The CL is vital to any progress for this PSR bullshit. EL is a must for this club.
Summer Transfer Budget?
- Thread starter Jericholyte2
- Start date
Yeah 100%. It is really alarming for me, to see that some of those failed mindsets are still out there. I am really worried they carry on in our decision makers as well. If we aren't ready to face the consequences for years of bad decisions then I guess we deserve to be in this limbo for a while.
it will not be explained. That's about as much as you will get. You should look to the 2024 YE accounts to the notes about transactions after the reporting date. We sold 55m (net of costs) after reporting date. Residual book value of about 16m. Profit therefore in line with reported Q1 figure 2025.
I'm pretty sure it's no different. And the figure stacked up with sales of Elanga and Henderson the year before.
My guess would be that we didn't get as much as reported for Greenwood for one.
In the old days, when the Fergie had his spat with the horsemen, they insisted that the published accounts contained detailed notes on transfer amounts (when installments were due and how much), agents fees, termination bonuses, etc. All to embarrass Fergie whose son was an agent to quite a few of the players. The takeaway was that:
Reported transfer figures were inaccurate.
Agent fees are exorbitant and they too are included in the amortization cost as are other bits and bobs
Long serving players can get bonuses on leaving - maybe the case with McT
Agree with most of this.
It's the level of incompetence amongst the executive that's most shocking because it talks to just how appallingly run we've been and how systemic this was (if I seem fixated about organisations, executives, decision-making and governance, it's probably because I've lead a lot of turnaround style consultancy).
Picking-up on what others have been saying, the inside story of the Anthony deal has been exposed by The Athletic and we can be pretty confident about what happened. Sure, I get ETH wanted him, I the get panic following those first two defeats, and I get the neediness to show confidence in a new manager and make a statement, but there was never anything to suggest we were getting an emerging superstar, as I think Laurie Whitwell's piece said. We should have walked away from any sort of negotiation once it became clear what Ajax wanted. £40m was too much, double that was incredible, and bluntly, a well-run club, would have actively managed ETH's expectations and turned to alternatives (because well-run clubs do the right thing with planning and targeting players).
If anything, Casemiro was even worse. You could probably make a case - no pun - for getting him on a short-term deal, with a high wage offset by a small fee (at his peak he was a great player of course). You just don't do what we did. Almost everything about that transfer was a red flag. But we still went ahead.
Mount is the third one - taking us to a neat nearly ~£200m - and, again, everything points to ETH being the major influence. A well-run club would have looked at his last 12 months at Chelsea, seen that his best position is one where we actually had some strength, and said no to doing anything involving much of a fee for someone in the last year of his contract. This stuff is mind-boggling in terms of what happened.
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I'm a financial analyst so I thought it could be worthwhile to run the numbers on how our expected cost base will change next year given our changes. I have not assumed any profitable sales from PSR, but rather just analysed our on-going costs and how they will change. I finally assumed that with the new 5 year max amortisation rule, contract extension doesnt lead to longer amortisation of costs.
Transfer values are from Transfermarkt, and salaries from Capology, though I added in a 20% discount as we are not playing in the CL.
First of, I notice that our wages and amortisation are roughly equal. Hence, a £20m annual saving will likely give us a budget for a £50m player, with £10m annual salary.
What this shows is that we are likely to reduce our annual costs by £68m by guaranteed leavers and that Bruno's, Maguires, and Amad's original contracts were due to runout this year.
Nonetheless, we will likely loose out on around £50m in revenue if we dont get Europa League / CL next season so even with that reduction in cost, we would likely not have a major transfer budget available to us.
However, if we manage get rid of Casemiro, Rash, and Antony, we would reduce our annual costs with £130m, which would give us 80m in annual costs to add, which could mean ~£200m in transfer fees and ~£40m in wages! Other potential sales are Hojlund/Zirkzee which would reduce our costs by £15m/£11m annually respectively, and would be a wise business to do if we bring in a new striker.
In conclusion, if we manage to move on our deadwood, we could be in for a very busy summer. I have also not considered us selling any players for profit, which could further increase our pursing power.
Transfer values are from Transfermarkt, and salaries from Capology, though I added in a 20% discount as we are not playing in the CL.
First of, I notice that our wages and amortisation are roughly equal. Hence, a £20m annual saving will likely give us a budget for a £50m player, with £10m annual salary.
What this shows is that we are likely to reduce our annual costs by £68m by guaranteed leavers and that Bruno's, Maguires, and Amad's original contracts were due to runout this year.
Nonetheless, we will likely loose out on around £50m in revenue if we dont get Europa League / CL next season so even with that reduction in cost, we would likely not have a major transfer budget available to us.
However, if we manage get rid of Casemiro, Rash, and Antony, we would reduce our annual costs with £130m, which would give us 80m in annual costs to add, which could mean ~£200m in transfer fees and ~£40m in wages! Other potential sales are Hojlund/Zirkzee which would reduce our costs by £15m/£11m annually respectively, and would be a wise business to do if we bring in a new striker.
In conclusion, if we manage to move on our deadwood, we could be in for a very busy summer. I have also not considered us selling any players for profit, which could further increase our pursing power.
| Reason | Player |
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| Cumulative | |||||||
| Bruno | 12.5 | 9.8 | 22.3 | 12.5 | - | 12.5 | (9.8) | (9.8) | |||||||
| Maguire | 7.9 | 12.0 | 20.0 | 7.9 | - | 7.9 | (12.0) | (21.8) | |||||||
| Amad | 5.0 | 3.7 | 8.7 | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | (3.7) | (25.5) | |||||||
| Sancho | 10.4 | 14.1 | 24.5 | - | - | 10.4 | (24.5) | (50.0) | |||||||
| Several | 15.8 | - | - | - | - | - | (15.8) | (68.8) | |||||||
| Likely | Casemiro | 14.6 | 14.5 | 29.1 | - | - | - | (29.1) | (94.9) | |||||||
| Likely | Rashford | 12.5 | - | 12.5 | - | - | - | (12.5) | (107.3) | |||||||
| Potential | Antony | 8.3 | 15.8 | 24.1 | - | - | - | (24.1) | (131.4) | |||||||
| Total | Team | 157.7 | 156.3 | 314 | 96.1 | 86.4 | 166.8 | (131.4) |
So we have to win the Europa League or the FA Cup because we are not qualifying for Europe through the league!
The reality is even if we sell Rashford, Casemiro and Antony, plus release Eriksen and Lindelof, without European Football we can only spend Max of £75-100m.
The Debt of the club and the interest to service that debt has the made club Almost untenable. The Glazers are still here
and INEOS can’t pay the debt off with new rules prohibiting this unless they get given shares for doing so, something the Glazers would never agree to!
Dark Times, we just need to be much smarter with our recruitment and make sure we get the at least three elite players in this summer.
Which position should we go big on out of Striker and CM, personally I would say the first but interested to hear other people's views
Very nice analysis. Thank you.
No wonder, club are so desperate to get rid of Rash, Antony, and Casemiro.
This addresses the PSR issue but not the actual cash flow constraint, which is the real problem this coming summer
In my original post that you replied, I have allowed the sale fee of Sancho, Rashford, Casemiro, and etc as part of cash that we will use to try to balance the books and I have mentioned the fees we’re getting from sale won’t be used to boost our summer transfer budget. So what you said about seeing the long-term impact and INEOS is trying to balance the books is actually what I said in my post. And the figure that I came out is just estimation and what I think we will spend. What am I missing then?
1/3rd of what? 1/3rd of £550m? £183m.
And what was the figure that I think we will spend in this summer? £153m regardless if we sell Sancho, Rashford, Casemiro, and etc.
Indeed, and those sales would really not be raising 200-250m!!
I will reiterate some points because you do not appear to be comprehending what I've said:
- I don't think United can afford to spend much at all without selling players more players (that is players on top of Sancho already going + Eriksen, Lindelof and Evans all leaving)
- If they were to get rid of some players I would still expect spending to be lower than you will imagine - as an example I said Rashford, Antony, Malacia, Casemiro going in and bringing in around £110m in savings (transfer fees + wages), I would expect total spending to be closer to £185m than £550m.
- This was a pure ballpark figure, but the reason I had to outline this specifically is because all you did in your OP was take a number that would be saved in wages and times it by 5 and said '£27.5m back in wages means we can spend £137m in transfers)' which is not at all balancing the books, is not correct and shows a complete misunderstanding of basic financing principles.
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There obviously is because the clubs that spent a comparible amount in the past decade won the PL and UCL (Chelsea and City)
Also nobody said anything about being unlucky, we have been incompetent in the recruitment department for a while and have refused to pay attention to how football moved away from a manager that dictates everything to a DOF and recruitment team model.
We have tended to target players from top clubs who have already won it all, we have tended to sign players who don’t readliy fit into the team or meet the obvious team needs, we have tended to offer over the top wages to over compensate for being in a poor league position or not in the UCL. We have signed players we could have signed for free 6-12 months later, we have refused to sign players on free contracts who can improve the squad. We renew contracts of player who clearly have no future at the club, we do not extract maximum ROI when selling players.
No one is saying to throw money at the problem. Simply saying that the notion that spending money is the issue is clearly and verifiably wrong.
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not enough
I know you didn't consider PSR profit in your post. But if you did, would we actually have more to spend as Rashford would be 100% PSR profit?
Finding players around £40m a pop is key. Young players who might not be great but can become good players in a year or two. This LWB we just signed, Yoro, Robertson at Liverpool, Saliba at Arsenal, Bruno at Newcastle etc. The days of players costing close to £100m are done for us.
I always agree with this. Because I believe we need to sell and use the sale fees to balance some of the books. If you read the whole post of my OP, you should already realised that there is common thing between what I said and with what you said.
Incorrect, because the spending figure I estimated after sale is £153m. Therefore, The spending figure you expected (closer to £185m) is higher than the figure I estimated.
That’s not the only thing what all I wrote!You didn’t read the whole post! In that same my OP, I said something if we sell players like Casemiro, Rashford, and etc then we will use the selling transfer fees to pay off money that we owed (aka balancing the books). Therefore, I have take into account that for us to balance some of the books is by using the transfer fees what we can sell in the summer.
Based on these three points, it seems you have only read the part when I listed 5 players and £137.8m but you miss the part what I said afterwards in that same OP. You pretty much missed 77% in that OP.
Chelsea used the money to equal the advantage we had back in the day in terms of financial power and even if Chelsea spent a similar amount, I don't think anybody would label them as some sort of powerhouse or well run. City splashed the cash randomly in the beginning, then became rather reasonable and are now a team that isn't known to overspend. I see your points but I think, the parallels are pretty thin. City is the antidote of "being clueless in the market" while Chelsea falls into that category (probably a little less than us).
Agreed. But the issue with players is independent of that (in my eyes at least). You see the mindset when you look through the threads on here, people calling for Osimhen, Kvara, Davies. Thats obviously a "throw money at the problem" kind of approach - "we don't score many goals, bring in a player known for scoring goals". It doesn't make a difference if we had a DOF calling the shots or Ole or Mourinho, the issue was the missing plan. And without having a plan, we always opted for the most obvious solution. Without reflecting the general course and longterm implications of such decisions.
This is the core issue and thats what I mean with "being unlucky" - I think there are a lot of fans out there, we generally did the right thing in splashing the cash but our mistake was splashing it for the wrong players. And I think, that is really really wrong.
Agreed.
Ok, I get it. I wasn't proposing a "spend nothing" approach, just for the record, but something like a reasonable approach with not shopping at the luxury boutique as long as we have to wear those clothes in our daily mining jobs. And I think, this is where some are misguided. At this point, we have actually a tradition of fans seeming to think that only the very best players are good enough to help Manchester United. Thats why we have to go for the Pogbas, the Sanchos and Hojlunds (talent in his case) and look befuddled when it doesn't work out. I agree with your list, what we did wrong but I'd say the core problem wasn't identifying the wrong targets (the majority made sense) but the issue was overpaying for them. There is nothing wrong with having a shot with Antony. But there is nothing not wrong doing it for 80 million. I think, that is what rubbed me on your post. I think, we are pretty aligned overall, but I think, it is very important to define what actually went wrong: and thats not having some sort of plan and mindnumbingly overpaying in several occasions. Other issues "just" funnel into those.
It has to be striker because striker gives us goals. But we need to get both.
Ideally both but if I had to pick one then it's 100% a striker.
We probably could cope another season with Mainoo, Ugarte, Collyer and Fernandes as CM's. We absolutely can't cope with Zirkzee and Hojlund as strikers.
I do think we will sign both though as I think Eriksen and Casemiro with both leave freeing up substantial wages.
I think we will get a Striker, a CM and another winger / attacking midfielder.
I personally think this is irrelevant, the new ownership of late has been spending less efficiently than the previous regime, however under Ambramovic Chelsea were the most successful PL club of the past decade outside of City and were certainly not "clueless in the market"
Also City didn't splash cash randomly in the beginning, and they only don't overspend recently when they already became the best team in the country (and so did not need to), just look at their spending as recent as this Jan, on top of that looks at the wages of someone like Haaland
When you are behind you need to spend to catch up, unfortunately for United they compounded the need to spend with irresponsible and thoughtless spending.
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Yeah that will work, considering the quality of our scouting.
I cant see us winning the Europa, we dont have enough goals in the team.
So no Europe at all next year IMHO.
We will see Evans & Casemiro leave, possibly Lindelof, Malacia, Zirkhee, Antony and Rashford too. Would love to see more but it wont happen.
And i see 3 Sporting players coming in Gyokeres, Quenda, and Gonclaves( id prefer Hjulmand), maybe Rigg from Sunderland. Outside chance of Dibling if we move quick enough.
Mount will be like a new signing yet again, Martinez likewise and maybe a Lacey, Ibragimov, Obi Martin or Moorhouse come into the squad from the youth.
It leaves a decent squad with a lot of youth and a few old heads. Much better than we have now.
Onana Bayindir Harrison
Mazaroui, De Ligt, Maguire, Yoro, Heaven, Martinez, Shaw, Dalot
Mainoo, Ugarte, Eriksen, Dorgu, Quenda, Collyer, Moorhouse, Rigg
Gyokeres, Hojlund, Amad, Garnacho, Mount, Fernandes, Gonclaves, Dibling.
So no Europe at all next year IMHO.
We will see Evans & Casemiro leave, possibly Lindelof, Malacia, Zirkhee, Antony and Rashford too. Would love to see more but it wont happen.
And i see 3 Sporting players coming in Gyokeres, Quenda, and Gonclaves( id prefer Hjulmand), maybe Rigg from Sunderland. Outside chance of Dibling if we move quick enough.
Mount will be like a new signing yet again, Martinez likewise and maybe a Lacey, Ibragimov, Obi Martin or Moorhouse come into the squad from the youth.
It leaves a decent squad with a lot of youth and a few old heads. Much better than we have now.
Onana Bayindir Harrison
Mazaroui, De Ligt, Maguire, Yoro, Heaven, Martinez, Shaw, Dalot
Mainoo, Ugarte, Eriksen, Dorgu, Quenda, Collyer, Moorhouse, Rigg
Gyokeres, Hojlund, Amad, Garnacho, Mount, Fernandes, Gonclaves, Dibling.
which is why I wanted a full buyout from the sheikh despite everything that would go with that
My guess is we'll have about £12/7s/6d plus a few out-of-date Mars bars
I just wanted full buyout whoever it was
It has to be a striker.
No other position in the team comes close to being as important as getting a striker in. We're not going to win games with any sort of consistancy if we don't have someone who can reliably score goals.
Which do you think is the better fit out of Gyokeres/Osimhen or should we go PL proven?
We needed a full buyout whether the Sheikh was the right option, we will never really know. PSG have untold wealth and only been to one CL Final since the Qatar buy out.
I hope we just start getting lucky with signings and the fans embrace young players, give them time and don’t expect them to be the finished product after 1 year in the first team.
We need a new GK however Ely Harrison could solve the situation in a year or two. We desperately need an elite number 9 and inside SS/Number 10, we need a crreatice physical CM and at least one more wingback and one fast physical CB. It’s such a shame Shea Lacey has fitness issues because he would have excited the Fans.
When Summer comes, I can’t see us getting more than 2/3 players and we’ll continue as a club in free fall.
I think we'd have to win the Europa to stand any chance of affording and attracting Gyokeres.
Weirdly I'm actually really confident we will win it. There are no strong teams in the Europa League this season.
Same with an Osimhen too
The other teams are saying the same about us
The other teams are saying the same about us
Indeed. Nobody in the competition has anything to fear from this United side. Lazio, Athletic Club and Eintracht Frankfurt are all in the CL places in their respective leagues and should be beating us. For all of Spurs' problems this season, I wouldn't fancy us over them, either. Ajax would probably be confident of beating us. Roma, Galatasaray and Olympiacos would have a good go, too. They are all better than Palace or Wolves, who have beaten us recently.