SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Arruda]

[/QUOTE]

Does the same test for the virus confirm that somebody who has recovered from it had the virus?

@Arruda

It shouldn't, from what understand. Hence one of the importances of mass testings in my opinion. It's a test that searches formthe virus' RNA and amplify it, so it should find nothing if the virus has been eliminsted.

A test that looked for antibodies against the virus would allow you to know who has been exposed and is now immune to it. In some cases it can even dostonguish between active disease and previous exposure.

 

[Pexbo]

My exams in May are cancelled now. Possibly moving to an online assessment which seems pointless as everyone is clearly going to be conferring.

 

[jojojo]

Anyone got any tips on how to get hold of paracetamol? Haven't been any for days now in our supermarkets. If you get up and go at 6am has anyone been getting any? I must stress these aren't for me either but for my parents.

The expensive brands like Lemsip and lemsip capsules are still in some shops - check the branded product labels and you can find paracetamol.

Some chemists have them online, but their delivery dates are stretching all the time.

 

[senorgregster]

It shouldn't, from what understand. Hence one of the importances of mass testings in my opinion. It's a test that searches formthe virus' RNA and amplify it, so it should find nothing if the virus has been eliminsted.

A test that looked for antibodies against the virus would allow you to know who has been exposed and is now immune to it. In some cases it can even dostonguish between active disease and previous exposure.
[/QUOTE]
I'm nowhere near familiar enough with the hep b test and similar tests where they do this. I assume there's some cut value assigned (similar to how we do it with cancer tests) for who is considered immune and who is not? And that cut value is likely determined by years of knowledge and follow up. Going to be tough to determine that on the fly, especially if this thing comes back in a different form each year.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

I'll probably get flamed for this, but just an idea...

Assumptions;

- if you get it once you can't get it again
- Virtually zero chance we get a vaccine rolled out for 18months+
- 70%+ of us are getting this in the next two years anyway

Some sweeping assumptions there but If they are correct, and you are healthy and under 30 with the ability to work from home/self-isolate - doesn't it make sense to just get the virus to help us move closer to herd immunity?

If I was in that demographic and it was an option I'd consider it just so to decrease the chance I pass it to my folks within the next couple of years (and I can visit them without worrying about exposing them).

tldr young people should take one for the team and have Coronavirus parties

"Heard immunity" isn't immediate, it builds up over a number of seasons. There is no evidence that Coronavirus' is a once and done virus like the chicken pox or the mumps.

 

[Zlatan 7]

If my grandparents are self isolating, what is the best way to drop their shopping off to them?
Pointless me wearing gloves all around supermarket and driving to theirs? Should they wear gloves to get the bags and unpack shopping? Obviously wash after they’ve unpacked but wouldn’t the virus still be present in everything I’ve bought?
Do I have to leave it in their porch and leave and then them come out get it when I leave?

Bit of a minefield

 

[UweBein]

Finding the self isolation advice a bit vague. If you've got just a bit of a cough and no fever but a tight chest and breathing heavy is that supposed to be self isolation?

From what I've read it starts with a fever in most cases?

You are describing my everyday condition; no joke.

But yeah, if you normally do not feel that way, then self isolation might be an option.

 

[senorgregster]

The allergy season is not helping matters with symptoms. But it has to be best to be overly careful.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

If my grandparents are self isolating, what is the best way to drop their shopping off to them?
Pointless me wearing gloves all around supermarket and driving to theirs? Should they wear gloves to get the bags and unpack shopping? Obviously wash after they’ve unpacked but wouldn’t the virus still be present in everything I’ve bought?
Do I have to leave it in their porch and leave and then them come out get it when I leave?

Bit of a minefield

I did some grocery shopping for a co-worker while he was quarantining. Just buy the groceries, knock on the door and leave them outside.

 

[onemanarmy]

The allergy season is not helping matters with symptoms. But it has to be best to be overly careful.

True. I always have a cough this season, my girlfriend too, and she is always short of breath.

 

[RobinLFC]

If my grandparents are self isolating, what is the best way to drop their shopping off to them?
Pointless me wearing gloves all around supermarket and driving to theirs? Should they wear gloves to get the bags and unpack shopping? Obviously wash after they’ve unpacked but wouldn’t the virus still be present in everything I’ve bought?
Do I have to leave it in their porch and leave and then them come out get it when I leave?

Bit of a minefield

I'd say wash your hands before you go shopping, go about your business as usual (wear gloves if you really wanna be cautious), then drop it off at their door. Step a few metres back, chat while they pick it up, let them unpack the stuff and say that they thoroughly wash their hands after they've unpacked everything, and specifically not touch their face throughout the process.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Not sure about the UK but in Ireland they've said to self-isolate now if you've any cold or flu symptons. Worth remembering that even if you transmit a cold or flu to someone it could lower their immune system if they get it too which would prove fatal for some.

I also read an AMA with a doctor who works for our national health service today who basically said to stay indoors anyway and only leave to get essential services, and if you are outside exercising or walking, stay the feck away from people.

That doctor is spot on. I’m honestly surprised that this needs to be pointed out to people. It’s basic fecking common sense.

 

[Arruda]

I'm nowhere near familiar enough with the hep b test and similar tests where they do this. I assume there's some cut value assigned (similar to how we do it with cancer tests) for who is considered immune and who is not? And that cut value is likely determined by years of knowledge and follow up. Going to be tough to determine that on the fly, especially if this thing comes back in a different form each year.

I'm massively simplifying, but it's not about cut-off values, more about type of antibody the body generates. IgM correlates more with active disease, IgG correlates woth previous exposure.

In general terms.

 

[Volumiza]

Yeah you know me!

 

[Massive Spanner]

That doctor is spot on. I’m honestly surprised that this needs to be pointed out to people. It’s basic fecking common sense.

it's still not really happening though. I drove past Blanch center yesterday, loads of people walking in and out. I know there's a Dunnes in there but I didn't see many shopping bags on them.

 

[Zlatan 7]

I'd say wash your hands before you go shopping, go about your business as usual (wear gloves if you really wanna be cautious), then drop it off at their door. Step a few metres back, chat while they pick it up, let them unpack the stuff and say that they thoroughly wash their hands after they've unpacked everything, and specifically not touch their face throughout the process.

It seems common sense doesn’t it but it’s surprising how much we touch our face etc while doing everything.

I may be thinking too much into it but I wish we knew how long it stayed transferable on certain materials/products

 

[hungrywing]

My exams in May are cancelled now. Possibly moving to an online assessment which seems pointless as everyone is clearly going to be conferring.

Aren't those done in front of a webcam so a monitor can watch you.

 

[SirAF]

My exams in May are cancelled now. Possibly moving to an online assessment which seems pointless as everyone is clearly going to be conferring.

Surely better than canceling all together and delaying people's education?

 

[Nou_Camp99]

I'm still not overly worried by this at all. My wife is a nurse and is cool as a cucumber about it too. Most either already have it with very mild symptoms or are going to get it at some point over next few months. It's inevitable. All we can do is try to ensure the elderly and the people with serious health issues are isolating as best as they can.

The panic I have seen from some people (mainly in supermarkets) has been beyond a joke. God help us if we ever have to go through another world war and people are enlisted.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

It seems common sense doesn’t it but it’s surprising how much we touch our face etc while doing everything.

I may be thinking too much into it but I wish we knew how long it stayed transferable on certain materials/products

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

The thought is around 9 days but in the right conditions 28 days.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

The scientist who led research that is reported to have influenced changes to the UK's coronavirus policy is self-isolating after developing symptoms of Covid-19.

Prof Neil Ferguson, from London's Imperial College, led a group of experts modelling the effect of policies introduced to curb the virus.



Prof Ferguson told BBC Radio 4's Today programme he developed symptoms on Tuesday and a high fever overnight - hours after attending a Downing Street press conference.

"Central London is really the kind of hotspot in the UK at the moment... still in Westminster, there is a lot," he said.

"It is becoming quite a widespread community infection especially in hotspots like London," he added.

He was with Johnson and the rest.

On Monday.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

I'm still not overly worried by this at all. My wife is a nurse and is cool as a cucumber about it too. Most either already have it with very mild symptoms or are going to get it at some point over next few months. It's inevitable. All we can do is try to ensure the elderly and the people with serious health issues are isolating as best as they can.

The panic I have seen from some people (mainly in supermarkets) has been beyond a joke. God help us if we every have to go through another world war and people are enlisted.

Where are you? Again its not the death toll so much I am worried about Covid 19 as long as the health service can keep going its the damage its going to do to the economy and how we live our daily lives, also how long it will stick around for.

 

[Zlatan 7]

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

The thought is around 9 days but in the right conditions 28 days.

Wow!

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Wow!

Yeah you can see why this fecker is spreading so fast, its clearly much more contagious and adaptable than either SARS or MERS.

 

[Nou_Camp99]

Where are you? Again its not the death toll so much I am worried about Covid 19 its the damage its going to do to the economy and how long it will stick around for.

Manchester.

And I agree about the economy. That is a concern obviously but the scare mongering hasn't helped this one bit. They are saying on the news that this could be going on for 10 months. Are we supposed to be not shopping or going out for almost a year? Nobody will have a job after half that time. Eventually we are going to have to just crack on with it as harsh as it may sound. Obviously take care of the vulnerable in all this first but life must go on. We can't all hide away for a year can we?

 

[Penna]

The panic I have seen from some people (mainly in supermarkets) has been beyond a joke. God help us if we ever have to go through another world war and people are enlisted.

I've been thinking this as well. Men were sent away from home for years with no choice in the matter, those left behind had to cope whatever their circumstances (and with severe food rationing, too).

 

[arnie_ni]

Does anyone have a rental prop? Mum and dad do are duno what to do re maybe saying not to worry about rent for the same 3 months that mortgages have been paused.

 

[senorgregster]

I'm massively simplifying, but it's not about cut-off values, more about type of antibody the body generates. IgM correlates more with active disease, IgG correlates woth previous exposure.

In general terms.

Actually that makes sense. Black and white for both? Not grayscale? Bit surprised that black and white would be accurate enough.

 

[Drifter]

Feds’ 100-page coronavirus plan warns it will ‘last 18 months’ and cause ‘critical shortages’: report

The federal government’s plan for responding to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic was obtained by The New York Times.

“A federal government plan to combat the coronavirus warned policymakers last week that a pandemic ‘will last 18 months or longer’ and could include ‘multiple waves,’ resulting in widespread shortages that would strain consumers and the nation’s health care system,” the newspaper reported.

“The 100-page plan, dated Friday, the same day President Trump declared a national emergency, laid out a grim prognosis for the spread of the virus and outlined a response that would activate agencies across the government and potentially employ special presidential powers to mobilize the private sector,” The Times reported.

The document warned of ongoing shortages.

“Shortages of products may occur, impacting health care, emergency services, and other elements of critical infrastructure,” the plan warned. “This includes potentially critical shortages of diagnostics, medical supplies (including [personal protective equipment] and pharmaceuticals), and staffing in some locations.”

“State and local governments, as well as critical infrastructure and communications channels, will be stressed and potentially less reliable. These stresses may also increase the challenges of getting updated messages and coordinating guidance to these jurisdictions directly,” the plan continued.

The document was marked, “For Official Use Only // Not For Public Distribution or Release.”

 

[Arruda]

Actually that makes sense. Black and white for both? Not grayscale? Bit surprised that black and white would be accurate enough.

I don't know but don't think so. You are still looking for titers, and you will still have cut-off values (usually very low, just to ensure specificity, etc).

 

[Classical Mechanic]

1/500 is not exactly low odds when you're working on a macro level, even if you assume that only 1/10 cases were identified and it was actually 1/5000. There is around 20m people in the UK aged between 20 and 40. If 40% got infected and 1/5000 of them died, you're looking at 1600 dead. With our health service under that sort of strain I expect it would be magnitudes higher.

The point isn't really the mortality rate though. It's the fact people require medical attention thereby pressuring the medical capacity and thus making the general mortality rate go up.

I more meant on a micro level which admittedly was an aside. It would actually affect the elderly most in terms of outcomes though because young people would be top priority for ICU care in the event of hospitcal capacity overload. You'd basically have scores of old people left to die in makeshift hospitals, its happening in Italy currently.

 

[Dan_F]

My exams in May are cancelled now. Possibly moving to an online assessment which seems pointless as everyone is clearly going to be conferring.

Yeah I think there’s a lot of decisions to be made around that. I work with people doing apprenticeships and I have no idea how they are going to do tests.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Manchester.

And I agree about the economy. That is a concern obviously but the scare mongering hasn't helped this one bit. They are saying on the news that this could be going on for 10 months. Are we supposed to be not shopping or going out for almost a year? Nobody will have a job after half that time. Eventually we are going to have to just crack on with it as harsh as it may sound. Obviously take care of the vulnerable in all this first but life must go on. We can't all hide away for a year can we?

I honestly cant believe there was not some plan behind an out break like this, we have had Ebola, SARS, MERS, Swine flu, Bird Flu in recent times and while they were relatively mild on a world scale surely it was inevitable at some point this probably would happen.

I can totally see the problem in dealing with this, some people saying lock everything down, some people saying the UK is doing the right thing. I feel there is no right thing, clearly the elderly and people with a week immune system are the people we need to be conceded for so rightly we need to be focussing on the NHS o treat the sick and for the ones who are yet to get this need to basically do as they are told. Clearly there is a massive hit to the economy with lockdown, if its sustained for even a few months the damage going forward will be huge and will effect the next generation massively. The banks will not wait forever and the people getting laid of will be signing on and at some point. People saying even caring for the economy at this point are heartless are wrong, we need a balanced approach to this.

 

[senorgregster]

I don't know but don't think so. You are still looking for titers, and you will still have cut-off values (usually very low, just to ensure specificity, etc).

I suspect the active infection (IgM) will be the tricky one. At what point is IgM low enough to consider the infection over.

 

[2cents]

 

[jojojo]

Does anyone have a rental prop? Mum and dad do are duno what to do re maybe saying not to worry about rent for the same 3 months that mortgages have been paused.

I think something of the sort will be necessary. Whether that's a "start today" or a "start when your tenant actually needs it" (because this could be a year or so we're taking about) is maybe a reason to pause. The government are due to come out with advice this week.

In an ideal world it would be a start today and give people one less thing to worry about, but the side-effects (particularly for tenants receiving or about to receive housing benefits) could make the timing significant. Of course, that ignores the fact that some landlords will be relying on the income, even if mortgage payments are suspended/delayed.

 

[LilyWhiteSpur]

Wouldn't get excited just yet see what it looks like over the next week, what level of control are they currently under?

 

[11101]

ok good stuff. Who else have you noticed who is posting good info?

@van der star is a medical student/doctor (?) in a badly hit area of Lombardy - but maybe that makes him too busy.
@Camy89 is an NHS doctor in London i think, although maybe that makes him soon to be too busy.
There are also a couple of hospital doctors in Portugal and New York but i forget their names?

@TMDaines and @Pogue Mahone seem to know medicine too, and @Revan the statistics side.


For Italy, all information is from:
Civil Protection Agency 6pm daily press conference - http://www.protezionecivile.it/web/guest/home (in English)
Ministry of Health - http://www.salute.gov.it/nuovocoronavirus
National Health/Research Institute - https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/

This is a really good source from UCL as it charts progress of countries in relation to Italy

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

@Grinner

The OP could do being seperated into sections so there is data sets for the world and then individual countries. It should probably be a pinned thread on forum too.

Wish i'd seen that before. I spent an hour making my own version that says exactly the same damn thing Oh well at least i know i got it right

 

[Nou_Camp99]

I honestly cant believe there was not some plan behind an out break like this, we have had Ebola, SARS, MERS, Swine flu, Bird Flu in recent times and while they were relatively mild on a world scale surely it was inevitable at some point this probably would happen.

I can totally see the problem in dealing with this, some people saying lock everything down, some people saying the UK is doing the right thing. I feel there is no right thing, clearly the elderly and people with a week immune system are the people we need to be conceded for so rightly we need to be focussing on the NHS o treat the sick and for the ones who are yet to get this need to basically do as they are told. Clearly there is a massive hit to the economy with lockdown, if its sustained for even a few months the damage going forward will be huge and will effect the next generation massively. The banks will not wait forever and the people getting laid of will be signing on and at some point. People saying even caring for the economy at this point are heartless are wrong, we need a balanced approach to this.

We need to get over this peak period and then all go back to normal. If we carry on in lockdown for months on end then there will be a whole new set of issues for us all. It's sad that we're going to lose people but that's unfortunately how cruel life can be at times. We have to best protect the vulnerable as much as we can and the rest of us have to keep working and carry on as much as is humanly possible.

Lockdowns aren't even guaranteed to work either. As soon as some of these nations in strict lockdowns come out of it they could get a whole new wave for all we know. Eventually everyone is going to have to crack on.

 

[SirAF]

We need to get over this peak period and then all go back to normal. If we carry on in lockdown for months on end then there will be a whole new set of issues for us all. It's sad that we're going to lose people but that's unfortunately how cruel life can be at times. We have to best protect the vulnerable as much as we can and the rest of us have to keep working and carry on as much as is humanly possible.

Lockdowns aren't even guaranteed to work either. As soon as some of these nations in strict lockdowns come out of it they could get a whole new wave for all we know. Eventually everyone is going to have to crack on.

Of course, but a lockdown is not used to "kill" the virus. It's used to stretch out the epidemic in order for the NHS to not get overrun by everyone getting sick at the same time.