Whats this about Boris saying expect a 3rd wave because of it slipping through the border from the EU? Close the feckin borders completely then you twat. We are nearly there in the UK. Keep the UK on track atleast. Pointless bungling it now just to put us on level shitness of the rest of Europe. Atleast we could be back to normality soon, couldn't give a shit about abroad holidays. I'd settle for domestic holidays and having the luxuries such as pubs and shops open.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
This is what I don’t understand. I’ve heard from people in Australia, who have done just that, who say that you’d never know that COVID was a thing anymore over there
It’s complete nonsense and shutting the borders isn’t necessary. The current mainland European wave is because of the Uk variant spreading across the continent. The wave he’s talking about started in the UK and is rolling away, not towards you. Classic BoJo bullshitting though. Has to find a way to blame the EU for everything.
I did think it was a bit of fear mongering so he can give some of our vaccines to EU to help them out while saying it's in our best interests, softens the blow to the UK public and not lose face over more vaccine deliveries going to EU, while UK vaccines slow down.
Or he's just a cock womble who hasn't got a clue.
It isn't quite that good here as covid slipping out of quarantine hotels makes it permanent nervous time, because when it does it results in a swift and usually sever lockdown, at least locally.
We do though have a far more normal life. We only have to wear masks on public transport although many still do in places like supermarkets, where distancing isn't easy. Everything is open but there are restrictions with compulsory electronic registration every time you go into a pup, cafe or restaurant and limits on group sizes at things like weddings, funerals and sporting events. Some sectors have still been decimated, especially hospitality during lock down periods and of course anything tourism related as until recently state borders have often been closed so even domestic travel has been limited. Unemployment is back down to only slighlty more than a year ago but it will go up again when the government support reduces soon. GDP is only down 3%ish. Health services are operating more or less as normal although there has been some disruption during lockdowns.
The big difference is that we have used all the usual measures e.g. masks, distancing, closing hospitality and other venues etc with state and international border closures and police guarded quarantine to great effect. Early on we made the choice to shut state borders to avoid each cross infecting the others once community transmission is eradicated and of course imposed an international travel ban for non-Aussies and very big restrictions on Aussies - limited flights and spaces in quarantine combines with the cost of quarantine has limited inflows and most of us are banned from leaving unless you are leaving long term for work or Uni etc.
If you are going to ban overseas travel you need to do it properly and unless your goal is eliminating community transmission, with all the hardship that months of stage 5 lockdown brings it isn't going ton solve the issues on its own. The time to do with was March last year, if you were going to do it. As a short term measure when combined with other measures it might be worth it while you rapidly vaccinate but the government have knee-jerked with incomplete measures so often that I doubt the public would get behind such sever restrictions.
I wish I knew the definitive answer to that, GB. I don't want to speculate, but the hypocrisy of government officials (preaching to practice social distancing, staying in lockdown and then breaking all the rules that they had set out) is not a good look and makes me think that there is something truly deeper in what's going on right now.
My position is this, when we first heard about covid, I was all for lockdowns. I wanted us to go in the most strictest lockdown possible so that we could get over this as soon as possible - kind of like China did.. and the reality is that most governments could do that if they really wanted to - even the craziest "conspiracy theorists" would agree to going on a strict no move lockdown for 3 or 4 weeks so we can get out of this misery.
The reality now is that this has been dragging on and in my opinion - it doesn't warrant the type of reaction (based on the data and science) that we first had provided it. Governments around the world who are keeping people under lockdown seem like they're abusing their power. Constantly moving goal posts, contradicting themselves - do this, then next week that particular thing was not right, do this, etc. It just screams like their trying to get more control, take away your rights and freedoms and once they have it it'll be a lot harder to get back.
I can't speak for every government but I know in Canada, we have a socialist leader who's actions during covid are making our country more and more into a socialist country. He's using covid as an excuse to push out his socialist ideals and that's the part that bothers me... the fact that covid is now becoming politicized.
Just look on this board or anywhere rather, you cannot even have a discussion about it. The moment you bring up alternative views, question it (with science driven data and numbers) you are a conspiracy theorist. I tell a mod on here that the vaccine has not undergone the same type of review as an FDA cleared vaccine has and apparently I'm lying and don't know what i'm talking about even though that is clearly not up for debate.
I provided you facts. The 0.05% mortality rate and co-mobordity average isn't me speaking out my ass it's straight from the CDC (everybody's favourite). Not everyone that doesn't want to live their life in fear is a conspiracy theorist you know?
The problem is we can't even ask any questions and if we do we're deniers. There are some folks here who are not open to any type of discussion about it. Covid is a religion to them and if you don't fear for your life and hide 24/7 you don't trust science.
Here's a better video if you don't like that one.
Important bit about PCR testing:
I was trying to indulge, and survived through the first minute of "died with Covid or from Covid" old bullshit. But then he starts talking about PCR, and anyone who knows a bit about this clearly understand he knows feck all of what he's talking about. Then I question, why, a year later, are you still listening to people like this? What are his credentials? He's picking up numbers from PCR (which might be generally true) to make inane points. When he gets to the phase of correlating PCR cycles with how sick you are (immediately before the 03:00 minute mark, which was when I couldn't watch any longer) he just shows he's a massive ignorant on the subject. I've been studying basic medical sciences for 20 years of my life (out of pure joy, at the expense of being, in relative terms, quite ignorant at clinical sciences). If you want proof that I'm not a recent enthusiast, you can wonder why I, as a doctor, was writing posts like this in a football forum 8 years ago. I love and care for this stuff. https://www.redcafe.net/threads/the-random-chat-thread.363091/page-140#post-12880926 The guy you're listening to knows nothing about biology other than what he learned in the last year because it became a popular theme. People like me can tell in an instant who knows their game in these themes or who doesn't. It's plain plain obvious.
Imagine you sitting down with someone like my girlfriend, who hates football, probably never watched a full game, but knows basic math. And she starts arguing with you that a given random player must have played better than the one who was almost unanimously considered MOTM by fans by throwing at you random numbers like he touched the ball x times or was only fouled y times... Imagine how wasteful discussing that would look to you, and how you would dismiss her arguments as soon as you, as a football fan, realized that she had no basic understanding of the game... It may seem a trivial example, but the point I'm making is rather simple, you only need abstraction capacity to understand it.
That's kind of how I feel when I listen to a guy like that. Now of course, if after one year of this crap you're still trying to learn about Covid by listening to Joe Rogan show, people will call out your ignorance.
There certainly are not important bits about PCR testing in there. It's an ignorant spewing numbers that seem to make sense to an ignorant audience. Why you would chose an Economic analyst (and a politically biased one) to teach you about Covid is the part that makes you seem like a lost case. You are looking for people to validate your formed conclusions, not really trying to learn or "ask questions" about the subject.
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The Liberal Party in Canada is about as central as you can get. Most mildly social democratic parties around the world that are center/left are still more left wing that the Canadian Liberal Party.
Why would you listen to nonsense from this right wing covid denier (or to be very generous "downplayer")? Epidemiologists and scientists in appropriate areas think he is full of shit but you don't seem to want to listen to them. Listening to nutters on You Tube isn't research.
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Most countries with half decent reporting are running at between about 2 and 4% mortality rate - not half of one percent. You are using the covid deniers favorite trick of ignoring old people and anyone with any health condition and saying "only 0.05% of the population who I care about will die".
Discarding those millions of people who you don't consider important enough to live just makes you a bad human being IMO.
Forget left wing/right wing.. remove all potential bias.. why would anyone listen to a person with no qualifications over experts in the field?
A part of it has to be people feeling like experts in a field after reading wikipedia and spending 10 mins on the internet..
Its also a lot of confirmation bias.. its listening to what you want to believe and taking it to be true.. every other opinion is wrong.. the one person who says what you like is true.
The UK has lost nearly 0.2% of its entire population due to covid.. and nowhere near 100% have been infected yet..
The US has lost ~0.17% of its entire population.. their best estimate is around 30-35% have been infected so far.
I have no idea where you are getting the 0.05% from
A part of it has to be people feeling like experts in a field after reading wikipedia and spending 10 mins on the internet..
Its also a lot of confirmation bias.. its listening to what you want to believe and taking it to be true.. every other opinion is wrong.. the one person who says what you like is true.
The UK has lost nearly 0.2% of its entire population due to covid.. and nowhere near 100% have been infected yet..
The US has lost ~0.17% of its entire population.. their best estimate is around 30-35% have been infected so far.
I have no idea where you are getting the 0.05% from
An update from India here - our gross negligence and stupidity has caused an alarming upswing in cases over the past ten days or so. We're in the so called 'second wave', reporting 40K+ cases everyday now. The worst part is, none of this has been caused due to more infectious mutated strains from (UK, Brazilian etc.) but it's just a result of non compliance if I can say that.
No one still wears masks, get that. Fuel Stations, supermarkets, general stores...you name it. Bars and pubs don't give a damn either. They're overcrowded, no distance being maintained whatsoever, stay open until 1 AM, 3 AM and what not. We can't afford another complete lockdown so it's either going be night curfew/ weekend lockdown or both. Looks like 2021 here, like many other countries is going to be a repeat of last year.
No one still wears masks, get that. Fuel Stations, supermarkets, general stores...you name it. Bars and pubs don't give a damn either. They're overcrowded, no distance being maintained whatsoever, stay open until 1 AM, 3 AM and what not. We can't afford another complete lockdown so it's either going be night curfew/ weekend lockdown or both. Looks like 2021 here, like many other countries is going to be a repeat of last year.
Remove old people and anyone with any other health issue from the stats and only 0.05% of the rest will die of covid.
Interesting fact is that young health people without cancer die less often than people with stage 3 or 4 cancers or those over 70. But we don't need to worry about looking after them thankfully. The are as good as dead already so sod them
my parents have been complaining that mask use was drastically down by sept/october last year, and there's been no rise in cases from then till recently. the only new thing seems to be the new variants.
has something else changed too?
The 0.05% figure started as viral misinformation on social media (mainly facebook) - big part is nobody really knows if its referring to infection fatality rate or case fatality rate
Has been fact checked several times though
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...stimates-covid-19-death-rate-0-26/5269331002/
https://www.capradio.org/articles/2...ook-posts-mislead-on-covid-19-mortality-rate/
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-9243914747
This has been pointed out many times to those bringing the 0.05% figure up to prove where they got it from, any CDC link or graph or data that backs it up. And we got nothing.
He's laying the groundwork for two things; forcing people to spend their money on UK holidays instead of going abroad, and closing the borders if the SA variant/other new variant becomes prevalent and the AZ vaccine most people have had stops working.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56483445
Really interesting article, suggesting that the Rhinovirus (common cold) ejects coronavirus from cells stopping it from infecting. So catching a cold could be a good way of fighting of the coronavirus! But incidents of inluenza nd colds are way down because of social distancing, masks, hygeine etc.
Also suggests that because of the fall in cold and flu cases, our immunity to those could be decreasing too, maybe leading a nasty surge next autumn and winter.
It's fascinating how it is all so interconnected and obvious once it's been pointed out!
Really interesting article, suggesting that the Rhinovirus (common cold) ejects coronavirus from cells stopping it from infecting. So catching a cold could be a good way of fighting of the coronavirus! But incidents of inluenza nd colds are way down because of social distancing, masks, hygeine etc.
Also suggests that because of the fall in cold and flu cases, our immunity to those could be decreasing too, maybe leading a nasty surge next autumn and winter.
It's fascinating how it is all so interconnected and obvious once it's been pointed out!
Thanks for the context
I think the lockdown effects has got to you. What you’re choosing to believe in and find examples of on then internet has already been debunked.
0.05% for example. Look at the posts from @Wolverine and @Arruda on it. These guys are real doctors.
covid has been politically used for sure. You only have to look at US. Before and after the change of president and the amount of vaccines for example. The way some of the states are ordering people to fully open up before they have their vaccine. Those people are friends of trump. So yeah it has been politicised.
your answer to my question; I can’t get a straight answer on it from anyone that asks others to think like you are currently.
have you ever thought that what you’re choosing to believe is wrong?
Well said sir
More gimmicks from the gimmicks in chief.
Country to hold minute's silence to mark one year since lockdown
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...o-mark-anniversary-of-first-lockdown-12254032
Country to hold minute's silence to mark one year since lockdown
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...o-mark-anniversary-of-first-lockdown-12254032
What’s the point in a minutes silence for this? It’s not someone to remember happily or be something to remind people off?
edit: unless of course you want to remember the PM for 150,000 deaths.
Well this fecking sucks. I cannot stress enough what an unbearable fecking pain in the hoop the cocking UK variant has been in this pandemic. Makes the previous version seem positively benign.
I'd be wary until its been reviewed - her posting record is pretty 1-dimensional. I'm not sure why a complex model that matches the Imperial data is very useful, considering the people who wrote the Imperial paper acknowledged that their data was very much affected by the lockdown at the time.
The source of the initial headline tweetables all seem to head back to this paper which is linked to on the WHO site:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v3.full.pdf
Which was an early study based on a limited set of antibody estimated infection rates and recorded deaths. It's got big error bars on the data, and some pretty wide estimated ranges between countries/datasets.
The current CDC planning estimate is 0.05% in the 18-49 age group, 0.6% in the 50-64's and 9% in the over 65s (with that 9% masking big differences between men and women and as age rises).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
In terms of actual UK data that ignores how many people have been infected but looking at the total population of the UK instead, around 0.2% of the UK population have died.
Breaking that down further:
Around 0.26% of the adult population have died, with the number of people estimated to have had covid running at below 20% that would suggest an overall adult IFR of above 1%.
It looks like it has already killed around 1% of the over 65s.
And around 15,000 x 15-64 year olds, mostly male and mostly in the 45-64 group - which means that actual deaths are running at around 0.04% in the working age population, which could turn into something far worse if more of the population did get infected.
So yeah, the 0.05 figure is basically a percentage that's been cherry picked from estimates which only relates to 18-49 year olds in a situation where they do have access to medical care (including oxygen support) and the hospital services aren't overwhelmed by dealing with the over 50s etc.
The JCVI's vaccination priority list has been more or less driven by that demographic data. What the conspiracy theorists use of the 0.05% thing is driven by - I don't know - maybe dislike/indifference towards parents, grandparents, cancer patients and people with disabilities? Maybe they just don't like the maths, and they'd rather imagine a global conspiracy to stop them going to the pub.
Aye. Fair enough.
And here’s the counter-argument.
US data but compelling all the same.
Can’t believe I’m spending all morning on Twitter after avoiding it for ages. I’m going to be in a shit mood later...
I like his "I provided you facts" then his rambling on. Reminds me of a certain Liverpool managers slippery slope.
The same demographic suffer the most economically the more covid you have and have the worst health outcomes. Special educational interventions would help address the issue rather than increasing infections to try to solve the educational issue of the restrictions.
Trudeau and the canadian government socialists! truly some north americans need to look into simple political definitions, because Trudeau is way far from a socialist spectrum
This is pure speculative/qualitative - but aren't the poorest kids also likely to be living in a household which is more likely to have poor covid outcomes?
So aren't poor people just screwed either way. Highest risk of being left behind academically, highest risk of losing a close family member. I guess it's for the govt to then decide which of those two will have the smaller impact long-term
Such as? We know they’re not engaging with online learning and sending teachers or teacher’s assistants to visit every home in the country would a) require an insane amount of personnel/resources and b) cause more infections than keeping schools open.
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Some renediation will have to wait until the kids return to school, funding schools properly might also be a start. And there is lots you can do with online learning. What we are doing isn't really online learning as it is mainly just another way of delivering notes to kids who aren't in school. True online learning is very different from what we are doing but requires educational development that has to be funded and funding of Learning Management and other associated systems and services. Another thing we haven't really done is use SME'S to deliver online across schools - this has huge potential as it avoids those situations where gaps are filled by teachers with the wrong skills. As an example in my last teaching role I never taught biology (my speciality) but did teach quite a bit of RE which was a challenge.
And targeted remedial tutoring is dooable. There is a scheme being trialled with initially great results going on at the moment in Victoria. Judging current pandemic school online learning as is is like saying you hate pizza only having tried Domino's.
All takes money of course.
And time. A lot time. While with each week these kids are kept out of school they fall further and further behind.
And that’s only considering the academic value of school which, as a teacher, you’ll know is only a small part of the value it provides. Especially for younger kids or only children. At a time when they’re not supposed to be interacting with other kids in any other context. And for the most underprivileged going to school can give them a break from dysfunctional circumstances at home.
They are happening actually but not sure what amount, I guess small. They are going to homes where the kid cannot come into school such as ones that would attend a special education class . The parents might feel it’s too risky or the child may feel anxious or worried. Staff are going out to those. I dunno how they work it though as I’m sure it’s not every school
our school is doing online learning as long as they have staff at home. They still have to work even if they can’t come into school, because they might be pregnant for example. Medical high risk were ordered back in by the dept last week
It all comes down to the parents too. I guarantee you our kids are ahead of where they’d be if they were in their usual classes. My youngest one can read a little above his age range and write a little. That only happened in lockdown.
my other kid has got better at some stuff too.
that being said it’s only because of the level we have given to them. Not all parents can do the same (sadly). I will also start a new job soon wherein I will probably not have a lot of spare time soon.
We have spent half the pandemic in Cambodia and more recently back in the UK, hands down the online learning offered by the school in Cambodia was superior t what we've experienced in the UK. Like most parents who have the time, we have spent alot of time with the children while they've been online learning and in Cambodia our children progressed, back home in the UK at best they have stagnated and at worst they have regressed.
The standard of online learning offered here (in the small sample size I have experienced in Bristol) has been shocking in comparison.
Fair play to you geebs but that’s exactly what I’m getting at.
When well educated parents have the commitment and free time to step up the kids will be ok (ideally, you’d also need their folks to be willing to break some rules to find a way to get their kids some social interactions too - especially for children without siblings near their age).
Some might even benefit from the extra one to one teaching, as yours have. My youngest has definitely made more progress in maths at home than at school. All this means, though, is that the kids whose parents don’t tick those boxes will fall further and further behind.
Its been the opposite with me, working full time from home covering three different people and trying to homeschool as a single parent has been the toughest twelve months I can recall, thankfully her school have been absolutely brilliant, they are doing after school catch up sessions for those who have struggled, and she is really throwing herself into it, so hopefully the damage can be undone
Its been the opposite with me, working full time from home covering three different people and trying to homeschool as a single parent has been the toughest twelve months I can recall, thankfully her school have been absolutely brilliant, they are doing after school catch up sessions for those who have struggled, and she is really throwing herself into it, so hopefully the damage can be undone
Sounds like you’ve reared a great kid. With that attitude she’ll go far. Unfortunately not many children will share her drive and will be seriously disadvantaged if their parents (or parent) have gone through a similar 12 months to you.