The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[Classical Mechanic]

This argument is so fecking boring and has been done to death. I just saw that graph and got irritated all over again. There’s some mitigation for the UK in that vaccines wouldn’t be the only export to tank, post-Brexit but the fact that both the UK and US insisted on exclusivity of supply in their contract negotiations with manufacturers, during a global pandemic, is not a good look. And I’ll leave it at that.

Is it a good look that through licensing the AZ vaccine to the Serum Institute FOC that we've helped the mass distribution of vaccines to COVAX countries?

Is it a good look that the 'EU Pfizer vaccine' is making billions in profit from this global crisis?

If you want to talk in vaccine nationalism terms.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is it a good look that through licensing the AZ vaccine to the Surum Institute FOC that we've helped the mass distribution of vaccines to COVAX countries?

Is it a good look that the 'EU Pfizer vaccine' is making billions in profit from this global crisis?

If you want to talk in vaccine nationalism terms.

Now you’re trying to give the UK government credit for some decisions made by private companies having previously implied the government can’t be held responsible for other decisions made by those same companies. Make your mind up.

Pfizer is an American company, by the way. AZ is half British, half Swedish.

Anyway. That really is the last thing I’m saying on this topic. In this thread anyway. Which shouldn’t be for this sort of bickering.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Now you’re trying to give the UK government credit for some decisions made by private companies having previously implied the government can’t be held responsible for other decisions made by those same companies. Make your mind up.

Pfizer is an American company, by the way. AZ is half British, half Swedish.

Anyway. That really is the last thing I’m saying on this topic. In this thread anyway. Which shouldn’t be for this sort of bickering.

I was highlighting the wrongheadedness of your own vaccine nationalist agenda by making a similar kind of facile argument that reversed the villain.

 

[F-Red]

the fact that both the UK and US insisted on exclusivity of supply in their contract negotiations with manufacturers, during a global pandemic, is not a good look. And I’ll leave it at that.

With the death rate that both countries have not being a 'good look' are you really surprised that they prioritised exclusivity of supply compared to getting the best possible price per jab?

 

[lynchie]

Without wanting to start another argument about this, it does illustrate how the UK had essentially no vaccine production before they funded AZ to set up domestic production - something done because relying on places with existing vaccine production capacity was at risk of exactly the sort of trade war shenanigans that we're seeing played out. And anyway, even if the UK plants sent 50% of their production to the EU, it would hardly make a difference to the EU rollout, but it would basically halt the UK rollout of 1st doses and probably compromise their ability to honour 2nd doses.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Without wanting to start another argument about this, it does illustrate how the UK had essentially no vaccine production before they funded AZ to set up domestic production - something done because relying on places with existing vaccine production capacity was at risk of exactly the sort of trade war shenanigans that we're seeing played out. And anyway, even if the UK plants sent 50% of their production to the EU, it would hardly make a difference to the EU rollout, but it would basically halt the UK rollout of 1st doses and probably compromise their ability to honour 2nd doses.

I do agree that the absolute numbers coming out of the Uk are small enough as to be fairly irrelevant in the bigger picture. The US protectionism stands out far more on a global scale.

Anyhoo. After bollocking other people for Brexit-y bickering in a thread that should really be focused on the vaccines I’ll apologise for posting that tweet and hope the discussion moves along.

 

[Raoul]

Received Pfizer #2 on Wednesday. No issues whatsoever.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

 

[F-Red]

That's potentially game changing for Pfizer surely? Distribution outside of medical facilities with ultra cold storage should be much easier.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

That's potentially game changing for Pfizer surely? Distribution outside of medical facilities with ultra cold storage should be much easier.

Definitely. Although the two weeks limit will pose its own logistical challenges.

Getting those two manufacturing plants online is great news for everyone.

 

[Eboue]

just got the first dose of moderna

 

[jojojo]

Just to add to the contractual fun and talk of export bans etc, a little cameo appearance by the as yet unapproved vaccine from Novavax.

An article appeared yesterday on Reuters citing an anonymous EU source explaining why the EU hasn't yet signed a contract with Novavax. The article suggested Novavax were blaming the contract delay on "legal issues", but suggesting that in reality they were stalling because they had raw material and supply problems.

Unsurprisingly their share price took a tumble and JP Morgan had to release a briefing for them explaining that their main supply issue at the moment is on the finish and fill side - they're struggling to get the sheer number of filters and vials etc needed. Basically an area where their competition is the other vaccine makers, and everyone's waiting for more supplies, with them looking for locations where they are nearer the front of the queue.

Their European vaccine factories are starting to produce bulk product - antigen on multiple sites including the UK, Spain, Czech republic and adjuvant in Sweden. They also think they're on track to produce 150m doses/month globally by the end of Q2 - but I don't know how that's split - I know in the longer term (Q3/Q4) a lot of production, including their production for Covax, will be in India.

They do warn though that their US and European supply chains are interlinked, with ingredients moving in both directions to create the finished product. Meanwhile Novavax say they'll be going to the MHRA for approval first ("because that's where the trial was").

Will vaccine diplomacy win out or will they be the next company to go under the PR nightmare microscope? At any rate, it's really not hard to believe that they might be taking their time over every legal clause in the agreement with the EU particularly anything that sounds like a delivery schedule

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Just to add to the contractual fun and talk of export bans etc, a little cameo appearance by the as yet unapproved vaccine from Novavax.

An article appeared yesterday on Reuters citing an anonymous EU source explaining why the EU hasn't yet signed a contract with Novavax. The article suggested Novavax were blaming the contract delay on "legal issues", but suggesting that in reality they were stalling because they had raw material and supply problems.

Unsurprisingly their share price took a tumble and JP Morgan had to release a briefing for them explaining that their main supply issue at the moment is on the finish and fill side - they're struggling to get the sheer number of filters and vials etc needed. Basically an area where their competition is the other vaccine makers, and everyone's waiting for more supplies, with them looking for locations where they are nearer the front of the queue.

Their European vaccine factories are starting to produce bulk product - antigen on multiple sites including the UK, Spain, Czech republic and adjuvant in Sweden. They also think they're on track to produce 150m doses/month globally by the end of Q2 - but I don't know how that's split - I know in the longer term (Q3/Q4) a lot of production, including their production for Covax, will be in India.

They do warn though that their US and European supply chains are interlinked, with ingredients moving in both directions to create the finished product. Meanwhile Novavax say they'll be going to the MHRA for approval first ("because that's where the trial was").

Will vaccine diplomacy win out or will they be the next company to go under the PR nightmare microscope? At any rate, it's really not hard to believe that they might be taking their time over every legal clause in the agreement with the EU particularly anything that sounds like a delivery schedule

The global shortage of vials and filters (and low dead space syringes) is such a pain in the arse. It would be typical of this stupid fecking pandemic for there to be tens of thousands of pallets stranded in the Suez canal.

 

[Ecstatic]

Received Pfizer #2 on Wednesday. No issues whatsoever.

just got the first dose of moderna

Congratulations the legends of RedCafe

 

[Eendracht maakt macht]

Woke up this mornin',
I got them vaccine blues ...

 

[Pogue Mahone]

if i was infected by this virus i would simply fight it off using my immune system

just got the first dose of moderna

The circle of life.

 

[F-Red]

The circle of life.

 

[Balljy]

So the first subtle mentions of possibly not having enough for all second doses in England have started to get in the press with one comment being from the EU. That's not great, especially as it's 12 weeks in England anyway and it becomes a study of what happens at 16 weeks etc with no data to fall back on. You could argue 12 weeks was that anyway but an unknown amount of time between doses will be very different to a pre-set 12 weeks.

 

[Snowjoe]

So the first subtle mentions of possibly not having enough for all second doses in England have started to get in the press with one comment being from the EU. That's not great, especially as it's 12 weeks in England anyway and it becomes a study of what happens at 16 weeks etc with no data to fall back on. You could argue 12 weeks was that anyway but an unknown amount of time between doses will be very different to a pre-set 12 weeks.

I dunno that sounds like typical bluster from that french politician, we’ll see what happens but this is the reason we are restricting new doses next month

 

[Pogue Mahone]

So the first subtle mentions of possibly not having enough for all second doses in England have started to get in the press with one comment being from the EU. That's not great, especially as it's 12 weeks in England anyway and it becomes a study of what happens at 16 weeks etc with no data to fall back on. You could argue 12 weeks was that anyway but an unknown amount of time between doses will be very different to a pre-set 12 weeks.

I wouldn’t worry too much about a delay from 12 to 16 weeks with AZ. It’s licensed for 12 week gap and when your second dose is that far out it’s basically a booster anyway. There’s zero evidence that immunity suddenly falls off a cliff after exactly 12 weeks. In fact, there’s zero evidence about duration of efficacy full stop!

 

[Dancfc]

With all the variant talk creeping up to the forefront again I was wondering does anyone have the stats on how many people (worldwide) have got severely ill or died through a variant despite being vaccinated?

I've tried to find it but no luck so far.

 

[Dancfc]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...h-covid-in-uk-since-december-have-had-vaccine

1 in 25 people in hospital have been vaccinated and the vast majority of them before the two weeks it takes to build immunity.

 

[BD]

What's the latest thoughts on whether the vaccines just prevent symptoms, or do they also prevent someone from getting and passing on Covid?

 

[lynchie]

So the first subtle mentions of possibly not having enough for all second doses in England have started to get in the press with one comment being from the EU. That's not great, especially as it's 12 weeks in England anyway and it becomes a study of what happens at 16 weeks etc with no data to fall back on. You could argue 12 weeks was that anyway but an unknown amount of time between doses will be very different to a pre-set 12 weeks.

UK is currently about 2 weeks ahead of the 12 week gap schedule, so there's a bit of slack in the system in any case. I'm hopeful it's all bluster. France need something new to poke at now the UK are ahead of them on 2nd doses.

 

[Ecstatic]

EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, meanwhile, singled out AstraZeneca for criticism.
"AstraZeneca has been an issue," he said. "I just remind you that we were expecting to have 120 million doses... and finally we got 30 million. So we had a problem with this company."

 

[africanspur]

EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, meanwhile, singled out AstraZeneca for criticism.
"AstraZeneca has been an issue," he said. "I just remind you that we were expecting to have 120 million doses... and finally we got 30 million. So we had a problem with this company."

Looks like the EU wants to put the blame on the UK

Interestingly, AZ told the UK that they'd have 30 million AZ doses by September 2020. That is more than the entirety of all doses administered, both pfizer and AZ in the UK, so far, at the end of March, 6 months later.

The UK also received far less pfizer doses than initially promised in 2020 as well.

It happens and will likely continue to happen.

The rhetoric has been and continues to be incredibly irresponsible. I wonder if its also partly to account for the issues with Novovax contract too.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, meanwhile, singled out AstraZeneca for criticism.
"AstraZeneca has been an issue," he said. "I just remind you that we were expecting to have 120 million doses... and finally we got 30 million. So we had a problem with this company."

Looks like the EU wants to put the blame on the UK

Weird to use a quote which specifically blamed the company to claim they’re trying to blame the UK.

 

[Ecstatic]

Weird to use a quote which specifically blamed the company to claim they’re trying to blame the UK.

Was thinking about the French politician who suggests that the UK is the issue

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Interestingly, AZ told the UK that they'd have 30 million AZ doses by September 2020. That is more than the entirety of all doses administered, both pfizer and AZ in the UK, so far, at the end of March, 6 months later.

The UK also received far less pfizer doses than initially promised in 2020 as well.

It happens and will likely continue to happen.

The rhetoric has been and continues to be incredibly irresponsible. I wonder if its also partly to account for the issues with Novovax contract too.

From talking to people involved in the roll-out in Ireland AZ are being uniquely difficult to work with. Shortages can happen. It’s how they are communicated that winds people up. Pfizer made it clear, very early on, that they were not going to meet their commitments but this was because they were working on increased capacity for Q2/3. Then they’ve provided this reduced quantity at the rate they said they would.

With AZ the goalposts are moving constantly. They don’t seem to be able to meet their delivery schedule, week by week, with GPs up in arms at having to cancel appointments and nobody being able to make any sort of sensible advanced plans using this vaccine. That frustration gets passed up the chain and the company gets a bad reputation amongst the politicians who are ultimately being held responsible. It’s all the more frustrating because this vaccine should be the one with the most straightforward supply chain (i.e. no need for ultra cold storage etc)

 

[africanspur]

From talking to people involved in the roll-out in Ireland AZ are being uniquely difficult to work with. Shortages can happen. It’s how they are communicated that winds people up. Pfizer made it clear, very early on, that they were not going to meet their commitments but this was because they were working on increased capacity for Q2/3. Then they’ve provided this reduced quantity at the rate they said they would.

With AZ the goalposts are moving constantly. They don’t seem to be able to meet their delivery schedule, week by week, with GPs up in arms at having to cancel appointments and nobody being able to make any sort of sensible advanced plans using this vaccine. That frustration gets passed up the chain and the company gets a bad reputation amongst the politicians who are ultimately being held responsible. It’s all the more frustrating because this vaccine should be the one with the most straightforward supply chain (i.e. no need for ultra cold storage etc)

I'm not denying that AZ haven't covered themselves in glory at all here. Whoever was in charge of their PR strategy (or indeed some of their trial designs) in particular probably needs firing.

Pfizer provided far fewer doses than promised to the UK in 2020, well before they were talking about having to reduce production for a subsequent ramp up. They have also exported millions of doses to Israel, at least in part due to Israel paying far more per dose than in the EU (and I assume the UK/USA too). And as I said, in the UK, where the perception across the EC (and seemingly on here) is that we've hoovered up all available AZ doses, we've given out less doses of vaccine than the total number promised to us by AZ by September 2020.

Also surely AZ aren't exporting to individual countries in the EU? I'd have thought they're exporting to the EU as a whole, with the commission then deciding who gets what based on population size? Certainly seems to have been some scuffles between individual member states about their allocations, which doesn't really imply to me that AZ are shipping to individual countries.

As I said, AZ and the UK haven't covered themselves in glory but some of the rhetoric is just bloody weird.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I'm not denying that AZ haven't covered themselves in glory at all here. Whoever was in charge of their PR strategy (or indeed some of their trial designs) in particular probably needs firing.

Pfizer provided far fewer doses than promised to the UK in 2020, well before they were talking about having to reduce production for a subsequent ramp up. They have also exported millions of doses to Israel, at least in part due to Israel paying far more per dose than in the EU (and I assume the UK/USA too). And as I said, in the UK, where the perception across the EC (and seemingly on here) is that we've hoovered up all available AZ doses, we've given out less doses of vaccine than the total number promised to us by AZ by September 2020.

Also surely AZ aren't exporting to individual countries in the EU? I'd have thought they're exporting to the EU as a whole, with the commission then deciding who gets what based on population size? Certainly seems to have been some scuffles between individual member states about their allocations, which doesn't really imply to me that AZ are shipping to individual countries.

As I said, AZ and the UK haven't covered themselves in glory but some of the rhetoric is just bloody weird.

All the pharma companies ship directly to individual countries. Using established supply chains. Would be insanely complicated to have some massive warehouse somewhere in the EU collecting all the vaccines from the company, then shipping out to assorted EU countries.

The quantities that an individual country gets overall (which is a % of total supply) is agreed at an EU level in advance but it’s up to the company to get those quantities to each country in a timely manner, making sure they know in advance exactly how much stock to expect in each delivery. Which AZ seems to be unusually bad at.

I do agree the rhetoric is weird but wanted to explain why AZ is the focus of so much more criticism than Pfizer/Moderna. They’ve under delivered to a greater extent and been bad at communicating and managing this reduced stock.

 

[Gandalf Greyhame]

There's a surplus of Covishield (AZ) in my city in India, they either have to administer these doses or throw them away. So it's almost a free for all walk-in exercise now.

India is still not rolling out a vaccine drive for my age group yet (I'm 26), but I walked into a clinic today, got registered, and then got my first jab nonetheless.

 

[Balljy]

All the pharma companies ship directly to individual countries. Using established supply chains. Would be insanely complicated to have some massive warehouse somewhere in the EU collecting all the vaccines from the company, then shipping out to assorted EU countries.

The quantities that an individual country gets overall (which is a % of total supply) is agreed at an EU level in advance but it’s up to the company to get those quantities to each country in a timely manner, making sure they know in advance exactly how much stock to expect in each delivery. Which AZ seems to be unusually bad at.

I do agree the rhetoric is weird but wanted to explain why AZ is the focus of so much more criticism than Pfizer/Moderna. They’ve under delivered to a greater extent and been bad at communicating and managing this reduced stock.

It's impossible to take a guess why that would be the case and it may be just poor communication from AZ which would be unforgiveable.

The difference could be where the constraints are as if Phizer have a manufacturing constraint in the vaccine itself they will have a set prediction of the manufacturing ramp-up which is under their control and this can be communicated to logistics to deal with. If the constraint is with packaging / bottling etc this can be unpredictable as it's then reliant on those suppliers and I know from personal experience of 15 years working with these sort of companies that you can be told one thing and the stock you've been promised suddenly has a 2 week delay at no notice.

Packaging in particular has long lead times and there can be delays of weeks for no apparent reason - normally companies will order months in advance to mitigate those issues and hold excess stock (which is viable on those items as they are not use-by-date constrained).

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's impossible to take a guess why that would be the case and it may be just poor communication from AZ which would be unforgiveable.

The difference could be where the constraints are as if Phizer have a manufacturing constraint in the vaccine itself they will have a set prediction of the manufacturing ramp-up which is under their control and this can be communicated to logistics to deal with. If the constraint is with packaging / bottling etc this can be unpredictable as it's then reliant on those suppliers and I know from personal experience of 15 years working with these sort of companies that you can be told one thing and the stock you've been promised suddenly has a 2 week delay at no notice.

Packaging in particular has long lead times and there can be delays of weeks for no apparent reason - normally companies will order months in advance to mitigate those issues and hold excess stock (which is viable on those items as they are not use-by-date constrained).

For sure. I don’t think they’re deliberately fecking with us. It’s all down to stuff outside their control and I can guarantee there’s nothing they’d like more than to be fulfilling all their commitments. But, for some reason, they do seem to be a little less capable than the other companies.

In my opinion, this is most likely because they’re the only company with absolutely no track record of vaccine development and distribution. Without that legacy they’re having to establish new contacts for every part of their supply chain and learn lessons as they go along. I’m sure its as frustrating for them as it is for their customers but I also understand why customers are being so much more critical of them than they are of the established players in this space.

 

[Balljy]

For sure. I don’t think they’re deliberately fecking with us. It’s all down to stuff outside their control and I can guarantee there’s nothing they’d like more than to be fulfilling all their commitments. But, for some reason, they do seem to be a little less capable than the other companies.

In my opinion, this is most likely because they’re the only company with absolutely no track record of vaccine development and distribution. Without that legacy they’re having to establish new contacts for every part of their supply chain and learn lessons as they go along. I’m sure its as frustrating for them as it is for their customers but I also understand why customers are being so much more critical of them than they are of the established players in this space.

I didn't realise AZ were so new to vaccine development and it will definitely explain the supply chain issues if they're having to build them from scratch. We'll probably see some high level procurement people moving to AZ to try and sort out their issues before too long then.

 

[11101]

For sure. I don’t think they’re deliberately fecking with us. It’s all down to stuff outside their control and I can guarantee there’s nothing they’d like more than to be fulfilling all their commitments. But, for some reason, they do seem to be a little less capable than the other companies.

In my opinion, this is most likely because they’re the only company with absolutely no track record of vaccine development and distribution. Without that legacy they’re having to establish new contacts for every part of their supply chain and learn lessons as they go along. I’m sure its as frustrating for them as it is for their customers but I also understand why customers are being so much more critical of them than they are of the established players in this space.

It's not really the delivery delays that are winding the EU up so much. They happen to everybody, Pfizer at the beginning and then J&J the other week.

It's the communication and the excuses that are getting Europe's back up, and there is a growing belief that they are playing games. The excuses for the delays keep changing and they won't give straight answers about the schedules, and then the police find those 30m doses sitting in a warehouse for 2 months. Regardless of who they were for, what on earth were they doing there?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's not really the delivery delays that are winding the EU up so much. They happen to everybody, Pfizer at the beginning and then J&J the other week.

It's the communication and the excuses that are getting Europe's back up, and there is a growing belief that they are playing games. The excuses for the delays keep changing and they won't give straight answers about the schedules, and then the police find those 30m doses sitting in a warehouse for 2 months. Regardless of who they were for, what on earth were they doing there?

I refuse to believe there were 30m doses ready to be shipped, just sitting in a warehouse for two months. That’s absolute madness. How reliable a source are you getting that information from?

 

[jojojo]

Pfizer provided far fewer doses than promised to the UK in 2020, well before they were talking about having to reduce production for a subsequent ramp up. They have also exported millions of doses to Israel, at least in part due to Israel paying far more per dose than in the EU (and I assume the UK/USA too). And as I said, in the UK, where the perception across the EC (and seemingly on here) is that we've hoovered up all available AZ doses, we've given out less doses of vaccine than the total number promised to us by AZ by September 2020.

Yep, I think people are looking for conspiracies and fraud when all they're really seeing is a mix of wishful thinking and complicated supply chains and processing setups that keep stumbling over new delays.

AZ planned to produce 30m doses (bulk product) for the UK by the end of September (government funded "at risk" production) and they did start batch production early, but even so they had actually only produced 19m by early January. Only 3.5m of those were finished to the point where they were ready for batch testing by the regulators. That process in itself normally takes 3/4 weeks (for biological reasons - they're making sure the mix is sterile) but apparently is now down to 5 days because the regulators are collecting samples (vials) in parallel with AZ rather than afterwards.

Just to add a bit of timing context. The brewing stage apparently takes around 6 weeks, followed by quality (purity, concentration) tests. Finish and fill is currently a bottleneck (...sorry) for all the manufacturers, and probably worse for AZ as their procurement chain isn't used to the volumes they're trying to produce. They then need another round of quality testing, in-house and aby the regulators. The UK checks as I say are now largely happening in parallel between AZ and the regulator. It sounds like that's not happening in Europe. At any rate you're looking at a process that takes two/three months and can stumble at any stage if you hit a shortage or a batch fails a quality check.

AZ are paying a very heavy price for wishful thinking and poor communication.

 

[Balljy]

I refuse to believe there were 30m doses ready to be shipped, just sitting in a warehouse for two months. That’s absolute madness. How reliable a source are you getting that information from?

Both AZ and Italian officials have commented on that (although I'm not sure where the 2 months have come from). AZ said some had been recently signed off for covax countries with the rest headed to Belgium for EU supply when clearance had been obtained. The Italian officials reiterated the fact about the EU portion so that whole story just seems full of disinformation.

EU hit by more COVID vaccine turmoil as 29 million doses of AZ jab discovered in Italian warehouse (yahoo.com)

Vaccine factory in Italy raided after AstraZeneca falsely accused of hiding doses bound for UK (telegraph.co.uk)

 

[11101]

I refuse to believe there were 30m doses ready to be shipped, just sitting in a warehouse for two months. That’s absolute madness. How reliable a source are you getting that information from?

La Stampa first published it, which is one of the biggest and oldest newspapers in Italy. Backed up by EU and Italian officials.

Obviously AZ immediately denied it and everybody has been doing damage control since then so I doubt we will ever find out the real story, but nonetheless they were sitting there and nobody within the EU had any idea they were there. They were found because a minister questioned why a factory with a 5 million a month capacity couldn't account for 6 months worth of production.