Here here.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Here here.
So can anyone give me any insight into whats happening in Israel please? Highest new cases happening since this whole thing started despite a what I believe was a decent vaccination program. Its a worry.
PCR test will not tell you if there are mutations except if the mutations are extensive enough, and in the primer region, so that the primers do not bind (which would give you a negative result). Mutations will need to be tracked via sequencing.
I thought in the UK we were sequencing all positive results and building a massive data set on how the virus is evolving and how it’s spreading.
Not all but representative sample.
we’ve come a loooong way in science. I remember having to read sequencing gels back in grad school. Those bastards took forever and were a pain in the ass. Next came Sanger sequencing which took a while but was (mostly) automated. Now with next gen sequencing we can sequence samples quickly and on a massive scale. Amazing.
edit: the human genome project took in excess of a billion dollars and over a decade. It requires a massive room full of machines. I could do it tomorrow for a few hundred bucks.
@Pogue Mahone
It was on the basis of this testing that they decided yesterday to stop letting us eat at restaurants - I think the large-scale testing helped make a (correct) decision.
In earlier semesters, it was the testing (and subsequent tracing) that helped keep numbers low in comparison to much bigger outbreaks at other colleges. Though that was probably excessive - as a TA, 1-2X/week for me, and 2-3X/week for my students.
I know some people involved in designing the tests and they devised a simple method to pool samples to avoid wasting too much material on surveillance testing..
It was on the basis of this testing that they decided yesterday to stop letting us eat at restaurants - I think the large-scale testing helped make a (correct) decision.
In earlier semesters, it was the testing (and subsequent tracing) that helped keep numbers low in comparison to much bigger outbreaks at other colleges. Though that was probably excessive - as a TA, 1-2X/week for me, and 2-3X/week for my students.
I know some people involved in designing the tests and they devised a simple method to pool samples to avoid wasting too much material on surveillance testing..
Interesting. Thanks. I’m acutely aware that me sniping at the decisions of public health physicians is about as valid as assorted posters on redcafe trying to criticise the tactics of a premier league manager. I just think a point has to come where you treat this like any other viral illness. Diagnosis only matters if someone is sick. When we reach that point will depend on loads of factors and vary from place to place. It just seems a little strange that we’re not yet at that point in a population where 95% are fully vaccinated.
This has been addressed a few times in this thread over the last dozen pages or so. basically they didn't get a high enough proportion of their over 70s vaccinated.
Thanks for that, I should have checked back.
200+ deaths in the UK. Numbers still shock me when I see them, you think I'd be used to it by now.
My sister who lives near Manchester says there are no apparent restrictions anywhere anymore, some people are wearing masks, many don't. I'm sure many people here will confirm this. The end result is high numbers of cases and deaths, unfortunately. In Italy we have 6.5K cases today and it's been holding around that number for a while, and 51 deaths.
We have to show the Green Pass to go inside restaurants, bars and even public transport, and masks are still worn inside shops - many people still wear them outside, too. Certain jobs require the vaccine, this is being enforced. I don't believe the Italians are any more compliant than British people, but solely from what I've seen there seems to be a pretty high level of acceptance.
Vaccine take-up is similar to the UK, although we were later starting here. Half of all 12-18s have been jabbed. Our little village has been stuffed full of people both from other parts of Italy and abroad all through August, and yet we are Covid-free at the moment.
Johnson said there would be a Freedom Day and is willing to see the numbers stay high. I'd rather be in Italy where the changes are incremental.
Bank holiday build up? I was expecting 180-190 yesterday but realised it was Tuesday after holidays. Was wondering why it was still only double digits yesterday.
You're right about the shock.
I'm in the UK at the moment, posting from a 6pm Manchester - London train. I'm the only one in the carriage wearing a mask, and it was the same coming up the other day. Feels quite uncomfortable and I'm looking forward to getting back to Italy where its infinitely more sensible.
I know what you mean. I went to the cinema on Monday and we were pretty much the only ones apart from the staff wearing masks. Definitely felt like we got weird looks, but may have just been overthinking it.
There was only sanitiser at the entrance to the building, screen doors weren’t hooked open when entering, so you had to pull it open by the handle that everyone has touched. Then everyone is obviously going to be eating popcorn etc once inside and having touched the door.
I’m happy to take responsibility myself, but it’s annoying when companies don’t have basic procedures in place to help any more.
Couldn’t agree more with this. Pisses me off so much. It’s pure laziness.
So when are the people living in Europe going to stop wearing masks? I presume never from some of the posts here. Or are you waiting for a booster vaccine?
Presumably when the number of cases go down. And we aren’t constantly hearing about friends and family catching covid. It’s fecking everywhere now so understandable if there’s still a lot of nervousness. But the current surge will definitely end. Mainly through vaccine, partly through exposure to the virus. It will end though. It has to.
I wouldn't mind if mask wearing is here to stay. It's been pretty normal in Japan for around 100 years since the influenza pandemic and then SARS in the early 2000's. Other Asian countries wear them as a matter of course. They kind of make sense on crowded trains and buses regardless of the pandemic.
I'm doubtful they'll stay long term in Europe mind.
I'm doubtful they'll stay long term in Europe mind.
Wearing a mask when you have even a slight sniffle should become the norm as it reduces the spread of all airborne respiratory viruses.
I was weirdly thinking about this overnight. Half awake, half asleep. Might as well brain dump. If we assume Israel has a population of ten million (near enough) they’ve fully vaccinated approximately 80% of their population. Which leaves two million un-vaccinated. We know vaccines aren’t 100% effective at preventing transmission. So let’s assume one million of the eight million vaccinated will catch covid when exposed (although it probably won’t make them very sick). Three million people is a very large number!
Their highest number of cases per day in this surge is approx 10k. If this was to happen every day from now on, this could continue for ten months before everyone who can catch covid does catch covid.
Obviously this won’t happen. Not everyone that can catch covid will catch covid. And a lot of un-vaccinated people are protected from prior exposure. The daily cases will probably get a bit higher before coming down again. The only upside of delta is that the surge seems to end a bit quicker than previous variants.
Anyway, hope this keeps Israel’s case numbers in perspective. It helped me get back to sleep anyway!
I think in the UK now, people have effectively stopped sensibilities like wearing masks. Where I am, people were actually really good with the rules - at least in places like supermarkets. It would be rare to see someone without a mask when it was required. Now, I’d say people still wear them but must be below the 50% point. Which makes me wonder, in many other places (like other nearby places where mask wearing was probably hovering near 50% before the rules changed anyway), I can imagine that it’s back to BAU.
200+ deaths though, still shocks me. At our peak we were at, what, 1k+. So we are at about 20% of that. What worries me though is that when we had those deaths before, we were unvaccinated. Give we have a very good vaccination rate, and given 94% of people have antibodies (I know antibodies aren’t alone a factor in determining how severely one will get ill in future if they catch COVID but I’m not any kind of expert!), 200+ deaths seems pretty high to me. Even 100+ seems high in these circumstances, if you factor in the bank holiday catch up.
Can’t quite get my head around the figures and if they’re as we might have expected or if they’re showing something more concerning.
200+ deaths though, still shocks me. At our peak we were at, what, 1k+. So we are at about 20% of that. What worries me though is that when we had those deaths before, we were unvaccinated. Give we have a very good vaccination rate, and given 94% of people have antibodies (I know antibodies aren’t alone a factor in determining how severely one will get ill in future if they catch COVID but I’m not any kind of expert!), 200+ deaths seems pretty high to me. Even 100+ seems high in these circumstances, if you factor in the bank holiday catch up.
Can’t quite get my head around the figures and if they’re as we might have expected or if they’re showing something more concerning.
The only places I've noticed a relatively high number of people wearing masks is the big supermarkets.
Single day figures aren't very useful, they jump around as local reporting varies. The 7 day rolling figure is around 100/day at the moment. High, and horrible of course, but certainly within what was expected after things reopened.
The number of people in hospital at about 7000 currently is also around the lower end of the models the government was using. Not great for the NHS staff or for patients waiting for other medical problems to be treated, but not outside what was expected.
The case rates are high, around 30k/day. When we were up there pre-vaccine we were seeing death rates of 1000+/day, hospitals overwhelmed. Research from the UK and elsewhere suggests that Delta (to the unvaxxed) may be more deadly than Alpha was - which could have made it even worse.
Basically we're getting along, more people are getting sick than anyone wants, but it's playing out roughly as the numbers for vaccines and for prior infections said it would. People aren't really back to business as usual, but we're close.
If things take a turn for the worse in the winter (as respiratory viruses usually do) then we might have to do more. Right now, the best things any of us can is get vaccinated, wear masks on public transport etc, get tested and stay home if we've got any symptoms and stay away from granny if we've spent the week at a festival...
I just went to a building supplies place here in Italy, and the lady didn't have a mask on as there were no customers. She saw me, clamped her hand over her mouth and ran off to get a mask. We were virtually in the open air.
People are still taking it seriously!
People are still taking it seriously!
Thanks for that. A positive point you made for me there was the delta surge seemingly ending quicker. I think Im trying to work out how it all works out for us in NZ after xmas when our vaccinations are up at a decent level and we start to ease restrictions around incoming people. I have no doubt it will hit us hard even with high vaccination, its just how hard and for how long. The kicking the can down the road thing is rapidly coming to its end so trying to make sense of how the rest of the world is dealing with it gives me an idea of what we have to do to catch up.
Yeah I can see where you’re coming from. Very tough times ahead for NZ, I suspect. The big difference between NZ and countries like UK and Israel is the lack of any baseline immunity from prior exposure. Apparently 94% of the UK population show evidence of exposure to covid during serological testing. So even the millions of un-vaccinated people have some degree of protection. That’s most likely why their delta wave didn’t kick off as badly as, say, India.
Been thinking about you since the Ronaldo news broke! Haven’t seen any posts from you about it in the football forums. Presumably there’s been a bit of a spring in your step this week?
That is such an important point and one I had only considered for the first time yesterday. No baseline immunity from prior exposure. That i think will be our weakest link. Thats the one that will bite hardest.
Yeah it’s going to suck. I still think, on balance, the relatively normal life you’ve had in the 18 months justifies the eradication policy. Plus you’ll probably still suffer less deaths overall compared to most other countries as it’s obviously better to go through your first major wave vaccinated than naive (even if your first wave involves a more deadly/contagious variant). Such a strange situation to be in though. The rest of the world was like someone being caught in a blizzard without a jacket. New Zealand now have to deliberately walk out into a much worse blizzard. You do have a jacket but it’s going to be miserable all the same.
Not to downplay NZ's attitude to handling covid (which has been great) but reopening was the very first thing I thought about as soon as you locked down over a year ago.
It's in every biological disaster movie when those that seek shelter are in the worst possible position if others survive. The Morlocks?
Ha, had long ago forgotten about The Morlocks. love itNot to downplay NZ's attitude to handling covid (which has been great) but reopening was the very first thing I thought about as soon as you locked down over a year ago.
It's in every biological disaster movie when those that seek shelter are in the worst possible position if others survive. The Morlocks?
I'm not sure if it was the joy at him coming back to us, or the relief at him not going to City - but for sure, it was a nice break from reality
I do pity the ones who'd already burned their shirts and had the tattoos erased of course.94% before delta had arrived? That would be pretty amazing, I was wondering how many really caught it.
Not before delta. Think that 94% is fairly recent. Probably a good bit lower pre-delta but enough to take the edge off.
Well the cases and deaths are on the rise. That isn't called a spike apparently, it could be called a Colin for all it matters its concerning.
Cases are down over the last 7 days actually. With deaths up 0.9% over the same period.
To be honest, it feels that people want this to be the case when perhaps the evidence is not as strong for it as one might think.