Our season this year is going to be defined by how we perform against teams outside the top 4. If consistently we do well against them we'll make the top 4, and then our performances against the top 4 will simply define where in the top 4 we finish.
I agree absolutely. 80% of the points come from teams outside of top 4, these games are the most important. Last year Chelsea did very well against the top teams, but couldn't break the teams parking the bus, so they finished 3rd. Our number one priority should be to set up a system that would allow us to break these teams and I think 3-5-2 is suiting us best at the moment. Let's review the 3 possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Playing against a team parking the bus (e.g. most of our home games and some away games against lower teams). 3-5-2 would allow us to use RVP, Rooney and Mata - our best attacking players, the relative lack of pace is not an issue against a team parking the bus, the two wing backs would play in much more advanced position, almost like pure wingers and the 3 CBs should be able to sweep up the rare counter attack. This is very attacking formation and definitely the best for this scenario.
Alternate Scenario 1a: We score 1 or 2, so they might open up a bit. We can bring Januzaj or another pacy forward/winger to inject a bit of pace, so depending on weather we take off a FW or a CB we either keep the 3-5-2, or transform into 4-3-3.
Alternate Scenario 1b: The score is tied or they manage to score against us. This is the most attacking set-up, so just continue doing the same.
Scenario 2. Playing against a team going full attack against us (e.g. Liverpool away, City away, etc.). 3-5-2 would need to be tweaked a bit. The two wing backs would play in much more withdrawn position, pretty much like traditional full backs, which will make it 5-3-2. Only one of Rooney or RVP should play in attack, the second forward should be someone with pace (Welbeck, Chicha, Januzaj or even Young). The number 10 should be someone who could do more defensive work, but still be able to release the ball quickly for a counter attack (maybe Rooney or Kagawa instead of Mata).
Alternate Scenario 2a: They score 1 or 2, so we would need to open up. The pacy forward moves to the wing (Welbeck, Januzaj or even Young) and we bring Januzaj or another winger and take off a CB, the wing backs move to traditional FB position, in essence transforming the formation into 4-3-3.
Last ditch effort 2aa: We are still losing and there are only 10 minutes left. Bring Fellaini for one of the DMs and try more crosses from the wings.
Alternate Scenario 2b: The score is tied or we manage to score. This is the best set-up, so just continue doing the same.
Scenario 3. Playing against a balanced attacking/defending team (e.g. Arsenal home and away, Newcastle away, etc.). In this case we could probably start with 4-3-3 and switch later if needed.
In other words with our current players 90% of the time (Scenario 1 and 2) the 3-5-2 or the tweaked version 5-3-2 would suit us best, which also coincides with the fact that it makes best use of our best players. It's a no-brainer that LVG is seeing it as plan A for us. The only issue is that we are lacking depth in the CBs, which I'm sure will be addressed by signing 1 or 2 CBs (especially left footed one, who can play as LB is needed). The other issue of Januzaj not getting enough game time is really not an issue - he will get plenty of game time coming off the bench, or starting as part of the front 2 or as a number 10. In the cases, when we start with 4-3-3 he can start on the wing as well. That's plenty of game time for a 19 year old who is still developing.
