SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Wibble said:
Add 1 SD error bars to that data and there is virtually 100% overlap. With SD error bars a significant gap (usually about half the size of the bars themselves), and not just no overlap between bars, will be present when there is a significant difference. In those cases the SD error bars are almost 100% overlapped for each data point so the chances of there being a significant difference is close to nil.
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Jesus Wibs, you’re like a dog with a bone! You’re also wrong. You don’t know what size the SD bars would be on this graph. It’s a massive sample size, so they could be very small. Without doing the maths (which neither you nor I have the time, inclination or information to do) it makes everything else you say about these data redundant.

Statistical nit-picking aside, the most obvious flaw in that graph is the absence of numbers from years prior to 2017. That seems to be a really obvious way in which the tweet might be misleading. And the hashtag shows there’s an agenda at play here.
 
Hancock doing a press conference at 5

Guessing its another call for everyone to get the vaccine if it is available to them.

Re June 21st, I feel that Boris should just come out and say it's going to be delayed by at least 1 month so we have more solid data re Indian variance/spread/and vaccine efficacy against it
 
Tibs said:
Hancock doing a press conference at 5

Guessing its another call for everyone to get the vaccine if it is available to them.

Re June 21st, I feel that Boris should just come out and say it's going to be delayed by at least 1 month so we have more solid data re Indian variance/spread/and vaccine efficacy against it
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perhaps hes throwing hancock under the bus to deliver the bad news (ref 21st June) so boris can roll up in a few weeks and be the hero that opens the pubs properly.... make it a bank holiday and call it Boris day
 
Pogue Mahone said:


:(

Have to say I get a bit judgey when I see anyone wearing disposable masks. No need for them. Wash and reuse everyone. Please.
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it's not just face coverings either. Look at the amount of coffee cups being wasted again, just as people were really starting to adapt to using keep cups instead. Or all the plastic packaging around single bakery items etc. in supermarkets. It's a disaster.

I've seen a few places in Dublin start to allow keep cups again, thankfully.
 
Massive Spanner said:
it's not just face coverings either. Look at the amount of coffee cups being wasted again, just as people were really starting to adapt to using keep cups instead. Or all the plastic packaging around single bakery items etc. in supermarkets. It's a disaster.

I've seen a few places in Dublin start to allow keep cups again, thankfully.
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It breaks my heart. Fecking individually plastic wrapped croissants and cookies. The real killer is that the movement against single use plastic was gaining momentum when this poxy pandemic hit.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
It breaks my heart. Fecking individually plastic wrapped croissants and cookies. The real killer is that the movement against single use plastic was gaining momentum when this poxy pandemic hit.
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Governments are going to need a lot of tax revenues post pandemic.

Single use plastic tax would probably be one of the taxes more acceptable to people.

Hit companies in the pocket and make sure that single use plastic is by far the most expensive way of packaging goods

That seems like the only logical couse of action I can see... tax revenues short term driving longer term behaviour change
 
I'd like to know what the UK's (and West's) appetite for another lockdown is, assuming the B1617.2 variant brings up your case numbers close to recent highs as it is more transmissible especially amongst children and can apparently incubate for longer without being picked up.

Here in Singapore, we are going through our first lockdown in 10 months despite a 40% vaccination rate.
 
Pronewbie said:
I'd like to know what the UK's (and West's) appetite for another lockdown is, assuming the B1617.2 variant brings up your case numbers close to recent highs as it is more transmissible especially amongst children and can apparently incubate for longer without being picked up.

Here in Singapore, we are going through our first lockdown in 10 months despite a 40% vaccination rate.
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I'm guessing zero. Already noticing a fair few of the older population who have been vaxxed no longer give a damn either.
 
Pronewbie said:
I'd like to know what the UK's (and West's) appetite for another lockdown is, assuming the B1617.2 variant brings up your case numbers close to recent highs as it is more transmissible especially amongst children and can apparently incubate for longer without being picked up.

Here in Singapore, we are going through our first lockdown in 10 months despite a 40% vaccination rate.
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Limited I would say...

An extension of the current level of lockdown would be a lot more pallitable to most than either the levels of restriction being increased or in the scenario where restrictions are lifted and then reimposed I think you would see pretty low complience in those circustances (at least till things got out of hand).

It is helped that we are coming to summer though so meeting and socialising outdoors is a lot easier ... but yeah if therewas to be a 4th wave in october with severe lockdown restrictions I am not sure people would have much appetite at all
 
Pronewbie said:
I'd like to know what the UK's (and West's) appetite for another lockdown is, assuming the B1617.2 variant brings up your case numbers close to recent highs as it is more transmissible especially amongst children and can apparently incubate for longer without being picked up.

Here in Singapore, we are going through our first lockdown in 10 months despite a 40% vaccination rate.
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40% vaccination rate isn’t enough to open up society fully with variants of any kind spreading in the community. Wasn’t Singapore fully open (indoor dining etc) up until this lockdown?

What’s happening in Singapore and Taiwan is interesting. Having almost eradicated the virus seems to have made people much less willing to get vaccinated, which makes you much more vulnerable to these new variants (the UK one is the big problem in Taiwan, I think?)
 
Pogue Mahone said:
40% vaccination rate isn’t enough to open up society fully with variants of any kind spreading in the community. Wasn’t Singapore fully open (indoor dining etc) up until this lockdown?

What’s happening in Singapore and Taiwan is interesting. Having almost eradicated the virus seems to have made people much less willing to get vaccinated, which makes you much more vulnerable to these new variants (the UK one is the big problem in Taiwan, I think?)
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Yes the Kent variant is the dominant one in Taiwan.

As for the reluctance of getting vaccinated, while that was the case in Taiwan, in Singapore it was more a mix of the older populace's initial hesitation and us having insufficient vaccines.
 
Tibs said:
Re June 21st, I feel that Boris should just come out and say it's going to be delayed by at least 1 month so we have more solid data re Indian variance/spread/and vaccine efficacy against it
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I think there's enough data coming through for them to make a call by then. Rumour has it they're confident that the vaccines are having some impact against this variant.
 
Tibs said:
Hancock doing a press conference at 5

Guessing its another call for everyone to get the vaccine if it is available to them.

Re June 21st, I feel that Boris should just come out and say it's going to be delayed by at least 1 month so we have more solid data re Indian variance/spread/and vaccine efficacy against it
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And then in a month there is a new variant, and we delay again, and then another variant.
 
Pogue Mahone said:


:(

Have to say I get a bit judgey when I see anyone wearing disposable masks. No need for them. Wash and reuse everyone. Please.
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Here certain places like hospitals won't let you in unless you have a proper surgical mask or filtration masks. Reusable ones are not accepted.
 
11101 said:
Here certain places like hospitals won't let you in unless you have a proper surgical mask or filtration masks. Reusable ones are not accepted.
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I’d be ok with that (although debatable how big a benefit surgical masks vs well fitted reusable face covering). What grinds my gears is people trucking through dozens of disposable masks going in and out of shops.
 
Is anyone paying attention to the situation in Taiwan? They had been one of the best regions dealing with the pandemic until the recent outbreak, and I'm personally very worried as people have been living a normal life with little to no social distancing over the past year.
 
hmchan said:
Is anyone paying attention to the situation in Taiwan? They had been one of the best regions dealing with the pandemic until the recent outbreak, and I'm personally very worried as people have been living a normal life with little to no social distancing over the past year.
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Read something about it recently. Very little social distancing, poor vaccine uptake and Kent variant is a grim combination.

In a way this has always been a risk with zero covid strategy. Borders are inevitably porous and a population that hasn’t been used to social distancing will be vulnerable to the same sort of surges we’ve seen in worst case scenarios in countries like Italy, Belgium or the Uk.
 
One Night Only said:
And then in a month there is a new variant, and we delay again, and then another variant.
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I feel that once we get to a point that 90% of adults are vaccinated (both jabs), and any vulnerable kids, then we can proceed with caution and 'get on with it'

No harm in keeping to the current restrictions for another month or two, get to that really high national vaccination rate, and then ease the rules further.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
40% vaccination rate isn’t enough to open up society fully with variants of any kind spreading in the community. Wasn’t Singapore fully open (indoor dining etc) up until this lockdown?

What’s happening in Singapore and Taiwan is interesting. Having almost eradicated the virus seems to have made people much less willing to get vaccinated, which makes you much more vulnerable to these new variants (the UK one is the big problem in Taiwan, I think?)
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I don't think vaccine hesitancy is the reason for either Taiwan or Singapore. Singapore has vaccinated 25% of the population. The pace of the vaccination is constrained by availability of vaccines. For Taiwan, they had problems procuring vaccines.

The recent spike in cases in Singapore is most likely due to the new variant being more transmissible. The spike in community cases was preceded by increased imported cases.

For Taiwan, they had probably let their guard down. They have been living their life as per normal, and when the new variant broke through their defence, the population was caught out cold.
 
Lj82 said:
I don't think vaccine hesitancy is the reason for either Taiwan or Singapore. Singapore has vaccinated 25% of the population. The pace of the vaccination is constrained by availability of vaccines. For Taiwan, they had problems procuring vaccines.

The recent spike in cases in Singapore is most likely due to the new variant being more transmissible. The spike in community cases was preceded by increased imported cases.

For Taiwan, they had probably let their guard down. They have been living their life as per normal, and when the new variant broke through their defence, the population was caught out cold.
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Yeah, fair point. I was probably wrong to say vaccine hesitancy. Maybe a lack of vaccine urgency would be a better way to put it. At a national, rather than individual, level.

Both countries seemed to have society open at too high a level for the % of populace that’s been vaccinated. Which is why they are where they are. They’re still a long way short of the sort of surges we saw in European countries so this isn’t a disaster. More of a shot across the bows.
 
One Night Only said:
And then in a month there is a new variant, and we delay again, and then another variant.
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Would you rather an explosion of cases and deaths back in the hundreds per day?

The evidence suggests the vaccines work against this variant, it always made sense to open things up when protection is at the required level and not a moment before. June 21st was nothing but an election campaign promise.
 
Pexbo said:
Would you rather an explosion of cases and deaths back in the hundreds per day?

The evidence suggests the vaccines work against this variant, it always made sense to open things up when protection is at the required level and not a moment before. June 21st was nothing but an election campaign promise.
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Most of the vulnerable have been offered a jab or have had both now, the hospitalisation elements have consistently decreased. I don't see any reason to prolong past June 21st, given that most in society (even those at a very low risk) will have been offered the first jab.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Read something about it recently. Very little social distancing, poor vaccine uptake and Kent variant is a grim combination.

In a way this has always been a risk with zero covid strategy. Borders are inevitably porous and a population that hasn’t been used to social distancing will be vulnerable to the same sort of surges we’ve seen in worst case scenarios in countries like Italy, Belgium or the Uk.
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While the current situation in Taiwan is not ideal, I wouldn't call them having zero COVID strategy. Taiwan was one of the first regions to close their border, and a place with zero COVID strategy would not have kept the case number this low for over a year. Despite the recent outbreak, they are still one of the most successful regions in dealing with the pandemic overall. Especially when you realize Taiwan is being excluded by the WHO, and the fact that people could live a normal life in the past year cannot be gone unnoticed.

As for vaccination, I'm not sure about the details but it seems they have a problem in procuring vaccines.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...erned-china-may-have-blocked-vaccine-purchase
 
F-Red said:
Most of the vulnerable have been offered a jab or have had both now, the hospitalisation elements have consistently decreased. I don't see any reason to prolong past June 21st, given that most in society (even those at a very low risk) will have been offered the first jab.
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It’s a little hard to get your head round but the people who model these things seem convinced that there’s a % transmission increase for this new variant at which point the June 21st opening would cause such a massive outbreak that the numbers of not yet vaccinated (or vaccine refusers) plus vaccinated breakthrough illness (vaccines not 100% effective) would be enough to overwhelm hospitals even worse than the last surge.

They’ve set that cut off at 60% more transmissible than the Kent variant. Now we’re just waiting to see if we can work out what the actual % is.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
It’s a little hard to get your head round but the people who model these things seem convinced that there’s a % transmission increase for this new variant at which point the June 21st opening would cause such a massive outbreak that the numbers of not yet vaccinated (or vaccine refusers) plus vaccinated breakthrough illness (vaccines not 100% effective) would be enough to overwhelm hospitals even worse than the last surge.

They’ve set that cut off at 60% more transmissible than the Kent variant. Now we’re just waiting to see if we can work out what the actual % is.
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I can see why they're offering caution as an approach but the trend in the numbers wouldn't suggest that hospitals are going to be overwhelmed, however interesting comments from Neil Ferguson yesterday. Considering his modelling has always been on the side of pessimism.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...-quickly-feared-uk-neil-ferguson-b935965.html
 
F-Red said:
I can see why they're offering caution as an approach but the trend in the numbers wouldn't suggest that hospitals are going to be overwhelmed, however interesting comments from Neil Ferguson yesterday. Considering his modelling has always been on the side of pessimism.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...-quickly-feared-uk-neil-ferguson-b935965.html
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Interesting. The FT covid graph guy was tweeting yesterday about those curves possibly flattening too. Although it seems as though it’s far too early for anyone to have any confidence in their predictions either way.

I got sucked into another long Twitter thread where a very smart guy was presenting all available data from the two Uk sources and out of India then concluding that a 50% transmissibility increase seems likely.

Squeaky bum time for the next couple of weeks anyway!
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57186059

Covid Test and Trace System failed to prevent the Indian Covid Variant from entering the UK.
Well. What do you expect for just £38 billions of pounds, most of which was paid to those with close ties to the government.....
Surly you did not expect a system that actually works....
 


Anyone want to argue about Sweden again, for old time’s sakes? :angel:

”Many countries in Europe have been at considerably higher levels than what we are seeing now, so it's probably more about Sweden had a fairly late surge in this hopefully last third wave," state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told a press conference, lamenting that the caseload was still higher than last summer.

The Scandinavian country has never imposed the type of lockdown seen elsewhere in Europe, controversially relying on mostly non-coercive measures.

It has however gradually tightened restrictions since November, including a ban on alcohol sales after 8pm and on public gatherings of more than eight people.

Since March, cafes, bars and restaurants have also been required to shut by 8.30pm.

The 14-day notification rate for deaths however was much lower than many other countries, with 12 cases per million inhabitants. In comparison, Hungary and Croatia saw death rates of 133 and 128 per million inhabitants respectively.

The total number of deaths associated with Covid-19 since the start of pandemic reached 14,351 there today, putting Sweden in the middle of the pack in Europe, although well ahead of Nordic neighbours Finland, Norway and Denmark.

Mortality statistics also show Sweden had a lower than average excess mortality in 2020, compared to the rest of Europe.
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Massive Spanner said:
I'm confused. Doesn't that prove Sweden's approach worked well?
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Kind of. Well compared to mainland Europe. Badly compared to their neighbours. Which is a fairer comparison. Although it’s hard to quantify the improved quality of life for Swedes who’ve had schools, amateur sports, bars, restaurants etc up and running throughout the pandemic.

Anyhoo. It’s been done to death. Just saw the article and thought I’d share. Feel like I just said Candy Man five times in front of a mirror now.
 
Pexbo said:
Would you rather an explosion of cases and deaths back in the hundreds per day?

The evidence suggests the vaccines work against this variant, it always made sense to open things up when protection is at the required level and not a moment before. June 21st was nothing but an election campaign promise.
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How come it didn't really happen last summer until well into September out of interest? Pubs and retail opened up at start of July, mandatory mask wearing in public spaces and transport only became mandatory in middle of June and plenty of meet ups with BLM protests and all that around that time. And Vaccine still 6 months off being introduced.

I don't for a second think masks will just be scrapped and social distancing also axed on that day in June, I can certainly see things being delayed for a few weeks into July which by then adult population will all have been offered the vaccine.

Danger period is of course start of November again, hopefully boosters been out for a few months by time that comes around.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, fair point. I was probably wrong to say vaccine hesitancy. Maybe a lack of vaccine urgency would be a better way to put it. At a national, rather than individual, level.

Both countries seemed to have society open at too high a level for the % of populace that’s been vaccinated. Which is why they are where they are. They’re still a long way short of the sort of surges we saw in European countries so this isn’t a disaster. More of a shot across the bows.
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I think Taiwan was definitely too open. I watch Taiwanese variety shows fairly frequent and it always amazes me how little masks i see on the streets and how many large-scale events they have. Basically life was as per normal for them.

Singapore actually still has pretty strict restrictions, far stricter than many European countries. But we were a bit too eager to open up i guess. We were supposed to host both the Shangri-La Dialogue and the WEF special session, both are cancelled now.
 
hmchan said:
While the current situation in Taiwan is not ideal, I wouldn't call them having zero COVID strategy. Taiwan was one of the first regions to close their border, and a place with zero COVID strategy would not have kept the case number this low for over a year. Despite the recent outbreak, they are still one of the most successful regions in dealing with the pandemic overall. Especially when you realize Taiwan is being excluded by the WHO, and the fact that people could live a normal life in the past year cannot be gone unnoticed.

As for vaccination, I'm not sure about the details but it seems they have a problem in procuring vaccines.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...erned-china-may-have-blocked-vaccine-purchase
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Actually i think there was also some misjudgement from the Taiwanese side initially. They were banking on developing their own vaccines earlier on which did not succeed. Hence they were slow to procure vaccines. When they decided to do so, the link that you shared happened.
 
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