A lot of them will abandon Trump too if the Republicans ditch him, he might be able to get a decent portion of votes as 3rd party candidate but Republicans will simply vote for the next guy to try and prevent another Democrat victory or not show up like Bernie voters.
The Trump Presidency | Biden Inaugurated
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He has done more to advance the GOP agenda more than any politician I have seen. I am not talking about him being a giod senator. He's been terrible but from a conservative pov, he's been massive for them.
It might actually be a Democrat who thinks that Trump is a manatee
Manatees if given the chance will create a fascist ruling class in their own image.
MANTIFA one might say
Reminded of those Trump supporters who superglued MAGA hats on pigeons.
Impeachment might just end up letting Republicans say "see, we were against him too!"
That's not great.
That's not great.
No, and I imagine that they will revert to their obstructionist status quo as soon as humanly possible.
With all that said, I think conviction and preventing Trump from running again sends an important message now and for the future too. Trump is not the problem, it's the next Trump who is actually a decent politician that could collapse the Republic.
It won't make any difference. Trump will set his MAGA base against non-Trump Republicans - it's going to be a party riven by internal civil war.
If the non-Trump Republicans win the war, then much of the MAGA base will not vote Republican - they'll either abstain, or vote for a 3rd party. Good news for the Dems.
If the MAGA base wins the war, and thus selects a large number of of MAGA candidates for elected office, then those candidates will get trashed at the polls by the Dems.
No, it’s really odd.
Seeing as he's probably been sobbing uncontrollably and eating his own faeces in the days since his insurrection failed, I think I'm onto something with the liver disease.
The problem is that with the wight that Trump vision has in the GOP most likely will be the second but it will shift the whole political spectrum towards more MAGA like. Forget to mobilize so many democrats like with Biden. This was once in a lifetime because it was all antiTrump vote. next time, much less people will vote for a democratic candidate (same statewise) and the MAGAnuts will keep voting for their candidates like a sect if they are endorsed by Trump
This is false. There was some crossover from R’s that were anti-Trump, but the vast majority of the Biden vote was the Dem base and left leaning people. To see this just look at the GA runoff. Almost every dem county outperformed their Rep counties in terms of voting compared to the Nov election.
What this would do is make even more stark the contrast between the Dems and and a fully MAGA GOP. But to win many elections, the MAGA base is not enough by itself - and attracting non-MAGA Republican voters would be made even more difficult if the whole party becomes MAGA, because it makes the party even less attractive and even more repulsive.
For electoral success you need to attract at least some of centre/moderate ground, along with a good chunk of independents: a fully MAGA party will find it difficult to do either of these things.
It's the delusion of MAGAs that they are wildly popular and only lost thru vote rigging. But actually they lost because 4 years of Trumpism has turned off some and riled up the opposition. A fully MAGA GOP would only magnify this effect,.
Maybe I shouldn't be so absolute on my afirmations. Is just my opinion. Yes Biden could have votes of D, independents, left and some R. But what it made Biden win is mobilization. Next time, IMO will not participate as much, at 10-15% and some Rs will go back to GOP. If Trump vouch for some R that is less caustic and have a better image (not difficult comparing to Trump) + that Biden will be old fashioned conservative Ds, you will have a easy MAGA president in 2024. Again my opinion
With Trump, he got more votes got more votes than Obama, and Biden is just the anti Trump. A more MAGA centered smart guy, will crush the 2024. trumpism is here to stay and brought the risk of the US to politically collapse with uncertain results, but for i think will pull the political spectrum to nationalism and authoritarism. Fortunately, I think the institutions will hold
What you are not taking into account is that there will be an midterm election in 2022 of many current key MAGA senators & congresspersons. We have had voting levels never before seen in some states, Georgia especially, & the increase in voting was on the left. Much of that momentum started & was maintained from the 2018 midterm election. The Republican Party will not grow in numbers from today, especially not in the short term of the next five to ten years. There won’t be any coalescing within that party.
There’s always the possibility of a Tea Party-esque resurgence in 2022, but there’s a lot going against that, most importantly the president not being black nor a woman. The lunatics have shot their wad somewhat, this probably was their last chance to take the presidency for at least another election.
But, the presidency isn’t where it is worrisome. It’s the state legislatures where the mental deficiency still has a stranglehold over politics that really matter to constituents. The House is also worrisome as it is heavily skewed to the lunatics due to gerrymandering. Dems start off every House campaign with a ten to fifteen member deficit.
More votes isn’t quality politics. More votes is due to more people being able to vote (are of age) & more people enthused to vote. Sure, Trump got more votes than Obama got, but look at the increase in total popular votes from 1992 to now. This specious argument could be used in many consecutive election results, but the main factor in voting increase is simply more people are able to vote. Then enthusiasm comes into play.
You’re parroting right wing talking points by stating that Biden simply won as an anti-Trump candidate.
BIden is an anti-Trump who also got more votes than Obama ... way more votes.
Some of the vote-rise for both Trump and Biden is down to simple population growth in the 8 years since Obama last ran for offfice. But some of the bigger vote rise for Biden is down to the revulsion felt by many for Trump and MAGA-ism.
People were fooled once by Trump. They weren't fooled 2nd time around, and they won't be fooled next time by MAGA-smart ... especially not a MAGA-smart that has emerged victorious (if it does) from a GOP civil war against moderate/non-Trumpite Republicans. Do you imagine these defeated/homeless Republicans are going to turn out in any great numbers for MAGA-Smart? No, many will either stay home, vote independent or vote Democrat.
The GOP will not hold the Presidency again for a generation ... or not unless the Dems feck things up astronomically.
And the Blue wave was supposed to happen and only 50% of the population turned out and the Democrats lost seats on the Senate. And yes, more votes doesn't mean quality politics, and the votes on quantity I agree is not to measure an election, just a comparison of how absurd had been than Trump in absolute terms had more votes than Obama in just 12 years. But the uptick of 62% on vote intention will not happen again if there is not a clima like this elections. And yes, Biden simply won as anti-Trump candidate, I don't care if the right or the left or the centre said it. In a Bipartisan system, penalizing vote existed always, and people that wanted Bernie, voted an antithesis like Biden. And many more. Is the so called "useful" vote and it existed forever. Biden barely had to push his policies and his adds were basically anti-Trump
Using absolute numbers was a mistake but show the absurdity of how Trump (the loser, not the winer of the elections) got more votes than Obama not that long ago with one of the candidates that awaked more "hope" of change, but we can focus on the uptick of % in vote, the biggest since 1900.
People forget super easy and the focus will be 4 years on Biden, not an nonexistent R candidate, and he will need to do it perfect to not allienate the independents and left wings of his party. The R that voted for him will go back to the R candidate. Biden is a very sad profile of a president and I don't see him winning a second term (if he survives literally the first)
There’s nothing absurd about the absolute votes. Just like you said a couple of sentences later, it’s a bipartisan system, there’s only usually two outlets to receive votes. Again, look at popular voting since 1992 (maybe not the best year due to there being three candidates), but the winning popular vote almost doubled from 42ish million to 81ish million. There’s nothing magical or voodoo or mystical about Trump receiving more votes than Obama did 12 years ago, it’s simply following the curve. It’s not due in any appreciable amount to the Trump majesty.
I agree it gets far more messy when you look at congressional votes & state votes. But we did just see something unprecedented in Georgia; if there’s a Latino Stacey Abrams who does similar work in Texas, we could easily be seeing Texas as the next Georgia in 2024. Florida could soon go that path as well. If the left gets one or both of these states, it’s effectively over for the Republicans in the presidential & senatorial races for the foreseeable future. Lunatics will always be voted in to House positions due in large part to the makeup of the districts.
We’re not going to see another Trump ever, someone so categorically unfit for office. We may see, as you state, a more polished Trumpist, but we’ve also never been quite here before in modern political times, especially with covid. It’s a bit soft & rather weak to just say that simply because Trump got more votes than Obama from over a decade ago that we will see a Trump resurgence in 2024. There’s a lot of reasons that we won’t. Those reasons dwarf why we will.
But, who knows? We were mentally deficient enough to have our Trump in office, but now we know what can happen if we do again.
There’s going to be a large amount of the R defectors that voted for Biden who do not go back to the R party in the next presidential election, perhaps ever. I would say the vast majority of these voters will remain independent or even go D in those states where they need to declare their allegiance. Unless there’s a massive, durable cull in the R party, the defectors won’t go back. It’s far deeper than just Trump, it’s the current Trumpist flavor of the party that will continue to disaffect those who bailed from the party. That stain & stink won’t go away in just two or four years.
The population can increase in 8 years, but you still have to be voter eligible which takes into account age, citizenship, and registration. The increase for both Biden and Trump comes down to a record-high voter turnout for a Presidential Election. Biden won swing states that went for Trump 4 years ago due to an increase in voter turnaround and yes, some Trump votes went to Biden. Also, Jill Stein and Gary Johnson received a percent or two in some states, which would have made all the difference if that was the case this past election as it was in 2016 for a non-Democrat/Republican candidate.
Also, saying a GOP candidate will not hold the U.S. Presidency again for a generation is a huge stretch. Since 1953 (pre-Eisenhower), no political party has held the Executive branch for 3 consecutive terms.
Depending on how his initial 4 year term goes, how VP Harris positions herself and what her role is under Biden, how the DNC strategizes their campaign, and a whole host of other factors....I just cannot see Biden running for a 2nd term. And if anything like the past 4 years continues for the next 4 to 5 years, I find it hard for VP Harris to ascend to the Democratic Party nominee for the President of the U.S. purely based on her sex and skin color (as shallow and fecked up as that is, I'm just not sure the whole of the DNC nor America is ready for a woman and a woman of color to be President - I could careless if it's a woman as there has been plenty of women political leaders across the world for decades...women can do the job).
And it's not whether or not the DNC or RNC feck up and hurt their own chances, it's more along the lines of having viable candidates who can withstand the bullshit from their own party and rival party, yet be able to connect with enough voters to have a shot at winning.
If Trump runs in 2024 as an independent, he'll split the republican vote.
Does the McConnell news mean that there's not much of a future in the Republican party for Kushner, Ivanka, Eric and Don Jr, etc?
Does the McConnell news mean that there's not much of a future in the Republican party for Kushner, Ivanka, Eric and Don Jr, etc?
Ill take you on the first part of you last sentece: "Who knows"
Obviously my opinion is just an opinion and yes. Democrats have motive to be optimistic on states turning blue. Florida and Texas are going this way as well as bordering states of the coast. It just make sense as the rural states are becoming less and less rural. Coastal states becoming more overpopulated leaving to the states besides. Texas seems to receive an influx of new technology workers, etc... And that is a side of the story
But what happened with Trump we never thought it would happen. Is tearing apart not only the GOP but all the political system and even the institutions of the US. Maybe it will settle, I believe it wont as Biden is more of the same preTrump. He is older than Bill Clinton that was a president almost 20 years ago. He will not act different, he doesn't represent change and D and R knows it and will give arguments to the new R to use the same argumentation as Trump and like it or not, Trumpism is the majority POV of the GOP currently and part of his views and behaviour, will be used for the D candidates in conservative states if they can fudge it with the D agenda, and that will drag the Dem to that side of the story, because the left lost when Bernie lost unfortunately
But again, as you say, who knows
If there's anyone in the world that could make me believe that some of the people in power around the world are actually lizards in a human skin suit, it's this guy. He emanates evil.
Ultimately, I have trouble believing he will go through with it. The man is partisan to the core.
This is all posturing. Trump will get away with it like he always does. Im convinced he would get away with murder!
OK. But never in modern times has the GOP been as divided as now. It's about to face internal civil war to a degree unprecedented in modern times . I also think that the American public has been shocked by recent events and the fragility of their democratic system, and somewhat traumatised by 4 years of Trump, including the ongoing effects of his Covid-19 mismanagement. It will take a long-time for the GOP to rebuild trust.
Moreover, there are the continuing demographic trends, mostly favouring the Dems.
I agree that the Dems choice of Presidential candidate for 2024 and 2028 will of course have a huge impact on how things turn out.
He’s already gotten what he needs from Trump - 3 SCOTUS judges and tax cuts. He doesn’t need him any more.
Pretty sure I posted on here waaaaaay back towards the beginning of this nightmare that McConnell's tolerance of Trump would last right up to the moment he calculated he didn't need him. And that moment has arrived, this is actually an opportunity.
Chris Hayes put it well, can't remember the original commentator, but basically what McConnell said last week confirming Biden wasn't that fair and free elections are important, it was that the cheating Trump did was so stupid that it wasn't worth trying to support, and it was practically a wink toward cheating better, in a way that makes it through courts (see gerrymandering, voter-disenfranchisement etc). He was more just disdainful that the efforts to subvert democracy were so amateur.
I'm convinced he's going to impeach Trump because he sees it as the chance to get back to GOP doing what it does: ensuring old white America shapes the country for old white Americans, using the racist system to disproportionately benefit old white Americans. But do it quietly and in such a way that it just happens without headlines and protests.
Chris Hayes put it well, can't remember the original commentator, but basically what McConnell said last week confirming Biden wasn't that fair and free elections are important, it was that the cheating Trump did was so stupid that it wasn't worth trying to support, and it was practically a wink toward cheating better, in a way that makes it through courts (see gerrymandering, voter-disenfranchisement etc). He was more just disdainful that the efforts to subvert democracy were so amateur.
I'm convinced he's going to impeach Trump because he sees it as the chance to get back to GOP doing what it does: ensuring old white America shapes the country for old white Americans, using the racist system to disproportionately benefit old white Americans. But do it quietly and in such a way that it just happens without headlines and protests.
He also knows that a GOP aligned with Trump is a GOP that lost all 3 chambers and would likely lose all 3 chambers by a greater margin in 2 and 4 years.
Reagan,Reagan,Papa Bush
What a refreshing change for the world it is to no longer have the several-times-daily bombardment of tweeted lies and other crap from Trump.
I've been having a great time on my right wing Dutch forum asking people why they're so upset Twitter has so much power.
Usually they all applaud Trump for this record level of regulation cuts. No more red tape for honest capitalist entrepeneurs who are realizing their American dream. No more big government. A baker should be able to deny service to a gay couple, because that is their God given right as a business owner. So why is this different?
The first argument is usually FREEDUM OF SPEECH. Yes, that's between the government and its people and while Jack and Mark are very rich, they're neither a nation nor a government.
The second is usually, it should be classed as a utility company, because they have a lot of power! Ok, but they're not and this effectively means you want more government control. So you are a bit of a socialist? I voted for the Socialist party in the last election, welcome aboard comrade! (this angers them greatly)
After that it's usually, stuff like you brainwashed MSM communist traitor, tell me where you live and you can say it to my face.
I usually end it with Facts don't care about your feelings.
I'm so edgy, I know.
As I'm not that versed in American politics, I'd like to know, a libertarian should be in support of Twitter having absolute control of who says what on their platform right?
Usually they all applaud Trump for this record level of regulation cuts. No more red tape for honest capitalist entrepeneurs who are realizing their American dream. No more big government. A baker should be able to deny service to a gay couple, because that is their God given right as a business owner. So why is this different?
The first argument is usually FREEDUM OF SPEECH. Yes, that's between the government and its people and while Jack and Mark are very rich, they're neither a nation nor a government.
The second is usually, it should be classed as a utility company, because they have a lot of power! Ok, but they're not and this effectively means you want more government control. So you are a bit of a socialist? I voted for the Socialist party in the last election, welcome aboard comrade! (this angers them greatly)
After that it's usually, stuff like you brainwashed MSM communist traitor, tell me where you live and you can say it to my face.
I usually end it with Facts don't care about your feelings.
I'm so edgy, I know.
As I'm not that versed in American politics, I'd like to know, a libertarian should be in support of Twitter having absolute control of who says what on their platform right?
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