The Trump Presidency | Biden Inaugurated

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MTF said:
The sequence of events for most countries goes like this:

I. First the creditors (market) start to doubt the future ability to pay of the government, and therefore the rates on rolling debt go up. At this point to cover the additional interest expense the government must either raise taxes or decrease expenditures elsewhere. Or as often happens, they do neither and the snowball starts increasing.

II. The size of the cuts required to right-size the out-of-control budget becomes politically impossible to achieve. At this point if the country has debt issued in non-domestic currency (Greece) they either need the IMF to bail them out, or they're going to default and be unable to borrow for a long time (and the companies in the country will probably also face challenges). The default also probably causes significant losses to domestic investors and possibly the banks.

III. If all of debt is in domestic currency, here is where you usually get what becomes the only politically feasible solution: the treasury issues more money to pay for the debt. Might sound clever, but this causes rising inflation (i.e. the government is taking wealth from anyone who has currency). This is another snowball that usually starts at inflation a bit higher than before, but soon spirals into 100% a year, 1000% a year. The currency also devalues by similar proportions. Although inflation would seem most detrimental to those who hold the most wealth, keep in mind that real assets retain their value well, capital is quickly moved abroad and into other currencies, and even the domestic banking system soon adapts to where its main service provided is inflation protection (see Brazil 1980s). The people most affected are those that most use paper currency vs the banking system: poorer people.


In summary, although the US and other developed countries with high debt aren't even yet at step I (everyone thinks their ability to pay is fine), there would be some level at which this would start to be questioned (and in my mind fundamentally it is developing countries that can justify running public sector deficits due to investments, developed countries have no reason for doing so for as long as they have). And you will pay eventually, hopefully with higher taxes in the future, but most likely via inflation.
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Cheers for this @MTF. Makes it a lot easier to understand.
 
matherto said:
Consistently voting against their self interest, openly condoning Trump and his cabinets actions, blinded by patriotism and religion meaning they're extremely easily led, intolerant (yeah I'm aware of the irony of this) Thick as pigshit.

Find me decent people that vote republican and I'll listen.
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yeh thats definitely all Republicans :wenger:


Consistently voting against their self interest
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how do you even know what is someones self interest and that they are voting against it. further more people shouldnt vote on their self interest they should vote whats good for the nation.

openly condoning Trump
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yes they like him , they like what hes says and it resonates with them. Bernie voters that wanted Socialis did the same as did Hillary voters that knew she was as crooked as a fish hook .

blinded by patriotism
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So thats a bad thing now? loving your country and voting a way you thin it should be headed is now thick?

religion meaning they're extremely easily led
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As are democrats. Just slap some self awareness or self conscience tag on the biggest evil in the world and a dem will latch on to it like white on rice. Just pretend you are "woke" or that you are for {put a monority group here} rights and they will flock you like flies to pig shit.

intolerant (yeah I'm aware of the irony of this)
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you are being intolerant as you have already figured out. Dems are intolerant of anyone that doesnt think like them and start to call the deplorable and uneducated unlike their pompous self righteous self


Find me decent people that vote republican and I'll listen
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You need to become decent in your own self.
 


Bernie speaks the truth!

Also, yet more corruption and sleeve from one of the biggest cnuts in the cabinet.



And another Republican with balls!

 
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ChaddyP said:
Jesus .. It's just one shitstorm after another
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Especially after they made such a massive meal out of denying the obvious. Cohen is almost certainly only doing this to protect Trump from the possibility of having violated federal elections laws by using funds to pay off a mistress.
 
Raoul said:
Especially after they made such a massive meal out of denying the obvious. Cohen is almost certainly only doing this to protect Trump from the possibility of having violated federal elections laws by using funds to pay off a mistress.
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Which I would imagine everyone aside from his blind supporters can see he definitely did
 
Call me a cynic, but I doubt this latest scandal will be of any consequence at all. Remember all the outrage over Bill Clinton? I guess the difference is, people would be more surprised if Trump didn't pay women to have sex with him.

Smooth player Donald just grabs em by the pussy like the big man he is. Does have to pay 130k first, lest they run away in terror.
 
Raoul said:
Especially after they made such a massive meal out of denying the obvious. Cohen is almost certainly only doing this to protect Trump from the possibility of having violated federal elections laws by using funds to pay off a mistress.
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Well he'll say he only paid her because his campaign would be harmed if he didn't, so it's a justifiable expense.
 
Raulduke said:
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Hopefully Gowdy indeed feels released from the shackles of party loyalty and this isn't just a charade. While they re at it though - how about asking them about Kushner and all the others who shouldn't be in proximity of any type of classified material? My only theory other than the party over country stopping them from ever truly going after that is that some have been told the judicial hammer will come down on that in the not too distant future.
 
Raoul said:
Especially after they made such a massive meal out of denying the obvious. Cohen is almost certainly only doing this to protect Trump from the possibility of having violated federal elections laws by using funds to pay off a mistress.
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Taking one for the team. I know the vast amount of politicians in Washington are crooked but the way this info is just out in the open like this is extraordinary
 
Day 2.14.2018 of Through The Looking Glass:

POTUS fans relieved that his lawyer used his own funds for hush money on a porn star POTUS had an affair with after the birth of his son instead of using campaign funds which might’ve been a problem.
 
Raoul said:
Especially after they made such a massive meal out of denying the obvious. Cohen is almost certainly only doing this to protect Trump from the possibility of having violated federal elections laws by using funds to pay off a mistress.
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A proper investigation would reveal that he didn't really use his own money.
 
We've got another scandal on our hands. Its being reported Shulkin's chief of staff doctored an email so they could get approval for taxpayer funded flights for Shulkin's wife.
 
Redplane said:
Hopefully Gowdy indeed feels released from the shackles of party loyalty and this isn't just a charade. While they re at it though - how about asking them about Kushner and all the others who shouldn't be in proximity of any type of classified material? My only theory other than the party over country stopping them from ever truly going after that is that some have been told the judicial hammer will come down on that in the not too distant future.
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Gowdy is a fecking hack. Expect them to come back with a complete exoneration. Unless Trump really is done with Kelly as rumored in which case who knows. I’m damn sure the truth will be very much a secondary consideration though.
 
Dems are useless. Once again Republicans screws them and they gladly bend over.
 
It's good to see that Stormy Daniels story isn't going away. It's probably one of the least consequential things he's done but it certainly has the most potential for easy-to-understand scandal. Hopefully she spills it all out now.
 
fishfingers15 said:
What is an acceptable resolution for this immigration deal to all of you? Saving DACA people? Building a wall? Or just keep saying no to Trump?
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A comprehensive immigration plan. That means a bunch of adults in a room trying to come up with a more modern way of dealing with immigration. Unfortunately, this would never happen anytime soon as Congress is non-functional.

Building a wall is stupid. The cost benefit analysis of that project is clearly a failure. Too bad most of his supporters don't care about these things.
Allowing recipients of DACA a path to citizenship within 5 years providing that they're educated.
Making it easier for smart and talented people to immigrate.
Fixing the H1-B visa so that other countries have a fair chance rather than Asians and Indians.
Conditional work permits for anyone who studies in the US up to Masters degree level providing that their degree program is one that can add value. It's stupid that the US educates brilliant people then allow them to leave and compete with the US.
Fixing the entry and exit system. Most illegal immigrants are VISA overstays. It's costs more to hunt them down than to ensure people leave when they're supposed to.
 
shabadu84 said:
It's good to see that Stormy Daniels story isn't going away. It's probably one of the least consequential things he's done but it certainly has the most potential for easy-to-understand scandal. Hopefully she spills it all out now.
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It seems someone inconsequential, but when you frame it within the context of the MeToo movement and Trump's other accusers, its just another thing that will turn women voters away from him.
 
Il Prete Rosso said:
A comprehensive immigration plan. That means a bunch of adults in a room trying to come up with a more modern way of dealing with immigration. Unfortunately, this would never happen anytime soon as Congress is non-functional.

Building a wall is stupid. The cost benefit analysis of that project is clearly a failure. Too bad most of his supporters don't care about these things.
Allowing recipients of DACA a path to citizenship within 5 years providing that they're educated.
Making it easier for smart and talented people to immigrate.
Fixing the H1-B visa so that other countries have a fair chance rather than Asians and Indians.
Conditional work permits for anyone who studies in the US up to Masters degree level providing that their degree program is one that can add value. It's stupid that the US educates brilliant people then allow them to leave and compete with the US.
Fixing the entry and exit system. Most illegal immigrants are VISA overstays. It's costs more to hunt them down than to ensure people leave when they're supposed to.
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Ok, how about a realistic version of what everyone thinks is an acceptable deal? This is a wish list of liberals.
 
Raoul said:
It seems someone inconsequential, but when you frame it within the context of the MeToo movement and Trump's other accusers, its just another thing that will turn women voters away from him.
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I don't think there has been any hint of coercion in this story?
 
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