Estimated to be about 13 weeks for the UK
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Estimated to be about 13 weeks for the UK
I think it's far too difficult right now to determine just how much damage it will do. It depends on each countries infrastucture and the preparations they've taken. Italy is a great example of a country being ill prepared for it, hence why the death rate is higher as they've not had the resources to cope. We don't even know if the virus will die out in warmer climates (current theories suggest it wont). This is one of the many reasons why this virus should not be taken lightly as we have very little confirmed information on it and thus can't do accurate models or take adequate precautions.
Having an open border with no checks is asking for trouble however which is why you'll see it get wildly out of control in the UK and the US. Both of whom have reacted far too late to be able to contain it properly imo. That's not fear mongering either, thats just having a very basic understanding of how a virus like this spreads. I really do hope everyone is over reacting. But everyone should be treating this completely seriously and not waving it off as some common flu as many have done.
But China didn't let it fully spread though, as it seems like the British govt are intending. Wuhan have been in severe lockdown for over a month now.
The UK science guy said they expect it to peak in 10-14 weeks. Gonna be a long auld haul.
Obviously globalism is more than travelling hence why I also mentioned trade.
My point is that this virus isn’t a globalism issue, even with isolationist policies the virus will spread. It will be the more socially conscious societies that ride the storm best with the more right wing, capitalism first countries like America who will be effected worst. With supposedly the best health care options in the world, America is incredibly poorly prepared for this scenario because they sell healthcare as a “freedom” instead of providing it as a human right.
This has the potential to change public sentiment for good.
139 people returning from a skiing trip to Tyrol in Austia has more or less closed Denmark for two weeks. The amount of infected people in Denmark has skyrocketed in two days. Luckily England is not a popular tourist attraction.
You guys are fecked!
PL matches will be banned within the week.
You guys are fecked!
PL matches will be banned within the week.
And what is that peak in terms of physical number of people infected?
Living and working in London, I fully accepted that I will most likely catch it at some point. People spreading it without showing symptoms and unfortunately, I think some people are under to much pressure to go to work and the underground will be a hotbed for it being left on surfaces. Even today had people in the office coughing away, I get it, you may not be that bad or maybe just a cough, but why risk it?
I'm just dreading 14 days of isolation more than i am actually being ill.
I'm just dreading 14 days of isolation more than i am actually being ill.
Ridiculous that we’re carrying on as normal.
I don't think it's fear mongering, this will be massive.
The fact there’s a problem with the Western world not being able to afford the healthcare of their aging populations has nothing to do with neo liberalism, it’s a demographic problem. In fact, in theory globalization should help our health services as we can get immigrants from other parts of the World to fill up the financial gaps.
The ironic thing is when at the time we need moderate policies the most to heal the divisions in society, social media seems only to be creating more division by polarizing opinions even further.
You won't be isolated. You will have redcafe and premium porn via VPN. The days will fly by.
Strangest thing tonight, was in Co Op when a women on the till started coughing, she was easily 60's and people walked out of the queue not to sure what to do.
The poor guy being served looked round at the rest of the shop like he was about to tell her to leave it.
I decided the self serve was the safer option.
The poor guy being served looked round at the rest of the shop like he was about to tell her to leave it.
I decided the self serve was the safer option.
Well considering they think there's 5,000-10,000 already infected in the UK...A LOT.
I understand the severity, but irrespective of projection, I don't see it happening. The rates decline as more countries take preventive measures. I don't see 2% of world population dying. That 14m people! Way above what we've seen now.
Trade is movement of goods. I don't see any restrictions on that. You'll see economy decline as a factor of stock markets, but trade will only improve as countries need supplies they can't produce. For example, Italy's imports would increase as their local produce suffers.
The question is, how long can they isolate infected regions? They have to get the infections to zero or at least a few that are traceable, so that they can contain new infections or hotspots. And there is the risk, that in the future infections will be imported from the outside.
The strategy outside China seems to be to ride this out till the fall (say mid-September). Thats six months in which China to contain this virus probably has to shut down again entire regions or whole of China for periods of time. And ban travel from outside.
Can you imagine the consequences for the chinese (and worldwide) economy?
Is the chinese society able to do this without major civil unrest?
In my opinion China has not solved the problem, it will come back.
If we continue at a rate of ~30% increases everyday, we'll reach 45 million in the UK by 24 April.
I don't think that's going to happen, though.
I reckon it'll peak in August/September. At that point, the majority will have contracted/recovered (hopefully) from the disease and a bit of normalcy might begin to return. Then it'll be a case of looking after the most vulnerable who haven't yet been infected.
Same here. It’s mostly old Trumpers who will be on the firing line for this thing.
I hope you're right. China (autocracy), Singapore (semi-autocracy) and South Korea (democracy) have all had different measures that have had an immense effect. I don't see Western countries trying to do the same, so the death rate will be higher. And when it explodes in Africa, it is gonna be very ugly.
And that's what they'll do. We would've been fine if we had done the same weeks ago (ideally about a month ago) coupled with a small lockdown to give the services time to identify all cases. But you can't fecking do that, if you just keep letting wildcards as we are still doing.
Are the numbers 100% accurate? Not saying they not but ...they have their app and a means for controlling movement.
Honestly, it seems it is more about buying time (for anti-virals and possibly a vaccine), and "flattening the curve" rather than solving the problem. Essentially, there is no solution, only mitigation.
It might have been stopped in January, since then it is just delaying it for those two reasons I mentioned.
He said their reasonable worst case scenario was 80% overall, though obviously that isn't necessarily the most likely outcome. I don't think he gave a breakdown of how much of that they expected at peak.
The thing in Africa's favour is a very low median age who should be able to survive without medical attention. But obviously the poverty/famine and lack of care for those that will need it, will throw that off I guess. Secondly, quite a significant portion of the African population has sickle cell anaemia (which actually gives them a bit of resistance to malaria) - so I wonder how that will compound this virus?
What's also indicative is how many top level footballers/high profile celebrities- people of importance are contracting this virus. Gives an idea of the scale and spread of this virus. Really quite worrying.
I actually think (hope) that Africa will fare relatively well. Only 3% of the population are in the oldest demographics.
It's going to be the regions with the highest proportion of over 65s that feel the biggest hit.
That's why I think the 2% CFR from China will be higher in Europe (as is being proved in Italy so far) and lower in the developing world.
For the first time ever, the phrase 'First World Problem' might actually mean something.
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You seem to be arguing that the more laissez faire approach in the UK is the right one, as loads of people will end up infected anyway and only herd immunity will cause an end to the pandemic. I’m arguing that the more aggressive and early forced social distancing (school closures etc) we’re seeing in every other EU country will cause a more gradual rate of infection, hence easing the burden on the health services. That’s what we disagree on.
Yep, the youth age is definitely a factor. The mortality rate there might easily turn out to be lower than in the Western countries, despite them not having proper medical support.
No idea about the bolded point. Malaria is caused from some parasite, why should the same immunity help against a virus originating in bats?
The average increase percentage per day since the breakout really began to get traction (4th March) is 32% rise per day.
If you cap the rise at 25% per day then by the 1st April the infected rate will be 49,479. If however the infection rate remains at 32% then by 1st April it will be 155,277 infected. The really big concern right now is that the UKs (and Europe) is following the same growth trend as Italy. This is why as a country we need to be shutting down major events because to allow the transfer of this virus to large numbers of people is extremely, extremely stupid and just accelerates the growth putting even more pressure on the NHS and the countrys fragile infrastucture. It's honestly bewildering why we've taken such a laid back approach to this virus.
Which is why this timing for a peak thing is a load of shit. The healthcare system will start to fall apart if the number infected reaches in the 10s of thousands. The peak we're heading to naturally will be millions of people infected at the same time.
It wouldn't. It could potentially make it a lot worse for those who have it though (if your respiratory system is strained, you're struggling to provide oxygen to your blood cells - and anaemic blood cells already have less capacity for oxygen).
In case you're interested, UK science guy's explanation for not doing this was that there wasn't actually that much risk of mass infection. He basically said that there are only so many people one person could infect in a crowd like that and that it's the people who are in regular close contact with the infected person who would be more in danger. So they didn't think it was particularly worthwhile.
Ah, totally misunderstand your point. Yep, that doesn't sound good.
We can afford healthcare but 1)Neoliberalism actively attacks and privatises institutions like the NHS or as we see in the US primaries, neo liberalism will do all it can to push back against the very idea of universal healthcare. 2)Neoliberalism is fundamentally against universal concepts and believes everything has to be run for a profit.
The problem(Well one of many) with the theory is the outcome of neoliberalism is mass inequity and destroyed worker power, which it then blame immigrants for. It's an old quote but it still works ''If you don't want to talk critically about liberalism, then shut up about fascism ''- Max Horkheimer.
But yeah whatever I don't want to derail the thread, you're on the left I get it and actually the real issue isn't material concerns and class power but people being nasty on twitter. Again the fact this sort of stuff passes for being on the left is sad indictment of the left.
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I guess Tom Hanks is leading the foul plot.
Humanity has been saved?
https://www.afp.com/en/news/1315/me...le-vaccine-candidate-covid-19-202003120053451
https://www.afp.com/en/news/1315/me...le-vaccine-candidate-covid-19-202003120053451