Where are you from?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
New Zealand
Same, booked yesterday, in and done within an hour this morning. Fairly long lines but managed very efficiently.
That’s good to hear. Mine is at 1.30 this afternoon.
Yeah, I think it’s the fact that the vaccine isn’t effective against it and (possibly) that it’s more deadly.
I do kinda worry that the mutations will become more and more resistant and more and more deadly as time goes on, meaning that this is the beginning of the end for the human race.
They will tweak the vaccines; which will mean more will die but they’ll get there. In the meantime maybe think about cutting travel to hotspots
Hmmm I thought I read a report that said that 2 previously fully vaccinated had caught the India virus. Prepared to be wrong, in fact I’d welcome it!
More people need to read articles like these. We still haven’t close to peaked globally.
Please tell me IHME are bs merchants .. this cant be right..
It's possible given that the testing capacity will be significantly inadequate. I'm not sure how their model works - one approach is to look at excess deaths, and then backsolve the number of cases based on 'expected' mortality rates. The key problem with this approach is the 'expected' mortality rate is likely to increase as medical capacity reduces. Overall though, it's safe to assume the cases reported are materially below the actual cases during a wave.
We're at a test positivity rate of nearly 20% and vaccine coverage is really low. Therefore I don't think those numbers are really outlandish.
Here in India there's additionally an extreme stigma to test positive. Vast majority of the infected people are not being tested. People are even actively avoiding even visiting a doctor with mild/moderate symptoms for fear of being asked to test.
Oh and the government is actively fudging numbers (both test results and deaths)
There's queues of ambulances with bodies waiting for their turn at crematoriums and graveyards in multiple cities. Seen a report where they have freshly walled up a crematorium to hide the stacks of bodies awaiting cremation.
Jesus. Stay safe lads
The people of India are suffering like hell with this new variant. Our Government are making people returning to the UK if they hold a UK or Irish(!) passport to pay to quarantined in an Hotel from Friday. First off, why from Friday what not from last Monday? Second, what if people cannot afford it, will they be refused entrance? It is a disaster waiting to happe. Third wave guaranteed for mid-May early June with no vaccine protection for the mutation.
With the massive amount of infections, I think we'll soon have multiple new variants. Already reading about a triple mutated Indian variant.
How many confirmed variants are there now?
The original Chinese virus, the South African variant, Brazilian variant, UK variant and now an Indian variant?
Is this mutating more quickly than other viruses?
The original Chinese virus, the South African variant, Brazilian variant, UK variant and now an Indian variant?
Is this mutating more quickly than other viruses?
The variants are obviously a concern, but compared to some viruses like influenza it is actually mutating relatively slowly. We will obviously have to keep up with them by adjusting the vaccines over the years as it keeps on evolving though.
My understanding is that the three common strains at the moment (UK, SA and Brazil) have some major mutations in common which could suggest there is an evolutionary path which is being followed.
Im pretty sure there is literally tens of thousands of mutations identified. It’s the variations which have the ability to become the dominant strain that are the issue.
Where have you seen there is no vaccine protection for the mutation? I'm not sure anyone knows whether there is or there is not, yet.
Heartbreaking what's happening in India, this is exactly what happens when health systems are overwhelmed
Does anyone who lives in India (or who is closely following what’s happening there) know if reinfections are a big part of this second wave?
Only a couple of months ago I was reading theories that cases had died right down because so many people had been infected already and the hospitals never got overwhelmed because the population was so young.
If all of the above is true then previous infection isn’t giving any protection from the Indian variant and it’s making young people much sicker than original covid. Which is an absolutely shite scenario.
I’m hoping that, in reality, the first wave didn’t infect nearly as many people as we thought. Anyone know if this is a realistic possibility?
Only a couple of months ago I was reading theories that cases had died right down because so many people had been infected already and the hospitals never got overwhelmed because the population was so young.
If all of the above is true then previous infection isn’t giving any protection from the Indian variant and it’s making young people much sicker than original covid. Which is an absolutely shite scenario.
I’m hoping that, in reality, the first wave didn’t infect nearly as many people as we thought. Anyone know if this is a realistic possibility?
There's some recent longitudinal studies there I believe ongoing
https://theprint.in/health/this-csi...ia-is-in-the-grip-of-covid-wave-again/639472/
Huge regional variation of course but could be a combination of lower prevalence in previous waves, declining immunity and susceptibility to a possibly more lethal, infective variant along with reduced distancing due to festivals, political rallies, complacency etc
Im reading that there was still religious festivals, weddings, cricket etc, why??
No and other viruses mutate far faster e.g. flu
The issue is that there are so many millions of infections that even with a very low probability of a more infectious variant evolving new variants will occur.
A miniscule sample size and purely anecdotal but I have work contact with Malaysia and India. Lots have had covid but no reinfections so far. Our Indian call center is getting slammed far harder than before but no reports of reinfections so far (of course there might be as I don't interact with everyone there).
This is a good article about it, it appears that people thought it was on the wane and the government did nothing to disabuse them - just the opposite, unfortunately.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/21/system-has-collapsed-india-descent-into-covid-hell
That article is horrific. No wonder Boris cancelled.
Systemic failure from the politicians.
also doesn’t anyone watch world News? They had 1 wave. Didn’t they think there would be more?
India has like 1.3 billion people. Thats a mind boggle of a figure of people. I am surprised that they have managed to avoid such a scenario up to now.
Did they even have a functioning health system before the pandemic?
It dreadful
Know about the variant but instead of UK banning India travel instantly, they kept it going
Sorry if this has been posted, haven’t been in here in a while.
Why this?
Why this?
Mindboggling, isn't it? But then again, this pandemic has shown time and again how it lay relatively stable and then the numbers explode in a matter of a few weeks.
It makes you think what would have happened if Boris has went with his original plan, to let it rip through society to try and get herd immunity
Last week, 650 000 people gathered in a Hindu festival. And that while already the virus was moving fast :
https://www.reuters.com/world/india...out-hindus-throng-indian-festival-2021-04-14/
Crazy super spreader event. Thinking about how it went down in Italy after that Atalanta match with what, 40k.
He kinda did.
Exponential growth is a hard thing to get your head around. It means when things go wrong they go wrong fast. That’s why the exit from lockdown needs to be slow and careful. Only takes a few superspreader events to put the whole country deeply in the shit.