@Invictus I enjoyed reading your posts, so cheers.
Re: Personality - The one thing I disagree about is your assessment of LVG merely toeing the company line. Whilst I agree that he is hardly going to come out and openly criticise Giggs or another staff member (he is not Mourinho, after all
), I dont think he felt obliged to actually name Giggs as his most likely successor when asked. A generic "we dont know what the future holds" "I am sure the club will pick someone suitable" or any other standard line would have sufficed, if he didnt think Giggs was at all up to the task. As I said before, I do not think the club would have such apparent confidence in him [Giggs] if internally they didnt think he was at least a realistic option worthy of consideration.
Re: Ancelotti - I wont claim to be as knowledgeable as you on his career to-date, and I agree that he seems like one of the "good guys" in football who I would likely be quite happy with, if he took over from LVG. The fact remains that he hasnt really taken on a task like the United job, and so despite his experience with other elite clubs you would still have to consider him (and most others) as a gamble. Without nitpicking too much, regarding youth development I think it is fair to say that at both PSG and Real Madrid, there were certain pressures on him (and their other managers) from the president/boardroom when it comes to fielding certain players etc.
Nonetheless, Ancelotti probably represents one of the better options for us, although timeframe comes into it, as I am sure he will not still be out of a job in 12 months time.
If LVG retires or is sacked by the end of this season/next summer (and in this circumstance I reiterate that in my opinion it would probably be a year or two too soon for Giggs to take the reins) then I could see Ancelotti being one of the main contenders. If LVG sees out his contract however, then I think it may well be a case that Ancelotti simply isnt going to be available when we are looking for our next manager. I think we can agree that how LVG fares in the remainder of his tenure, and
when we are looking to replace him, will have a substantial impact on who the successor should be.
Re: Guardiola - I find Pep to be quite a fascinating case study in these sorts of discussions, I must say. Still in your closing paragraph about him I was surprised that you wrote that and then said
"This is why I dont see a Giggs comparison" because I felt there were a number of parallels between the two, based on what you wrote. Whilst Giggs has not travelled the world and sought out exotic tactics, he has worked extensively under two highly successful managers (and Moyes) and has appeared to progress through his coaching badges pretty easily. In many ways, as you said Pep was "Johan's man", I think the same can be said of Giggs being "Fergie's man" and perhaps even LVG's. Just as Pep created his own style which he was then able to implement at Barca, I think part of the appeal of Giggs is his potential ability to take LVG's system, and modify it to what he knows Manchester United fans want. Essentially, 'the philosophy' but tailored, tweaked and evolved to United, to the PL, to the demands and expectations of the fans. This is how Giggs' extensive knowledge and experience of the club and the league can provide a tangible benefit, as manager.
You state that other managers have already achieved the criteria I spoke of at the end of my post, but I disagree. "Special snowflakes" arguments aside, the United job is different to a lot of the big clubs I think. Not because we are such a special and different club, but simply because the structure, the hierarchy and the expectations are different. First of all, most of the managers listed have either no, or very little experience in the PL. The English league is in my opinion more competitive than most others around Europe, when talking about strength in depth. To bring out one of the well used clichés - there are no easy games. Every weekend we see more upsets and shocks. This very point has been used as an argument against Giggs, on the grounds that the stakes are higher when gambling, because whilst Barca could probably finish 3rd in La Liga with a poor manager, United under Moyes ended up 7th. However the flipside of this argument is that we have seen high profile coaches struggle to adapt to the English game, and whilst it may still be a bit early and harsh to say it - LVG can perhaps be counted among them.
Similarly, whilst Chelsea, City and Madrid may encourage mass spending and minimal focus on youth, at United the emphasis has traditionally been a bit different. I am not naive enough to think that we can go on the same way we did in SAFs early years, but nor do I think the Glazers are prepared to go toe-to-toe with the aforementioned clubs for sheer spending, in the longer term.
I mentioned in my previous post other factors such as the level of control given to the manager, the perhaps longer-term appointments that we as a club would lean towards, and I think the combination of these factors means that it cannot be taken for granted that even a Guardiola or Klopp would automatically flourish. This takes me back to the point I made in the OP - any managerial appointment is a gamble, there is no "safe option" for anything more than short term success in my opinion (ie take on Mourinho for a couple of years), and that short term success model has not proven to be feasible for a club in the longer term.
