SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Sweden had many of the advantages that have enabled Australia and NZ to avoid the worst but chose not to. Given that Sweden seems to be doing far worse than the rest of Scandinavia it is almost certain that not locking down has cost many lives, with more to come.

Bollocks by the way.
2 islands on the other side of the World to where it all kicked off in Italy and we all realised that shit had gotten real. We know for sure that Italy seeded Europe.

And you’re another that completely ignores the point on Malmö and Gothenburg because you’ve already decided lockdown was the only way. You can’t explain Belgium and you can’t explain Malmö.
You have no response to the Belgium and Sweden graphs mirroring each other despite one going into lockdown on 18th March and the other not doing it.

The idea that all Scandinavian countries started on the same point is so idiotic is hard to comprehend. If they did, once again, why is Malmö in Sweden doing miles better than Copenhagen in Denmark @Wibble, a city it shares a fecking bridge with? Maybe this time, leave your bias at the door and really have a real think.

Sometimes the obvious answer is right there in front of you, Stockholm, much like Belgium, had a shit load of the virus ”within it’s borders” in mid-March, no doubt due to half term timing. That’s why it has almost 1000 deaths, and the county in Sweden worst hit (cases per 100,000 citizens)... Sörmland, also had half term in week 9.
Malmö had a nicely timed half term and has much less virus in it’s City than Copenhagen in mid-March.
I mean, at this point that is verging almost on common sense.
If this isn’t the case, I full expect you to give me any reply as to why Gothenburg and Malmö are doing so well, if lockdown was the only way.

 

[buchansleftleg]

Explain it to me please, I have missed this?

The Journalist is claiming that someone within the department of health and social care created lots of "sockpuppet" twitter accounts and was using them to spread misinformation about how herd immunity was still a relevant response/ anti media / anti clap for NHS to sow dischord and create confusion.

When he went to DHSC with allegations, all of the twitter accounts were simultaneously deleted, confirming they were not individuals expressing their personal views, however cranky.

The Journalist claims to have proof they were all created by one individual within the DHSC rather than some Russian bot factory.

If this is true then it is truly explosive and would lead to resignations. Some have speculated that this is a tactic that Dominic Cummings has used before but the journalist has not made that claim.

 

[Wibble]

Bollocks by the way.
2 islands on the other side of the World to where it all kicked off in Italy and we all realised that shit had gotten real.

You had exactly the same advantage - no mass infection, low population density and the ability to control your borders.

And you’re another that completely ignores the point on Malmö and Gothenburg because you’ve already decided lockdown was the only way. You can’t explain Belgium and you can’t explain Malmö.
You have no response to the Belgium and Sweden graphs mirroring each other despite one going into lockdown on 18th March and the other not doing it.

Belgium had existing mass infection. if they hadn't locked down they would have been far far worse.

The idea that all Scandinavian countries started on the same point is so idiotic is hard to comprehend. If they did, once again, why is Malmö in Sweden doing miles better than Copenhagen in Denmark @Wibble, a city it shares a fecking bridge with? Maybe this time, leave your bias at the door and really have a real think.

Because Denmark is connected to mainland Europe I'd guess. Unless Sweden is managing the same level of distancing that other countries are doing with harsher restrictions (perhaps Swedes are very disciplined) or Swedes have some sort of natural immunity (which seems unlikely) it is undeniable that restrictions save lives. And of course not everywhere is the same. Singapore is suffering a big second wave due to the high density living conditions of expat workers for example. I really hope Sweden avoids a disaster but I fear they are being very cavalier.

Sometimes the obvious answer is right there in front of you, Stockholm, much like Belgium, had a shit load of the virus ”within it’s borders” in mid-March, no doubt due to half term timing. That’s why it has almost 1000 deaths, and the county in Sweden worst hit (cases per 100,000 citizens)... Sörmland, also had half term in week 9.
If this isn’t the case, I full expect you to give me any reply as to why Gothenburg and Malmö are doing so well, if lockdown was the only way.

Because there were fewer infections in Gothernberg and Malmo to start with would be the obvious answer. You may get away with your approach but it is very high risk and is trading lives for fewer restrictions. It is impossible that it isn't so as more social contract = more infection even if you don't yet know to what degree. The data seems clear - lockdowns are quickly followed by the curve flattening even if there are other factors.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

HTH

Thanks dude.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

Because there were fewer infections in Gothernberg and Malmo to start with would be the obvious answer. You may get away with your approach but it is very high risk and is trading lives for fewer restrictions. It is impossible that it isn't so as more social contract = more infection even if you don't yet know to what degree. The data seems clear - lockdowns are quickly followed by the curve flattening even if there are other factors.

There we go mate. Which in turn tells you there were many more in Stockholm to start with.

The last sentence is bizarre, I had literally just shown you a graph of Sweden and Denmark’s curves growing to peak and flattening in almost exactly the same time span. Are you gonna pretend you didn’t see that data?

 

[sullydnl]

@Regulus Arcturus Black

Worth pointing out when people quote Belgium's 6000 deaths that their figures count all deaths, including those outside hospital settings which many countries don't count. Unless Sweden also do so the comparison figure is less than half that 6000.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

There is a vaccine for pneumonia, does it help somewhat here (obviously not totally against covid) or is this pneumonia somehow different

The vaccine you mention is for a specific type of bacterial pneumonia (strep pneumococcus). Covid-19 causes a viral pneumonia, for which there is no vaccine (yet!)

People with covid-19 can get “secondary” bacterial pneumonia (where bacteria start to grow in a lung damaged by the virus) which is why antibiotics are often prescribed (antibiotics kill bacteria but not viruses) These secondary infections can be caused by a number of different bacteria, of which strep pneumococcus is only one.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

@Regulus Arcturus Black

Worth pointing out when people quote Belgium's 6000 deaths that their figures count all deaths, including those outside hospital settings which many countries don't count. Unless Sweden also do so the comparison figure is less than half that 6000.

I fecking pm’d you about this yesterday

Over 30% of Sweden’s deaths are from nursing homes. Those not counting are Holland, Spain, Italy, UK.
As I also wrote in my PM to you, Sweden are putting any suspected covid-19 in the stats and will “correct” them later through comparing increased mortality stats.

The comparison with Belgium isn’t about numbers of deaths though, as it’s clear that Belgium, who also had week 9 half term, had a shit load more virus than Sweden in mid-March, so that’d be missing the point.
It’s the flattening of the curve and time to peak that is almost identical in Belgium (lockdown) and Sweden (no lockdown) that is telling.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Incredible revelation that UK gov is persevering with a test that they know full well is defective in 25% of cases. What a shambles. This lot are simply unfit for government.

That’s bad but this is a bit misleading.

Although a numerical evaluation of the test’s reliability is not included in the NIS document, openDemocracy has learned from a leading pathologist with knowledge of the NIS’s ongoing review that the test misses 25 percent of positive cases.

That, according to one leading epidemiologist, is a “catastrophe”. It means that those given a virus-free status in error since testing first began two months ago would not have known they were infected.

From very early on the UK stopped testing community cases altogether. That’s what’s still happening now, right? Everyone was told to assume they have the virus and self-isolate if they have symptoms. False negatives will have zero effect on community spread so long as you’re not testing people in the community.

Different story for HCWs, mind you. False negatives for them is a disaster, as they will return to work sooner than they should. Then infect colleagues/patients.

 

[sullydnl]

I fecking pm’d you about this yesterday

Over 30% of Sweden’s deaths are from nursing homes. Those not counting are Holland, Spain, Italy, UK.
As I also wrote in my PM to you, Sweden are putting any suspected covid-19 in the stats and will “correct” them later through comparing increased mortality stats.

The comparison with Belgium isn’t about numbers of deaths though, as it’s clear that Belgium, who also had week 9 half term, had a shit load more virus than Sweden in mid-March, so that’d be missing the point.
It’s the flattening of the curve and time to peak that is almost identical in Belgium (lockdown) and Sweden (no lockdown) that is telling.

Shit, so you did. I'd forgotten I'd already asked that. Sorry!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I’ve seen momentum types jump all over that John Crace headline a few times know. Obviously to score points on Twitter you only need to share headlines. Nobody ever reads the articles linked. So job’s a good ‘un for retweets and likes regardless.

If they did read the article they’d realise it’s his usual (and funny) Tory bashing in which he concludes that Hancock might be marginally less of a feck up than the rest of half-wits he works with. Hardly a ringing endorsement.

 

[Smores]

Looks like the brexit comms team have been up to their usual tricks and have been setting up hundreds of fake nurse accounts calling for herd immunity, end of lockdown and proclaiming they have enough PPE etc.

Denied by Department of Health for now.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Is there no low to which this lot won't stoop? (read the thread)

 

[11101]

The vaccine you mention is for a specific type of bacterial pneumonia (strep pneumococcus). Covid-19 causes a viral pneumonia, for which there is no vaccine (yet!)

People with covid-19 can get “secondary” bacterial pneumonia (where bacteria start to grow in a lung damaged by the virus) which is why antibiotics are often prescribed (antibiotics kill bacteria but not viruses) These secondary infections can be caused by a number of different bacteria, of which strep pneumococcus is only one.

I was wondering about that. Antibiotics were used in 84% of deceased Italian patients, whilst antivirals were only used in 56% and corticosteroids in 35%. I had assumed it was for secondary infections, considering something like 97% had other illnesses, but wasn't sure.

 

[Smores]

As ever Faisal seems to be the only one at the BBC willing to do some actual journalism.

Edit: context of this is government ministers going round trying to use the large number of a billion as a defence.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Is there no low to which this lot won't stoop? (read the thread)

As far as I can work out, we can’t tell for certain whether the Tories are behind this or external agitators (e.g. Russia) but it’s nasty stuff all the same. The way they’ve ladled on all the progressive stereotypes so heavily (fake doctor is disabled, non-binary AND transitioning) makes me think of the St Petersberg bots but feck knows really.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I was wondering about that. Antibiotics were used in 84% of deceased Italian patients, whilst antivirals were only used in 56% and corticosteroids in 35%. I had assumed it was for secondary infections, considering something like 97% had other illnesses, but wasn't sure.

Yeah the ab’s would be for secondary infections. Often as a preventative measure. And often because when people are dying you just want to feel you’re doing everything possible to try and help even if you know it’s not likely to affect the outcome.

 

[dumbo]

The Factcheck Twitter name change shows that this government aren't averse to disseminating false, harmful information. If they are proven to be involved in stealing identities of NHS workers in a bid to mislead the public that should be them done.

 

[11101]

Is there no low to which this lot won't stoop? (read the thread)

As a side point, surely there are no deaf doctors? How would that work in an emergency if they can't communicate without interpreters.

 

[Smores]

As far as I can work out, we can’t tell for certain whether the Tories are behind this or external agitators (e.g. Russia) but it’s nasty stuff all the same. The way they’ve ladled on all the progressive stereotypes so heavily (fake doctor is disabled, non-binary AND transitioning) makes me think of the St Petersberg bots but feck knows really.

I didn't post the tweets as it's far from evidence right now but the thread states the person who used the mass posting tool is a Dept of Health employee. A russian setup seems unlikely

It's just the same bollocks they pulled with Universal Credit to be fair. The government dont sign off on this stuff but when they bring in message experts who repeatedly pull these stunts then someone above becomes accountable (Dom).

 

[golden_blunder]

Order is for 400 thousand gowns.
NHS is currently using approximately 150 thousands gowns a day. There is an article in the independent which quotes from a leaked email from the Independant from a military liaison officer sent to NHS saying a "sustainable" level of gown provision won't be possible till mid-June.
Disgusted doesn't even cover it.

Why don’t they repurpose some knicker or shirt factories to make their own??
I mean it’s not like they won’t need a huge ongoing supply

 

[ZupZup]

As far as I can work out, we can’t tell for certain whether the Tories are behind this or external agitators (e.g. Russia) but it’s nasty stuff all the same. The way they’ve ladled on all the progressive stereotypes so heavily (fake doctor is disabled, non-binary AND transitioning) makes me think of the St Petersberg bots but feck knows really.

In one of his explanatory threads the guy says the fake accounts are all registered in the name of an individual who works for the Government and is currently assigned to the Department for Health and Social Care. With that and the fact the accounts were all deleted as soon as they were rumbled would suggest it's more likely to be the Government than an external agitator I would say.

 

[Grinner]

As ever Faisal seems to be the only one at the BBC willing to do some actual journalism.

Edit: context of this is government ministers going round trying to use the large number of a billion as a defence.

I'm surprised the cnuts haven't tried claiming gloves as two items to really skew the numbers.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I didn't post the tweets as it's far from evidence right now but the thread states the person who used the mass posting tool is a Dept of Health employee. A russian setup seems unlikely

It's just the same bollocks they pulled with Universal Credit to be fair. The government dont sign off on this stuff but when they bring in message experts who repeatedly pull these stunts then someone above becomes accountable (Dom).

In one of his explanatory threads the guy says the fake accounts are all registered in the name of an individual who works for the Government and is currently assigned to the Department for Health and Social Care. With that and the fact the accounts were all deleted as soon as they were rumbled would suggest it's more likely to be the Government than an external agitator I would say.

Ah. Ok. Fecking hell. The way they stereotype the fake lefty doctor is absurdly over the top. Mad that a British person would come up with that.

 

[BobbyManc]

That’s bad but this is a bit misleading.




From very early on the UK stopped testing community cases altogether. That’s what’s still happening now, right? Everyone was told to assume they have the virus and self-isolate if they have symptoms. False negatives will have zero effect on community spread so long as you’re not testing people in the community.

Different story for HCWs, mind you. False negatives for them is a disaster, as they will return to work sooner than they should. Then infect colleagues/patients.

How is it misleading? The government is telling labs to use tests that they know are faulty, with a failure rate up to 25%. The part you quote literally says they will have sent people home with a ‘negative’ when they in fact had the virus in up to 25% of the cases. That is the worst scenario imaginable.

 

[worldgonemad]

I asked earlier in the thread how accurate the tests were . It seems there is no 100 % accurate test available . Also outside factors can affect the accurracy of the tests . The government have been very open about the difficulties in getting the right kinds of tests and also accurate tests . People seem fixated by total numbers of tests , in each country . do you know what the accuracy rates are in each country ?

 

[FireballXL5]

As far as I can work out, we can’t tell for certain whether the Tories are behind this or external agitators (e.g. Russia) but it’s nasty stuff all the same. The way they’ve ladled on all the progressive stereotypes so heavily (fake doctor is disabled, non-binary AND transitioning) makes me think of the St Petersberg bots but feck knows really.

Just reference the Russia report Boris promised to publish after the election.......oh wait

 

[TheGame]

Is there no low to which this lot won't stoop? (read the thread)

Digusting and worrying if true.

 

[lynchie]

How is it misleading? The government is telling labs to use tests that they know are faulty, with a failure rate up to 25%. The part you quote literally says they will have sent people home with a ‘negative’ when they in fact had the virus in up to 25% of the cases. That is the worst scenario imaginable.

That 25% figure directly contradicts another source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-concerns-about-quality-of-uk-covid-19-tests

So I don't think we should accept it at face value, especially since the Guardian article actually contains some test data, rather than some anonymous guy's finger in the air estimate.

editted: Sorry, didn't read that other bit properly. Anyway, still think the 25% is open to question.

 

[Sweet Square]

I’ve seen momentum types jump all over that John Crace headline a few times know. Obviously to score points on Twitter you only need to share headlines. Nobody ever reads the articles linked. So job’s a good ‘un for retweets and likes regardless.

Old man yells at cloud

If they did read the article they’d realise it’s his usual (and funny) Tory bashing in which he concludes that Hancock might be marginally less of a feck up than the rest of half-wits he works with. Hardly a ringing endorsement.

That worked out well.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

A lockdown was never going to work in America, you guys have too many crazies over there.

It’s also too big.
it’s also unnecessary to apply blanket rules there

Imagine if every European Country had to apply the same rules at the same time.

Trump is a weapon. But America should be perfectly capable of handling this.

States should flatten curves as best they can, apply restrictions at the right times, the federal government should be able to move equipment around to meet peak needs.

The whole country does not need to be on identical lockdown. That results in what we’re seeing. Measures too severe, too early, that aren’t tolerated.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Old man yells at cloud


That worked out well.

Feck. “A few times know”. Damn you for quoting me. That typo’s gonna haunt me.

 

[BobbyManc]

That 25% figure directly contradicts another source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-concerns-about-quality-of-uk-covid-19-tests

Which also includes

So I don't think we should accept it at face value, especially since the Guardian article actually contains some test data, rather than some anonymous guy's finger in the air estimate.

The article I linked never said there is a problem with positive results, so there is no contradiction with the Guardian saying the same thing. In fact the Guardian article corroborates OpenDemoracy’s report by making clear that there is a problem with false negatives. OpenDemocracy cite someone who claims the figure is as high as 25%. And if you read the article it is not a finger in the air estimate but a pathologist with knowledge of the current NiS review into the test. He/She is not guessing. And of course they’ll be anonymous, that’s a disingenuous way to try and discredit the allegation.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

The Journalist is claiming that someone within the department of health and social care created lots of "sockpuppet" twitter accounts and was using them to spread misinformation about how herd immunity was still a relevant response/ anti media / anti clap for NHS to sow dischord and create confusion.

When he went to DHSC with allegations, all of the twitter accounts were simultaneously deleted, confirming they were not individuals expressing their personal views, however cranky.

The Journalist claims to have proof they were all created by one individual within the DHSC rather than some Russian bot factory.

If this is true then it is truly explosive and would lead to resignations. Some have speculated that this is a tactic that Dominic Cummings has used before but the journalist has not made that claim.

Thanks for the explanation.

 

[arnie_ni]

Is there no low to which this lot won't stoop? (read the thread)

Its like something out of the tv show homeland in series 6

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Bollocks by the way.
2 islands on the other side of the World to where it all kicked off in Italy and we all realised that shit had gotten real. We know for sure that Italy seeded Europe.

And you’re another that completely ignores the point on Malmö and Gothenburg because you’ve already decided lockdown was the only way. You can’t explain Belgium and you can’t explain Malmö.
You have no response to the Belgium and Sweden graphs mirroring each other despite one going into lockdown on 18th March and the other not doing it.

The idea that all Scandinavian countries started on the same point is so idiotic is hard to comprehend. If they did, once again, why is Malmö in Sweden doing miles better than Copenhagen in Denmark @Wibble, a city it shares a fecking bridge with? Maybe this time, leave your bias at the door and really have a real think.

Sometimes the obvious answer is right there in front of you, Stockholm, much like Belgium, had a shit load of the virus ”within it’s borders” in mid-March, no doubt due to half term timing. That’s why it has almost 1000 deaths, and the county in Sweden worst hit (cases per 100,000 citizens)... Sörmland, also had half term in week 9.
Malmö had a nicely timed half term and has much less virus in it’s City than Copenhagen in mid-March.
I mean, at this point that is verging almost on common sense.
If this isn’t the case, I full expect you to give me any reply as to why Gothenburg and Malmö are doing so well, if lockdown was the only way.

The only thing worse than your weird twisting of a scenario to fit your narrative... is the fact you repeatedly tell others not to.

Stop banging on about the bridge. It normally transports somewhere around 100,000 people a day I believe. Taken a look at the webcam recently? I’ll save you the job and tell you it’s almost empty. You can’t get in your car and go there now. It’s not some outlier that should provide direct comparison between Cities on either side of it. Leave it alone. It’s noise.

Also... stop signing off posts with “This will be my last post for a week until there is more data”... unless you’re actually going to stick to it. It’s dramatic nonsense and your pledge lasts about 15 minutes.

 

[do.ob]

I asked earlier in the thread how accurate the tests were . It seems there is no 100 % accurate test available . Also outside factors can affect the accurracy of the tests . The government have been very open about the difficulties in getting the right kinds of tests and also accurate tests . People seem fixated by total numbers of tests , in each country . do you know what the accuracy rates are in each country ?

The German test supposedly has 99.x% accuracy, assuming proper handling of the swab, etc.

 

[Sweet Square]

Feck. “A few times know”. Damn you for quoting me. That typo’s gonna haunt me.

''There is no sorrow in the world that a hot both wouldn't help, just a little.''

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

@Regulus Arcturus Black

Worth pointing out when people quote Belgium's 6000 deaths that their figures count all deaths, including those outside hospital settings which many countries don't count. Unless Sweden also do so the comparison figure is less than half that 6000.

Don’t make him battle with common sense.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It’s also too big.
it’s also unnecessary to apply blanket rules there

Imagine if every European Country had to apply the same rules at the same time.

Trump is a weapon. But America should be perfectly capable of handling this.

States should flatten curves as best they can, apply restrictions at the right times, the federal government should be able to move equipment around to meet peak needs.

The whole country does not need to be on identical lockdown. That results in what we’re seeing. Measures too severe, too early, that aren’t tolerated.

That’s a good point. Haven’t the states been allowed a lot of autonomy though? I don’t think there has been any attempt at a national one size fits all lockdown. Or has there?