Summer Transfer Budget?

crossy1686 said:
God help us if it's not £500m+
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Time for jim to get his cheque book out and try and get the cnuts to cough up some cash. I know it's unlikely but surely that's better than getting relegated and probably having to spend more.

This is why we're in such a mess now because they should've invested as we went along and serviced the debt and facilities but now everything has caught up with the way they've ran us and it's hit all at once. Now we need a couple of billion just to get back to where we were when Fergie left.
They won't like it but I can't see any other way to get out of this hole they've dug for us unless they sell more shares to jim or someone else.
 
Big Ben Foster said:
Yup, and then there's the enormous elephant in the room of a large portion of the club debt coming due in 2027, meaning it will have to be either paid off (unlikely) or refinanced at significantly higher rates.
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How much needs to be paid off in 2027?
 
Big Ben Foster said:
IMO cash flow is going to be a much bigger problem than PSR
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Cash flow can probably be solved (equity injection, reduce / pause dividends, cost cutting etc). Ineos have deep pockets and £2bn cash on their B/S so we'd probably be OK.

Think it's a mix of both though hampering the club. We are struggling to sell because we not only need to get over the issue of inflated wages, we clearly have major P&L hurdles from a PSR perspective for offloading inflated assets (Antony, Casemiro, Sancho etc etc).

From a cash flow perspective, even getting £10m for Casemiro upfront probably gives us £20m in annual cash savings, but we'd take that non-cash P&L loss and who knows what that would do for PSR.

Right now is probably the most precarious point, but if we can get the likes of Casemior, Sancho, Antony etc off the books and that amortisation coming down, hopefully should give us a lot of leeway going forward.
 
Redjazz said:
Huh? Elaborate for me how making a loss of 120m is equivalent to having a 120m to spend. If this Swissramble fella know his onions, he's probably not in the business of transfer speculation, though I suspect that's probably lost on you and quite a few more on here.
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My post said we would have approximately 120m available. You responded with we can make a loss of 120m and stay within PSR which doesn't change the fact that our budget will be around 120m.

No one ever claimed they were the same thing, that's a strawman. They asked what our budget would be.
 
Big Andy said:
Ticket prices will go up, memberships will go up.

They’ll milk the fans for all they’re worth.
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Should sign a petition to make INEOS pay for the mistakes they made before asking fans to foot higher ticket prices.
The burden should be shared by all, not only be the fans .
 
Valencia Shin Crosses said:
Gyokeres, Cunha, Quenda, and a sneaky young mobile passer for the midfield and I’d be on cloud 9 honestly. That significantly transforms our team
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Actually we have lots to learn from Palace too.
They signed Mateta on an 8 month loan for €3 million and made it permanent for €15 million .
We would probably be in the Top 4 now if we had Henderson, Eze n Mateta in the team.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
So this is based on some…optimistic assumptions:
  • Rashford does well enough for Villa to trigger his buy clause
  • Sancho will help Chelsea get to a position where we get ~30m
  • Antony does well for Betis (was POTM on his debut so fingers crossed) so they make a bid
  • Casemiro is sold
  • Malacia apparently has a buy option for PSV
Based on the above we should have ~£100m from transfer sales. Then factor in the potential >£1m per week (FFS) wages and we should have plenty of PSR room for transfers.

Does anyone have the requisite accounting knowledge to figure any decent numbers up?
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It will likely be in the ~£100M net range. That's before any sales; any sales you can add to the total net.
 
eire-red said:
Cash flow can probably be solved (equity injection, reduce / pause dividends, cost cutting etc). Ineos have deep pockets and £2bn cash on their B/S so we'd probably be OK.

Think it's a mix of both though hampering the club. We are struggling to sell because we not only need to get over the issue of inflated wages, we clearly have major P&L hurdles from a PSR perspective for offloading inflated assets (Antony, Casemiro, Sancho etc etc).

From a cash flow perspective, even getting £10m for Casemiro upfront probably gives us £20m in annual cash savings, but we'd take that non-cash P&L loss and who knows what that would do for PSR.

Right now is probably the most precarious point, but if we can get the likes of Casemior, Sancho, Antony etc off the books and that amortisation coming down, hopefully should give us a lot of leeway going forward.
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This. Some people need to wake up and smell the coffee.

Even if we weren’t cash strapped / constrained by PSR, we’re a mid-table team with a long way to go before we get back to where many think we should be.

Whilst we’re also a big club, with amazing heritage and supporters, there are better options in the short term, at ‘smaller’ clubs, for the best players.

We’re a long term project now, with no guarantees
 
eire-red said:
Cash flow can probably be solved (equity injection, reduce / pause dividends, cost cutting etc). Ineos have deep pockets and £2bn cash on their B/S so we'd probably be OK.
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That's where the minority ownership issue comes into play.

A capital injection from INEOS is extremely unlikely unless the Glazers agree to dilute their stake. They've shown somewhat of a willingness to do that for infrastructure spending (the pre-agreed £300m injection), but for transfers? Highly doubtful.

As for pausing dividends and cutting costs, that's already been done, so the cupboard is bare.
 
FlawlessVictory88 said:
My post said we would have approximately 120m available. You responded with we can make a loss of 120m and stay within PSR which doesn't change the fact that our budget will be around 120m.

No one ever claimed they were the same thing, that's a strawman. They asked what our budget would be.
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Actually you claimed that according to this swissramble fella, we have 120m to spend. I stated that- without knowing him from adam- he probably inferred we could lose up to 120m and remain compliant. how on earth does any of that translate to a budget of 120m? Because I am pretty sure he would not have made such a claim.
 
Ineos are not injecting any of their own money into the club until they own more equity.

Therefore we have no money, PSR is virtually irrelevant.
 
Here’s a question, let’s say we do generate significant sales. Would you accept less signings, but the debt gets paid off/partially paid?

I personally think the interest on the Glazers debt is killing us.
 
5 player in minimum that are straight into the starting 11 or close enough to it.

GK Sticker No10/winger RWB an absolute must
 
Big Ben Foster said:
That's where the minority ownership issue comes into play.

A capital injection from INEOS is extremely unlikely unless the Glazers agree to dilute their stake. They've shown somewhat of a willingness to do that for infrastructure spending (the pre-agreed £300m injection), but for transfers? Highly doubtful.

As for pausing dividends and cutting costs, that's already been done, so the cupboard is bare.
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In fairness, the cost transformation program is still early days so still probably a cash outflow in terms of severance costs etc.. likely we're yet to see the run-rate impact of that.

Fair point re dividends, haven't paid any or repurchased any shares for the past couple fiscal years, so we can't blame our fairly anemic cash flow on that.

If I look at this in highly simplistic terms, club needs to deleverage and reduce costs significantly. We're hampered from offloading players due to PSR and we don't generate enough free cash flow to fund anywhere near enough investment in the first team to get back to where we need to be. This is compounded by lack of CL revenue and lower revenue from the PL.

You could take a view and say either the Glazers dilute now and we get some much needed capital injection into the club to pay down debt, improve cash flow and fund our infrastructure investment, or the club could be looking at a debt restructuring when the notes and RCF come due for refinance in 27. Who knows what the equity could be worth then.
 
Oo0AahCantona said:
Ineos are not injecting any of their own money into the club until they own more equity.

Therefore we have no money, PSR is virtually irrelevant.
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Think it is still relevant because we clearly have significant hurdles from a P&L perspective in terms of booking a loss if we sold the likes of Antony, Casemiro etc, further impacting the PSR.

Yet from a cash perspective, we could probably recoup a decent chunk to pay down fees due, outstanding debt etc.. while obviously taking out a big cost on wages which improves both the P&L and cash flow.
 
£25ish mill in the kitty for Sancho due in the summer. Plus the wages covered for players out on loan. Other high earners contracts expiring at the end of June. Hopefully the loaned players do enough to retain some transfer value for summer moves.

Budgets going to be tight. This summer. Especially if we don’t get European football.
 
While I liked that we did not get into panic buying in the January window, we still will have a problem in the summer if we need to sell before we can buy. The pattern shows that clubs mostly leave it late to pursue our players in the hope that they get a discount late in the window, but we need the money early to get new signings in early for Amorim to work with in preseason.
 
RikRuud said:
£25ish mill in the kitty for Sancho due in the summer. Plus the wages covered for players out on loan. Other high earners contracts expiring at the end of June. Hopefully the loaned players do enough to retain some transfer value for summer moves.

Budgets going to be tight. This summer. Especially if we don’t get European football.
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We need to start selling players early in the summer window. The club should inform agents of Casemiro, Rashford, Antony, Zirkzee, Onana etc that we want them gone permanently by end of June. We need to be decisive in getting in players for Amorim to work with for preseason .
 
McTerminator said:
Here’s a question, let’s say we do generate significant sales. Would you accept less signings, but the debt gets paid off/partially paid?

I personally think the interest on the Glazers debt is killing us.
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It's killed us slowly over the last 15 years, death by a thousand cuts. Over a billion pounds into their pockets in dividends, not a penny used to buy the club and still hardly any dent in the total debt they lumped on us.
 
Just my guess but slightly under 100M + sales. And Gyökeres will be one of the signings with 60M+ fee. We really need to sell next summer.
 
redNATION said:
I’d be looking to shift Rashford, Zirkzee, Hjolund, Casemiro, Garnacho, Dalot, Malacia, Maguire, Onana, Mount. From that group surely we can raise 200-250m in top of potentially having 150m already allocated to budget. It would need to be a Chelsea like summer spending spree just targeting the best players we can to build a new 11 almost from scratch. It sounds extreme but I don’t think half way house approach of buying 2-3 players is going to cut it otherwise we’ll be in the same place next season. The squad needs a complete rebuild.
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Doubt there is time enough in a summer to offload that many. Certainly not at decent prices.

Don't think you have 150m to play with either in terms of cash flow.
 
spwd said:
How much needs to be paid off in 2027?
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The club needs to refinance something like 400m in 2027, which will be at much higher interest rates.

The Glazers are sticking round because they think there is more to come, a Super League or some significant increase in value. I don’t see either happening anytime soon so will they either cash out before that refinancing or at least give up a small amount of equity (as they did previously) to allow money to be pumped into the club.

Something has got to give over the next couple of years, maybe SJR takes over or refinances the 400m debt in return for equity but it’s not really sustainable for this to continue longer term.
 
If the Q1 2025 numbers are anything to go by, I don't actually see how United have much of a summer budget at all without addition outgoings (that is on top of Sancho and predicting the Eriksen, Lindelof and Evans all depart at the end of their contracts) - this is assuming as expected net interest payments continue to be high and there is a projected fall in revenue for the 2025/26 season as a result of no European football.

The PSR situation in a couple of seasons is going to be much worse once they lose the +£12m profit season in 2022/23, so either they gamble this summer and hope they are in a position to sell players and balance the books when it's crunch time or they'll be conservative and try and manage the situation ahead of time by only spending what they bring in - given how risk averse INEOS seem to be I'd imagine it'll be the latter approach.
 
I think 100-120m is our best case scenario if we don’t qualify to the CL by winning the EL. Stretch that to 160-180 if we do.

The assumption here is that there are multiple outgoings
 
Seems there's no choice but to activate buy back clauses, use free transfers etc. Which I'd be OK with to some extent.
 
And the disappointing summer transfer window pr is already being pushed out. Expect the bare minimum.
 
Kinsella said:
It’s hard to overstate how important winning the Europa League is.
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If we miss out on CL we lose £10m on the Adidas sponsorship next season, not to mention revenue losses from missing out on TV money, gate receipts, etc.
 
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