I'm not doing that at all. From our latest death figures you can assume aminimum of around 20-30% of the population already HAS had the virus. In all likelyhood it's going to be something well above that as we have no fully accurate way of knowing how many people get it without showing symptoms. We're still getting over 4,000 new cases a day just from people who are being tested. From the number of recorded deaths, the virus IS running riot. It is going through care homes. It has infecting "at risk" people faster than our government has been able to test them.
And as I keep saying, I'm not suggesting coming out of lockdown and carrying on as normal is the right thing to do. I'm saying that what the UK is doing, is the wrong thing to do, because we don't even have a plan, we are plundering along and no matter how obvious it becomes that we need a plan one way or the other we just continue to plunder along, making up what we'll do next from one day to the other. Affecting everyone's day to day life and causing avoidable hardship for millions of people without even having a clear idea why we are doing it. It's quite ridiculous.
Staying in lockdown makes sense if you have a strategy like Germany have. They have been fully on top of knowinhg the number of infections the whole time, so know who it affects more, where it affects more, and how to contain and control it. They are down to only hundreds of new cases a day. By the time they come out of lockdown (which incidentally, will likely be less time than we're in it for) they will have the pandemic fully under control. They may even eridacte it completely, and will be in a position to try to contain it completely when it comes back. This in turn will be a massive help to getting their economy back on its feet. An example of what the whole point of going into a lockdown is meant to be.
Can you explain to me what we are doing? When we come out of lockdown, whether its next week, next month, whenever, we will be lucky if our testing is even keeping up with the number of new infections...we wont have anything under control. We wont have any kind of platform to keep the virus from continuing to cause damage. What we are doing only ever made sense from a short term perspective of protecting the NHS during it's busy period, by slowing the rate of infection and allowing our health service to cope. I presumed this must have been the idea because a) if we're trying to do anything beyond that then we are doing it VERY wrong, and b) this is what we were REPEATEDLY told the plan was at the start, before the narrative started to change every couple of hours.
Pogue I don't know what you are actually expecting to happen here. The numbers don't lie and what the numbers tell you is that our idea of lockdown doesn't actually work. You factor in the economic impacts, the fact the mortality of the virus mainly targets older, unwell people, the fact what we are doing doesn't actually include any effective way to control the virus or protect those people, and you're looking at a very ineffective plan that is causing major disruption to literally everything and everyone. It is creating situations where some people can't even get food to eat...and in a year's time you're going to be looking at a death toll that will be veyr similar to what would have been estimated had we done nothing at all.
The idea lockdown isn't a major effect on the economy is just obvious and complete bollocks. I mean come on now. The entire Swedish strategy was based around avoiding lockdown BECAUSE of the obvious long term effect it will have on the economy. People trying to at this point claim the opposite are living in a complete dream world...the reason I can't go to my office and work as normal has nothing to do with the virus. The reason my dad can't go out and buy himself food or get it delivered has nothing to do with the virus. The reason my brother's girlfriend no longer has a job has nothing to do with the virus. Lockdown is the reason for these things...you can argue it's necesary to combat the virus IF it actually combats the virus...but in order for that to be the case you kind of have to do the whole thing properly.
