The Manchester Title Race

Exactly, the CUSHION is 2 points. That's our margin of error. One late penalty, one dodgy call and so forth.

That's what makes today so painful. I can't understand the players' attitudes. Lethargic, unmotivated and weak.
 
With two home games for us before the Derby the chances are the gap will be at least five points.
 
With just one game a week for the rest of the season I think we'll be fine. Scholes still has that 100% record from all games he has started.
 
City's next four games are all potential dropped points. Three away and a game against United. They literally need to win the next five games to have a shot IMO.
 
I'd say 3 of them are, one of their away games is against Wolves who frankly are a god awful team at the moment. Think even the Scousers have beaten them recently.
 
Really can't put a fine enough point on how important GD has become. We're a defeat at City and a draw at Sunderland away from peril.

We have two home games next, City two away. I see 6 points for both sides, meaning the Derby is going to be super charged - we have infused that game with a whole new level of importance with the Wigan performance.

The long and short is that we need GD as insurance. We need to hammer Villa.
 
Cant understand the negativity around here. will be very very surprised if City won the 4 other games they have other than us. They've been poor away from home all season. We just need to make sure we beat Villa next game. one game at a time.
 
Varun_Utd said:
Cant understand the negativity around here. will be very very surprised if City won the 4 other games they have other than us. They've been poor away from home all season. We just need to make sure we beat Villa next game. one game at a time.
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It's funny how quickly momentum can shift. We don't know how City will react but the worry has to be that they got a bit of their swagger back yesterday and they'll be buoyed by an unexpected reprieve.

Put it like this, I don't think we can rely on City dropping any more points this season. If they do, it's a bonus. But we have to operate under the theory that they'll get 15 more points this season.
 
Feed Me said:
It's funny how quickly momentum can shift. We don't know how City will react but the worry has to be that they got a bit of their swagger back yesterday and they'll be buoyed by an unexpected reprieve.

Put it like this, I don't think we can rely on City dropping any more points this season. If they do, it's a bonus. But we have to operate under the theory that they'll get 15 more points this season.
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Yeah I agree with all of that. Its frustrating when people point at City dropping more points as the reason we'll win the title. We can't be relying on favours here. Its not beyond the realm of possibilities that they win almost all of their remaining games. Maybe a draw or two away from home, but then again we're more than capable of doing the same.

Still in pole position though and there's no need for any negativity. But its the blind optimism that gets me.
 
There is precedent.

In 07/08 we had a comfortable looking lead that was cut down as we lost away at Chelsea. That caused the title race to concertina, meaning we had no margin for error against WHU at home and Wigan away in our final two games.

If we lose against City, we're looking at the same scenario. Must win the final two - Swansea at home (shouldn't be a problem, their form has tailed off badly) and Sunderland away (hmmm, not ideal).

And that's assuming we take maximum points against Villa and Everton at home - both of whom are obdurate opponents, if nothing else.

Not sure why we were so poor against Wigan, but given how tight things have become, it's really frustrating.
 
mjs020294 said:
City's next four games are all potential dropped points. Three away and a game against United. They literally need to win the next five games to have a shot IMO.
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Away to Norwich and Newcastle will be tricky for them. I think they'll beat Wolves away, then of course they have us to visit the council house.
 
Win our next two and we'll be ok I reckon. Everton wont be easy as they are in good form and Villa will park the bus I reckon. Confident City will drop points
 
MUFCgal said:
Away to Norwich and Newcastle will be tricky for them. I think they'll beat Wolves away, then of course they have us to visit the council house.
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I've watched a lot of Wolves this season and, believe me, they're gone. Terry Connor is coming out with the dreaded cliches after every defeat: 'if we play with that level of commitment, I can't ask for any more.' They truly are a shambles now and the question is not will City win, it's by how many?

Norwich away will be tricky, but I've a feeling City are really going to have the bit between their teeth now. Most realistic chance of dropped points for them is Newcastle away.
 
MUFCgal said:
Away to Norwich and Newcastle will be tricky for them. I think they'll beat Wolves away, then of course they have us to visit the council house.
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the thing is....most people seem to have come to the conclusion we will lose against city. I'm not one of those. Fergie is brilliant in these do or die situations and we did beat them there already this season, so I'm quite optimistic about us at least drawing there.
 
togg said:
the thing is....most people seem to have come to the conclusion we will lose against city. I'm not one of those. Fergie is brilliant in these do or die situations and we did beat them there already this season, so I'm quite optimistic about us at least drawing there.
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In my experience, the team that sets up for a draw is at a disadvantage to the team that sets up for the win. That's why City are down as faves for that game.
 
Feed Me said:
In my experience, the team that sets up for a draw is at a disadvantage to the team that sets up for the win. That's why City are down as faves for that game.
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Ferguson won't set up for a draw at all, we all know that. There's that 6-1 incentive for a start. I just have a feeling we are going to beat them...
 
We're averaging 2.39 points per game now, would come to 91 points if we continue at that rate, which would leave us tied for most points in a season for United, matching the 1999-2000 season. With 15 points to play for the best we can do is 94, which would leave us 1 shy of Chelsea's record, to stand for at least another season.

Saves a lot of trouble explaining to people how this could have been the best EPL team in history.
 
gooDevil said:
We're averaging 2.39 points per game now, would come to 91 points if we continue at that rate, which would leave us tied for most points in a season for United, matching the 1999-2000 season. With 15 points to play for the best we can do is 94, which would leave us 1 shy of Chelsea's record, to stand for at least another season.

Saves a lot of trouble explaining to people how this could have been the best EPL team in history.
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We could have got 100 points and this wouldn't have been the best team in PL history.

I'm not on the 'this is an average United team' bandwagon, but this is clearly not the best in 20 years.
 
A month ago everyone said we're in a fantastic position if we're 4 points ahead by the derby. So when did balls suddenly fall off?
 
togg said:
the thing is....most people seem to have come to the conclusion we will lose against city. I'm not one of those. Fergie is brilliant in these do or die situations and we did beat them there already this season, so I'm quite optimistic about us at least drawing there.
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Nope.. That's not the conclusion.. The conclusion is that it's a 50/50 game..

Two days ago the title race was well out of City's hands.. No matter what they do (even in their game against us) it won't matter for them unless WE drop a lot of points..

Now, suddenly, it doesn't look in the bag anymore.. We only have a cushion of 2 points now, before it becomes a 50/50 race again (Not saying City will win it, but it becomes 50/50 again).

We are feeling bad (I'm for one), because we are giving City a lifeline.. We should have killed them off by beating Wigan.. Now the race is still out of City's hands (and firmly in our hands), but if we drop two more points we'll bring their hopes to life again, as the title race will be again in their hands too, as much as it is in our hands.. (Being in one's hands = win all of your games you win the title, regardless of the other results)

Also, nobody here is saying we lost the title race, or our position is bad now.. Obviously everybody would like to be in our position now rather than City's, BUT, for those who were quick to declare the race over (prematurely) and even mocked the people who said it's not over yet, our loss to Wigan has shown that they were wrong. And, even though we still have the advantage in the title race, I'll be more nervous now watching our next games..
 
We do this like literally every single season. I'm concerned taht Norwich is now an easier game for City than it could have been, but if we win our next 2 home games, and assume we'll beat Swansea, we should be ok.

Let's bear in mind if we and city both win our games until the derby we will also have a lot riding on the game...plus a win and we'd win the title there
 
I'm normally quite pessimistic but it's laughable that people are describing thinking we'll win the league as blind optimism or handing City maximum points. Even if we do lose to City why are they more likely to win at Newcastle than we are to win at Sunderland?
 
Beachryan said:
Exactly, the CUSHION is 2 points. That's our margin of error. One late penalty, one dodgy call and so forth.

That's what makes today so painful. I can't understand the players' attitudes. Lethargic, unmotivated and weak.
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The cushion is not two points. We can afford to draw the derby. City can't.
 
acnumber9 said:
The cushion is not two points. We can afford to draw the derby. City can't.
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I agree but only getting to the derby 5 points clear would ensure this. The next 2 games are huge. Thankfully they're both at home, but Everton will be tough.
 
Number7 said:
I agree but only getting to the derby 5 points clear would ensure this. The next 2 games are huge. Thankfully they're both at home, but Everton will be tough.
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Go into with any gap and we can afford to draw. It would still be in Utd's hands.
 
acnumber9 said:
Go into with any gap and we can afford to draw. It would still be in Utd's hands.
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Sunderland away on the last day of the season suggests not. Still in our hands maybe, but it's not the ground you want to go to needing a win.
 
All the talk is about us having no Margin for error, but it's even more so for City. The pressure is still on them they not only HAVE to beat us IMO, they HAVE to win there last 5. Dropping points in any of those games will once again mean we have to drop points in 3 of the last 5.
 
Win the next two and I think we'll be alright. It means we can go into the City game with a minimum of five points clear, no matter what the result is there, then we should definitely be able to take four points from our last two. And that's on the proviso that City win all their games.
 
Number7 said:
Sunderland away on the last day of the season suggests not. Still in our hands maybe, but it's not the ground you want to go to needing a win.
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No, but Newcastle isn't where City particularly want to go either.
 
acnumber9 said:
No, but Newcastle isn't where City particularly want to go either.
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They play before us that day, and the incentive would be to go above us. I'm being overly negative perhaps, but this will be a fight to the finish.
 
Feed Me said:
It's funny how quickly momentum can shift. We don't know how City will react but the worry has to be that they got a bit of their swagger back yesterday and they'll be buoyed by an unexpected reprieve.

Put it like this, I don't think we can rely on City dropping any more points this season. If they do, it's a bonus. But we have to operate under the theory that they'll get 15 more points this season.
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Am not saying we're dependent on them dropping points at all, just pointing out that given their away form, its unlikely they'l win all their games.

Even if they do, we still have to play them and given the 6-1, we'l be up for it. Am just positive about our chances, yes, the blip yesterday makes things a bit difficult but we've always done things that way. 5 points ahead with 5 games to go, i'd take it every season.
 
Number7 said:
They play before us that day, and the incentive would be to go above us. I'm being overly negative perhaps, but this will be a fight to the finish.
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And Utd's incentive at Sunderland would be to win the league. It's not ideal but when the season started I'd have taken a one off game at Sunderland for the title. Hopefully we won't need it.
 
This time last week we were five clear with 7 games to go. Bookies were paying out. What a difference a week makes. City have managed to claw back 0 points!
 
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