U.S. Presidential Race: Official Thread

Obama or McCain/Democrat or Republican..you decide

  • McCain

    Votes: 14 7.5%

  • Obama

    Votes: 173 92.5%
  • Total voters
    187
  • Poll closed .
spinoza said:
Any chance of the Bradley effect skewing the polls materially?

Intuitively I feel that McCain still has a chance because of this, though I know of no evidence or proof.
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I think Obama is sufficiently ahead and the state of the economy is bad enough to overcome any residual racism. Let's see.
 
spinoza said:
Any chance of the Bradley effect skewing the polls materially?

Intuitively I feel that McCain still has a chance because of this, though I know of no evidence or proof.
Click to expand...

Probably not. Mostly because the Bradley Effect is a myth.

There was no indication of it in the primaries - where it should have had a greater effect than in the general because of the similar positions of the candidates.
 
According to that site you linked to Raoul Obama melrely nees to win the states that are already massively leaning towards him plus one of Ohio or Virginia and he wins.

He can afford to lose the 2 states leaning towards McCain, the 7 states that are tied at the moment and 3 of the 4 states that are leaning towards him.

A very comfortable place to be I'd say.
 
Frosty said:
As was pointed out earlier, www.fivethirtyeight.com should also be bookmarked.

It predicts an Obama landslide.
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I've become totally addicted to that site. Although Nate Silver's pro-Democrat, his statistical methodology seems excellent to me, and he's been very careful and qualified about some of the recent polls showing Obama swinging up again.

It might be putting it a bit strongly to say the model 'predicts a landslide'...but yes it's nudged the chances of a landslide just above 50% for the first time so far. Most simulation runs are putting it at about 375.

Meanwhile, John McCain has embarked on "The Joe the Plumber Tour"...desperate
 
Just watched parts of McCain's latest campaign speech. He's absolutely clutching at straws at this late stage. No ideas, just fear mongering attacks on Obama. You get the impression he's eager to finish this campaign and take a rest.
 
Raoul said:
Just watched parts of McCain's latest campaign speech. He's absolutely clutching at straws at this late stage. No ideas, just fear mongering attacks on Obama. You get the impression he's eager to finish this campaign and take a rest.
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Saw it as well, sad to see an independent character such as his become so warped by the percieved demands of the Presidential campaign.
 
AlwaysRedwood said:
Me too. How come the ones with their taxes going up are the ones who are okay with it?
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I'm not ok with it. It pisses me off. The government will now take more from and and be equally as ineffective as they have been my whole life. Just fecking great.







PS - When Obama wins though my career will be a bit safer and perhaps more prosperous so I'll probably get a bigger bonus. :nervous:





:lol:
 
The Republican Party

Now that it is almost inevitable that Republicans will lose:

  • What direction will they head in now?
  • Will there be a self destruction a la the Democrats in 1968?
  • Can the coalition that brought Nixon, Regan and the Bushes to the Presidency hold out?

It would be fascinating to hear people's thoughts- how big would a loss in this election damage the Republican Party? Likewise are we seeing the beginnig of a new Democratic coalition?

Sorry for all the questions just thought I'd take the thread in a slightly new direction.
 
The Republican Party will stay a major force in U.S. politics and will probably rebound in the next 2-4 years. They are going to have to revise their platform to keep up with the changing times. The old cold war three pillars of conservatism concept needs to be reexamined. They're definitely going to have to move to the center on social issues, shed the residue of Bush's cowboy diplomacy, and figure out whether they can come up with economic ideas beyond their usual tax cuts for all policy. Most of all, they need some fresh blood - and Sarah Palin isn't it.
 
Raoul said:
The Republican Party will stay a major force in U.S. politics and will probably rebound in the next 2-4 years. They are going to have to revise their platform to keep up with the changing times. The old cold war three pillars of conservatism concept needs to be reexamined. They're definitely going to have to move to the center on social issues, shed the residue of Bush's cowboy diplomacy, and figure out whether they can come up with economic ideas beyond their usual tax cuts for all policy. Most of all, they need some fresh blood - and Sarah Palin isn't it.
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I think it's going to take longer than you anticipate because of Sarah Palin. Evangilicals expect her to be the nominee in 2012. All other Republicans do not. This is a pretty deep schism they are looking at and it will carry through that election.

And Obama is looking at the exact same economic situation as Reagan. Most people don't remember that Reagan was very unpopular for the first three years of his first term - until the economy turned around. Obama will have the same situation. A deep three year recession, we come out of it and he looks like the hero.
 
Raoul said:
Rather than believing one poll that Karl Rove has cherry picked to skew the perception that Obama is about to trounce McCain in a landslide - bookmark this page - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html - its got all the polls and its updated daily. You'll get a better idea of what McCain's chances are on election day.
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Thanks for that site, makes for interesting reading.

To be fair I did say a couple of weeks ago that I only gave McCain a 20% chance. If there's no substantial shift in the polls by Monday then it's as good as over.

Could be a short election night if Virginia goes blue which would be a shame as the drama of the 2000 election night was a whole lot of fun.
 
Raoul said:
The Republican Party will stay a major force in U.S. politics and will probably rebound in the next 2-4 years. They are going to have to revise their platform to keep up with the changing times. The old cold war three pillars of conservatism concept needs to be reexamined. They're definitely going to have to move to the center on social issues, shed the residue of Bush's cowboy diplomacy, and figure out whether they can come up with economic ideas beyond their usual tax cuts for all policy. Most of all, they need some fresh blood - and Sarah Palin isn't it.
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From the outside looking in, it doesnt seem it will be capable of moving to the centre on social issues. It seems like even to be moderately right wing is hard work. Ultimately, it seems like most Republicans want to create a kind of Christian Saudi Arabia.

The Republicans have been helped in recent years by the ineptitude of the Democrats. If the Dems can hold things together I would expect to see the Repubs on the sidelines for a while. But that is a big "if", as the Dems seem to have a broader spectrum of different views and interests in the tent, and so find it hard to hold it all together.
 
AlwaysRedwood said:
I think it's going to take longer than you anticipate because of Sarah Palin. Evangilicals expect her to be the nominee in 2012. All other Republicans do not. This is a pretty deep schism they are looking at and it will carry through that election.

And Obama is looking at the exact same economic situation as Reagan. Most people don't remember that Reagan was very unpopular for the first three years of his first term - until the economy turned around. Obama will have the same situation. A deep three year recession, we come out of it and he looks like the hero.
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I thought Palin was just a badly thought-out tactic for this election, I didn't think she actually had any major role in the future of the Republican party. If she actually has any chance of being the nominee in 2012, then that's just scary.
 
Ummm HEY GAZZA - You think that's crazy, check this shit out.

BREAKING NEWS:


amd_victim.jpg


John McCain volunteer Ashley Todd made up ATM attack story
PITTSBURGH - Pittsburgh police say a McCain campaign volunteer made up a story of being robbed, pinned to the ground and having the letter "B'' scratched on her face in a politically inspired attack.

Maurita Bryant, the assistant chief of the police department's investigations division, says Ashley Todd is being charged with making a false report to police.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...police_john_mccain_volunteer_ashley_todd.html

*Also, reported on MSNBC
---------------------------------------------


If this doesn't go to show how desperate the McCain supporters are, I don't know...:smirk:

This idiot girl must have blackened her own eye, then scratched the 'B' on her face, in the mirror.

:wenger:

-------------------------------------

In addition to:

McCain at a rally, today went on and on about Barack wanting to take the voter's share of the pie and give it to someone else...

This prompted Barack (and mind you, if you've never been to a cook-out ~ you don't get between a black man and his piece of pie) to retort with an even better pie analogy. Barack describes the pie as deminishing and the few scraps going to the corporate executives.


This is like a 350 lb professional fighter counter-punching an elderly retired professional wrestler, that only knew how to throw fake punches.
 
WeWonItTwoTimes said:
:lol: Looks like she used lipstick to put that ''B'' on her face.
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No... she did scratch it in there... n' you know she'll attain celebrity status and then wind up married to someone such as Rodney King.


BREAKING NEWS:


* MSNBC explains that she did blacken her own eye...

The Endorsment Count for the Past Week:

Obama
1. Former Sec of State & Joints Cheif of Staff Colin Powell

McCain
1. Joe the(Tax Dodger) Plumber
2. Ashley the Mental Patient
 
ooeat0meoo said:
Ummm HEY GAZZA - You think that's crazy, check this shit out.

BREAKING NEWS:


amd_victim.jpg


John McCain volunteer Ashley Todd made up ATM attack story
PITTSBURGH - Pittsburgh police say a McCain campaign volunteer made up a story of being robbed, pinned to the ground and having the letter "B'' scratched on her face in a politically inspired attack.

Maurita Bryant, the assistant chief of the police department's investigations division, says Ashley Todd is being charged with making a false report to police.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...police_john_mccain_volunteer_ashley_todd.html

*Also, reported on MSNBC
---------------------------------------------


If this doesn't go to show how desperate the McCain supporters are, I don't know...:smirk:

This idiot girl must have blackened her own eye, then scratched the 'B' on her face, in the mirror.

:wenger:

-------------------------------------

In addition to:

McCain at a rally, today went on and on about Barack wanting to take the voter's share of the pie and give it to someone else...

This prompted Barack (and mind you, if you've never been to a cook-out ~ you don't get between a black man and his piece of pie) to retort with an even better pie analogy. Barack describes the pie as deminishing and the few scraps going to the corporate executives.


This is like a 350 lb professional fighter counter-punching an elderly retired professional wrestler, that only knew how to throw fake punches.
Click to expand...

Apparently this was the top story on Hannity and Fix news.....:lol: idiots...
 
Cali Red said:
So I should just say please take more money from and do feck all with it because we're in an economic mess? Bullshit.
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No. You should keep on the train that led to an economic disaster. Good thinking. Smart. Totally defensible.
 
WeWonItTwoTimes said:
He was interviewing Sarah, so no.
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heard that from Ed Schultz...I think Hannity has a radio show....that must be where the racist must have been pushing it.

here is the proof...stop defending your Fox News morons.

The entire mess is a tragic development, and I hope this young woman gets the mental health treatment she needs.

But a double standard is obvious based on the amount of coverage this incident received prior to any suggestion that it might be a hoax. The story was pushed hard by the Drudge Report, and most conservative talking heads ran with it. Sean Hannity devoted most of his Thursday afternoon talk radio broadcast to the topic, broadcasting live from Pittsburgh.Local news stations around the country featured the story on last night's evening and late night newscasts.

Compare this with how little attention has been paid to a recent wave of politically-motivated, violent acts perpetrated by McCain-Palin supporters, several of which occurred in North Carolina and were covered on HuffPo earlier this week.
 
Red Dreams said:
heard that from Ed Schultz...I think Hannity has a radio show....that must be where the racist must have been pushing it.

here is the proof...stop defending your Fox News morons.

The entire mess is a tragic development, and I hope this young woman gets the mental health treatment she needs.

But a double standard is obvious based on the amount of coverage this incident received prior to any suggestion that it might be a hoax. The story was pushed hard by the Drudge Report, and most conservative talking heads ran with it. Sean Hannity devoted most of his Thursday afternoon talk radio broadcast to the topic, broadcasting live from Pittsburgh.Local news stations around the country featured the story on last night's evening and late night newscasts.

Compare this with how little attention has been paid to a recent wave of politically-motivated, violent acts perpetrated by McCain-Palin supporters, several of which occurred in North Carolina and were covered on HuffPo earlier this week.
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Oh sure, the media coverage has clearly been unfair towards the Obama campaign during this race. :rolleyes:

There has been a lot of BS spouted in this thread (myself included) but that really does take the biscuit.
 
spinoza said:
Any chance of the Bradley effect skewing the polls materially?

Intuitively I feel that McCain still has a chance because of this, though I know of no evidence or proof.
Click to expand...

McCain definitely still has a chance. The Republican Party 'attack machine' will keep going to the end and will sink to further depths with their attempts to smear Obama.

I was reading yesterday that one polling firm - I've forgotten the name - puts McCain almost level with Obama. The relevance of this is that the poll in question gained notoriety in 2004 accurately predicting the final outcome, something most other polls failed to do.

It definitely won't be an Obama landslide and will be far closer than polls suggest.
 
WeWonItTwoTimes said:
Oh sure, the media coverage has clearly been unfair towards the Obama campaign during this race. :rolleyes:

There has been a lot of BS spouted in this thread (myself included) but that really does take the biscuit.
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...errr that was part of the blog post...not mine.....but frankly...McCain has been given a much easier ride on so much imo....Obama's bar has been much higher....
 
sounds like the McCain camp may well have put this girl up to make up this story and then called reporters on it.....Pennsylvania is the only way for McCain to win....race baiting of the worst kind...and completely consistent with the Republican party.
 
Red Dreams said:
sounds like the McCain camp may well have put this girl up to make up this story and then called reporters on it....
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She told police she has a history of mental health problems, no need to see conspiracies here. And if it had been planned, it's reasonable to assume that they wouldn't have carved the "B" backwards.
 
WeWonItTwoTimes said:
You can't seriously believe that, surely!?!

Care to explain the ways in which Obama has been given a harder ride than McCain?
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You can't be serious...

Obama has endured, not one, but two 'Kitchen Sink' onslaughts. Granted, the first from Hillary's people was much more underhanded.


How many times has it been said that someone is launching a 'Kitchen Sink' attack on McCain? They (McCain and Palin) bring it all on themselves.
 
WeWonItTwoTimes said:
You can't seriously believe that, surely!?!

Care to explain the ways in which Obama has been given a harder ride than McCain?
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could Obama have got away with the Shia sunni mix up?

now this BS about Ayers...what about the Real relationship McCain has with Liddy?

could Obama have got away with that ridiculous mix up of a speech above that everyone is laughing about....Obama would be toast.
 
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