Things are complicated. The problem is that you can’t shut down the World everytime there’s a new virus. Clearly the Chinese authorities should shoulder the majority of blame. If they had acted quicker and transparently once the virus was first detected then it could have been stopped from spreading before it was too late.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Things are complicated. The problem is that you can’t shut down the World everytime there’s a new virus. Clearly the Chinese authorities should shoulder the majority of blame. If they had acted quicker and transparently once the virus was first detected then it could have been stopped from spreading before it was too late.
Arteta? 
Dybala tooArteta?
Arteta now, surely Arsenals’ season over.
No NBA, NHL, NFL, probably Football and Rugby will follow. We are basically left with studying, working, gaming and maybe even interact with real humans. It is terrible.
Or you know if the west bothered to cancel all flights/transport to China when it started looking serious? Or at least, tested and quarantined (and not asked them to self quarantine and hope for the best) every fecker who came back from a hotspot.
Yeah that was already over to be fair.
Checking some curves, with this trend, the ICU capacity in the US will be reached on the 9th of April. The scary thing is that the number of total infections might increase for a few orders of magnitude from that point one, increasing the mortality rate much higher than it should be. And doctors and nurses will die in the thousands, meaning worse treatment for the patients.
This will have as big consequences as World War 2 (and probably more victims). People are still calm, but we are still in the first percent of the first percent of the entire story.
This will have as big consequences as World War 2 (and probably more victims). People are still calm, but we are still in the first percent of the first percent of the entire story.
Exactly the same can be said of most countries. Well, the most incompetent has been in the US ironically. They have absolutely no idea how many people are infected in the US and they still don’t have any useful plan of testing in place due to the complete incompetence of the current Executive.
is this going to kill hundreds of thousands or millions?
10s of millions world wide.
"Only" tens of millions, if we are lucky. Probably 100m+.
I'm hoping it'll be the death of right wing politics, but vermin always manages to survive.
Stop fear mongering.
It is not fear-mongering though. An extremely optimistic infection rate of 20% of world population, with an extremely optimistic mortality rate of 0.7% (South Korea) puts the number of deaths to 10 million.
He's not.
60% infection rate of 7 billion people at a CFR of 2% is 84 million dead.
On the contrary, I think it might be the other way around, and it will stop the spread of globalism IMO.
Despite this spreading like wildfire everyone is welcome to Britain, how nice of us.
Overall it comes down to 40 odd years of neo liberalism destroying the social safety net and the role of the state being geared simply to the goals of the market but even with that said, there is just a sheer level of incompetence when it comes to talking about the current administrations in Britain and the United States.
Maybe disaster nationalism has finally got the disaster it's being looking for.
Too late... People were infected at least in November, weeks before any foreign government knew about it. There’s plenty of eyewitness accounts to prove it. The response since then has mostly been what can be expected considering the level of preparation society has for this kind of pandemic.
It's not the same rate everywhere.
What's the global death count till now? Ignoring %s it less than 4,000 till now. Saying 10s of millions is a fear mongering stat. And most countries are already taking precautions. It's bound to get lower and I'd expect less than a million death's globally at end of this outbreak.
That’s utter rubbish. This kind pandemic is actually very natural and occurs in all species. Get real. And I’m left wing btw.
Thanks mate. It was pretty weird to be honest. I took a walk through emergency to see what it was looking like after the news broke, and it was practically empty, and outside in triage only had a couple people.
Felt like something out of a movie.
It would have been a good night to be on call. Gonna be very quiet
So most countries have gone into lockdown apart from the England and Scotland? Gosh, I hope we know something the rest don't.
You think people will literally want to stay in their own countries and no longer trade internationally? That’s as daft as Trump banning international travel while the disease has already taken grasp domestically.
Is there an idea of when the peak of this is expected, in Europe at least?
7 days or so for symptoms to show, then a couple of days feeling ill, and a couple more to process the test. Easy.
Does anyone even know what this peak is? What are they hoping for in this best case peak scenario? 20% of the population infected at the same time?
People traveling is far different from globalism. Not sure what your point is, considering this being a temporary measure.
I'm talking about the respond by the state, not the virus itself.
It's going to be harder for a country to prepare for something like Covid 19 when the people in charge have been systematically killing the national health service(And views the state role as basically doing what ever is profitable for capital). And similar the US would be better prepared if they had universal healthcare(Something neo liberalism hates).
Says more about the shit show of the current eft than anything. tbh.
It doesn't matter what is the death count now considering that it is an exponential function. It is the same thing as someone in January saying "what is the death count now, only 3. Predicting 4000 by the beginning of March is fear-mongering".
Forecasts are saying 20-60%, Merkel said to expect 50-70% of Germans to get infected, but somehow it is gonna be less than a million. Even with an optimistic 0.7% fatality of infected, for only 1 million people to die, only 2% of the world population need to get infected. Unfortunate as it is, it is gonna be much uglier than that (unless the summer really does something to the virus, but then it is delaying in only until fall, and then rinse and repeat).
Wuhan was going crazy after about 4-5 weeks, so I reckon it takes around 30-40 days for this outbreak to fully spread through infected regions without any measures in place. It's been in Europe for almost 3 weeks, I think?
You would need to ask someone who studies the effects of sneezing and coughing and how large the droplets become from those effects.
When working with natural processes, you usually have a range of sizes, rather than any fixed specific size. You can characterise that range of sizes (it can be a histogram and then fit a probability density distribution to it) using several different methods, e.g. by weighting according to the total number, the total volume of the droplets or the total area etc. The weighting you choose depends on the industry. One example is the "Sauter mean".
20 micron is short for 20 micrometer which is 0.02 millimeters. A 1nm nanoparticle/nanodroplet is 0.001 micrometer. Anything below 20 micron will have some affects from Brownian motion which could feasibly keep it airbourne. The effects become significant for anything less than 1 micron in size. Generally, in engineering you would calculate a "settling velocity" for your particles which, when the background air in quiet or "quiescient" (aka quite still), is the same as the terminal velocity. For very small droplets, you can assume they are solid and just do a simple calculation. Things get more complicated for larger droplets (due to internal motion and non-sphericity) and when there is motion in the background air because it can enhance/reduce the settling velocity and the prescence of the particles/droplets can also influence the motion of the background air. These processes are not well understood and poorly simulated via CFD.
With regards to coughing and sneezing, I imagine you are imparting a lot of energy to the droplets when you release them. So a lot could just end up falling to the ground anyway. Its hard to say though. There was an episode on QI where they discussed this a little bit, and someone from the audience brought in a "vomit machine" which simulated a human vomitting and where the droplets go. This is something people from that field will inevitably have studied and have a far better knowledge of.
As droplets deposit on a surface, they can either deposit all their liquid in a calm way or "spalsh", potentially releasing secondary droplets back into the air - these are called "satellite droplets". So even if you sneeze on a solid surface, it is possible you still release some droplets back towards the air.
There have been simulations where researchers have looked at how droplets move when they enter the trachea, but this is way beyond what I've studied.
JUST A FLUUUuuu.
Ffs should've canceled EPL 1-2 weeks ago
Ffs should've canceled EPL 1-2 weeks ago