SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I did not see a single person walking around downtown tonight.

But forget the toilet paper panic; I went and grabbed the last 1.75L bottle of decent bourbon on the shelf.
 
Tarrou said:
The market itself isn't the problem though is it? It's the wildlife trade and hygiene standards

Banning wildlife trade and bringing in strict hygiene regulations makes a lot of sense though
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It's none of those, really.

Battery farms in the west are just as bad, if not worse, in those regards.

The issue is the sheer variety of species next to each other, each with its own unique diseases that are constantly mutating and looking for a new host.

A bat virus mutating into a human virus is one in a billion. But when you have hundreds of species next to each, the odds of a virus making the species jump become much higher because the bat virus could mutate into a human virus or a pangolin virus or a snake virus or a bear virus, etc. Once that first jump is made, all bets are off because of how fast novel viruses mutate to survive.

Wet markets can be continued as long as they become single species. Although a better solution would simply be to adopt battery farming of a small selection of species like we do in the west. It's obviously no less cruel or disgusting, but at least it meets food demand without threatening mankind with extinction to the same extent.
 
utdalltheway said:
Orange County, California is being locked down starting I believe tomorrow. Everyone working from home. No dining in restaurants. No public gatherings. Etc, etc.

Confused because Trump said before that there’d be zero cases in no time.
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Not really a lockdown. "Businesses are allowed to open, but must practice social distancing (six-foot separation)". Restaurants and bars are closed. Pretty much as here in Illinois, basically all leisure activity is halted (dining in, events, gyms and any other types gatherings), schools are closed, some people work from home.

Not to be confused with a real lockdown like in China or Italy where pretty much everyone must stay home.
 
senorgregster said:
Check out Fig 1. I can't say that inspires confidence. Especially for the UK.
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Agree, the paper, in general, is poorly written, the sample is quite small (and done in three days). More like wishful thinking from my part *.

* Without data analysis, there are some experts who are saying that they expect the virus to slow down spreading during the summer, but the summer will have a modest effect, not solve the problem. With the peak being expected to happen within 8 weeks, and that coinciding with summer, I have quite a lot of hope **.

** It will probably come back in October though (and if the history repeats itself, it will be even more dangerous), but hopefully, the governments will have some contingency plans and do some heavy preparation.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
The whole "pub" thing has become a trigger after Starkie's bizarre "I'm alright Jack and you're all idiots" ranting from the other day. If you had said "orgy" instead of "pub" then you would have been fine, which is actually what you were at so please stop lying to us.

I'm at one right now. I stand at the foot of the bed and clap.
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:lol::lol::lol:
 
Dante said:
It's none of those, really.

Battery farms in the west are just as bad, if not worse, in those regards.

The issue is the sheer variety of species next to each other, each with its own unique diseases that are constantly mutating and looking for a new host.

A bat virus mutating into a human virus is one in a billion. But when you have hundreds of species next to each, the odds of a virus making the species jump become much higher because the bat virus could mutate into a human virus or a pangolin virus or a snake virus or a bear virus, etc. Once that first jump is made, all bets are off because of how fast novel viruses mutate to survive.

Wet markets can be continued as long as they become single species. Although a better solution would simply be to adopt battery farming of a small selection of species like we do in the west. It's obviously no less cruel or disgusting, but at least it meets food demand without threatening mankind with extinction to the same extent.
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Good post.

About the bolded, totally agree, and should be adopted ASAP. It can still be dangerous, but nothing short of stopping eating animals will remove the possibility of a pandemic. Nevertheless, heavily regulating the industry would lower the chances. I am really scared that one day we will wake up, and some avian influenza (H5N1 is the flagship, but there are others) is spreading as fast as this *. That could kill billions, and crash the civilization.

* Luckily, is rarely spreads human to human, but viruses mutate all the time, and it has shown that the virus can go airborne with only 5 mutations. If it would keep the lethality rate (over 60%, and spreads as fast to humans as it does to poultry, it is gonna be really bad). Countries should spend less in military, and more in preventing pandemics and having ready vaccines for the worst pandemics (I know, easier said than done). If the US would spend 100 billion per year doing research in pandemic prevention form the military budget, they would still have 700 billions for their military.
 
Raoul said:
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Maybe I'm just being very stupid(It is 3am over here)but couldn't this process but faster if the US government or the CPP decided to chuck a ton of cash at the project ? Basically a wartime economy but for fighting the virus.
 
Giggs86 said:
Not really a lockdown. "Businesses are allowed to open, but must practice social distancing (six-foot separation)". Restaurants and bars are closed. Pretty much as here in Illinois, basically all leisure activity is halted (dining in, events, gyms and any other types gatherings), schools are closed, some people work from home.

Not to be confused with a real lockdown like in China or Italy where pretty much everyone must stay home.
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Correct. My wording was wrong. “Severe restrictions” on non household gathering are in place. Bosses told us all to work from home. We’ll still be able to get out and exercise (walk the dogs,etc).
Hopefully the beaches are not closed as I’d like to try a bit of fishing tomorrow.
 
Dante said:
It's none of those, really.

Battery farms in the west are just as bad, if not worse, in those regards.

The issue is the sheer variety of species next to each other, each with its own unique diseases that are constantly mutating and looking for a new host.

A bat virus mutating into a human virus is one in a billion. But when you have hundreds of species next to each, the odds of a virus making the species jump become much higher because the bat virus could mutate into a human virus or a pangolin virus or a snake virus or a bear virus, etc. Once that first jump is made, all bets are off because of how fast novel viruses mutate to survive.

Wet markets can be continued as long as they become single species. Although a better solution would simply be to adopt battery farming of a small selection of species like we do in the west. It's obviously no less cruel or disgusting, but at least it meets food demand without threatening mankind with extinction to the same extent.
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clearly the wildlife trade is a factor as it's one of the reasons there are so many species there
 
Raoul said:
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feck, it is really terrifying. Essentially, to keep the number of deaths in 'just' a few thousand, there needs to be a suppression. Suppression is actually not too bad, arguably what US/Germany are doing right now, and far more relaxed than Italy/Spain's lockdowns.
 
Sweet Square said:



Maybe I'm just being very stupid(It is 3am over here)but couldn't this process but faster if the US government or the CPP decided to chuck a ton of cash at the project ? Basically a wartime economy but for fighting the virus.
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Probably a bit but not too much. You need to be totally sure that the vaccine is safe, it does not make things worse, and it actually works. Imagine vaccinating the population and ending the suppression stage, to only find out that the vaccine does not work.

Apparently, the only way to know this for sure is testing, testing, and testing. Start with a few people (while animal testing is going in parallel *), then do a few dozens of people, then do for thousands of people (while vaccinating as many people with placebo vaccines to see the difference). Then wait. And then wait more. And then start mass-producing it, giving it first to people who are in high-risk categories (or in case of US, those that have top insurances).

All the researchers are saying that 12-18 months is actually a miracle. It typically takes 10-20 years.

* First time ever for this to happen. Typically, it is done in animals for a few years before starting with humans. Anyway, the vaccines are already developed by different companies. Now it is important to see if they really work. The first one developed is from a company that has never made a licensed vaccine and who is using a novel technology (it does not use the virus at all). While the vaccine won't be able to do infections on its own (so it won't kill us), who knows what can be the side effects (remove for good the immunity against that - or similar - viruses, weaken the immunity system, who knows. Unlikely but we are in uncharted territory and we cannot feck this up).
 
Revan said:
All the researchers are saying that 12-18 months is actually a miracle. It typically takes 10-20 years.
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It would take some serious shortcuts to get a vaccine in such a short time and you then have to manufacture, distribute and administer it on a scale of billions of people.
 
MikeKing said:
fecked yeah but in what way? What is he saying? I honestly don't get whats weird about the video. It's just a very long line, for natural reasons.
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I have no idea who made the video and that context they were saying we’re fecked. My takeaways from this was that there’s almost no social distancing happening here and it is very likely to create a ruckus soon possibly due to lack of supplies.
 
Revan said:
Probably a bit but not too much. You need to be totally sure that the vaccine is safe, it does not make things worse, and it actually works. Imagine vaccinating the population and ending the suppression stage, to only find out that the vaccine does not work.

Apparently, the only way to know this for sure is testing, testing, and testing. Start with a few people (while animal testing is going in parallel), then do a few dozens of people, then do for thousands of people (while vaccinating as many people with placebo vaccines to see the difference). Then wait. And then wait more. And then start mass-producing it, giving it first to people who are in high-risk categories (or in case of US, those that have top insurances).

All the researchers are saying that 12-18 months is actually a miracle. It typically takes 10-20 years.
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Yeah that’s right, then comes producing and stockpiling in huge quantities which will also take time.
 
Wibble said:
It would take some serious shortcuts to get a vaccine in such a short time and you then have to manufacture, distribute and administer it on a scale of billions of people.
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They are already taking (see my previous post). For example, no animal testing before human trials starts (they started yesterday). The genetically enhanced mice are still not grown to start the testing (which apparently will be done, but in parallel with the first group of humans).

I am afraid that this can go wrong (it likely won't), in which case we would be in total trouble. It is so important to develop efficient anti-virals in meantime, in order to give the researchers a breath so they don't feck up.
 
Berbaclass said:
Yeah that’s right, then comes producing and stockpiling in huge quantities which will also take time.
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That is probably the only stage which can really be speed up if enough money is invested. It helps that the vaccine is synthetic, so you do not need to wait for years to produce a lot of it.

It can also be done in stages, like vaccinate the most vulnerable first, while you loosen the restrictions for the young ones. If 30% of the population (the elderly and those with pre-conditions) gets vaccinated, you can loosen almost the entire restrictions for the other part of the population (assuming that some anti-virals are already showing to be effective).

It is gonna be ugly for poor countries who will likely have to wait until US, EU, China, Japan, S.Korea, Australia, Canada get vaccinated.
 
Sweet Square said:



Maybe I'm just being very stupid(It is 3am over here)but couldn't this process but faster if the US government or the CPP decided to chuck a ton of cash at the project ? Basically a wartime economy but for fighting the virus.
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18 months is nothing in terms of testing and getting a vaccine approved, manufactured and distributed. No matter how much money you throw at it you can't shorten testing indefinitely. And that assumes the vaccine works and doesn't have side effects. And that we can even develop a working one. Like we didn't/couldn't for SARS and MERS - the other nasty recent corona-viruses (or the corona-viruses that constitute 1/3 of colds - that we also haven't been able to make a vaccine for).

Then there is the fast mutations that vaccines create when used on viruses.

It could all go to plan and work well but nothing in this pan is certain and drug trials usually take longer than planned.

We need to act as if this isn't going to happen and be pleasantly surprised if it does.
 
Moderna's inc stock has increased from 20 to 28 from January (when the pandemic talk started). I sincerely hope their vaccine is not only a play to increase the stock's value. Maybe I am being too cynical.
 
I wonder how much all of this will end up costing the world economy. It will be staggering. Surely like nothing before?
 
Wibble said:
18 months is nothing in terms of testing and getting a vaccine approved, manufactured and distributed. No matter how much money you throw at it you can't shorten testing indefinitely. And that assumes the vaccine works and doesn't have side effects. And that we can even develop a working one. Like we didn't/couldn't for SARS and MERS - the other nasty recent corona-viruses (or the corona-viruses that constitute 1/3 of colds - that we also haven't been able to make a vaccine for).

Then there is the fast mutations that vaccines create when used on viruses.

It could all go to plan and work well but nothing in this pan is certain and drug trials usually take longer than planned.

We need to act as if this isn't going to happen and be pleasantly surprised if it does.
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There were candidate vaccines for SARS and MERS, which is why this vaccine was developed so fast (covid-19 is extremely similar to SARS). Those vaccines were not developed cause there was no money to do all the required testing in order to license them. And then there was no market even if you get the license, so any private company would have lost tens of millions by developing those vaccines.

I think no one gives a shit for the common cold. There are 4 coronaviruses that cause the cold (and all of them combined cause 0.25-0.3 of the colds). So too much money for next to no reward. You essentially need 4 vaccines to protect from a fraction of colds. Most the people don't bother to take a flu shot, people won't care about taking a cold shot that has a 0.2-0.3 effective rate. Finally, the viruses evolve, so you need to keep the research going.

I am confident that given enough time (there will be enough resources), there is gonna be a vaccine for this, but I am scared that rushing it too much might cause more harm than good.
 
Is there an information somewhere how many tests where done? Not just the numbers of infected persons ?

In Germany it was more than 100,000 in the last week and 35,000 in the week before. Without tests in hospitals.
 
0le said:
Even with all the shit going on, I can still find the time to get annoyed about people using the Fahrenheit scale. :D
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There was once my son's childcare called us to say he measured 100 degrees. My jaws dropped and thought my son had reached boiling point.
 
maniak said:
Silly Question time: I normally go around at night taking photos in my hometown. I do it alone and if I don't touch anything there's zero chance I can get this, right?
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If someone on the street happen to walk near you and sneeze/cough (without mask), you may still get this.
 
Sweet Square said:
Maybe I'm just being very stupid(It is 3am over here)but couldn't this process but faster if the US government or the CPP decided to chuck a ton of cash at the project ? Basically a wartime economy but for fighting the virus.
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If it was a simple matter of money the US would have it solved right away, seeing as how it is hurting us.

It is not, though.
 
Dunno if enough people have it now that it's no longer interesting to list symptoms, but I'm currently enjoying the worst nights sleep of my life thanks to the damn fever that comes with it.
 
Are footballers really being so insensitive and doing kick up challenges with toilet paper for likes/clout while general public are struggling for rolls?

I’m sorry but they live in a different world.
 
Renegade said:
Are footballers really being so insensitive and doing kick up challenges with toilet paper for likes/clout while general public are struggling for rolls?

I’m sorry but they live in a different world.
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Struggling for rolls? The majority of normal people that aren’t hoarding still have a reasonable supply. Then you have the hoarders who can’t see the TV because of them. There’s a shortage of rolls into the supermarket but there’s an abundance of rolls in houses.
 
Pexbo said:
Struggling for rolls? The majority of normal people that aren’t hoarding still have a reasonable supply. Then you have the hoarders who can’t see the TV because of them. There’s a shortage of rolls into the supermarket but there’s an abundance of rolls in houses.
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I've got two rolls left.
 
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