Freud, I think.
The Trump Presidency | Biden Inaugurated
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"We are masters of the unsaid words, but slaves of those we let slip out."
Apparently attributed to Winston Churchill
Have you looked at his criteria? Half of them are totally subjective.
Grim.
Add Erdogan and all those others lurking in the shadows and it really is grim
Who'd have thought we'd be relying on the Germans to be the good guys this time, eh?
The Security Council wouldn't really be any more or less effective than it is now. The mere presence of Russia and China virtually guarantees that any human rights related resolutions face stiff headwinds.
Who'd have thought we'd be relying on the Germans to be the good guys this time, eh?
Why would France be different from Germany who just got a far right surge 2 months ago? Remember, Le Pen got crushed in the second round of the Regional one year ago, just after the terrorist attack, when people were fairly angry.
Still, a far-right populist as the leader of a major European power, with the US in the same position and the UK backing off from Europe? A very grim situation still.
Watching the news and Nigel Farage is at Trump tower meeting him......
Don't think his name has been brought up in this thread (maybe because it's stating the fecking obvious), but my guess on forehand is that the best "comparison" for Trump's reign will be Silvio Berlusconi.
I think he's making a historical reference
They've gotten a surge but from what I can see from polling Merkel still maintains a comfortable lead even though her popularity has dipped. Le Pen, however, is second favourite to win the Presidency next year...and you can adjust that to make her the favourite when you consider how populist, right-wing options have typically been underestimated this year.
And it was partly tongue-in-cheek, too...
My impression is that she lost, in part, because of the French system. If those votes had translated directly into power or seats, how would she have done ? Plus, sometimes these things take time to happen, to become assimilated as acceptable (the Overton Window ) Might the terrorists strike again at a "suitable" time ? Might they actually have a strategy ?
Ambassador to the U.K.
Luckily there's a run-off, though, and Le Pen wouldn't have a base of reluctant conservatives to push her over the line if she's up against someone from the centre-right, and you can trust the Socialist voters to act in the national interest, just about.
Then again, not exactly safe to make any kind of prediction based on prior behaviour and logic any more.
Good stuff from @ BeardedGenius.
How's Geert Wilders doing in the Netherlands these days?
Actually you can't make her favorite when you know french politic, the big problem for her is that at the exception of Dupont-Aignant no other candidate will see their electors move to Le pen in the second round.
She will be high in the first round and relatively far from the winner in the second round.
Based on polls right now, his party will be the biggest after election. Elections will be held in March 2017. Current Prime Minister's party has nearly the same scores in the polls though.
Tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph - Trump and Putin alliance sparks diplomatic crisis. Apparently Putin has been sending him 'beautiful letters'
The Sunday Times - UK envoys memo on how Britain will aim to tame Trump has leaked. Want to exploit his status as outsider political novice and help evolve his more extreme ideas
The Sunday Times - UK envoys memo on how Britain will aim to tame Trump has leaked. Want to exploit his status as outsider political novice and help evolve his more extreme ideas
How does the system work? Will that be enough for him to be PM or will a coalition form against him?
I think what is clear is that when somebody disagrees with your point of view you feel the need to insult them.
Currently tied first according to the "polls". However the elections still a few months away. Last time he was also leading in the polls (or polling high), but in the last few weeks two other big parties started a bit of mini-war in contrasting economic plans which polarised the people, leading to these two parties sucking most of the votes from the other parties (including Wilders), and both ended up forming the government by themselves without the inclusion of any other party (doesn't happen that often as there are many parties).
Wilders, unlike Brexit and Trump will have two major disadvantages though. First, he was already a part of the government a few years back (got a lot of seats) but the government soon collapsed as he didn't cooperate with the other parties (and he was polling high at the time and thought an early election would secure him more seats). That experience discouraged some people from voting for him, because he won't reach a majority by himself, and nobody wants to work with him so a vote for him is basically a lost vote. And the second challenge, unlike with Brexit where they had only two choices, or Trump where there were two main kandidates, there are a lot of parties in the Netherlands that it's not possible for any party to get even close to 50% by itself. The biggest parties are usually hovering over 20%.
He will probably get a considerable number of seats, but he's not going to be influential.
For ages it's been 'common law' for the biggest party to deliver the PM. But there's no actual constitutional law that dictates this. This subject has been discussed by all parties over the last years and consensus (nearly unanimous) has been that the biggest party is not entitled to do this.
It will be very hard for Wilders to become PM if his party has the most votes, because the only big party who declared themselves open to form a coalition with Wilders's party is that of the current Prime Minister, who's obviously not going going to form a coalition with them if Wilders wants to take over his place.
At the moment the Wilders party is on 28 seats in the polls. Current PM's party is on 27 seats. You need a coalition of 76/150 seats to rule. So as it stands, Wilders hasn't got a good chance to become the PM (despite having the biggest party, this is a result of the massive fragmentation of politics at the moment).
If his party ends up with 40 or 50 seats however, he might form a coalition with some smaller ones and then he could become PM. Over the last 50 years it's definitely happened a few times that one party got 40-50 seats. Wilders has been around for long now, and he was also very, very popular in 2010. His party got 24 seats back then. All in all, while it looks unlikely now, literally everything seems possible these days. And even more with the Americanization kicking in.
But still the only fair verdict at this moment is 'unlikely', for very different reasons than why Trump was considered unlikely.
By way of comparison - PA 1.2%, Florida 1.2%, NC 3.8%, Ohio 8.6%, Iowa 9.5%.
Texas - 9.1%.
Looks like someone is in pussy grabbing attire.
She overperformed in dark red states and underperformed in swing states.
He really won due to an unbelievable set of circumstances that is hard to fathom.
Won the nomination because of a divided field and the establishment not having the balls to fight him. There were a majority of votes cast against him than for him in the primaries.
And then won the general by threading the eye of the needle in terms of the electoral college despite once again having the majority of people vote against him.
Everything just fell perfectly for him at the right time including the Comey letter.
I guess it was just meant to be.
That photograph genuinely makes me feel sick.
All they're missing is Big Sam and they can go on the lash.
Cheer up, at least we know that Trump will be able to wrestle the big issues of politics...
This is the President of America...
I want to cry. That just sums up everything that is wrong with the world. I honestly don't think the USA has the slightest idea what it has done yet.It feels like we are in that part of a film where everything that could possibly go wrong does and the bad guys get their way. Only in films you know everything will correct itself.
Half of it doesn't, but give it time.
That's a horribly accurate.
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