SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I clearly mean you can’t get rid of this with a lockdown. Nothing more. Although China maybe can/did in different circumstances. You’ll see I made this point many times that China can lock it’s people down because it was one City and my feck, could they enforce it. I’ll repeat, that will never work in the UK when it’s countrywide.

You can absolutely slow the spread though. Even if it’s a half arsed lockdown it’ll do that it appears.
I think just 50% taking it seriously will have a big enough effect so I wouldn’t personally be too worried about seeing too many people outdoors.

It's the whole Hubei province that was locked down. It's not a small area. It's not just a city. Wuhan was first city but it eventually caused the whole province to be in lockdown.
 
The most concerning thing about this pandemic is how readily people will embrace authoritarianism.

As long as they feel good about themselves.
 
It is mostly the American and the British press who are trying to create news about China. There is a good article about two days back in the New York Times about the timeline in China and it does agree to what the Chinese government is saying and also more importantly what happened actually. How the system failed. There is no logical way they could lock down a city in that short time. UK has still not locked down and now it is April and all the world knew about this at least from January.
Care to show me a link to article if you remember? Would like to take a look at it.
 
I've heard of countries that have fully locked down early, close their borders - stopped people completely leaving their house even for food and have essential food like meats/vegetables/fish delivered to them by certain people covering certain postcodes daily.(Sri lanka)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ne...l-goods-to-homes-as-cases-rise-to-2121793.amp

Whilst it may obviously be hard in the UK - it shows how layed back it's been taken in my opinion. Took ages for the airports and the schools to close and arguably the lockdown is more a personal decision you make than anything strict imposed on you.

You will risk defiance and revolt in some countries if such policies are implemented. People in the NE US are already chafing... You see more people saying "feck it" and going back to their normal routine.
 
The coronavirus has been a far deadlier threat in New Orleans than the rest of the United States, with a per-capita death rate much higher than in New York City. Doctors, public health officials and available data say the Big Easy’s high levels of obesity and related ailments may be part of the problem.

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health...th-rate-7-times-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor
Not sure about that link...? The article I posted a while back on the same subject was worded almost exactly the same, but with different ratios. That headline says a death rate 7 times that of NY, while everywhere else it says 2-3.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor-idUSKBN21K1B0
 
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Oslo, Norway; today :

72334866.jpg

Unbelievable.

 
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I don't believe in their numbers because 1. their numbers are reported by the Chinese state media who wants to propagandize their "progress" and "victory" over the virus to the world and 2. they have responded really late to containing the virus, however strict their current measures are - Wuhan wasn't locked down until at least a month after first cases were reported there around Nov-Dec 19.

Hell, I don't even know if OUR numbers are all that accurate due to unreported cases that might've been passed off as common flu.

Despite that, however, I do believe their number of active cases, whatever it might be, have peaked and they've mitigated the worst of the crisis for now, strictly because of their draconian measures to keep people inside (e.g. welding people in their homes, something that would never happen in western countries)

Forget china. Look at south korea, japan, singapore. Good government can mitigate the outbreak.

It's not wizardry. Their government instruct, citizen follow, results shows.

Nobody has the magic formula, it's just a collection of small things done right.

Ps: there are reporters all over wuhan, satelite imagery, live tictoc, correspondence from tourist and expats from wuhan, those lockdowns are real. There are various embassy as well. You'd think if the situation is somehow much worse than reported there would be more news from all over the world not only from usa and uk. US has been itching to blame China, it wont be hard for cia to use their satelite and get a hard proof of mass grave of millions bodies lying around. Seriously, what do you think happened in China? Do you honestly think millions died and they open the city today and the rest of the province acts like nothing happened?

Till this very day, the US government and many in the journalism industry haven’t learned the lesson.

In face of an epidemic, let scientists, and epidemiologists answer the questions, devise plans, and predict outcomes. All others should step aside. There is no political, racial, ideological or religious room for interpretations of a virus because a virus only recognizes molecular receptors regardless all else above.

Politicians should do what they can to enforce recommendations from experts, and journalists should do what they can to combat misinformation. At least, that’s what China did.

WHO after investigation said China’s numbers were reliable. Head of Canadian CDC said the numbers in China were correct. Most of scientists in the world, including those at Lancet trust China’s numbers.

China was the first country to report on a daily basis of the statistics of covid19. If the infection rate and fatality rate obtained from these numbers, and the curves set by China can be corroborated by other countries’ statistics set afterwards, then China’s numbers have scientific grounds.

Chinese scientists have been constantly updating their research results of covid19, publish them on papers and share them to the world. But these scientists in China can only do so much to share it to other scientists through science journals and WHO. Whether their findings are relayed to the public of other countries is out of China’s scope of responsibilities.

The world is properly warned. Weather you heed it or not depends on your government and media’s willingness to follow scientific advice which should not be given by intelligence communities, nor politicians, nor journalists.

MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow has done a good job interviewing experts about the how they view the epidemics. And CNN is doing fact checking of White House coronavirus briefings. These are all commendable efforts. But not enough.

Still, instead of listening to and believing what scientists have to say, many people would rather tune in to some citizen journalists and reports of dubious sources. Any rumor that might prove that China is lying feed their cravings for lunacy. Like the rumor that China’s telecom has lost millions of subscriptions hence millions in China are suspected to have died. Thousands of more urns appeared in Wuhan than previously reported covid19 related death count.

In a conversation with my wife, I told her of these rumors circulating in the western media as proofs that China was under reporting numbers, she bursted into laughter immediately and asked as if people actually believe that. I told her yes, as a matter of fact, millions do.

The internet follows mob psychology, especially in times of crisis and disasters. This is why every time there is a disaster in China, rumors abound. And every time, Chinese social media platforms unite to fight against misinformation. But not so much in the US.

There are some anti misinformation mechanisms led by google and twitter. But when the White House and major news outlets in the US are leading the charge to spread misinformation, there is little you can do about it.

The Trump administration is blaming everyone but themselves. They blame China, blame CDC, blame blue state governors, blame Obama. Only China doesn’t have a domestic voice to defend itself. So China is the easy target.

The intelligence community shouldn’t be doing this job. CDC staffs should be doing it. But Trump slashed its China office. Oops!

So again, US intelligence community stepped up just like when they were finding WMDs in Iraq. Last time, Collin Powell waved a magic bottle of Tide as proofs of the existence of WMD in Iraq. This time, it’s a quote from an unnamed source revealing the gist of a classified report unable to be disclosed to the public. And people buy it.

What a crazy world we live in today.
 
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Forget china. Look at south korea, japan, singapore. Good government can mitigate the outbreak.

It's not wizardry. Their government instruct, citizen follow, results shows.

Nobody has the magic formula, it's just a collection of small things done right.

Ps: there are reporters all over wuhan, satelite imagery, live tictoc, correspondence from tourist and expats from wuhan, those lockdowns are real. There are various embassy as well. You'd think if the situation is somehow much worse than reported there would be more news from all over the world not only from usa and uk. US has been itching to blame China, it wont be hard for cia to use their satelite and get a hard proof of mass grave of millions bodies lying around. Seriously, what do you think happened in China? Do you honestly think millions died and they open the city today and the rest of the province acts like nothing happened?

Actually the gold standard is Taiwan based on results through the Singapore gov't has been generous with giving out masks for free.


 
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The most concerning thing about this pandemic is how readily people will embrace authoritarianism.

As long as they feel good about themselves.

Seriously, wtf? This isn't about 'embracing authoritarianism' , it's about staying alive.
 
It's the whole Hubei province that was locked down. It's not a small area. It's not just a city. Wuhan was first city but it eventually caused the whole province to be in lockdown.

China have a strict communist regime and the World's biggest military though Foxy, so that's nothing for them. The logistics elsewhere will always be extremely hard to enforce, I'd argue impossible.

The point anyway is that people shouldn't get too worked up about people being outside as outdoor activities do not seem to be a huge problem when tight large gatherings are severely reduced. Unless of course I'm missing some extremely important evidence here?
 
You should google translate this one @Prometheus: https://www.aftonbladet.se/debatt/a/6jRPz0/kd-visa-solidaritet-med-drabbade-i-jarva

Another article criticising the Swedish response to the Järva area in Stockholm. You got this completely wrong here when you suggested I was "blaming" the immigrant population when it was the exact opposite. Sweden have done nowhere near enough to protect this area.

Important part of the article:

Ebba Busch's point is that trust in society fails at Järvabor, which could have caused the spread of infection. But if she had wanted to take the matter seriously, other factors might have been made visible. For example, most of Järvabor works in Stockholm's public transport, in home service, elderly care, in grocery stores, etc. when many others can work from home.
In order to reduce the spread of infection, the congestion and tight living in this area must also be reduced. Today, many hotel rooms are vacant. Stockholm's majority, with the Christian Democrats at the forefront, should explore the possibility of renting hotel rooms for over-crowded elderly and people in other risk groups. This of course if infection protection experts see benefits from the proposal.

For many who live in Järva, it is not possible to follow the advice of the Public Health Authority and to isolate themselves and not cross the generational boundaries. Of course, we hope that the city's government and the capacity that exists there will - and will - help with this.

Much will need to be evaluated after this pandemic.

So Sweden have advised people to isolate the elderly, but those who live with elderly and have zero chance to work from home have been given zero solutions on how to do that. It's horrific in all honesty. Using Ebba's "trust in society fails" in that area excuse is utter bollocks, how can you isolate Grandma if you live with her?
So not locking down society and at the same time not offering a solution to those who live in with elderly parents and grandparents is a modern day equivalent of throwing them to the wolves. I really like the idea of using our empty hotels etc.
 
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The coronavirus has been a far deadlier threat in New Orleans than the rest of the United States, with a per-capita death rate much higher than in New York City. Doctors, public health officials and available data say the Big Easy’s high levels of obesity and related ailments may be part of the problem.

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health...th-rate-7-times-new-yorks-obesity-is-a-factor

i live near New Orleans, wanna know the reason? Mardi Gras, it was jam packed.
 
Development of the Corona deaths per 100.000 inhabitants since January in various European countries:

 
Thanks but I still don’t quite understand how reproductive ability of a virus is something humans can change (other than immunity). Wouldn’t the coronavirus still have the ability to infect an average of X number of people (by way of how contagious it is) regardless of how many people are in lockdown? How does that get suppressed?

This number describes the number of people, on average, who will catch a disease from a single infected person. If that number can be brought down to below 1.0, this signals that an epidemic will decline.
You can read more about the factors used to calculate this number in the link below. The R0 is not just the Virus itself but also how we deal with it, that means the number lowers when we put restrictions in society and contact between people lessens, for example.

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number
 
The most concerning thing about this pandemic is how readily people will embrace authoritarianism.

As long as they feel good about themselves.

Agreed. It's terrifying how enthusiastically people are giving up their freedoms for a little safety.
 
In my hometown, in Russia, a woman killed her partner by stabbing him through the heart whilst they were self isolating. He died instantly. Needless to say, there was copious amount of vodka involved. I'm kind of desensitised when it happens in Russia as opposed to UK.

If domestic violence wasn't bad enough in the motherland already... :(
 

Ok, let me preface this by saying that JRM is a cnut.
But the article talks about how the investment group plans to acquire businesses who’s valuation has dropped, but will bounce back. Isn’t that a pretty standard investment tactic?
It also goes on to say they’ll be investing in hospitals in Brazil and mask technology. Companies that probably need a cash injection right now.
Seriously misleading title imho
 
Agreed. It's terrifying how enthusiastically people are giving up their freedoms for a little safety.
Madness isn't it.

In fact, this is the right time for a worldwide people's movement! Let's all occupy the streets!
 
I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".
 
Agreed. It's terrifying how enthusiastically people are giving up their freedoms for a little safety.
More terrifying how many people are being brainwashed into believing lockdown "for aslong as it takes" is the only way.

Now don't get me wrong I actually agree that the lockdown is the right thing currently to ease the spread and the pressure on the NHS but it's not viable for any longer than six weeks and even that's pushing it. We will come back out to a third world country if some people get their way.
 
More terrifying how many people are being brainwashed into believing lockdown "for aslong as it takes" is the only way.

Now don't get me wrong I actually agree that the lockdown is the right thing currently to ease the spread and the pressure on the NHS but it's not viable for any longer than six weeks and even that's pushing it. We will come back out to a third world country if some people get their way.

You do realise lockdown isn’t just to ease the pressure on NHS it’s also about saving lives right?
 
I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".

100%
 
I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".

Prof Neil Ferguson, the lead modeller at Imperial College London, has suggested it could be up to two-thirds. Problem is, those 2/3's would be spread out over 365 days rather than in a month or two.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654

_111545795_optimised-mortality_rates-nc.png


Over a long term, all of them.

:lol:

Well played.
 
You do realise lockdown isn’t just to ease the pressure on NHS it’s also about saving lives right?

I totally agree that any death is a tragedy and we should do our utmost to preserve life. This is also not about wanting to go back to the pub or go to the cinema. I could quite easily shelve all those unimportant things.

This is about having a life to lead after this (which in turn will save thousands of lives in itself due to significantly more people being able to feed their kids) 60% of business will fail if this goes on longer than short term. Do you even consider what world that would leave us with?

I have 2 neices who will miss out on a significant part of their education. Do you understand the implications of this further down the line?

Does anyone really understand the mental health aspect?

It's all very well talking about funding an NHS, but if no one can pay tax then who is going to fund it? Another country who has the same problem?

People seem to think that without lockdown until there is a vaccine that this disease is going to kill millions,l. It's simply not true and never has been. Yes, you get isolated sad cases and I feel the greatest sympathy

At some point caution becomes counter productive and won't only fail to protect the NHS and save lives, but do the total opposite.
 
And so what in effect is happening, is that, and this is obviously a very cold way of looking at things, but what's happening is that the economy is potentially being destroyed to prolong the lives of a few by months.
 
I wonder what percentage of deaths reported as being due to Corona virus are in fact deaths that would have happened anyway, but which Corona has "merely sped up".
nearly 90% of deaths are over +65 I believe, so most likely they would only live on average 10-15 years more depending on the country. But I don't think that question is fair or we would never fight for any +65 as it would "merely slow down" their deaths every time that they would receive any health treatment.
 
And so what in effect is happening, is that, and this is obviously a very cold way of looking at things, but what's happening is that the economy is potentially being destroyed to prolong the lives of a few by months.

No.

The death rate goes up and lots of people who normally wouldn't die this year will due to not being able to receive the correct treatment. This includes plenty of people between 40-60. All this social distancing is about allowing the health services time to give everyone the chance they deserve.

I do agree on lockdown though, as much as I'm hated in here for it. As far as I'm aware Denmark and Germany have flattened the curve without telling people to stay inside their homes.
 
nearly 90% of deaths are over +65 I believe, so most likely they would only live on average 10-15 years more depending on the country. But I don't think that question is fair or we would never fight for any +65 as it would "merely slow down" their deaths every time that they would receive any health treatment.
They might live 10-15 years longer if they were completely healthy before the caught the virus. If they weren't, then Corona or Flu or frankly in some cases, perhaps even a really bad cold would have potentially had the same outcome.
 
No.

The death rate goes up and lots of people who normally wouldn't die this year will due to not being able to receive the correct treatment. This includes plenty of people between 40-60. All this social distancing is about allowing the health services time to give everyone the chance they deserve.
Yep, appreciate that, but I have seen daily death counts in the last 3 years for NL in the month of March and so far there's no difference. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two weeks and how the numbers are then.
 
I totally agree that any death is a tragedy and we should do our utmost to preserve life. This is also not about wanting to go back to the pub or go to the cinema. I could quite easily shelve all those unimportant things.

This is about having a life to lead after this (which in turn will save thousands of lives in itself due to significantly more people being able to feed their kids) 60% of business will fail if this goes on longer than short term. Do you even consider what world that would leave us with?

I have 2 neices who will miss out on a significant part of their education. Do you understand the implications of this further down the line?

Does anyone really understand the mental health aspect?

It's all very well talking about funding an NHS, but if no one can pay tax then who is going to fund it? Another country who has the same problem?

People seem to think that without lockdown until there is a vaccine that this disease is going to kill millions,l. It's simply not true and never has been. Yes, you get isolated sad cases and I feel the greatest sympathy

At some point caution becomes counter productive and won't only fail to protect the NHS and save lives, but do the total opposite.
This is exactly what I am afraid of. More so than I am of the virus itself, for myself or my elderly parents.
 
Yep, appreciate that, but I have seen daily death counts in the last 3 years for NL in the month of March and so far there's no difference. It will be interesting to see what happens in the next two weeks and how the numbers are then.

As I say, if you avoid Italy and Spain situations, however you manage it then your are saving as many lives as possible. That’s surely the only important thing here.

What I find disturbing is the amount of people delighted for Derbyshire police trying to drone shame people for being out in the Peak District or getting angry about seeing people outside. It appears to be losing sight of what we are trying to achieve here.
 
No.

The death rate goes up and lots of people who normally wouldn't die this year will due to not being able to receive the correct treatment. This includes plenty of people between 40-60. All this social distancing is about allowing the health services time to give everyone the chance they deserve.

I do agree on lockdown though, as much as I'm hated in here for it. As far as I'm aware Denmark and Germany have flattened the curve without telling people to stay inside their homes.

Germany closed down non essential businesses, told people to stay at home and forbade gatherings of more than two people. Basically at the same time most other European countries did it.
 
I do agree on lockdown though, as much as I'm hated in here for it. As far as I'm aware Denmark and Germany have flattened the curve without telling people to stay inside their homes.
We're staying at home as well, only essential movement is allowed. Schools, Pubs, Shops are closed, same as everywhere else.

I agree that we can't be in lockdown for more than 4-6 weeks. Destroying the economy is at one point just too big a price. I expect that the discussion about tracking and isolating people similar to what South Korea and China did will get louder and louder. It's already there to some degree, but for now there's too much resistance to allow that kind of invasion into private and medical data. Sadly I believe it'll change once the damage for the economy becomes too big. I'm much more scared of that development than of the virus itself.