Try comparing it to Ireland who has .1 difference in ICU capacity. Let’s see how the UK response stacks up then. It’s not a pretty picture
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I've explained the difference between Holland and Belgium before. In Belgium, more than 70% of all deaths concerning Covid19 happen in nursing homes. Even people who aren't tested after their death are still counted in the statistics. This distorts the numbers massively. If 20 people die in a nursing home and there are some cases of Covid19 there, they are all counted as Covid19 patients, as we weren't able to test everyone before. Holland doesn't count those. If you would compare the actual confirmed Covid19 deaths (after tests) we have a 'better' mortality rate than Holland.
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Decent news from NHS England today. Due to the long weekend I thought there'd be a big rise in reported deaths, instead the opposite happened and they fell to 651 (-93) by 5pm yesterday. Gives some hope that we may well be just around or just past the peak. Let's hope tomorrow is similar.
Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. An unwelcome rise of 89 in reported cases today to 740. Still not the big increase in cases I thought would happen though. One more tiny data point that timorously suggests we might've already passed peak deaths and are beginning the long, slow, wobbly slide.
Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):
So. I was reading some article saying a mutation has been observed..
Any chance it keeps coming back like the flu and by coming back, I mean never goes away ... because it doesnt really have a "flu season" ?
Any chance it keeps coming back like the flu and by coming back, I mean never goes away ... because it doesnt really have a "flu season" ?
The odds of dying on a plane are 1 in 5 million, according to Google. Covid 19 kills 1 in 500 young people. That's 1000x the odds!
No, the worst case scenario would be hit if it killed minimum 1400+ people every day for a year without fail!
And that's not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
You're talking about the peak as if it were some unique point. It's just a point at which current numbers appear to be plateauing due to the measures in place. I keep seeing this misunderstanding everywhere, including the media. If you remove the measures after observing a reduction in the number of cases and deaths, then it's likely that you will see a rise again, hitting another peak.
For the record I completely appreciate the fact that economy will suffer, and that long-term lock down isn't sustainable.
I just simply can't see any solutions. I pretty much think we're "doomed" (to barrow the word from the complaints about doom-mongering in this thread).
Nah sorry, we shouldn’t ever accept the police getting to decide when journalists can and cannot report. I have no problem with them being required to carry a press ID or something, but one they’ve identified themselves and as long as they’re not breaking any laws, the police can mind their own fecking business.
But it's not up to you(Or the police) to decide what should and shouldn't be filmed, right ? He's well with his rights to film the arrest, now you can disagree that it wasn't of huge importance but that clearly wasn't the argument the police were making, they simply wanted him to stop the recording and go home.
Alternatively how about the officers let the person continue to film at a safe distance ? Rather than breaking the social distance they are suppose to be enforcing ? Which would have resulted in a safe outcome for both the officers and the journalist.
It was the officers who broke the socially distancing in order to try to stop him filming(In fact it seems they got out of their van to do this
). There was no need for them to do this as the guy filmed hadn't broken any laws.There's definitely an undercount going on. That's already beginning to show up in the difference between the official government Covid figures and the 6k increase in deaths registered by the ONS for the week ending 3rd April.
You're going off the worst case scenario assumption and then conclude that we're doomed. You're of course entitled to your opinion, but you'll end up in a depression if you wake up every day with those thoughts. I'm not one for blind optimism but come on, we're a few months into this pandemic, you've only felt the consequences of it for four weeks or so, yet you're already resigning to the fact that humanity is doomed... Well, sorry for not being that negative and thinking that there will be a viable solution for this shit or at least a way to co-exist with the virus.
I just want to own up and say how terribly wrong I was. I massively underestimated something I knew nothing about and I was beyond ignorant in assumptions and claims I made when this was all beginning.
I have no problem admitting I was wrong and using this as a lesson. I was wrong. I am sorry.
I hope somehow things return back to normality sooner rather then later but I just dont see it at the moment. Stay safe everyone.
I have no problem admitting I was wrong and using this as a lesson. I was wrong. I am sorry.
I hope somehow things return back to normality sooner rather then later but I just dont see it at the moment. Stay safe everyone.
Check out @laineydoyle on Twitter
she did a good job of laying bare a comparison between UK response and Ireland
she hit many notes that we were trying to convey to my wife’s elderly parents who live in the UK. It was like an alternative reality. In Ireland we were being told the seriousness and shutting down schools and St. paddy’s day. Meanwhile Boris was talking about shaking hands, washing hands and so on. My wife’s mum was planning trips to meet her friends in London, going to mass, going to m&s to buy a bunch of flowers. We’d be saying no, stay indoors and shed be telling us “but we are allowed to go out”. It’s what they were being told, and even when the messaging started it was confusing and unclear. People were literally waiting for the government to tell them and it wasn’t coming.
Concerts, football matches, Cheltenham, pubs, etc. Madness!
its all bad leadership and why the UK numbers are so ducked up compared to Ireland. Thousands have died because of the response.
I find it so bloody frustrating
she did a good job of laying bare a comparison between UK response and Ireland
she hit many notes that we were trying to convey to my wife’s elderly parents who live in the UK. It was like an alternative reality. In Ireland we were being told the seriousness and shutting down schools and St. paddy’s day. Meanwhile Boris was talking about shaking hands, washing hands and so on. My wife’s mum was planning trips to meet her friends in London, going to mass, going to m&s to buy a bunch of flowers. We’d be saying no, stay indoors and shed be telling us “but we are allowed to go out”. It’s what they were being told, and even when the messaging started it was confusing and unclear. People were literally waiting for the government to tell them and it wasn’t coming.
Concerts, football matches, Cheltenham, pubs, etc. Madness!
its all bad leadership and why the UK numbers are so ducked up compared to Ireland. Thousands have died because of the response.
I find it so bloody frustrating
What exactly is the worst case scenario? No vaccine for a while.. eventually infects 60%+ of the population.. kills several million. and then goes away..
Or keeps coming back with different strains, making no one immune and vaccines ineffective?
Or keeps coming back with different strains, making no one immune and vaccines ineffective?
You misread that. The worst case scenario was a reply to a particular comment.
The rest of my post wasn't underpinned by assuming the worst case scenario will happen.
Yet you still think we're doomed? Okay then, enjoy that thought, I guess. For all we know, we'll have a vaccine ready by spring and distributed on masse by next summer. I'd like to go from that thought right now. And the eventual truth will probably be somewhere in the middle, but I'd rather be positive right now than anything else.
Very enlightening discussion on Radio 5live earlier with Bill Gates wife.
Their foundation is funding research into a CV19 vaccine. And her view is 18 months at very best. And that assumes that it will work and be safe.
She sites Germany as being the 'Gold Standard' in terms of managing the virus.
And her view is that the world is going to have to live with this virus for a very long time to come.
She sees mass testing of the population as the only way to achieve that. And we are going to have to accept that a level of deaths, amongst the most susceptible of the population will inevitably occur.
She rejects the herd immunity issue because of potential mutations of the virus.
I got the distinct impression that she is not a big fan of Donald Trump, in particular his decision to withhold funding to the WHO.
Very smart woman.
Their foundation is funding research into a CV19 vaccine. And her view is 18 months at very best. And that assumes that it will work and be safe.
She sites Germany as being the 'Gold Standard' in terms of managing the virus.
And her view is that the world is going to have to live with this virus for a very long time to come.
She sees mass testing of the population as the only way to achieve that. And we are going to have to accept that a level of deaths, amongst the most susceptible of the population will inevitably occur.
She rejects the herd immunity issue because of potential mutations of the virus.
I got the distinct impression that she is not a big fan of Donald Trump, in particular his decision to withhold funding to the WHO.
Very smart woman.
Yep absolutely, you only have to look at the numbers of people dying in nursing homes to see that the numbers being reported aren't a full picture of the crisis we have going on here.
Rise in deaths toady at 870
What exactly does doomed mean?
There is still a Syria, still a Libya, still a Palestine...
Hell, my country lost a huge chunk of population WW I and we are still here.
I don't know if you are originally from England, but if you are, the part of the problem might be that you in the West have been sheltered for too long. Other parts of world have gone through far worse things in recent history and are still here.
But it's not up to you(Or the police) to decide what should and shouldn't be filmed, right ? He's well with his rights to film the arrest, now you can disagree that it wasn't of huge importance but that clearly wasn't the argument the police were making, they simply wanted him to stop the recording and go home.
Alternatively how about the officers let the person continue to film at a safe distance ? Rather than breaking the social distance they are suppose to be enforcing ? Which would have resulted in a safe outcome for both the officers and the journalist.
It was the officers who broke the socially distancing in order to try to stop him filming(In fact it seems they got out of their van to do this
the public are expected to be at home; if they're in a park they should be exercising. so i don't really have a problem with the police asking some random guy with an iPhone out standing around filming to move along. how do they know he's a journalist? basically this means we can all just go about our business and if questioned by police use the journalist card.
why should the police allow (to them) some random guy to stand around and film on a phone? we should be indoors or exercising. he was clearly not. now, if he was able to prove he was a journalist, that's a different story. but he didn't do that in the video.
15k daily tests at this stage is pretty bad. Can see Hancock doing a final press conference on April 29th and then being locked away for a month like Priti Patel has been.
He'll find some small print that said he really meant end of May when he said end of April for 100k tests a day.
He'll find some small print that said he really meant end of May when he said end of April for 100k tests a day.
Definitely true. I'm not sure what Ireland is like but it's very typical of the UK to wait until the goverment says jump. Loads of people at work were sensibly saying distancing was coming and that we should adjust to working from home early to prepare but the bosses wouldn't take action until Boris stood on Mount Sinai holding his commandments. It was also seen in a lot of everyday areas too - including noticably the pubs the Friday before lockdown came.
Then there were the parks afterwards, like people couldn't take a frigging common sense approach to avoid overcrowding them.
It's frustrating, as you say.
the point is that future peaks (hopefully) won't be as bad because we will be in a better position by then, we will be testing more, we will be tracking and tracing better, we will have more ICU beds ready to be used, more ventilators. this first peak is being used (again, hopefully) to develop the processes so we're in a better position when the next peaks do take place. we're not doomed.
Yes, I think there would be a big spike in infections and deaths. What I'm saying is I think a lot of people don't really care if that's the case. People will call it selfish etc... , but there's definitely a limit to how long people will stop living their lives for. There will come a point when the majority will say "enough is enough", and it won't really be civil disobedience at that point...
On a side note, rather than suggesting we all have to become less and less natural/human in order to survive, I wish humanity would have a look at our relentless increase in population. We just plonk another Germany down every year and act all shocked at pollution, climate change, inequality, disease..
Actually that's a good thing to keep mind, yeah, I agree. I'm not worried really.
It's more that excessive positivity in situations like this makes uncomfortable.
She didn't though. It was very shallow comparison by an historian. These are some opinions from people actually working in relevant fields
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ided-comparison-uk-ireland-coronavirus-record
This seems to be gaining steam in conservative media circles
They have run the numbers for the case we were everyone gets treatment. The projected total number of deaths in that scenario was just under 700 deaths per day for a year, which is close to current numbers for the past few days.
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thanks. Yes there is some bits such as age of population and the difference in rural populations but the overall message I think was spot on. It ties in with what we were being told here a week or 2 before our friends and family in the Uk. I think that isn’t debatable. As one of the professors says himself
“Dr William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, said Doyle had made some good points, noting that he and many of his colleagues had been concerned about the UK’s early response to coronavirus, but cautioned that it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions”
You can social distance on a bike too.
I cycle from April - Nov/Dec and get the train from Dec-April. I tend to get sniffles from Dec - April. There could be a huge increase in cyclists though and then Geebs point stands for possible transmission from cyclists to others but still seems a lot more hygenic and health to use the bike.
I could see it being here for a long time but we learn to live with it until it dwindles away.
At the moment it strikes the balance of lethality and ability to spread. As more people get it and become immune, the ability to spread will naturally reduce, so it either weakens to adapt or it dies out.
I'm quite confident you can get at least some immunity from it too. After 2,000,000 infected, ~500k recoveries, if you didn't I'm sure we would have been able confirm at least one reinfection by now.
That's not even close to what I implied or said is it? Like I said personal responsibility. Was it necessary for that journalist to be following the police recording in that instance? No it wasn't. I said it isn't about the legality, its about adapting and using some common sense in these times. What usually happens when someone starts recording police and gets into an argument is that other people SURROUND and FOLLOW, which of course does wonders for social distancing. If those officers were being cnuts by mistreating that female or doing something that was worthy of being recorded by all means record. It was clearly a complete non event and that journalist clearly is the one that actually needs to "mind their own fecking business".
But it's not up to you(Or the police) to decide what should and shouldn't be filmed, right ? He's well with his rights to film the arrest, now you can disagree that it wasn't of huge importance but that clearly wasn't the argument the police were making, they simply wanted him to stop the recording and go home.
Alternatively how about the officers let the person continue to film at a safe distance ? Rather than breaking the social distance they are suppose to be enforcing ? Which would have resulted in a safe outcome for both the officers and the journalist.
It was the officers who broke the socially distancing in order to try to stop him filming(In fact it seems they got out of their van to do this
As above, completely missing the point, complete inability to recognise the use of common sense in these times. The journalist was following the officers, your behaviour effects others behaviour, that didn't need to become an incident.
And how exactly were the officers supposed to know he was a journalist? when they were in the vehicle. And even if he is one as claimed, the likelyhood of him carrying around his work ID whilst jogging is extremely low, how can this be verified by the officers.
Maybe i'm wrong but leaving your house during lockdown should be for exercise, buying food etc, no?. I dont remember the bit where you're meant to follow officers around recording them for merely a routine arrest. Where do you draw the line? Presumably by the logic youre inferring because its technically legal, people should basically be out and about following and filming officers carrying out their duties just because they can and officers should not say anything and let it continue. All massively helpful during this time of a global pandemic.
If those are England's figures then that would be 1 in 500 positive tests, ala 1 in 500 who need hospital treatment.
Also if the testing of the Valencia squad was anything to go by (35% tested positive despite not a single member displaying symptoms) then a lot more people just have it without even knowing than people think.
Maybe I overshoot it a bit by comparing the odds to a plane crash but the chances of a young person dying even if they get the virus (getting the virus in anyway not just hospital admissions) is beyond miniscule and it's only a matter of time before they start playing percentages, even the elderly will eventually as a fair number I imagine would prefer one month of freedom as opposed to potentially their last months/years in sevee restrictions if it ultimately came down to Hobson's choice. For another example a freind of mine has cystic fibrosis but despite that has acted like the rest of us for years, his logic is he'd rather die in a blaze of glory then fizzle out (which in itself would almost certainly be a reliteve young age if not earlier) restricting himself, he's being sensible right now but if it ultimately came to a decent amount of freedom at the risk of it being short term or long term restrictions at this level (which will take sizeable chunk of what life he has left anyway) I know exactly what he will choose and I'll take a stab in the dark and say that he's very much not an outliner.
The government need to be working night and day to work out a sustainable strategy that can allow for something of a functioning society at worst, this is truly the part where they earn their money. That's mainly why restrictions will be gradually eased, that way we will get some sort of idea at just what wriggle room we have (ie we may be managing well after stage 1 and 2 but when it gets to stage 3 there's a concerning spike so we need to revert back to stage 2 for now).
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On the last point, I'm not sure what you can do about people having children but I think there will definitely be a re-think about how many things are done.
We can all see the drop in pollution/CO2 emissions etc and I can't see everything going back to the way it was.
Certainly, there'll be less mass commuting to city centres to sit in offices 5 days a week which will ease congestion/pollution and the ever increasing growth of major cities.
I'll be strongly be pushing for working from home 3/4 days a week, depending on the project, once this is done.
Well said. Common sense and basically being a bit fecking reasonable is what’s needed for us all to get through this without killing each other. Gobshites trying to prove a point, just because they can, are incredibly unhelpful.
Would be so fun if this all proves to be only a prelude to WW 3.
Fun is not the word I am looking for, but you get what I mean.
standing still doesn't sound like exercising to me. standing and filming definitely not. are you saying we should all just ignore the government advice in the middle of this pandemic?