SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Brwned]

We’ve only had a week closed down and it’ll be a couple of weeks before we see the benefit

still, in general I don’t care how they spin it, I think it’s obvious that there is correlation. You can’t tell me that 14 year olds aren’t spreading it around their classrooms

Even when the scientists provide the evidence?

No-one is saying 14 year olds are properly social distancing at all times and taking all necessary precautions to limit the spread. They're saying that even in purely biological terms, irrespective of behaviour, they are less likely to spread it.

I didn't trust the politicians at all when they were saying it doesn't spread much amount kids teenagers but I don't see why we should doubt the significant number of independent scientists across the world that have come to the same conclusion, with separate pieces if evidence. All of the evidence is imperfect but why should we distrust their conclusions?

 

[Sarni]

Not this time. The French and German leagues are continuing during their lockdown so will be no different here.

Domestic competition will continue but Champions League may stop at some point due to travel.

 

[sullydnl]

Seems similar to what happened in Ireland, where a Level 5 lockdown recommendation was initially rejected (presumably due to economic fears) in favour of a lighter plan government were told wouldn't work. The government was then forced to introduce the Level 5 lockdown weeks later anyway except for a longer (and more economically damaging) period.

In both cases I'm not sure what the government's plan was beyond hoping their scientific/medical advice was wrong.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Seems similar to what happened in Ireland, where a Level 5 lockdown recommendation was initially rejected (presumably due to economic fears) in favour of a lighter plan government were told wouldn't work. The government was then forced to introduce the Level 5 lockdown weeks later anyway except for a longer (and more economically damaging) period.

In both cases I'm not sure what the government's plan was beyond hoping their scientific/medical advice was wrong.

The Irish situation is interesting in that it looks as though we’ve turned the corner based on Level 3 restrictions alone (see my previous post re timings) so there’s an argument to be made that Level 5 was never necessary and certainly not as early as NPHET’s original recommendation. Just goes to show what an inexact science all of this is. With errors and misjudgments inevitable, from scientists and politicians alike.

 

[cyberman]

The Irish situation is interesting in that it looks as though we’ve turned the corner based on Level 3 restrictions alone (see my previous post re timings) so there’s an argument to be made that Level 5 was never necessary and certainly not as early as NPHET’s original recommendation. Just goes to show what an inexact science all of this is. With errors and misjudgments inevitable, from scientists and politicians alike.

I think the ideas are pretty similar. Most counties would have needed to be put in tier 3 eventually but its all out of sync. Dublin may get it down but then neighbouring counties get hit hard and the overspill means Dublin are in and out of tier 3 through no fault of their own. Its the same story as to why Donegal suffered from the madness in Derry. We may get it under control again but a flair up in Derry means a flair up here.
Just seems best to reset everybody as the same rate

 

[sullydnl]

The Irish situation is interesting in that it looks as though we’ve turned the corner based on Level 3 restrictions alone (see my previous post re timings) so there’s an argument to be made that Level 5 was never necessary and certainly not as early as NPHET’s original recommendation. Just goes to show what an inexact science all of this is. With errors and misjudgments inevitable, from scientists and politicians alike.

Tbf they still seem rather cautious in ascribing the turning of the corner to the Level 3 lockdown:

 

[MTF]

The Irish situation is interesting in that it looks as though we’ve turned the corner based on Level 3 restrictions alone (see my previous post re timings) so there’s an argument to be made that Level 5 was never necessary and certainly not as early as NPHET’s original recommendation. Just goes to show what an inexact science all of this is. With errors and misjudgments inevitable, from scientists and politicians alike.

I think that managing through this whole situation is akin to military leadership at war. Nothing is ever certain, not the disposition and intentions of the enemy, not even your own forces' disposition and supply status. If you wait for the perfect picture, akin to waiting for the science to be certain here, events will already have passed you by. Unfortunately decisions have to be made with imperfect information.

 

[RedRover]

Yes I can see that but keeping the economy up also leads to more people getting hurt and needing a higher economy afterwards.

That's why I see taking an economic break would be better like the other countries are doing.

Ours just seem to be keeping everything as it is and wondering which one drops out first - hoping it's the virus when as you say they are interlinked. An economic break can be controlled if pre-planned but the virus can be only controlled so far in one way by stopping the economy running as it normally does.

It may well be the right thing to do. My point was that these things are linked, and therefore a balance needs to be struck. How we do that is clearly a difficult question.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Tbf they still seem rather cautious in ascribing the turning of the corner to the Level 3 lockdown:

They’re right to be cautious. Especially when discussing this in public. How do they get the nation to buy in to Level 5 if they openly admit it probably wasn’t needed?

To be fair, I’m glad we went to Level 5. Level 3 might stop the increase but we should try and get numbers as low as possible, as quickly as possible, to try and have some semblance of a normal Christmas. And the current lull in case numbers does feel very fragile. I’m also glad we didn’t jump straight to Level 5 when NPHET first recommended it. It was easier to adjust, mentally, to the more gradual way it all panned out.

The elephant in the room now is border controls. An unpopular subject in Ireland at the best of times!

 

[RedRover]

People won't be going out to the pub or restaurant either if they're reading 1000 people a day are dying of covid. The reality is we're going to end up with more draconian and longer measures because we didn't nip it in the bud decisively.

Great idea. How do we do it exactly? Seems it's not that easy, as the vast majority of the world is finding.

Re your first point, I disagree. Some people won't want to go out, others will. Although I don't know why you're specifically mentioning pubs and restaurants, since I didn't. The economy is more than hospitality.

I didn't think my point was that controversial. Balance may be hard to find but that has to be the aim. A collapsed economy damages public health.

 

[LARulz]

Domestic competition will continue but Champions League may stop at some point due to travel.

I think as long as they do the testing before/after traveling it will continue. It's the only way to continue I imagine.

Also, I know there are reasons I haven't thought of. But it's something I want to see happen for us all 'normal' people. I want to go see my fiance easily but can't - if I had to take a test before and after flying I would, even if it cost a couple hundred extra

 

[Compton22]

I've heard that all regions could be placed in tier 3 restrictions with tougher measures imposed in areas already in tier 3 (tier 4?). They are citing the declining r rate in the tier 3 areas in the North as the rationale for this approach. So it won't be another total lockdown and they want to avoid this being perceived as one.

 

[golden_blunder]

Even when the scientists provide the evidence?

No-one is saying 14 year olds are properly social distancing at all times and taking all necessary precautions to limit the spread. They're saying that even in purely biological terms, irrespective of behaviour, they are less likely to spread it.

I didn't trust the politicians at all when they were saying it doesn't spread much amount kids teenagers but I don't see why we should doubt the significant number of independent scientists across the world that have come to the same conclusion, with separate pieces if evidence. All of the evidence is imperfect but why should we distrust their conclusions?

Because when school starts my kids catch every cold, flu, tummy bug, etc going around without fail. I really don’t trust these bits of evidence based on data from a few months, which doesn’t take into account parents in the situation either. Seriously how could Covid NOT spread at schools?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Because even school starts my kids catch every cold, flu, tummy bug, etc going around. I really don’t trust these bits of evidence based on data from a few months, which doesn’t take into account parents in the situation either. Seriously how could Covid NOT spread at schools?

There are a few different theories about why kids seem a) less likely to get infected and/or b) less likely to infect others. Good explanation in this article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/parenting/coronavirus-children-spread-covid-19.html

Obviously “less likely “ doesn’t mean they won’t spread the virus at all but there seems to be enough of a difference to justify prioritising keeping schools open. And keeping kids (including poor/vulnerable kids) in school makes sense as a priority for society. One example of this being Rashford’s campaigning to keep school meals going during holidays.

 

[11101]

Even when the scientists provide the evidence?

No-one is saying 14 year olds are properly social distancing at all times and taking all necessary precautions to limit the spread. They're saying that even in purely biological terms, irrespective of behaviour, they are less likely to spread it.

I didn't trust the politicians at all when they were saying it doesn't spread much amount kids teenagers but I don't see why we should doubt the significant number of independent scientists across the world that have come to the same conclusion, with separate pieces if evidence. All of the evidence is imperfect but why should we distrust their conclusions?

I think the thousands of schools being forced to close around Europe proves that kids do spread it, and spread it quite a lot. Maybe not the very young, but teenagers are physically adults for the most part.

Dont forget scientists are learning as they go. Many things we thought we knew about this virus have turned out to be wrong, how it spreads being a major one.

 

[Sied]

Random question for the knowledge posters in here...

I live on the Isle of Man which has been coronavirus-free since about May (other than the odd self-isolation case from people returning to the island). However in the past few weeks loads of friends and colleagues have had the common cold. How's that possible? Has it been here all year but has resurfaced in the cold weather? Or has it come into the island in the same way coronavirus could?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Random question for the knowledge posters in here...

I live on the Isle of Man which has been coronavirus-free since about May (other than the odd self-isolation case from people returning to the island). However in the past few weeks loads of friends and colleagues have had the common cold. How's that possible? Has it been here all year but has resurfaced in the cold weather? Or has it come into the island in the same way coronavirus could?

Great question! Never really understood that myself. Where do seasonal viruses hide during summer? I’m sure google could throw up some theories. I’m too lazy to check though.

 

[Garethw]

Because when school starts my kids catch every cold, flu, tummy bug, etc going around without fail. I really don’t trust these bits of evidence based on data from a few months, which doesn’t take into account parents in the situation either. Seriously how could Covid NOT spread at schools?

100% with you on this. Literally 3 days after school started after lockdown, my 6 year old had a cold, which then quickly turned into all of us in the house having a cold for the first time in 5 months. Bit of a coincidence that, eh?

 

[Penna]

All of governments efforts here are so disjointed that it does make you think people aren’t taking it seriously enough because of it. They made a decision yesterday to close all cemeteries for the weekend, it’s a holiday weekend so virtually everyone across country travels to visit graves on November 1. While this is a correct decision, it should have been done a week or two ago, not now - some have already traveled, businesses have stocked up on flowers and candles they will not be able to do anything with now (candles you can still use but flowers you’ve got to bin) and the outcome is yet more protests on the streets over weekend. Most of the country is protesting now - women against new abortion regulations, conspiracy freaks against plandemic. Covid and it’s 300 deaths per day appear to be an afterthought in all of it.

It all seems very difficult in Poland at the moment. I'm sorry, it must be very stressful living there right now. When I visited Poland, I loved the way everyone we met was so proud of their country (this was many years ago, I have to say).

 

[acnumber9]

We’ve only had a week closed down and it’ll be a couple of weeks before we see the benefit

still, in general I don’t care how they spin it, I think it’s obvious that there is correlation. You can’t tell me that 14 year olds aren’t spreading it around their classrooms

Of course they are. The evidence the executive here used for the circuit breaker estimated that reduction of the R rate was 5 times greater with school closures than hospitality closures. But we’re going to ignore that and re-open them on Monday.

 

[golden_blunder]

There are a few different theories about why kids seem a) less likely to get infected and/or b) less likely to infect others. Good explanation in this article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/parenting/coronavirus-children-spread-covid-19.html

Obviously “less likely “ doesn’t mean they won’t spread the virus at all but there seems to be enough of a difference to justify prioritising keeping schools open. And keeping kids (including poor/vulnerable kids) in school makes sense as a priority for society. One example of this being Rashford’s campaigning to keep school meals going during holidays.

Yeah I get the social aspect, I live in a poor area, and there is some merit to it. But, poor areas also have a higher % of people with health issues, who need to be shielded. They don’t seem to be taken into account. I strongly feel that there should be lessons provided remotely as an option that parents can avail off.
Instead we are told that they can’t do it because there’s no resources for it and secondly if we choose to keep our kids off or if they are kept off sick more often (for example if they have sniffles and you’re doing the right thing by not sending them in), this all goes against their school attendance records. There isn’t any leeway given. This means parents are being forced to send kids into school. I feel they should be enabled to make individual choices to keep them off if the country is in lvl5 for example.
I’m cocooning since March. The only time I meet people outside my own bubble is taking or picking kids up at school. Many parents don’t wear masks, they crowd despite signposts and repeated guidance, etc. I’m at risk every time I go. Why aren’t they considering people like me as well rather than just spinning shit that it’s safe.

 

[dumbo]

Random question for the knowledge posters in here...

I live on the Isle of Man which has been coronavirus-free since about May (other than the odd self-isolation case from people returning to the island). However in the past few weeks loads of friends and colleagues have had the common cold. How's that possible? Has it been here all year but has resurfaced in the cold weather? Or has it come into the island in the same way coronavirus could?

No knowledge here but I always thought colds just stick around but because transmission is lower during certain periods they can appear to have vanished entirely. Common bugs are always circulating.

Or magic

 

[golden_blunder]

Of course they are. The evidence the executive here used for the circuit breaker estimated that reduction of the R rate was 5 times greater with school closures than hospitality closures. But we’re going to ignore that and re-open them on Monday.

Because it’s a vote killer. FF mandate down here for example was keeping the schools open above everything else. Now they are hard headed enough to stubbornly stick to that no matter what

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah I get the social aspect, I live in a poor area, and there is some merit to it. But, poor areas also have a higher % of people with health issues, who need to be shielded. They don’t seem to be taken into account. I strongly feel that there should be lessons provided remotely as an option that parents can avail off.
Instead we are told that they can’t do it because there’s no resources for it and secondly if we choose to keep our kids off or if they are kept off sick more often (for example if they have sniffles and you’re doing the right thing by not sending them in), this all goes against their school attendance records. There isn’t any leeway given. This means parents are being forced to send kids into school. I feel they should be enabled to make individual choices to keep them off if the country is in lvl5 for example.
I’m cocooning since March. The only time I meet people outside my own bubble is taking or picking kids up at school. Many parents don’t wear masks, they crowd despite signposts and repeated guidance, etc. I’m at risk every time I go. Why aren’t they considering people like me as well rather than just spinning shit that it’s safe.

Honestly, geebs, I know it worries you but the chance of you picking up the virus when you’re picking your kids up from school (outdoors) are so slim it’s not worth stressing about. This virus is being passed on indoors, in poorly ventilated spaces, when people spend a long time in each other’s company. It isn’t jumping from host to host when they briefly stand less than two metres apart outdoors.

 

[golden_blunder]

Honestly, geebs, I know it worries you but the chance of you picking up the virus when you’re picking your kids up from school (outdoors) are so slim it’s not worth stressing about. This virus is being passed on indoors, in poorly ventilated spaces, when people spend a long time in each other’s company. It isn’t jumping from host to host when they briefly stand less than two metres apart outdoors.

We’ve all had a stinking cold this week, I’m still not over it. Started with my 8 year old on the last day of school before the break and spread to all of us. We haven’t been anywhere other than school. I’m sorry I just don’t see how they can’t catch and spread Covid as easily as that when we are told it’s more contagious than the flu. I really don’t see the logic of how they don’t spread it

 

[golden_blunder]

100% with you on this. Literally 3 days after school started after lockdown, my 6 year old had a cold, which then quickly turned into all of us in the house having a cold for the first time in 5 months. Bit of a coincidence that, eh?

Exactly right!? Many parents saying the same thing but we are led down the path that it’s not possible. We’ve all had a stinking cold this week which started with my eldest boy on last day of school. I know he didn’t catch it anywhere else because he doesn’t go anywhere else

 

[Pogue Mahone]

We’ve all had a stinking cold this week, I’m still not over it. Started with my 8 year old on the last day of school before the break and spread to all of us. We haven’t been anywhere other than school. I’m sorry I just don’t see how they can’t catch and spread Covid as easily as that when we are told it’s more contagious than the flu. I really don’t see the logic of how they don’t spread it

You caught the cold from your kid in your own home. You didn’t catch it from another adult during the school run. And not all viruses are the same. There are plenty of viruses that wreck adults but barely affect kids at all because kids have a fundamentally different immune system to adults. It’s possible, maybe even likely, that this is one such virus. There’s a reason that mortality in kids is almost non-existent while it’s extremely dangerous for the elderly. Influenza is different. It’s just as bad for young kids as it is for the elderly.

And once again, I should stress that this definitely is being passed around in schools. But less than you’d think. And not at a rate to justify the downside of excluding all of the children in the country from school. With all the obvious downsides of remote learning.

 

[esmufc07]

 

[acnumber9]

Because it’s a vote killer. FF mandate down here for example was keeping the schools open above everything else. Now they are hard headed enough to stubbornly stick to that no matter what

Yeah I agree. Same reason they’re keeping places of worship open but closing close contact services despite being twice as likely to spread the virus. We’re being led through this with ulterior motives at play. Until they can show why cases exploded after schools re-opened I’ll take the scientific ‘evidence’ produced with a large grain of salt.

 

[Berbaclass]

Whats stopping them closing schools/Universities now for 4-6 weeks and just extending the term in the summer for 4-6 weeks?

 

[Berbaclass]

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah I agree. Same reason they’re keeping places of worship open but closing close contact services despite being twice as likely to spread the virus. We’re being led through this with ulterior motives at play. Until they can show why cases exploded after schools re-opened I’ll take the scientific ‘evidence’ produced with a large grain of salt.

Now that really is nuts. I’m with you there. You do feel for elderly people who need the weekly services for human contact but it’s putting the most at risk group into the riskiest possible scenario (indoors, with singing) Is that Northern Ireland only? Or whole of UK?

 

[golden_blunder]

You caught the cold from your kid in your own home. You didn’t catch it from another adult during the school run. And not all viruses are the same. There are plenty of viruses that wreck adults but barely affect kids at all because kids have a fundamentally different immune system to adults. It’s possible, maybe even likely, that this is one such virus. There’s a reason that mortality in kids is almost non-existent while it’s extremely dangerous for the elderly. Influenza is different. It’s just as bad for young kids as it is for the elderly.

And once again, I should stress that this definitely is being passed around in schools. But less than you’d think. And not at a rate to justify the downside of excluding all of the children in the country from school. With all the obvious downsides of remote learning.

Yes that was my point. Where do you think my kid caught it? They don’t go anywhere but school

 

[acnumber9]

Now that really is nuts. I’m with you there. You do feel for elderly people who need the weekly services for human contact but it’s putting the most at risk group into the riskiest possible scenario (indoors, with singing) Is that Northern Ireland only? Or whole of UK?

I assume they’re still currently open across the UK. I’m specifically talking about the circuit breaker in Northern Ireland mind you. Only in Northern Ireland would something like that be a priority in this day and age.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yes that was my point. Where do you think my kid caught it? They don’t go anywhere but school

They caught it in school. Hence my point about not all viruses being the same.

But what happened to you fits with my point about adults not being a risk to other adults during a school run. If that had happened in your household then one of the adults would have been the first to get sick.

 

[Eugenius]

Great idea. How do we do it exactly? Seems it's not that easy, as the vast majority of the world is finding.

Re your first point, I disagree. Some people won't want to go out, others will. Although I don't know why you're specifically mentioning pubs and restaurants, since I didn't. The economy is more than hospitality.

I didn't think my point was that controversial. Balance may be hard to find but that has to be the aim. A collapsed economy damages public health.

SAGE's advice to the government has been very hawkish for the last six weeks. They have been providing clear policy suggestions as part of this. Instead of a circuit break, we got the rule of six and a tier system which did not reduce prevalence and barely slowed the R. Looks like we'll now get some form of circuit breaker, but longer & not after six weeks of continued exponential spread.

I'm not saying there isn't some trade off between economy and health. But when the prevalence and spread of virus is high the trade off becomes less relevant. The countries who are doing best economically are those with virtual eradication strategies. If you don't do anything further from here we are heading for deaths measured in the hundreds of thousands & an overwhelmed health service. Yes we can keep the economy open but individuals and corporates will self regulate themselves ultimately.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I assume they’re still currently open across the UK. I’m specifically talking about the circuit breaker in Northern Ireland mind you. Only in Northern Ireland would something like that be a priority in this day and age.

I’m actually kind surprised the same didn’t happen down south. Ten or twenty years ago there’s every chance that church lobbying would have kept their doors open. There’s been a big change over the course of my lifetime.

 

[Berbaclass]

If they announce it for Monday/Tuesday just imagine the carnage in pubs/streets tonight, just look at Nottingham the other night,

 

[Eugenius]

Now that really is nuts. I’m with you there. You do feel for elderly people who need the weekly services for human contact but it’s putting the most at risk group into the riskiest possible scenario (indoors, with singing) Is that Northern Ireland only? Or whole of UK?

Singing has been banned in places of worship, at least in England.

 

[Jippy]

Cheers mate, hope you woke up on time!

Thankfully. There now. They do random checks so had to have another covid test when we landed- this one was throat and nose.