To add to what ole said, amateur gamblers view bookies as gamblers like themselves, just particularly clever. In reality they are not gamblers at all, their aim is to make a book that will result in profit whatever the outcome. They look for the most profitable markets, where they can take the biggest mark-up, but that's not gambling as such.
Thiago Alcantara | Signed for Bayern Munich
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Transfer markets by bookie's are 'joke markets' designed to generate interest and new accounts. They are not worth millions (or even hundreds) to bookie's and the employees making these markets are not 'keeping agents and people with inside knowledge sweet'. The only time you should pay any attention to them is after all the bookies have taken one down and don't put them back up. That would indicate that a transfer has been finalised. Otherwise ignore them
Not to be nitpicky 711, as you obviously have a better grasp than the majority. But bookies don't create books to make each selection result in profit. That's impossible. Take an Southampton vs Arsenal game at St.Mary's as an example. Arsenal would be around Evens or so, and 95% of bettors would back them. They would be in every accumulator etc. The bookie can't force people to back the draw or southampton, and they can't cut Arsenal's odds and lenghten Southampton's by much as that would result in the wrong odds and the smart gamblers would be all over it. Arsenal might be a loser for over half a million for a bookie in this example on a typical Saturday. So why do they allow this? They've calculated that Arsenal's true price is 11/10. So for every bet they take at Evens, they are making a decent 'margin' or 'mark-up' on those bets. So while Arsenal may win that day and the company loses half a million, over the course of a season, if they keep taking bets at Evens that's true price is 11/10, then the results will even out and they will make a massive profit from that margin.
Anyway, apologies for derailing the thread! Terrific young player and we really should make a strong play for him
I don't disagree, but are you not describing fixed odds there, where the bookmaker has to take a view? and even then that view would be heavily slewed by previous betting in similar circumstances. The discussion was originally about transfer betting though, where the odds are changed regularly according to amounts laid.
Absolute fecking nonsense. Millions upon millions is bet on where the top players will end up by the start of the next season every year.
You really think that transfers are such massive news in every back page from may to September and people don't put a few quid on it.
It's what keeps the football gamblers going in the off season.
Thiago all set for Manchester United move due to carelessness of Barcelona
http://sportwitness.ning.com/forum/...-all-set-for-manchester-united-move-due-to-ca
http://sportwitness.ning.com/forum/...-all-set-for-manchester-united-move-due-to-ca
Could someone quote the article? Filter at work won't let me access the page.
FC Barca (or indeed any other informed parties)
Is Sport considered one of the more reliable Catalan sports papers?
This is De Gea all over again.
Knowing us, he'll issue a come and get me plea, contact us directly and we'll drag it on until eternity at which point his release clause will be scrapped and we'll never sign him.
Sport is reliable in the sense they print stuff that Barcelona don't mind seeing printed.
The thing no one seems to know is what Thiago is thinking. His dad is talking like he's doing a sales pitch for him, presumably with Thiago's blessing. But that could be just an attempt to get a reaction from Barca. The fact the, "not developing as expected," phrase has been uttered by unknown sources "close to the club" suggests he's got his answer, and unless Thiago himself is very determined to prove something by staying I think he'll decide it's time to leave.
To us? No idea. I don't know why we would be listed as frontrunners, except that he is the kind of player we need and we can probably convince him that he'll get the playing time he needs. Welcome to sunny Manchester on Sea.
The thing no one seems to know is what Thiago is thinking. His dad is talking like he's doing a sales pitch for him, presumably with Thiago's blessing. But that could be just an attempt to get a reaction from Barca. The fact the, "not developing as expected," phrase has been uttered by unknown sources "close to the club" suggests he's got his answer, and unless Thiago himself is very determined to prove something by staying I think he'll decide it's time to leave.
To us? No idea. I don't know why we would be listed as frontrunners, except that he is the kind of player we need and we can probably convince him that he'll get the playing time he needs. Welcome to sunny Manchester on Sea.
It's hilarious how much pessimistic some of you are.
I think the pessimism is magnified in regard to us signing CMs.
It's hilarious how much pessimistic some of you are.
I'm optimistic these days when it comes to results, future success or development of our players, I'll happily admit I expect us to challenge for the title and Champions League trophy next season, I expect Welbeck to become a good striker etc. I'm even optimistic when it comes to some transfer targets, when it comes to midfielders though it changes - I simply can't believe that we are ever going to sign one. I've been on this for 2 or 3 years in a row and I've been called all sorts of names for saying that we wouldn't sign one in 2011 and 2012, I'm still on that wagon.
Thanks Crackers.
I'd be delighted with this signing and hope we can pull if off. It wouldn't solve the main midfield issue we have though which is cover/competition/replacement for Carrick.
Thiago + Strootman, Fellaini or A.N.Other of that ilk this Summer and I'd be delighted.
Thiago + Strootman, Fellaini or A.N.Other of that ilk this Summer and I'd be delighted.
It is an absurd position to take. I would bet my house that we sign at least one this window.
Sport is reliable in the sense they print stuff that Barcelona don't mind seeing printed.
The thing no one seems to know is what Thiago is thinking. His dad is talking like he's doing a sales pitch for him, presumably with Thiago's blessing. But that could be just an attempt to get a reaction from Barca. The fact the, "not developing as expected," phrase has been uttered by unknown sources "close to the club" suggests he's got his answer, and unless Thiago himself is very determined to prove something by staying I think he'll decide it's time to leave.
To us? No idea. I don't know why we would be listed as frontrunners, except that he is the kind of player we need and we can probably convince him that he'll get the playing time he needs. Welcome to sunny Manchester on Sea.
Get with the program.. We are front runners because we have been chasing this kid for 2 years!!! There not picking our name out the hat, we made a bid for him last year.
I hope so. Considering the talent that this guy has, I was expecting a media frenzy linking him with every club under the sun and managers across Europe talking about him. The fact that this has not happened is leaving me with a small hope that we may have more or less tied this one up already.
Source?
Oh my lord you really have no idea on this. Millions and millions! That's hilarious.
Every single important market in the world of gambling has a Betfair exchange on it. On the Betfair exchange you can see precisely how much is turned over on the market. At this point in time, there are 8 or so betfair markets on transfer specials. http://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/event?id=26931956
They aren't even 'to the next club' markets as they aren't deemed important enough to create a market. They are just 'stay or go' markets. And the highest turnover on any of those markets so far? 28k on Suarez to leave or stay. Seriously, don't post about gambling if you haven't an utter clue about the business. I still can't get over this line from you, ''Transfer betting is worth millions to the bookies so you can be sure they'll be keeping agents and people with inside knowledge sweet with any information that can give them an edge.''. Got a great laugh from a couple of lads in the office on that one
Sorry wrong choice of word 'inquiry'. Apparently we inquired about him got told he wasn't for sale but our staff believed that Fabregas would stunt his development and he would be where he is now. Not sure if thats a positive or negative for us. Considering we had him down as not improving as a player.
I don't understand. Was this before Thiago signed a new contract with the release clause? Only way that makes sense to me. How could he not be for sale if he has a release clause?
Betting on where an individual player ends up is relatively new. Odds on certain individuals heading to one club have been around a while but offering odds on multiple teams is new one.
It was only activated two weeks ago because he didn't play in 60% of Barca games this season.
FCBarca, would you say there's much chance, if any, that Thiago will remain at Barcelona?
No. I'm speaking about an incident prior to the one you are talking about. The one where Mainoldo said we inquired about Thiago but Barca said he was not for sale. If he has a release clause, Barca saying he is not for sale is irrelevant.
He meant last year, right? Because he didn't have a clause last year. He didn't even have it last month.
We were allegedly interested in him last summer. On approaching Barcelona, they wanted a buy back clause, which we had no interest in pursuing.
He knows as much about it as we do what you asking him for?
Well, he seems the logical person to ask in this thread.
This man speaks sense, the transfer market is worth feck all to bookies and I doubt they have any sort of connections with agents at all. A good agent makes more money from a single transfer than all bookies put together make from the transfer market during the Summer, they'd have no reason to be in touch with them at all. People don't put much money on where players are going to end up, when someone does (usually without knowledge about the deal but no one can be sure) they shorten the odds to prevent a significant loss, that's all. That's why Ribery to Liverpool was once at evens.
Blimey. Maybe I need to review the meaning of release clauses. Isn't there a difference between having a release clause and activating a release clause?
It doesn't make sense to me that Thiago didn't have a release clause last month.
It doesn't make sense to me that Thiago didn't have a release clause last month.
Well yeah, activating the release clause means you've triggered it with the sufficient bid.
He did have it last month, it was 90m it's the 60% of games clause that brings it down.
Whether his release clause is met or not, it depends on whether the player wants to go or not.
Don't all Spanish players have a release clause? So what you are saying is that all Spanish players are for sale..
Whether his release clause is met or not, it depends on whether the player wants to go or not.
Don't all Spanish players have a release clause? So what you are saying is that all Spanish players are for sale..
His contract had a clause that said that if he doesn't play in at least 60% of all Barcelona games in a season he can go as long as someone offers €18m and he agrees to move. He played in less than a half of their games which activated the clause. Had he played in a few more games (I think six or seven) there'd be no option to buy him for €18m.
It's obligatory in Spain to put a release clause into player's contract for law reasons.
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