Excess mortality in the EU during COVID-19 pandemic
During the month of March 2020, the number of deaths rose rapidly in some European countries when compared with the average number of deaths in the period from 2016 to 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic affected every part of the EU; however, its impact was not evenly spread. The highest peaks of a higher-than-average number of deaths during the first recording of COVID-19 cases in March-April 2020 were initially recorded in Italy and Spain, followed by France, Belgium and the Netherlands. During the period between March 2020 and February 2021, the EU experienced two waves of excess mortality: the first between March and May 2020 (reaching a 25.2 % excess rate in April) and a second between August 2020 and the end of the year (reaching a 40.0 % excess rate in November, the highest rate for the whole year). In this second wave, excess mortality rose in all EU Member States, this time with a geographical prevalence in the eastern part of Europe (Poland, Bulgaria and Slovenia reached an excess of more than 90.0 % in November 2020). Excess mortality reached a third peak in April 2021 (20.9 %) then decreased to a low of 5.7 % in July 2021, with some countries reaching a total number of deaths close to - or even below - the 2016-2019 baseline. During summer 2021, the downward trend reversed again and the EU rate increased in September to reach 12.8 % over the baseline period. Finally, in autumn-winter 2021, there was a fourth wave of excess mortality, this time with the EU rate reaching 26.6 % in November and 23.7 % in December 2021.
In 2022, excess mortality in the EU generally stayed at lower levels, at around 10 % except for July-August and December 2022. In July and August, when heatwaves affected parts of Europe, there were respectively 58 145 and 52 479 additional deaths. The excess mortality for these two months was exceptionally high (17.1 % of the average number for the same period in 2016-2019 for July and 13.9 % for August). In December 2022, excess mortality was the highest of the year and stood at 20.3 %. In 2023, excess mortality saw major decreases. In January 2023, it was 4.2 % of the average number for the same period in 2016-2019. In February 2023, for the first time since February 2020 (pre-COVID-19 pandemic period), there were no excess deaths and the indicator fell below the baseline to -1.1 %. In March and April 2023, excess mortality rose slightly to 1.3 % and 4.2 % respectively. In May 2023, when the World Health Organization declared an end to the COVID-19 public-health emergency, the excess mortality in the EU was 3.6 %.