SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[LazyRed-Ninja]

You’ve contradicted yourself there. I have a medical degree so I wouldn’t dream of trying to tell an astrophysicist I intended to use “critical analysis” on every piece of advice they give me relevant to their field of expertise. Because I don’t have the academic background to make any sense of the evidence base on which they base their opinions.

This whole “do your own research” mentality completely misses the point when it’s being used by people that don’t have the qualifications you need to do that research properly. So you can’t simultaneously listen to experts and do your own “critical analysis”.

Don’t take this too personally but in my discussions with you so far (in this thread and via PM) it couldn’t be more obvious that you lack a lot of the most basic tools you need to property understand what’s being discussed. Never mind challenge people who are way more qualified than you are. This doesn’t mean you’re slow or stupid, or poorly educated. It just means you haven’t had the very specific training required to understand the extremely complex concepts relevant to the issues here.

You have associated the highlighted parts. They are meant to be understood separately. The ones who have the qualifications in their
respective fields ought to be listened to, considering they have studied their specific field and hence have more knowledge then those who haven't.

The other part about critical analysis, could be interpret as a general thumb rule in life in general when one wants to learn more. You therefore go
to legitimate sources for a better understanding, rather then lets say an average individual with an unsubstantiated opinion. You have understood those two statements as associative, which is not how they should be interpret. Your argument is therefore invalid, since the premise of it is that you associated two sentences together which were not meant to be understood together. You listen to expert(s), and you use critical analysis when you want to study a certain subject, by differentiating legitimate and illegitimate sources.

I'd propose that the overwhelming majority of the posters on this thread don't have a 'medical qualification', does that mean they are not entitled to have an opinion? Sure, when statements are made that go against consensus within the scientific fields, that ought to be corrected which is the rational thing to do.

I also respectfully disagree with the statement of lacking the basic tools to understand the topic discussed. I've cited legitimate sources on this thread linking to the WHO and other studies to provide another perspective, not as an generally accepted consensus in regards to that specific subject. It would also highly arrogant of one person to say that they are fully equipped to understood the ins and outs of this broad topic of Covid. Hence, the tools are to cite sources and to interact with fellow posters to get a better understanding through dialogue. I've also emphasized that vaccination is vital to get this pandemic under control, which is a consensus and accepted in general. I therefore fail to see where i haven't understood 'the basics.

The other subject discussed was in regards to natural immunity and through vaccination and i've cited sources , without proposing that conclusion as an absolute truth, that would be unscientific. Don't take this personally, but in my discussions so far it couldnt be more obvious that you at times (on many points times) havent understood the essence of my argument. That doesn't mean your slow, stupid, or poorly educated! (little bit of banter).

Nonetheless, life is about being better not bitter. Having an open mind and the willingness to learn should be a requirement of any open, rational and
logical conversation!

You do have to forgive my on me english at times, it isnt my first language

 

[massi83]

You have associated the highlighted parts. They are meant to be understood separately. The ones who have the qualifications in their
respective fields ought to be listened to, considering they have studied their specific field and hence have more knowledge then those who haven't.

The other part about critical analysis, could be interpret as a general thumb rule in life in general when one wants to learn more. You therefore go
to legitimate sources for a better understanding, rather then lets say an average individual with an unsubstantiated opinion. You have understood those two statements as associative, which is not how they should be interpret. Your argument is therefore invalid, since the premise of it is that you associated two sentences together which were not meant to be understood together. You listen to expert(s), and you use critical analysis when you want to study a certain subject, by differentiating legitimate and illegitimate sources.

I'd propose that the overwhelming majority of the posters on this thread don't have a 'medical qualification', does that mean they are not entitled to have an opinion? Sure, when statements are made that go against consensus within the scientific fields, that ought to be corrected which is the rational thing to do.

I also respectfully disagree with the statement of lacking the basic tools to understand the topic discussed. I've cited legitimate sources on this thread linking to the WHO and other studies to provide another perspective, not as an generally accepted consensus in regards to that specific subject. It would also highly arrogant of one person to say that they are fully equipped to understood the ins and outs of this broad topic of Covid. Hence, the tool to cite sources and to interact with fellow posters to get a better understanding through dialogue. I've also emphasized that vaccination is vital to get this pandemic under control, which is a consensus and accepted in general. I therefore fail to see where i haven't understood 'the basics.

The other subject discussed was in regards to natural immunity and legitimate and i've cited sources to substantiate that claim, without proposing that conclusion as an absolute truth, that would be unscientific. Don't take this personally, but in my discussions so far it couldnt be more obvious at that you at many points haven't understood the essence of my argument. That doesn't mean your slow, stupid, or poorly educated! (little bit of banter).

Nonetheless, life is about being better not bitter. Having an open mind and the willingness to learn should be a requirement of any open, rational and
logical conversation!

You do have to forgive my on me english at times, it isnt my first language

Are you trying to bore us to death?

 

[LazyRed-Ninja]

And if he was?

That would be in line with what we already know.

quote:
'Breakthrough infections are to be expected with any vaccine. Fortunately, breakthrough Covid cases tend to be mild and asymptomatic.
Even with regards to the delta variant, most fully vaccinated people who test positive don’t have symptoms, the World Health Organization said July 13.''

Abbott has no symptoms so that would be in line with current data that breakthrough cases tent to be mild and asymptomatic.

 

[Wibble]

If he was it will probably save his life.

True.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Here our Federal.and State governments would love to let them go as soon as possible but can't as letting go people die is far more frowned upon.

Even WA who are the most reluctant to unlock when wecare better vaccinated are mainly taking this stance on the back of a landslide electoral victory based on how well they kept everyone safe - basically covid free through the whole pandemic. They want to open up but will lag slightly - that is all.

That's good to hear and not unexpected as you don't have a nanny state party in power right now. I don't mean to imply that we shouldn't have strict conditions as we're still in the middle of this thing and at a very uncertain point but when it's all said and done I don't have a lot of faith in some parties willingly letting go of things they've enacted in response to the pandemic.

 

[Wibble]

That's good to hear and not unexpected as you don't have a nanny state party in power right now. I don't mean to imply that we shouldn't have strict conditions as we're still in the middle of this thing and at a very uncertain point but when it's all said and done I don't have a lot of faith in some parties willingly letting go of things they've enacted in response to the pandemic.

Oddly we do but those who normally love that sort of stuff (NSW and Federal government mainly) have been the least enthusiastic for lockdowns as their mates at the top end of town don't care about deaths as long as their cash registers keep going (they entirely miss the irony that lockdowns etc have enriched them enormously).

 

[mav_9me]

How are people still spending time arguing with that guy?

I know right!

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Oddly we do but those who normally love that sort of stuff (NSW and Federal government mainly) have been the least enthusiastic for lockdowns as their mates at the top end of town don't care about deaths as long as their cash registers keep going (they entirely miss the irony that lockdowns etc have enriched them enormously).

My bad I had the wrong idea about Scotty from Marketing!

 

[SmashedHombre]

We're back on lockdown level 4 here in NZ. One case in Auckland yesterday and the same day they put the entire country on the highest level LD. Have to respect that kinda decisive leadership.

 

[Stack]

Up to 120 cases expected. Genome sequencing linked back to NSW. https://tinyurl.com/4ejscxhm

 

[Wibble]

My bad I had the wrong idea about Scotty from Marketing!

#scottyfrommarketing loves a nanny state as long as it doesn't nanny the top end of town. The unemployed, refugees (especially if brown), single mthers, Aboriginal people and all the usual targets he loves to nanny. Polluters, miners, billionaires etc etc - they don't need regulation (or taxing really) as they are "people like us". I hate him with a heated passion the temperature of the surface of the sun.

It is the State Premiers who have generally been the adults in the room during this pandemic. Even Gladys in NSW, who has eventually totally fecked us trying to hedge her bets by not going hard or early enough in this outbreak, is a million time better than #scottyfrommarketing.

#scottyfrommarketing during a crisis (assuming he doesn't go to Hawaii for a holiday)

 

[Ecstatic]

We're back on lockdown level 4 here in NZ. One case in Auckland yesterday and the same day they put the entire country on the highest level LD. Have to respect that kinda decisive leadership.

The tyranny of the minority. Terrifying...

If there are 3 cases, I guess the solution the local government would propose would be to urge all the population to stay at home 24/24 7/7 and wear a face covering at home, especially when it comes to sleeping...

 

[Wibble]

We're back on lockdown level 4 here in NZ. One case in Auckland yesterday and the same day they put the entire country on the highest level LD. Have to respect that kinda decisive leadership.

Agreed. If only Gladys had done this 7 weeks ago we would have been out of lockdown by now and covid free again.

 

[Wibble]

The tyranny of the minority. Terrifying...

If there are 3 cases, I guess the solution the local government would propose would be to urge all the population to stay at home 24/24 7/7 and wear a face covering at home, especially when it comes to sleeping...

Erm????

If serious what are you on about?

 

[11101]

We're back on lockdown level 4 here in NZ. One case in Auckland yesterday and the same day they put the entire country on the highest level LD. Have to respect that kinda decisive leadership.

Do you? NZ handled the early pandemic beautifully but now? Much of the world is open and back to normal whilst NZ's borders remain closed indefinitely and vaccination rates are the lowest in the developed world. Continually shutting everything down every time there is an outbreak is not a long term strategy.

 

[Pexbo]

The tyranny of the minority. Terrifying...

If there are 3 cases, I guess the solution the local government would propose would be to urge all the population to stay at home 24/24 7/7 and wear a face covering at home, especially when it comes to sleeping...

New Zealand have a grand total of 26 deaths during the 18 months of pandemic, the UK had 170 yesterday alone.

In the last 18 months, New Zealand has been running pretty much business as usual internally with very few lock downs, mass gatherings allowed - sporting events, music events, you name it.

Locking down hard and early breaks the chain and means you don’t end up locking down for months on end.

 

[Wibble]

Do you? NZ handled the early pandemic beautifully but now? Much of the world is open and back to normal whilst NZ's borders remain closed indefinitely and vaccination rates are the lowest in the developed world. Continually shutting everything down every time there is an outbreak is not a long term strategy.

It is the very best strategy until the population is hugely vaccinated. I'd hate to get to the place much of the world is were hundreds of deaths a day are considered acceptable.

 

[Wibble]

The only major criticism you could make of NZ is they didn't order enough vaccine early enough. With Australia you can add not locking down NSW hard enough 7 week ago.

That said any chance of me ever leaving Australia (or possibly NZ) has now gone as I now don't trust anywhere else will keep me safe next time there is a pandemic. And there may well be a next time.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

It is the very best strategy until the population is hugely vaccinated. I'd hate to get to the place much of the world is were hundreds of deaths a day are considered acceptable.

I don’t think hundreds are considered ”acceptable” for any country with a similar population size to NZ in fairness. Think Norway, Finland, Ireland.

All countries want to get down influensa levels, which is around 100 for a country the size of the UK right?

It’ll be the same for NZ for what is “acceptable” once they finally open.

 

[Stack]

Do you? NZ handled the early pandemic beautifully but now? Much of the world is open and back to normal whilst NZ's borders remain closed indefinitely and vaccination rates are the lowest in the developed world. Continually shutting everything down every time there is an outbreak is not a long term strategy.

The borders arent closed indefinitely. There was a recent plan announced on the reopening of the borders. The current lockdown is the first in 7 months. We have been slow in the vaccination process and that could definitely have been better. Our long term strategy revolves around opening up once the majority of our population is vaccinated, sometime around December. First we will let in more essential workers, then foreign students and then tourists from preferred countries. We also have a plan to allow citizens who go overseas on holiday to self quarantine at home if fully vaccinated when returning. We are just doing things a little slower than everywhere else because we got lucky with certain factors.

 

[Wibble]

I don’t think hundreds are considered ”acceptable” for any country with a similar population size to NZ in fairness. Think Latvia, Norway, Finland, Ireland.

All countries want to get down influensa levels, which is around 100 for a country the size of the UK right?

It’ll be the same for NZ for what is “acceptable” once they finally open.

All the reporting from the UK seems to make zero fuss about well over 100 deaths per day. We are just over a third of the population of the UK and 40+ deaths per day would be considered almost a national disaster. Our worst day was 20% of that and it is usually 5% and that is often headline creating stuff.
You are bound to have deaths after you finally open up even after mass vaccination but it won't be anywhere near the death toll elsewhere.

No way will we totally open up even when we reach 80% of adults vaccinated either. Vaccinated Aussies will be able to travel more easily but quarantine won't go away quickly and interstate travel may well remain restricted to a degree.

 

[jojojo]

Do you? NZ handled the early pandemic beautifully but now? Much of the world is open and back to normal whilst NZ's borders remain closed indefinitely and vaccination rates are the lowest in the developed world. Continually shutting everything down every time there is an outbreak is not a long term strategy.

They've got a strategy. Vaccinate everyone who wants it with Pfizer in the next few months. They should be getting supplies in time to meet that schedule. Meanwhile they'll try minimising loss of life and then reopen everything again (internally).

It's going to be tough for NZ to adapt to the idea of acceptable case rates and deaths, but they've shown a lot of unity so far. Hopefully they'll be able to maintain that once borders reopen and outbreaks can't be so really controlled.

 

[Balljy]

I don’t think hundreds are considered ”acceptable” for any country with a similar population size to NZ in fairness. Think Norway, Finland, Ireland.

All countries want to get down influensa levels, which is around 100 for a country the size of the UK right?

It’ll be the same for NZ for what is “acceptable” once they finally open.

I may be misunderstanding what you meant but influenza deaths in the UK are way above 100? Deaths involving flu are normally in the 20,000 to 25,000 range and just from influenza between 1,000 and 1,500 per year.

Edit - I guess you mean per day, but then 100 seems slightly on the high side, but probably about right during the winter months.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I don’t think hundreds are considered ”acceptable” for any country with a similar population size to NZ in fairness. Think Norway, Finland, Ireland.

All countries want to get down influensa levels, which is around 100 for a country the size of the UK right?

It’ll be the same for NZ for what is “acceptable” once they finally open.

I don't like us being compared to NZ. Zero Covid is impossible when you share an open border with a country that probably handled Covid worse than anyone. If we had taken an all island approach then maybe, but even then, we are so interconnected with the UK that it would have been impossible.

I don't think we did a bad job anyway, our death rate per capita was relatively low. We made a balls of Christmas and nursing homes like many and some of our lockdowns were excessively long (but you could blame that on our terrible healthcare system as much as the government). We've also had a pretty incredible vaccine rollout.

 

[Ecstatic]

Erm????

If serious what are you on about?

Population: 5 million
Cases: 1 person ( the 1st case in 6 months)
The last Covid death: 13 February
Outcome: nationwide lockdown
Comment: very proportionate and sensible policy (not sure if I am serious here)

New Zealand have a grand total of 26 deaths during the 18 months of pandemic, the UK had 170 yesterday alone.

In the last 18 months, New Zealand has been running pretty much business as usual internally with very few lock downs, mass gatherings allowed - sporting events, music events, you name it.

Locking down hard and early breaks the chain and means you don’t end up locking down for months on end.

Thanks for the information

 

[11101]

The only major criticism you could make of NZ is they didn't order enough vaccine early enough. With Australia you can add not locking down NSW hard enough 7 week ago.

That said any chance of me ever leaving Australia (or possibly NZ) has now gone as I now don't trust anywhere else will keep me safe next time there is a pandemic. And there may well be a next time.

Well that's one part of it.

What are they going to do when they reach (lets say) 80% vaccinated. The remaining 1 million people either can't or won't get vaccinated. They can't keep the borders closed forever and they can't keep locking everything down every time there is an outbreak, so eventually those people will all catch Covid one way or another with zero existing immunity. That's going to be a lot of cases and a lot of deaths for a country with no experience in handling them. The hospitals haven't seen major outbreaks and the government doesn't know what control measures work.

When this is all going on the rest of the developed world will have been back to normal for months if not years.

Their strategy was based on the assumption that if they kept Covid out, they could wait for it to be eradicated somehow. Now we know that's not going to be possible.

 

[Ecstatic]

What NZ is doing is to find a pretext in order to maintain the political pressure and make sure the whole population will be vaccinated.

#Blackmail

 

[Wibble]

Population: 5 million
Cases: 1 person ( the 1st case in 6 months)
The last Covid death: 13 February
Outcome: nationwide lockdown
Comment: very proportionate and sensible policy (not sure if I am serious here)

The lack of deaths and cases is precisely because they locked down fast and hard. They have then largely been free of covid and lockdowns.

 

[Wibble]

What NZ is doing is to find a pretext in order to maintain the political pressure and make sure the whole population will be vaccinated.

#Blackmail

On no. Those evil tyrants trying to encourage people to take a sensible health measure to protect health, lives and the economy. Where will the horror end?

 

[gormless]

The only major criticism you could make of NZ is they didn't order enough vaccine early enough. With Australia you can add not locking down NSW hard enough 7 week ago.

That said any chance of me ever leaving Australia (or possibly NZ) has now gone as I now don't trust anywhere else will keep me safe next time there is a pandemic. And there may well be a next time.

I think unfortunately Australia have let Delta get too much of a foothold. It’s very different to past variants and you guys may be in for a rough time

 

[Wibble]

Well that's one part of it.

What are they going to do when they reach (lets say) 80% vaccinated. The remaining 1 million people either can't or won't get vaccinated. They can't keep the borders closed forever and they can't keep locking everything down every time there is an outbreak, so eventually those people will all catch Covid one way or another with zero existing immunity. That's going to be a lot of cases and a lot of deaths for a country with no experience in handling them. The hospitals haven't seen major outbreaks and the government doesn't know what control measures work.

When this is all going on the rest of the developed world will have been back to normal for months if not years.

Their strategy was based on the assumption that if they kept Covid out, they could wait for it to be eradicated somehow. Now we know that's not going to be possible.

We will unlock gradually after that and I'd guess adjust accordingly to case numbers. I'd guess 3-500 cases a day might just be considered acceptable but hospitalisation/ICU/ventilated numbers may be more important. Hopefully by then we can vaccinate virtually all kids and get up to 90% of the whole population which might just reach HIT but more like means we can actually start to treat it like we do influenza.

 

[Wibble]

I think unfortunately Australia have let Delta get too much of a foothold. It’s very different to past variants and you guys may be in for a rough time

It is more than possible that Gladys shit the bed when she refused to lock down properly 7 weeks ago. I'd guess we will reach vaccination targets before NSW would have a chance of eliminating again.

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

I may be misunderstanding what you meant but influenza deaths in the UK are way above 100? Deaths involving flu are normally in the 20,000 to 25,000 range and just from influenza between 1,000 and 1,500 per year.

Edit - I guess you mean per day, but then 100 seems slightly on the high side, but probably about right during the winter months.

Your edit was correct. Average in UK is what, 80ish a day? In winter months that’ll be 140 or so. In a bad flu year plenty higher.

Wibble doesn’t like that we see that as ”acceptable” as Australia/NZ don’t, yet they’ve always found a similar per capita number of flu deaths perfectly fine.

I think Covid deaths at a level of flu absolutely is acceptable and a fact of life that all countries will eventually have to deal with, be it in 5 months or 5 years.

 

[F-Red]

What NZ is doing is to find a pretext in order to maintain the political pressure and make sure the whole population will be vaccinated.

#Blackmail

What were they supposed to do? Wait until there was 100 cases before locking down?

 

[Regulus Arcturus Black]

What were they supposed to do? Wait until there was 100 cases before locking down?

NZ had an opportunity and took it superbly, so yeah, of course they are bang on to stamp it out until they get to 85%+ vaccinated. Unless of course they end up in months and months of lockdown, but they’ve already proven they can stamp it out in a very short timeframe so they must try and the earlier the better for them.

 

[Stack]

Your edit was correct. Average in UK is what, 80ish a day? In winter months that’ll be 140 or so. In a bad flu year plenty higher.

Wibble doesn’t like that we see that as ”acceptable” as Australia/NZ don’t, yet they’ve always found a similar per capita number of flu deaths perfectly fine.

I think Covid deaths at a level of flu absolutely is acceptable and a fact of life that all countries will eventually have to deal with.

We do know that at some point in the near future the virus will rip through the population and those unvaccinated will get hit with it. Someone earlier mentioned a rough 80% vaccination rate leaving 1 million unvaccinated and thats a pretty fair estimate. So we are potentially looking at a decent number of people getting sick and dying from it. However there is a silver lining for us and one where we have got lucky. We have been able to watch what everyone else has done and a lot of our new policy decisions are a direct result of learning from other countries handling of things. If we learn those lessons well enough we have a chance of keeping illnesses and deaths much lower than we initially expected. However its still going to bite us in the arse once it arrives next year.
We have been very lucky so far, I just hope we can adjust the luck side of things to prudent management once we open up.

 

[Balljy]

Your edit was correct. Average in UK is what, 80ish a day? In winter months that’ll be 140 or so. In a bad flu year plenty higher.

Wibble doesn’t like that we see that as ”acceptable” as Australia/NZ don’t, yet they’ve always found a similar per capita number of flu deaths perfectly fine.

I think Covid deaths at a level of flu absolutely is acceptable and a fact of life that all countries will eventually have to deal with, be it in 5 months or 5 years.

There will also be a fairly substantial overlap between the two as well due to people with existing conditions being particularly vulnerable to both diseases. I agree that we will have to accept that we get a substantial amount of deaths due to Covid going forward like we do with influenza and we will have to wait to see how much they overlap with each other.

 

[Hanks]

Ontario has officially reached 75% full-vaccinated status for its 12+ population, even 11-year-olds can get Pfizer starting today. meanwhile, on the same day yesterday, it was announced that all re-opening plans have been put on pause indefinitely and how a 4th wave is coming and we're in for a very difficult "fall and winter" according to the main health advisor of the province.

Canadian external borders are to be opened to foreigners starting Sept. 7, but only those vaccinated with Western-approved big4 vaccines can skip the 14-day quarantine. So much of Asia (Sinopharm), South America & Russia (Sputnik) are still unable to travel technically.

On the other hand, the Federal gov't has called for an election on the first day of fall...

So much mixed messaging, hard to believe who to believe anymore. Headscratcher...


SIDENOTE: Is it me or is it absolutely incredible how Poland has managed to swerve Delta so far? I don't live there anymore, but checking stats, their daily cases has been stable at 100-200 a day for nearly 2 months. All the more incredible considering how many Poles live in the UK and travel back and forth. Even neighbouring Germany (twice as big population) is experiencing thousands of daily cases and there are countless travels from Poland to Germany and back everyday. Has Poland reached total herd immunity ??

 

[golden_blunder]

I wouldn’t believe those polish numbers. I know loads a d they say that anti-vaccine and belief that the virus isn’t real is strong

 

[Stack]

I suspect the good times for NZ are coming to an end, the reality of this Delta variant looks like the elimination policy is no longer viable. If this current lockdown actually succeeds Im betting it will be the last one that works. The race is now on to get as many vaccinated as possible before we finally get swamped by Delta. Looks to me like we have nearly run out of road to kick the can down.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/he...navirus-elimination-plan-in-the-time-of-delta