SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

finneh said:
Very interesting to see the difference is mask usage in the UK and Oregon. I'm in Portland at the moment and mask usage here is flawless.

I haven't seen a single person wear one incorrectly or not at all inside or even queuing outside, having been in the city for 3 days in shops, restaurants, bars etc.

Not only that but a large % of people put their masks on when outside if someone is 10 metres away and walking towards them; lowering them when 10 metres past.
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Does that include the mean streets of West Linn?
 
Italy seems to be heading towards re-opening things from May - the latest emergency measures expire on 30th April. All regions will possibly return to "yellow" status, which means we can move around far more freely.

Outdoor dining is of course reasonably easy to do here in May, as it's generally getting quite warm by then.

I know we have to get back to normal for the sake of the economy and people's livelihoods, but with the vaccination rate crawling along so slowly I do wonder what the result of it all will be. Still, we can't have a whole country confined to their towns and villages for ever.
 
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sullydnl said:
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It's an interesting topic. Suicides are most likely to happen in the Summer months from what I remember, which makes me think that a collective feeling of being battered by this thing might have taken some weight off people - the feeling we're all in it together, etc.

Admittedly it's a total assume on my part of course but I know from work that the line coming from psychologists has been more concerned with general mental health/wellbeing of people, especially those in the frontline, as well as development of children.
 
Penna said:
I know we have to get back to normal for the sake of the economy and people's livelihoods, but with the vaccination rate crawling along so slowly I do wonder what the result of it all will be. Still, we can't have a whole country confined to their towns and villages for ever.
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Oh, I don't know about that, the Irish government are doing a decent job of it so far!

We still haven't gotten any dates for when things will open.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Eh? Restrictions were loosened literally 48 hours ago. And we have dates for future changes too. Outdoor sports starting up again on April 26th (big one for me)
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That's feck all though isn't it? What about retail? Hospitality? Weddings? Even outdoor dining? Inter-county travel? Anything there? Every other country in Europe has given dates for them, why can't we?

I know your response will be "we need to wait and see what happens" but I don't buy it. Hospitalisations and ICU numbers are at their lowest since October, and vaccinating the vulnerable has clearly worked well. So why can't we be given the same sort of rollout plan every other country has been given?

But no, instead we'll be drip fed leaks to the media to test the waters rather than getting any semblance of a plan, as usual.
 
Massive Spanner said:
That's feck all though isn't it? What about retail? Hospitality? Weddings? Even outdoor dining? Inter-county travel? Anything there? Every other country in Europe has given dates for them, why can't we?

I know your response will be "we need to wait and see what happens" but I don't buy it. Hospitalisations and ICU numbers are at their lowest since October, and vaccinating the vulnerable has clearly worked well. So why can't we be given the same sort of rollout plan every other country has been given?

But no, instead we'll be drip fed leaks to the media to test the waters rather than getting any semblance of a plan, as usual.
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Vaccinating part of the vulnerable has happened but not all. My group was next but given what’s happened with AZ I imagine that will set us back a bit. There are thousands of people like me who have had to stay in their own home for a year. I guess that’s what they want to change
 
Massive Spanner said:
That's feck all though isn't it? What about retail? Hospitality? Weddings? Even outdoor dining? Inter-county travel? Anything there? Every other country in Europe has given dates for them, why can't we?

I know your response will be "we need to wait and see what happens" but I don't buy it. Hospitalisations and ICU numbers are at their lowest since October, and vaccinating the vulnerable has clearly worked well. So why can't we be given the same sort of rollout plan every other country has been given?

But no, instead we'll be drip fed leaks to the media to test the waters rather than getting any semblance of a plan, as usual.
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The leaks are a pain in the hole but I don’t know what you mean about not getting “any semblance of a plan, as usual”. We’ve already had one very detailed road-map for a return to normality. The fact it ended up being torn up almost immediately explains the reluctance to go down the same path again.

The current idea seems to be complete a stage of reopening (this first stage primarily around reopening schools, so understand why you didn’t seem to notice it :smirk:) then assess where we are and plot out the next big set of changes. We definitely need an update to the current plan within the next couple of weeks, giving more detail about May/June. I’m sure we’ll get one.

At the end of the day, our cautious approach has got our cases down to some of the lowest in Europe. In theory this should make the “vaccine effect” much more impactful than it would if community transmission was very high and make the final stages of reopening both easier and quicker. Another backward step would be catastrophic for the morale of the country. We really need this reopening to go smoothly. If that means keeping ambitious plans under wraps for now then so be it.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
The leaks are a pain in the hole but I don’t know what you mean about not getting “any semblance of a plan, as usual”. We’ve already had one very detailed road-map for a return to normality. The fact it ended up being torn up almost immediately explains the reluctance to go down the same path again.

The current idea seems to be complete a stage of reopening (this first stage primarily around reopening schools, so understand why you didn’t seem to notice it :smirk:) then assess where we are and plot out the next big set of changes. We definitely need an update to the current plan within the next couple of weeks, giving more detail about May/June. I’m sure we’ll get one.
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In fairness the reopening of schools has gone well, though a lot of that is due to vaccinating the most vulnerable in tandem right? I still think click and collect should be open by now, too, though. I also think we're not being remotely ambitious enough with low spreaders like outdoor dining.

We got a plan last summer that largely went well until September, no? Also this year would surely be different given the vaccine ramp up? I don't see why we couldn't get a similar plan to be honest. I think if people were given a June date for a drop to level 3, July for level 2 etc. there would be far less angst over all of this.

I think overall where we differ is that you think a full on, six month lockdown is perfectly fine as long as it leads to an eventual reopening society at some point. I don't, I think it's mental seeing as even then it doesn't guarantee shit not hitting the fan once we get closer to Christmas again! I think we should be taking the same approach as other European countries, which is to open up and close up depending on cases going up/down. This lockdown is just stagnating at this point really, people have stopped caring, nobody is adhering to restrictions anymore.
 
golden_blunder said:
Vaccinating part of the vulnerable has happened but not all. My group was next but given what’s happened with AZ I imagine that will set us back a bit. There are thousands of people like me who have had to stay in their own home for a year. I guess that’s what they want to change
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Well obviously not all have been but a good proportion have been, and it's had a noticeable impact. We've gone from completely stagnating numbers to a massive drop in hospitalisations and ICU's, even with schools and some construction opening, so it's fair to say, it's working.

It's still shit, mind, the numbers are a load of shite. My 73 year old father can't even get a date for his first dose from his GP yet. End of April my hole.
 
Massive Spanner said:
In fairness the reopening of schools has gone well, though a lot of that is due to vaccinating the most vulnerable in tandem right? I still think click and collect should be open by now, too, though. I also think we're not being remotely ambitious enough with low spreaders like outdoor dining.

We got a plan last summer that largely went well until September, no? Also this year would surely be different given the vaccine ramp up? I don't see why we couldn't get a similar plan to be honest. I think if people were given a June date for a drop to level 3, July for level 2 etc. there would be far less angst over all of this.

I think overall where we differ is that you think a full on, six month lockdown is perfectly fine as long as it leads to an eventual reopening society at some point. I don't, I think it's mental seeing as even then it doesn't guarantee shit not hitting the fan once we get closer to Christmas again! I think we should be taking the same approach as other European countries, which is to open up and close up depending on cases going up/down. This lockdown is just stagnating at this point really, people have stopped caring, nobody is adhering to restrictions anymore.
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That’s definitely where we disagree alright. I think closing down again from here would be an absolute disaster. Woeful mismanagement of the situation. I’ve friends in the hospitality industry. They can handle delaying their opening for another month or two providing that’s the end of it. Going through all the effort of getting open again, only to have the rug pulled out from under them, would break them completely. We’re so close to the end of this nightmare. From now on the only changes we make should be for the better. IMHO.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That’s definitely where we disagree alright. I think closing down again from here would be an absolute disaster. Woeful mismanagement of the situation. I’ve friends in the hospitality industry. They can handle delaying their opening for another month or two providing that’s the end of it. Going through all the effort of getting open again, only to have the rug pulled out from under them, would break them completely. We’re so close to the end of this nightmare. From now on the only changes we make should be for the better. IMHO.
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I don't get why you think that though. Every European country has been doing it? Opening hospitality followed by a brief, sharp, strict lockdown when it looks like things could go wrong. I also don't see how it makes any sense by your logic that someone working in a pub would prefer to be out of work longer than in work as long as it wasn't just for a few weeks at a time.

But uh.. yeah.. maybe NPHET are seeing something that no other country is, right?

Also how do you know we're close? That's not a trick question. I just don't know how anyone can be so certain. The vaccines haven't been working well in Chile, the Brazilian variant looks like an absolute nightmare that will likely get here eventually, and cases will obviously go back up again as it gets colder. How can you say for certain we are near the end of this nightmare? How do we know that Christmas won't be a total shitshow again and this brutally long lockdown will have been completely pointless?

I really hope the vaccines are as great as you and NPHET and our government are so certain they will be!
 
Massive Spanner said:
I don't get why you think that though. Every European country has been doing it? Opening hospitality followed by a brief, sharp, strict lockdown when it looks like things could go wrong. I don't see how it makes any sense by your logic that someone working in a pub would prefer to be out of work longer than in work as long as it wasn't just for a few weeks at a time.

But uh.. yeah.. maybe NPHET are seeing something that no other country is, right?
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I’m talking about people who own/run pubs/restaurants and I can assure that what you describe is their worst nightmare. I also don’t think that what you describe is a) as common as you think in the rest of Europe and b) the preferred approach for the people that live/work there
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I’m talking about people who own/run pubs/restaurants and I can assure that what you describe is their worst nightmare. I also don’t think that what you describe is a) as common as you think in the rest of Europe and b) the preferred approach for the people that live/work there
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it's all just our opinions and thoughts on what people are thinking really. Let's be honest, Covid hasn't really been that bad for either of us in contrast to all the people who lost their jobs, loved ones, and have been stuck on PUP. If anything lockdown has been fine for me. I love WFH, we've saved a fortune and it's been a godsend with our puppy. I even got a new, better job with a bigger wage. I miss travel and seeing the family but that's about it. I'm weirdly dreading society opening up fully to a point, it's going to be a huge shock to the system for me (and many others like me). Believe me when I say that coming out of lockdown isn't a big priority for me (though I would love a pint of Guinness!).

I'm so far detached from the people who are really suffering from this that it's almost unfair. Some of the stories I've seen and read from them are horrendous, which is why, for their sakes, I want some shit to be open, and I want a plan for them, so they at least know when it's going to end. I don't see what's so radical about that.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Well obviously not all have been but a good proportion have been, and it's had a noticeable impact. We've gone from completely stagnating numbers to a massive drop in hospitalisations and ICU's, even with schools and some construction opening, so it's fair to say, it's working.

It's still shit, mind, the numbers are a load of shite. My 73 year old father can't even get a date for his first dose from his GP yet. End of April my hole.
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Should come quicker now with AZ restricted to over 60s surely?
How come he hasn’t been done already? I thought the 70s were done
 
Massive Spanner said:
I don't get why you think that though. Every European country has been doing it? Opening hospitality followed by a brief, sharp, strict lockdown when it looks like things could go wrong. I also don't see how it makes any sense by your logic that someone working in a pub would prefer to be out of work longer than in work as long as it wasn't just for a few weeks at a time.

But uh.. yeah.. maybe NPHET are seeing something that no other country is, right?

Also how do you know we're close? That's not a trick question. I just don't know how anyone can be so certain. The vaccines haven't been working well in Chile, the Brazilian variant looks like an absolute nightmare that will likely get here eventually, and cases will obviously go back up again as it gets colder. How can you say for certain we are near the end of this nightmare? How do we know that Christmas won't be a total shitshow again and this brutally long lockdown will have been completely pointless?

I really hope the vaccines are as great as you and NPHET and our government are so certain they will be!
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In regards to Chile didn’t they get the Chinese vaccine? If so, it’s a bit shit, barely passes the regulatory pass mark
No doubt they also have the Brazilian variant in the country
 
golden_blunder said:
Should come quicker now with AZ restricted to over 60s surely?
How come he hasn’t been done already? I thought the 70s were done
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You'd hope so.

Who knows, I wouldn't trust a word the HSE and government say about what is and isn't done. My father knows plenty of other over 70's who haven't been done yet. He was originally told mid April, then late April, now there's no definitive date, I'm guessing due to the pause on AZ this week. My co worker's 82 year old granny only got her first dose a week ago. They're talking nonsense.
 
Massive Spanner said:
You'd hope so.

Who knows, I wouldn't trust a word the HSE and government say about what is and isn't done. My father knows plenty of other over 70's who haven't been done yet. He was originally told mid April, then late April, now there's no definitive date, I'm guessing due to the pause on AZ this week. My co worker's 82 year old granny only got her first dose a week ago. They're talking nonsense.
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That’s shit news about your dad. Crazy he hasn’t been done yet. Apparently they’re opening the online portal for <70s tomorrow. 69 year olds can register on day one, 68 on day two, and so on.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That’s shit news about your dad. Crazy he hasn’t been done yet. Apparently they’re opening the online portal for <70s tomorrow. 69 year olds can register on day one, 68 on day two, and so on.
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I can only assume that it's intentionally slower in Sligo where cases are lower than in big hotspots like Dublin and the border counties, maybe? My partner's 71 year old dad is in North Dublin and he had it last week. It's a shame they haven't been transparent about all of it though. Anyone I say it to is shocked cause they've just assumed over 70's are done.
 
Massive Spanner said:
I can only assume that it's intentionally slower in Sligo where cases are lower than in big hotspots like Dublin and the border counties, maybe? My partner's 71 year old dad is in North Dublin and he had it last week. It's a shame they haven't been transparent about all of it though. Anyone I say it to is shocked cause they've just assumed over 70's are done.
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Don’t think so. My folks got done last week in Skibereen. Where there’s been zero cases for about a month now. And they were done later than all their friends. It seems incredibly unfair to me that there are any 70+ year olds still waiting when they’re about to start allowing people in their 60s register online.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Don’t think so. My folks got done last week in Skibereen. Where there’s been zero cases for about a month now. And they were done later than all their friends. It seems incredibly unfair to me that there are any 70+ year olds still waiting when they’re about to start allowing people in their 60s register online.
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Yeah I don’t think it’s right
 
Isn't almost everyone in the high risk category vaccinated in the UK ?

Worst its ever been here in India and people still arent wearing masks.. and millions are travelling from all over the country for the Kumbh.
 
King Eric 7 said:
I find it hard to believe that mask wearing on the tube would be non-existent. Surely it's pre Covid footage?
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I don't think the one linked is quite as live as being suggested so that might true. I saw it cut at one point to a different street.
 
In case it has not been posted in this thread yet: The Lancet Psychiatry has published what may be the first large study on suicide trends during the pandemic. Surprisingly, numbers are not up anywhere they checked for the period up July 31, 2020. Here are their methods and interpretation of their findings in their own words:
Methods: We sourced real-time suicide data from countries or areas within countries through a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. Between Sept 1 and Nov 1, 2020, we searched the official websites of these countries’ ministries of health, police agencies, and government-run statistics agencies or equivalents, using the translated search terms “suicide” and “cause of death”, before broadening the search in an attempt to identify data through other public sources. Data were included from a given country or area if they came from an official government source and were available at a monthly level from at least Jan 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020. Our internet searches were restricted to countries with more than 3 million residents for pragmatic reasons, but we relaxed this rule for countries identified through the literature and our networks. Areas within countries could also be included with populations of less than 3 million. We used an interrupted time-series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides before COVID-19 (from at least Jan 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020) in each country or area within a country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic (from April 1 to July 31, 2020, in the primary analysis).

Interpretation: This is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. In high-income and upper-middle-income countries, suicide numbers have remained largely unchanged or declined in the early months of the pandemic compared with the expected levels based on the pre-pandemic period. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic effects of the pandemic unfold.
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Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00091-2/fulltext

Suicide rates are not a full indicator of mental health, of course, and July 31 is by now a fairly early cut-off date. But this is encouraging news.
 
prateik said:
Isn't almost everyone in the high risk category vaccinated in the UK ?

Worst its ever been here in India and people still arent wearing masks.. and millions are travelling from all over the country for the Kumbh.
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Our bangalore office has had to shut, thanks to idiotic management allowing people to come to work infected.
 
Dancfc said:
If you deny people the chance to excercise and get some natural light than we will go straight from a coronovirus pandemic to a mental breakdown pandemic and lose a significantly amount more people to suicide than even the worst case scenario of the virus, not to mention the health problems lack of natural light/abscene from the sun will cause.
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So, about that...

Cheimoon said:
In case it has not been posted in this thread yet: The Lancet Psychiatry has published what may be the first large study on suicide trends during the pandemic. Surprisingly, numbers are not up anywhere they checked for the period up July 31, 2020. Here are their methods and interpretation of their findings in their own words:


Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00091-2/fulltext

Suicide rates are not a full indicator of mental health, of course, and July 31 is by now a fairly early cut-off date. But this is encouraging news.
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