't be an Obama landslide and will be far closer than polls suggest.

Two polls did that, the AP and the IBD/TIPP. The sample for the AP poll was 40% evangelicals. Clearly an outlier, run by a group that's consistently leant 2-3 points right, and in this case with an obvious sampling bias.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl110

Nate Silver deals with the IBD/TIPP one here:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html

There were equally obvious outliers last week, with Pew putting Obama 14 points clear nationally, and Big Ten putting him 10 clear in Indiana!

538.com was highly sceptical about all the above polls. But the chances of an Obama landslide according to their model has now slipped below 50%, which it was only higher than for about a day.

Personally I think it will tighten a fair bit over the next ten days. The democrats have been coasting for the last month, just trying not to feck up, which is the right strategy and has led to increasingly desperate attempts to turn nothing statements against them. But I don't think they will be able to hold this lead, because ultimately negative campaigning works, it's been proved time and time again, and without the dems offering much of substance in reply, it will eventually start getting through.

Doubt it will be enough though. Even if McCain wins Florida and Ohio, he might well still lose. He really needs Pennsylvania, and though he's probably cut into Obama's lead there, it's still a big lead.
 
Some people are truly desperate.

http://kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html

Campaign Volunteer Faces Charges In Attack Hoax
Ashley Todd told investigators today she "just wanted to tell the truth" -- and was neither robbed, nor attacked
Todd, 20, is now facing charges for filing a false report to police
MORE: KDKA Online Voters Guide | Campaign '08 News
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) ― A campaign worker who claimed she was the victim of a politically-motivated attack in which she was beaten, kicked and cut, now admits that she made the whole story up.

According to Pittsburgh police spokeswoman Diane Richard, Ashley Todd, 20, told investigators today that she "was not robbed and there was no 6'4" black male attacker."

Todd initially told police that she was robbed at an ATM in Bloomfield Wednesday night and that the suspect began beating her after seeing a John McCain bumper sticker on her car.

Todd claimed that the mugger even cut a backwards letter "B" in her cheek.

But today investigators say Todd confessed that the attack never happened.

At a news conference this afternoon, officials said they believe that Todd's injuries were self-inflicted.

Police investigating the report said Todd's story began to unravel early on and they administered a polygraph test.

Investigators asked Todd to return to the police station today for more questioning and to help them release a composite sketch of the suspect.

When she did, police say she admitted that she made the whole thing up and that it snowballed out of control.

Todd told investigators today that she "just wanted to tell the truth" – adding that she was neither robbed, nor attacked.

"She indicated that she has prior mental problems and that she does not remember how the backward letter B got on her face," Richard told reporters today.

Todd told police that while she did not remember how the backward "B" got on her face, she may have done it herself since she was the only one in the car.

According to police, Todd said she thought of Barack Obama when she saw the "B" in her rearview mirror.

Meanwhile, police and residents of Bloomfield say they had suspicions from the beginning about the validity of Todd's tale.

"Something seemed a little strange about the story to begin with," said Lisa Diulus.

"I think it's a shame," said Theresa Cherico. "She made Bloomfield out to be like an unsafe neighborhood."

"I don't know, McCain is down in the polls, maybe this is a boost to get him up a little bit," said Mark Billings. "I don't know, maybe she had some personal problems or something."

Police say there's no indication that anyone else was involved in bogus robbery and assault incident involving Todd.

Todd is now facing charge for filing a false police report.

She is spending the weekend behind bars awaiting a psychiatric evaluation on Monday
 
Personally I think it will tighten a fair bit over the next ten days. The democrats have been coasting for the last month, just trying not to feck up, which is the right strategy and has led to increasingly desperate attempts to turn nothing statements against them. But I don't think they will be able to hold this lead, because ultimately negative campaigning works, it's been proved time and time again, and without the dems offering much of substance in reply, it will eventually start getting through.


I don't agree...


Whilst the negative campaigning has proven to prevail in the past, the mid-term elections in the USA, of '06 have proven that the American voters are determined to shift the current climate of politics. With two wars in the middle-east - and tensions in the region not getting much better... coupled with the free-fall of the economy, people have little choice but to try something new.



Barack Obama prevailed against Hillary Clinton. I have not seen an uglier campaign in my 43 years, and that was within the Democrat party primary.



This ugly devisiveness as a thing of the past. Most seem to be coming around to the idea that we need leadership that represents the collective desire to do better. The Republicans are clinging to the idea that personal greed is what will ultimately affect the voter on election day. That might have worked when we didn't have so many troubles throughout the world and within each and every community.


Besides... Obama is so fecking sqeeky clean, not even Joe Biden can feck it up for him, now.
 
Obama is done and dusted. Everything the republicans do seems cynical, choreographed or simply points out how old McCain is or how insane Palin is.
 
I've been hearing talk that the voting machines are rigged - is there any truth to this?
 
The Republican philosophy of "we'll look after you in the womb but after that you're on your own" doesn't really resonate with most Americans at a time with two intractable foreign wars and a major recession looming at home.
 
I've been hearing talk that the voting machines are rigged - is there any truth to this?

Who is supposed to have "rigged" them? After sale to the governmental agencies, the company that manufactures them has no control over them. As far as the government, in my case the County of Fresno, the machines are set by the Department of Elections--which is neither GOP nor Democratic and attempts to "rig" would be reported to the local media rapidly.Besides, the
machines leave a complete paper trail (the actual ballots) so any fraud would be easy to expose. The major accusations of electoral fraud in recent history took place in large cities that were lead by mayors/city councils with majority Democratic party rule. Yet the allegations were that the machines were rigged to undercount Democratic votes. Rather odd that the only people in position to corrupt the machines would screw their own party.

The primary problem with US elections is that far too many voters don't study the issues, aren't prepared to vote, and can't read a ballot my daughter could handle in 4th grade. I've worked about 12 elections in a row, and have to remind voters that there are races/issues to vote on on both sides of the ballot--many forget. Others can't fill out the ballots so that the machine can read them (so they need to be hand counted later), and other voters can't figure out what the various elected positions and initiatives. Frankly, any time you hear of "rigged" ballots, you are actually hearing about moronic people unprepared to exercise the franchise, read instructions, report to the correct polling station, or take the effort to discharge their civic duty.
 
Who is supposed to have "rigged" them? After sale to the governmental agencies, the company that manufactures them has no control over them. As far as the government, in my case the County of Fresno, the machines are set by the Department of Elections--which is neither GOP nor Democratic and attempts to "rig" would be reported to the local media rapidly.Besides, the
machines leave a complete paper trail (the actual ballots) so any fraud would be easy to expose. The major accusations of electoral fraud in recent history took place in large cities that were lead by mayors/city councils with majority Democratic party rule. Yet the allegations were that the machines were rigged to undercount Democratic votes. Rather odd that the only people in position to corrupt the machines would screw their own party.

The primary problem with US elections is that far too many voters don't study the issues, aren't prepared to vote, and can't read a ballot my daughter could handle in 4th grade. I've worked about 12 elections in a row, and have to remind voters that there are races/issues to vote on on both sides of the ballot--many forget. Others can't fill out the ballots so that the machine can read them (so they need to be hand counted later), and other voters can't figure out what the various elected positions and initiatives. Frankly, any time you hear of "rigged" ballots, you are actually hearing about moronic people unprepared to exercise the franchise, read instructions, report to the correct polling station, or take the effort to discharge their civic duty.

so you will dispute the fact Blackwell stole the Ohio vote in 2004?
please be serious.
 
They're attempting to swiftboat Obama.

Jerome Corsi has published a book of malicious lies, including some about Obama's ties to the current Prime Minister of Kenya and they're basically blaming the latter for being a socialist, an associate of terrorists, and a genocidal leader. Corsi was kicked out of Kenya, but apparently these rumours have been spread by Christian Missionaries and all the feckwit right wing liars for Jesus are circulating it. They're even saying Odinga is a Muslim even though he's Anglican!
 
They're attempting to swiftboat Obama.

Jerome Corsi has published a book of malicious lies, including some about Obama's ties to the current Prime Minister of Kenya and they're basically blaming the latter for being a socialist, an associate of terrorists, and a genocidal leader. Corsi was kicked out of Kenya, but apparently these rumours have been spread by Christian Missionaries and all the feckwit right wing liars for Jesus are circulating it. They're even saying Odinga is a Muslim even though he's Anglican!

those smears only work with the Evangelical right of the GOP..they would never vote for Obama anyway....

so it has no effect on the independent voters
 
Desperately Seeking Seriousness

By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: October 26, 2008

Maybe the polls and the conventional wisdom are all wrong, and John McCain will pull off a stunning upset. But right now the election looks like a blue sweep: a solid victory, maybe even a landslide, for Barack Obama; large Democratic gains in the Senate, possibly even enough to produce a filibuster-proof majority; and big Democratic gains in the House, too.

Yet just six weeks ago the presidential race seemed close, with Mr. McCain if anything a bit ahead. The turning point was the middle of September, coinciding precisely with the sudden intensification of the financial crisis after the failure of Lehman Brothers. But why has the growing financial and economic crisis worked so overwhelmingly to the Democrats’ advantage?

As someone who’s spent a lot of time arguing against conservative economic dogma, I’d like to believe that the bad news convinced many Americans, once and for all, that the right’s economic ideas are wrong and progressive ideas are right. And there’s certainly something to that. These days, with even Alan Greenspan admitting that he was wrong to believe that the financial industry could regulate itself, Reaganesque rhetoric about the magic of the marketplace and the evils of government intervention sounds ridiculous.

In addition, Mr. McCain seems spectacularly unable to talk about economics as if it matters. He has attempted to pin the blame for the crisis on his pet grievance, Congressional budget earmarks — which leaves economists scratching their heads in puzzlement. In the immediate aftermath of the Lehman failure, he declared that “the fundamentals of our economy are strong,” seemingly unaware that he was closely echoing what Herbert Hoover said after the 1929 crash.

But I suspect that the main reason for the dramatic swing in the polls is something less concrete and more meta than the fact that events have discredited free-market fundamentalism. As the economic scene has darkened, I’d argue, Americans have rediscovered the virtue of seriousness. And this has worked to Mr. Obama’s advantage, because his opponent has run a deeply unserious campaign.

Think about the themes of the McCain campaign so far. Mr. McCain reminds us, again and again, that he’s a maverick — but what does that mean? His maverickness seems to be defined as a free-floating personality trait, rather than being tied to any specific objections on his part to the way the country has been run for the last eight years.

Conversely, he has attacked Mr. Obama as a “celebrity,” but without any specific explanation of what’s wrong with that — it’s just a given that we’re supposed to hate Hollywood types.

And the selection of Sarah Palin as the Republican vice-presidential candidate clearly had nothing to do with what she knew or the positions she’d taken — it was about who she was, or seemed to be. Americans were supposed to identify with a hockey mom who was just like them.

In a way, you can’t blame Mr. McCain for campaigning on trivia — after all, it’s worked in the past. Most notably, President Bush got within hanging-chads-and-butterfly-ballot range of the White House only because much of the news media, rather than focusing on the candidates’ policy proposals, focused on their personas: Mr. Bush was an amiable guy you’d like to have a beer with, Al Gore was a stiff know-it-all, and never mind all that hard stuff about taxes and Social Security. And let’s face it: six weeks ago Mr. McCain’s focus on trivia seemed to be paying off handsomely.

But that was before the prospect of a second Great Depression concentrated the public’s mind.

The Obama campaign has hardly been fluff-free — in its early stages it was full of vague uplift. But the Barack Obama voters see now is cool, calm, intellectual and knowledgeable, able to talk coherently about the financial crisis in a way Mr. McCain can’t. And when the world seems to be falling apart, you don’t turn to a guy you’d like to have a beer with, you turn to someone who might actually know how to fix the situation.

The McCain campaign’s response to its falling chances of victory has been telling: rather than trying to make the case that Mr. McCain really is better qualified to deal with the economic crisis, the campaign has been doing all it can to trivialize things again. Mr. Obama consorts with ’60s radicals! He’s a socialist! He doesn’t love America! Judging from the polls, it doesn’t seem to be working.

Will the nation’s new demand for seriousness last? Maybe not — remember how 9/11 was supposed to end the focus on trivialities? For now, however, voters seem to be focused on real issues. And that’s bad for Mr. McCain and conservatives in general: right now, to paraphrase Rob Corddry, reality has a clear liberal bias.
 
Right then let's see how McCain is going to win this thing.

The states he's defending which went red in 2004 and which the polls show are up for grabs are:

Iowa (7)
Colorado (9)
Missouri (11)
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (15)
Indiana (11)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Montana (3)


Iowa looks like a dead cert to go blue so based on the 2004 result that would take it to 279 (Rep) - 259 (Dem).

The next most likely to go blue seems to be New Mexico though oddly the last poll that I've seen from that state was taken two weeks ago. Does anyone have a reason for that? Anyway that would take it to 274 (Rep) - 264 (Dem).

So Obama would only need one more state (other than Montana) to take the election providing that McCain doesn't pick up a blue state (which looks very unlikely).

Colorado and Ohio are the next most likely according to the polls and the small swing needed from 2004. I think McCain has a much better chance of holding Ohio so Colorado becomes absolutely crucial. I see Obama was holding a massive rally in Denver today which tells its own story.

There just seem too many to defend, if you keep them out in one place they'll hit you somewhere else.

Oh well. :(
 
Right then let's see how McCain is going to win this thing.

The states he's defending which went red in 2004 and which the polls show are up for grabs are:

Iowa (7)
Colorado (9)
Missouri (11)
Ohio (20)
Florida (27)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (15)
Indiana (11)
Nevada (5)
New Mexico (5)
Montana (3)


Iowa looks like a dead cert to go blue so based on the 2004 result that would take it to 279 (Rep) - 259 (Dem).

The next most likely to go blue seems to be New Mexico though oddly the last poll that I've seen from that state was taken two weeks ago. Does anyone have a reason for that? Anyway that would take it to 274 (Rep) - 264 (Dem).

So Obama would only need one more state (other than Montana) to take the election providing that McCain doesn't pick up a blue state (which looks very unlikely).

Colorado and Ohio are the next most likely according to the polls and the small swing needed from 2004. I think McCain has a much better chance of holding Ohio so Colorado becomes absolutely crucial. I see Obama was holding a massive rally in Denver today which tells its own story.

There just seem too many to defend, if you keep them out in one place they'll hit you somewhere else.

Oh well. :(

Obama is up by 15 in Iowa so i don't think that can be regarded as a swing state. Montana will be an interesting case given that McCain is generally polling ahead by 5, but the numbers tighten up quickly when you add Ralph Nader to the ballot (MT is one of the states where Nader made it on).
 
Then what's the point of all this? :mad: How do they know whether it will happen again or not...are they even checking?

Some states are checking at the local level and have gotten rid of the machines. Others states, have decided the best thing to do is keep the machines and not allow the machines to provide voters with a receipt, confirming their vote. Basically, they are totally open for stealing.
 
Obama is up by 15 in Iowa so i don't think that can be regarded as a swing state. Montana will be an interesting case given that McCain is generally polling ahead by 5, but the numbers tighten up quickly when you add Ralph Nader to the ballot (MT is one of the states where Nader made it on).

And he's up by 8 in Virginia

You can take that out of the toss up column too.
 
Who is supposed to have "rigged" them? After sale to the governmental agencies, the company that manufactures them has no control over them. As far as the government, in my case the County of Fresno, the machines are set by the Department of Elections--which is neither GOP nor Democratic and attempts to "rig" would be reported to the local media rapidly.Besides, the
machines leave a complete paper trail (the actual ballots) so any fraud would be easy to expose. The major accusations of electoral fraud in recent history took place in large cities that were lead by mayors/city councils with majority Democratic party rule. Yet the allegations were that the machines were rigged to undercount Democratic votes. Rather odd that the only people in position to corrupt the machines would screw their own party.

Perhaps 'rigged' is the wrong word, but there have been legit concerns about these machines for a long time - poor security safeguards, lack of independent verification of the algorithms, lack of voting receipts for auditing purposes, poor system design... the list goes on.
 
Indeed though personally I'd be devastated if Indiana went blue. You can take the rest but you're not having that state!

new zogby poll has McCain up by 6
in Indiana...so you may sleep easy :)

but Obama had an amazing rally there recently....in the end it is GOTV....one thing is for sure Indiana wont be one of the first states that just goes red on election night.


at work we all did pool predicting the number of electoral votes for whichever candidate...and I predicted Obama would win 364...and I did not include Indiana.... :)
 
new zogby poll has McCain up by 6
in Indiana...so you may sleep easy :)

but Obama had an amazing rally there recently....in the end it is GOTV....one thing is for sure Indiana wont be one of the first states that just goes red on election night.


at work we all did pool predicting the number of electoral votes for whichever candidate...and I predicted Obama would win 364...and I did not include Indiana.... :)

He won't take Indiana, but he doesn't need it. Honestly, with the numbers in VA and PA staying this steady, and even the McCain campaign admitting the NM and CO are lost, I can't see any way back for McCain. Ohio is still within the realms of possibility, but Ohio probably wouldn't be enough...though if he moved enough nationally to turn OH round, Florida would be easily in the bag. But I think his goose is cooked, barring a major national security incident.

Cue major national security incident...