SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[100]

Theres no chance of controlling it without large scale isolations.

The key thing is the virus spreads before people know they have it. So its basically whack-a-mole, 2 or three days later. Its already spreading through two or three more people before the confirmed cases come in.

We're just slowing the spread, lockdown of schools and businesses will be a week or two away.

 

[fallengt]

Where're "it's just a flu" folks at now?

 

[Adamsk7]

South Korea are showing us how it’s done. Huge amount of testing and no surprises. The only way you can protect the vulnerable from this is to make sure as many people that have it KNOW they have it. That’s why Korea’s death rate is so low - they are simply better at finding the asymptomatic or those with just cold symptoms so A) they can actually see how and where this is spreading and more crucially B) make sure those people don’t interact with the older or compromised population.
The UK is doing an OK job in this regard, certainly better than all the European countries bar Italy (who were forced in to it after it broke out) and waaaaaay better then the states but even then we are some way behind South Korea.

 

[Im red2]

Corona World map

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

South Korea are showing us how it’s done. Huge amount of testing and no surprises. The only way you can protect the vulnerable from this is to make sure as many people that have it KNOW they have it. That’s why Korea’s death rate is so low - they are simply better at finding the asymptomatic or those with just cold symptoms so A) they can actually see how and where this is spreading and more crucially B) make sure those people don’t interact with the older or compromised population.
The UK is doing an OK job in this regard, certainly better than all the European countries bar Italy (who were forced in to it after it broke out) and waaaaaay better then the states but even then we are some way behind South Korea.

I keep saying it, but Hong Kong and Singapore are down to only a ~5% increase in new cases per day, I know they're effectively city states and it's hard to compare them with here, but they took robust measures without shutting down their economies and it's paying off.

South Korea is indeed a better example of where we should be drawing inspiration from because they're a full sized country with spread out towns and cities. Yes they have 7k cases, but it's "only" spreading at 2.5% to 7% per day. Much more manageable.

Our cases are currently rising by ~30% per day at present. That's similar to Italy.

I really don't feel like we're going far enough yet.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

South Korea are showing us how it’s done. Huge amount of testing and no surprises. The only way you can protect the vulnerable from this is to make sure as many people that have it KNOW they have it. That’s why Korea’s death rate is so low - they are simply better at finding the asymptomatic or those with just cold symptoms so A) they can actually see how and where this is spreading and more crucially B) make sure those people don’t interact with the older or compromised population.
The UK is doing an OK job in this regard, certainly better than all the European countries bar Italy (who were forced in to it after it broke out) and waaaaaay better then the states but even then we are some way behind South Korea.

We're on course to where Italy are currently at.

Government have done basically nothing proactive. It's all reactive moves, coming days too late.

Proper leadership is needed right now if lives are to be saved.

 

[Arruda]

https://mailchi.mp/esicm/the-future...7yq7AcIDR9UG9JM8dbpCjHA5daxEr1Z42MX3lLdyf2MCE

Milan, 4 March 2020


Dear friends,

At this moment in time, we believe it is important to share our first impressions and what we have learned in the first ten days of the COVID-19 outbreak.

We have seen a very high number of ICU admissions, almost entirely due to severe hypoxic respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation.

The surge can be important during an outbreak and cluster containment has to be in place to slow down virus transmission.

We are seeing a high percentage of positive cases being admitted to our Intensive Care Units, in the range of 10% of all positive patients.

We wish to convey a strong message: Get ready!

We also want to share with you some key points from our experience:

• Get ready now - with your ICU’s networks - to define your contingency plan in the event of an outbreak in your community
• Don’t work “in silo”. Coordinate with your hospital management and other healthcare professionals to prepare your response
• Make sure your hospital management and procurement office have a protocol in place about which personal protection equipment (PPE) to stock and re-stock
• Make sure your staff is trained in donning and doffing procedures
• Use education, training and simulation as much as possible
• Identify early hospitals that can manage the initial surge in a safe way
• Increase your total ICU capacity
• Get ready to prepare ICU areas where to cohort COVID-19 + patients - in every hospital if necessary
• Put in place a triage protocol to identify suspected cases, test them and direct them to the right cohort
• Make sure you set clear goals for care with the patients and their families early on

With our best regards

Prof. Maurizio Cecconi Prof. Antonio Pesenti Prof. Giacomo Grasselli
President elect, ESICM University of Milan University of Milan
Humanitas University, Milan

 

[Maagge]

I keep saying it, but Hong Kong and Singapore are down to only a ~5% increase in new cases per day, I know they're effectively city states and it's hard to compare them with here, but they took robust measures without shutting down their economies and it's paying off.

South Korea is indeed a better example of where we should be drawing inspiration from because they're a full sized country with spread out towns and cities. Yes they have 7k cases, but it's "only" spreading at 2.5% to 7% per day. Much more manageable.

Our cases are currently rising by ~30% per day at present. That's similar to Italy.

I really don't feel like we're going far enough yet.

2.5 % per day still sounds a bit high. That's less than 30 days to double the amount of cases.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

We're on course to where Italy are currently at.

Government have done basically nothing proactive. It's all reactive moves, coming days too late.

Proper leadership is needed right now if lives are to be saved.

It's just old people who are dying their lives don't matter, it seems.

 

[11101]

There is a weird trend of people being happy that this virus is mainly killing older/weaker people. Losing anyone is a tragedy in itself and death is the most sure thing in this life but still, I can never feel relieved about this category of people being the weakest to fight the virus.

I think it's because people want to brush it off as 'just a flu' but in the back of their mind are wondering what if its not, being happy it only kills older people is a coping mechanism for those who are not old.

At the beginning of the Italian outbreak i was interested in the backgrounds of those who were dying. Now it's just numbers.

I've noticed that the YouTube videos of that doctor regularly get posted here but apparently he's wrong on certain stuff. There are no 2 strains as of today.

He's not a doctor and he knows little more than the average lay person. I'm glad he has gone silent.

On the epidemic preparedness index Italy are 35/195 of countries with a score of 56/100. The UK is 2/195 with 77.9/100. Italy is more comparable with Eastern European states than even other Southern European states apart from Greece which they are one place lower than. They’re not really comparable to Western European nations according to the index in having the infrastructure to cope. South Korea would be more useful to look at as they’re in the highest bracket of preparedness at 9/195 and a score of 70.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

I think the US response has shown that index is nonsense.

Plus, Italy is very much split into two halves, with the wealthy North being dragged down by the very poor South. Speaking from experience the medical system in Lombardy is easily equivalent to the NHS.

 

[RoadTrip]

All this talk of a few hundred cases is bullshit. They’re only testing people who fit certain criteria and who largely self select themselves for testing in the first place. We keep hearing stories about individuals who went out with the virus and we’re supposed to be shocked by how irresponsible they are. Meanwhile there’s probably thousands of infected people with no idea who are out there spreading it everywhere.

This is spot on. The number of confirmed cases is a factor of how many are actually being tested. Whilst I think the testing does cover a decent proportion most likely to have it, it’s always playing catch up because there’s people who haven’t been tested because they aren’t yet symptomatic and are passing it on, or indeed those who are symptomatic but don’t get tested (as it’s clear on the NHS website even that not everyone gets tested).

So whilst the news says X cases it’s really important to note that this is probably at a serious lag to who actually has it.

 

[thebelfastboy]

This is spot on. The number of confirmed cases is a factor of how many are actually being tested. Whilst I think the testing does cover a decent proportion most likely to have it, it’s always playing catch up because there’s people who haven’t been tested because they aren’t yet symptomatic and are passing it on, or indeed those who are symptomatic but don’t get tested (as it’s clear on the NHS website even that not everyone gets tested).

So whilst the news says X cases it’s really important to note that this is probably at a serious lag to who actually has it.

Are there any statistics available that give the breakdown of (uk):
- total number of people tested
- number of these tested positive

 

[Prometheus]

 

[2cents]

Corona World map

Miracle Turkey:

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Are there any statistics available that give the breakdown of (uk):
- total number of people tested
- number of these tested positive

 

[thegregster]

Grim news in Italy.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I think the US response has shown that index is nonsense.

Plus, Italy is very much split into two halves, with the wealthy North being dragged down by the very poor South. Speaking from experience the medical system in Lombardy is easily equivalent to the NHS.

The response will always be in the hands of politicians but it measures preparedness in terms of infrastructure and planning. It's pretty detailed and comprehensive. I don't think it has much to do with their health service experienced on day to day but citizens. If you look at the 'response' section on Italy's page they score 0.0 on this and do badly in a number of other factors

3.3.1a) Does the country have in place an Emergency Operations Centre (EOC)?
Score and/or Justification:
Italy's primary emergency operations centre does not address pandemics. There is evidence that an emergency operations committee through the Ministry of Health for Italy is activated during a public health emergency. Italy's general emergency operations centre is the Italy Situation Room at the Department of Civil Protection, which runs the Sistema incident-monitoring unit.. However, as the Department is focused on responding to natural disasters, disease outbreaks are not normally the triggering factor for response, and an analogous single institution does not exist for human public health emergencies. [1, 2] Instead, public health emergencies in Italy, including epidemics and even incidents caused by terrorists, are addressed by the national, regional, and municipal health agencies. The national government intervenes in proportion to the magnitude of the emergency. [3] In pandemics, for example, the National Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (CCM) sets up a committee to liaise with other relevant agencies at all levels. [4] In that regard, the first line of defense in outbreaks of disease are the regional reference centres, such as the Luigi Sacco Hospital in Milan, which coordinate with the Lazzaro Spallanzani National Institute for Infectious Diseases in Rome. [5] The Sacco hospital has a round-the-clock rapid intervention group (composed of medical and nursing staff) for the transfer of highly contagious patients from other regions of Northern Italy to the Spallanzani institute in clinical cases in the initial phase of epidemic events requiring special isolation procedures as wellas in episodes attributable to bioterrorism.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Grim news in Italy.

Good god. This is a catastrophe and is only going to accelerate from here.

 

[ArmandTamzarian]

Is the situation in the USA merely a result of a lack of testing due to manufacturing problems with the tests or is the lack of testing so that the confirmed cases numbers are artificially low?

I really wouldn't put it past the Trump Administration to care more about official numbers looking manageable that make themselves look better.

Edit, context:



Less than 6000 tests for a population of 300 million.

 

[Revan]

Italy is fecked, the second day in a row they are reporting more than 1000 cases, and now the number of deaths there is greater than the number of deaths in the rest of the world combined (excluding China).

Why the quarantine was not done before is inexcusable.

 

[Drifter]

Tesco and Waitrose rationing essentials after stockpiling sees shelves empty

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...rose-toilet-roll-hand-sanitiser-a9385391.html

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Italy is fecked, the second day in a row they are reporting more than 1000 cases, and now the number of deaths there is greater than the number of deaths in the rest of the world combined (excluding China).

Why the quarantine was not done before is inexcusable.

I know right. Been clamouring for a fecking lockdown for a month. Sickening to see whats going on. Sickening to see the worlds leader just watch as so many lives are lost.

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

Italy is fecked, the second day in a row they are reporting more than 1000 cases, and now the number of deaths there is greater than the number of deaths in the rest of the world combined (excluding China).

Why the quarantine was not done before is inexcusable.

Hearing somebody as intelligent and reasonable as you saying that is quite worrying!

I don't wish for Italy to burn like this, but I hope the scale of the problem doesn't get this bad elsewhere.

 

[Revan]

I don't wish for Italy to burn like this, but I hope the scale of the problem doesn't get this bad elsewhere.

Unfortunately, it seems a matter of time. The forecasts are saying 20-60% of the world population is going to get it within the year. I guess at this stage is all about buying time (if fewer people have it at the same time it is much better than many having it, even if the total number of infected during the year is the same).

I guess the only way to have stopped it is if the entire world did a Wuhan, but that clearly is not happening. Let's hope that the spring and warmer weather really affects it, but it is just hope.

 

[Arruda]

Monday our President was saying he wasn't changing any of his behaviour (he's a bit of a populist m, always in crowds hugging and kissing etc).

Today he said he his placing himself under "voluntary isolation"

 

[Dante]

It's just old people who are dying their lives don't matter, it seems.

You're the only person who's saying that.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

You're the only person who believes that.

You and I both know that isn't true in the slightest.

 

[Dante]

You and I both know that isn't true in the slightest.

Who else believes it other than you?

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Who else believes it other than you?

I'm guessing many do not only by the lack urgency shown by the world leaders but also the relaxed views by a vast majority of the population. I've seen many people constantly push forward the fact that this is "just a flu" that only affects older people or those with underlying health conditions.

You must be living under a rock.

 

[Dante]

I'm guessing many do not only by the lack urgency shown by the world leaders but also the relaxed views by a vast majority of the population. I've seen many people constantly push forward the fact that this is "just a flu" that only affects older people or those with underlying health conditions.

You must be living under a rock.

Can you show me a post that supports your claim?

 

[botond]

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Can you show me a post that supports your claim?

You know the world isn't just confined to this board? I've seen a couple of posters claim its just a flu. That Nou Camp fellow. Look around at the world, for heavens sake. The president of the US doesnt give a rats ass, our PM came out with the "wash your hands", the Italians seemingly only just started caring, and the Iranians kept it on the low for political reasons.

 

[Dante]

You know the world isn't just confined to this board? I've seen a couple of posters claim its just a flu. That Nou Camp fellow. Look around at the world, for heavens sake. The president of the US doesnt give a rats ass, our PM came out with the "wash your hands", the Italians seemingly only just started caring, and the Iranians kept it on the low for political reasons.

You said:

It's just old people who are dying their lives don't matter, it seems.

None of what you've said supports your claim.

 

[sugar_kane]

What’s intriguing is all the posters I put on ignore for being insufferable on the United forum are heavy contributors to this thread too (I see the hidden posts when people quote them)

 

[Lyricist]

You said:

It's just old people who are dying their lives don't matter, it seems.

None of what you've said supports your claim.

Sorry, but I'm totally with him on this. I absolutely agree with his opinion about what the response in the West has been to this.

It seems like 99% of the people see this as:
(A) "This hype is so annoying, I'm sick of hearing about this, lets change to another news story already, could we please?"
(B) "But what about the mortality rate and the high number of new cases being recorded every day in so many different countries?"
(A) "Well see, it affects those who are old or already sick, just like any other disease. Stop pushing this story so much."
(paraphrased from the general opinions most people share about this)

 

[Rhyme Animal]

My Mum was at Gatwick 3 weeks ago and is now ill...

She's 61 and is just brushing it off (as she's done with the whole story) and is being very blasé about it, won't really even acknowledge the reality (such is her personality).

We've asked her if she thinks she should report it and look into isolating - flat out 'no', and end of conversation.

 

[Member 109952]

News coming out of Italy is very concerning, that's a dramatic acceleration of cases and deaths. With the amount of people in contact in the UK with people from Italy it's not going to bode well for our numbers over the next week or two.

Weirdly my flat mate (mid 20s) has been last couple of days despite not going out of the house, and my little sister (13) has been ill all week from a cold. So hard to discern right now whether that's just a normal flu or the virus, and what to do about it. I feel like we should be taking more extreme measures but I think people are too inconvenienced by things like washing hands regularly, isolation etc to actually bother before it gets really bad.

 

[Dante]

Sorry, but I'm totally with him on this. I absolutely agree with his opinion about what the response in the West has been to this.

It seems like 99% of the people see this as:
(A) "This hype is so annoying, I'm sick of hearing about this, lets change to another news story already, could we please?"
(B) "But what about the mortality rate and the high number of new cases being recorded every day in so many different countries?"
(A) "Well see, it affects those who are old or already sick, just like any other disease. Stop pushing this story so much."
(paraphrased from the general opinions most people share about this)

It seems like 99% of people don't see it as that.

It's easy to make up stats and anecdotes.

 

[duffer]

A gym that s few people at work (including the bloke who sits next to me) uses has sent an email to its members saying they've closed for a few days because a member has been diagnosed with the virus.

Hopefully everyone has been a lazy bastard recently and not gone.

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18290574.coronavirus-dorset-gym-poole-member-diagnosed-virus/

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I think that people flapping about what's going on in Italy should look at this index released in 2019. It ranks Italy pretty poorly regarding the capabilities to respond to an epidemic/pandemic. It measures 195 countries in the world on numerous aspects of being able to deal with this kind of issue through the infrastructure and systems they have in place. When it comes to 'responding' to such a situation Italy ranks especially poorly in the factors they measure - 59, 11, 129, 1, 76, 90 & 1 out of 195 countries. In some regards its a third world country when it comes to ability to respond. It doesn't even appear to have a central body to deal with such a situation.

https://www.ghsindex.org/country/italy/

The US, UK, Australia (1st, 2nd & 4th respectively) rank at the top of the index. The UK ranks pretty much 1st in every section for ability to respond to this type of situation 3,1,2,1,1,9,1 against the same factors.

https://www.ghsindex.org/country/united-kingdom/

I'm not trying to say that everything is going to be OK because the overall conclusion of the Index is:

A new Global Health Security Index released today, the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across 195 countries, suggests that not a single country in the world is fully prepared to handle an epidemic or pandemic. The GHS Index is a joint project of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), with research by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). The Center for Health Security is a part of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

There's also the fact that we have to let politicians run the show but in the UK government is at least very well placed to act, unlike in Italy.

www.ghsindex.org