This is it. Scotlands case rate fell post 1st July when schools closed, we're seeing the impact now a week after a lot of schools have closed. We'll see further drops this week off the back of more schools closing on Thursday. The bump for 'freedom' day is what people are expecting a spike on, I'm not so sure we'll see on due to schools finishing and it'll be washed up in the general decline.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
This is it. Scotlands case rate fell post 1st July when schools closed, we're seeing the impact now a week after a lot of schools have closed. We'll see further drops this week off the back of more schools closing on Thursday. The bump for 'freedom' day is what people are expecting a spike on, I'm not so sure we'll see on due to schools finishing and it'll be washed up in the general decline.
but the fall is far bigger than the fall in the number of tests not being carried out
We saw a similar drop in Scotland a couple of weeks ago, and that drop has now shown through on hospitalisations. So, the case drop there was definitely real.
The fact that the case curves across the regions are similar may be significant as well. If it was just about testing rates then you wouldn't expect that. Maybe the Euros ending, schools closing, students going home and the good weather arriving have all combined. Plus, lots of people quarantined by getting tests or as contacts maybe taking a bit of the heat out - we'll also see an increasing effect from people getting vaxxed in June/July as well.
That said, it does look like the Euros behaved like a bunch of super-spreader (and mini-super-spreader events in the case of families/friends getting together for the matches). There's plenty of potential for those with the new openings, but it is impressive how fast the numbers rise/flatten/fall with Delta. Maybe something to do with symptoms arriving earlier (after 4 days?) - maybe the infectious period tails off early as well?
The fact that the case curves across the regions are similar may be significant as well. If it was just about testing rates then you wouldn't expect that. Maybe the Euros ending, schools closing, students going home and the good weather arriving have all combined. Plus, lots of people quarantined by getting tests or as contacts maybe taking a bit of the heat out - we'll also see an increasing effect from people getting vaxxed in June/July as well.
That said, it does look like the Euros behaved like a bunch of super-spreader (and mini-super-spreader events in the case of families/friends getting together for the matches). There's plenty of potential for those with the new openings, but it is impressive how fast the numbers rise/flatten/fall with Delta. Maybe something to do with symptoms arriving earlier (after 4 days?) - maybe the infectious period tails off early as well?
There was a mini trend of this with the Bolton outbreak originally, quick and aggressive peak and then dropped off quickly. This just looks to be mirrored on the wider scale as the variant became dominant.
If it is down to schools closing, are cases really dropping or are we just not catching them with standardized testing? Either way, given the focus is now really on hospital admissions/more serious cases, the news the past few days is very promising.
To be honest the hospital admissions have been promising on this wave due to the vaccine impact. 3rd & 4th images on this tweet show the impact vs the prior wave.
Probably @horsechoker cousin horsepuncher
Will be interested to hear if there were many pinged after being stuck in huge numbers at the airports the last few days
No sophistication, anyone can punch a horse but where's the grace? Choking is an art, it requires skill, planning, experience.
Yeah but I hear your outback cousins have no class
Kangaroochoker is a proper mad bastard, a kangaroo will feck you up like a human. Horses are just big but possess no fighting skills.
The public health messaging around masks in the US, starting from Fauci last April, and culminating in a clearly premature no-masks earlier this month, is a total disaster that has greased the gears for Republicans to make it a culture war issue, and for their state govts to have anti-mask mandates in place.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-vaccinated-in-us-and-eu-reckless-says-labour
I don't understand this, the UK is already allowing people who are double jabbed in the UK to return without quarantine but Angela Rayner doesn't think this should apply to people double jabbed in the EU or US because of a new variant that doesn't exist yet.
Does she think that only people jabbed outside the UK will carry the variant?
I don't understand this, the UK is already allowing people who are double jabbed in the UK to return without quarantine but Angela Rayner doesn't think this should apply to people double jabbed in the EU or US because of a new variant that doesn't exist yet.
Does she think that only people jabbed outside the UK will carry the variant?
Labour has just as many clueless morons as The Tories, don't forget that. I mean what couldn't a career politician with a part time qualification in sign language and social care tell us about epidemiology?
One party could say the sky was blue and the other would call it shameful or reckless or some other nonsense. Thankfully the actual experts all say its fine to recognise each others vaccinations.
I think they're caught up in the same old loop. Rather than focus on positives - like fighting for better funding for sick pay and self-quarantine, or on looking for why some people are not taking up the vaccine, they get caught up in a "lets act tough" rhetoric. I think we're at the stage in the UK where we need more carrots and less sticks (and I include flagwaving about border controls in the sticks column) to encourage vaccine takeup, help people staying home from work when they're sick, and better practices (like improved ventilation).
There's also the influence of the zero covid dream and the whole idea that "any death is one too many" - well, sure and that's self-evident but it isn't a realistic option and we need to actually start valuing human interaction and quality of life as part of the equation. Labour needs to be highlighting the inequalities that the pandemic has exposed - moaning about vaccinated people visiting the UK is just a headline, it's not a policy.
BBC talking like we're about to get official confirmation of the travel changes:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362
I wonder if they'll drop the day 2 test for the fully vaccinated by the end of the summer too?
@Penna - looks like the EU vaccinated = no UK quarantine (from amber countries - but looks like no change for France just yet) change starts on Monday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362
I wouldn't be surprised but for now it remains in place.
Cheers jojojo, that's good news.
Last day of isolation tomorrow my brother has Covid, i know we are being told it spreads easier then ever the Delta version, but in reality without being overly cautious 9 days in and no one else has caught it or showing symptoms.
I'm no doctor but it would appear in a normal environment it needs some very close contact, either way i'm just glad i haven't ended up in a non stop cycle 10 days as another person catches it.
I'm no doctor but it would appear in a normal environment it needs some very close contact, either way i'm just glad i haven't ended up in a non stop cycle 10 days as another person catches it.
It seems random as hell how it transmits tbh, the Mrs had it and was isolating in a house with 5 others and nobody else caught it.
Similar findings in Italy to the USA on fully-vaccinated versus unvaccinated/not fully-vaccinated deaths from Covid. In six months there have been 35,776 deaths, only 423 were completely vaccinated and they were on average older with more pre-existing health issues.
https://www.thelocal.it/20210728/italy-says-99-percent-of-covid-deaths-werent-fully-vaccinated/
On the other hand, some findings come out of the US that while they’re still very effective at preventing symptoms, they don’t seem as effective at preventing transmission…
Wondering if anyone can help me out.
With the news yesterday that the government is now advising pregnant women to have the vaccine my wife is understandably stressed about what is the right thing to do for her and the baby. She is 21 weeks pregnant so heading towards the 3rd trimester which is when most complications happen. However, her biggest concern is that the baby could have side effects long term from the vaccine.
I believe (from bits picked up from different studies) that due to how the vaccine works mRNA has less risks than say a live vaccine, but I'm struggling to word it correctly to allay her fears. I know there are some much more knowledgeable posters than me around on here, so has anyone read studies with actual data regarding the vaccine or the make up of the vaccine and why it's not likely to cause problems further down the line.
With the news yesterday that the government is now advising pregnant women to have the vaccine my wife is understandably stressed about what is the right thing to do for her and the baby. She is 21 weeks pregnant so heading towards the 3rd trimester which is when most complications happen. However, her biggest concern is that the baby could have side effects long term from the vaccine.
I believe (from bits picked up from different studies) that due to how the vaccine works mRNA has less risks than say a live vaccine, but I'm struggling to word it correctly to allay her fears. I know there are some much more knowledgeable posters than me around on here, so has anyone read studies with actual data regarding the vaccine or the make up of the vaccine and why it's not likely to cause problems further down the line.
Can't help you here, just want to express some support for you. Her concerns are understandable as she is carrying the baby and she would feel guilty if anything happens to the baby. Explaining the science to her is useful but might not be sufficient. Take it slow and don't rush her into a decision.
Yeah I fully understand the worries and although I'm not skeptical of the vaccines in the slightest, I still have that same worry of the unknown, however as you say I can put my mind to rest by reading the science behind it, whereas it will likely take a bit more for the wife. Getting the science behind it is more for her anyway as she wants as much information as possible before making a decision.
If it helps I’m a doctor working in obstetrics and my pregnant partner has just had hers and I didn’t have any hesitancy whatsoever in her having it.
Congrats!
Pass the message on dude
It does thanks I'll let her know
Seems pretty sensible and shows the importance of getting vaccinated. Ultimately we do need to run a service as well, its been close to impossible at times.
Quick question though, it differentiates between those who are PUI for variants of concern and those who are not. Has the situation in Ireland not reached the stage where delta is the most common variant? Are you guys sequencing everything that quickly that you immediately know whether someone is delta or not or am I missing something with that bit?
No. You’re spot on. Every case here is delta now. And that guidance hasn’t caught up yet.
FFS, crazy to think how on top of things we'd be if we were still dealing with alpha.
I have that same thought all the time. And remember what a nightmare alpha seemed like when it first started spreading!
We experienced the same stress. My wife's 20 weeks pregnant with our first and we were very worried about whether or not to have the vaccine. Spoke to our midwife, spoke to our doctor, neither of which were decisive, but my wife works in a school and at the end of the day we decided that we'd rather take the vaccine than risk catching Covid proper.
She had her second Pfizer jab last week, and so far so good, no side effects other than the sore arm. Baby was looking fab on the 20-week scan, and though it's impossible to know what the future holds, we're pleased we've gotten it done and out the way. She now feels a bit safer at work and in everyday life. I've planned to take her for a week away later this month, and I don't think we'd have gone had we not both been fully vaccinated.
All that said, I know how worrying it was making the decision, so I would say don't put too much pressure on her; do what feels right for you. Wish you both all the best with your pregnancy.
Yeah I've basically given her my opinion, but told her I'll back her decision 100% as at the end of the day it's her body that's carrying the child so I'm not going to dictate to her what to do.
Woke up with a sore throat and a headache this morning for the first time in years. Got tested at noon (first time). Results can take up to 48h so self isolating untill then. Fingers crossed it's not covid. Am not fully vaccinated yet (had first shot of moderna 3 weeks ago)
Can you get hold of some lateral flow tests before then? Not the most reliable of course, but at least you might know what you’re dealing with if it is positive.