I saw a chart a couple of months ago comparing the death rates of “more contagious” (UK variant) vs “more deadly” (SA and Brazil variants) and it was pretty terrifying. The “more deadly” chart rises quicker but also plateaus quicker before a linear fall whereas the “more contagious” has a more linear rise before suddenly going parabolic.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I saw a chart a couple of months ago comparing the death rates of “more contagious” (UK variant) vs “more deadly” (SA and Brazil variants) and it was pretty terrifying. The “more deadly” chart rises quicker but also plateaus quicker before a linear fall whereas the “more contagious” has a more linear rise before suddenly going parabolic.
Ireland’s been level 5 for ages
SA basicly reached herd-immunity so I wouldn't compare that graph to other places. (I don't know if it is dominant in any other country.)
I don't see what you describe in Brazil's cases. Is it just for Manaus or some other city?
The chart wasn’t literally UK vs SA vs Brazil. It was a generic comparison plotting the death rate of two strains of the same virus if:
1. More deadly (but less contagious than 2)
2. More contagious (but less deadly than 1)
As I said, 1 has a quicker rise in deaths initially but plateaus quicker whereas 2 takes longer for deaths to rise but when they do they rise exponentially and eclipse the total number than 1 might produce.
Ok
Well that is what you would expect to happen. The second point is only true if the R is pushed under 1 (obv easier/quicker in scenario 1) and total number of cases in scenario 1 is lower than in 2, but it didn't happen in SA as they just let it rip through until "herd-immunity". (Which can be a fine tactic for a young population that has many other huge health problems in addition to covid. But that is a different conversation)Do we have estimate on the contagiousness of the SA variant?
Ok
Do we have estimate on the contagiousness of the SA variant?
Not the article I remember reading but an article on it all the same with the same message:
https://theconversation.com/coronav...rather-than-more-deadly-isnt-good-news-152863
Yeah, as a thought exercise or simulation (and in real life) that can be true. Depends on the R-values and the restrictions. Kucharski had it in his twitter in January, like the article that you linked. And it is quite intuitive (depending on variables).
Seems like I am just overly pedantic
Something to consider is the impact of man on the environment. Rough numbers here but back in the mid 50s we still had around 80% of the worlds wilderness areas still intact. Today that figure is closer to 25%. The largest chunk of that lost in the last 25 years. The problem this causes is that there are species of animals that in the past very rarely came into contact with each other, now that is happening more frequently and the chance of diseases hopping species has increased. Reducing factors impacting climate change are one thing, rewilding the planet is something equally as important.
Shit rollout in Europe full stop, we have lockdown plus curfew, id expect a fall in numbers. But I saw a couples leaving their friends house at 11 30 tonight, breaking all rules. So let's stop with rules and open up
A post isn't even a shot on goal! It is nothing!
Is the vaccine rollout in the UK having an effect on the numbers yet? I look at the worldometer graphs every day and see the cases falling and now levelling off. Does the vaccine effort here show in the numbers yet, irrespective of our partial lifting of lockdown measures.
Fishing for positivity here
Fishing for positivity here
Nearly half of the adults in this country have been vaccinated and I know there is a 3 week lag in terms of protection but surely the signs must be good? I'm trying to look for that in the data maybe it's still too soon but I don't know.
Really surprising disease, this thing. A bit more technical for people on the health field: I spent half a day around an elderly patient today whom was breathless, but was triaged to the non-Covid area because of low probability according to our local criteria. Now for breathlessness we obviously look for heart/lung conditions but her physical exam seemed fine except for the quite obvious breathing difficulty. Vitals all ok (except respiratory rate), no congestion on the lungs etc. Analytics ruled out heart attack and no inflammatory markers: only had one thing altered, which was the D-Dimers test, so we made a CT scan to rule out pulmonary embolism and the only changes in the CT were incredibly mild congestion which almost all people in her age will have. We assumed it was just a bit of heart failure, so she did diuretic for a few hours and my team leader was pressuring me to discharge her, but she was still with a lot of breathlessness so I demanded he took a look at her before letting me assume the responsibility (I'm an inexperienced contractor) of discharging an elderly patient who is not feeling well. As soon as he talked to her he agreed with me that it was better to admit her to "compensate" her heart failure so we made the Covid test which is standard for all admissions.
Now they called me to say she was positive for the UK variant (I had already seen it as I check my patients data when I get home almost every day ) and are asking me to go do the test right now. Which is incredibly silly, as if I had infected her she wouldn't test positive so soon, and if she infected me I'm not gonna test positive now, I was with her like some 8 hours ago. I just did a routine test yesterday. Typical response of panicking directors whom are scared of a Covid outbreak in the non-Covid ER and are turning to the irrational. I already expected to be tested nearly every day next week, but going to the hospital at this hour is just plain stupidity.
Although point was is I don't think I've ever seen an acutely ill patient with an infectious disease and absolutely no sign in the inflammatory markers. A few won't have leukocytosis, but nearly always a C-reactive protein etc. Her being infected (with whatever organism) simply never wandered our minds after those analytics. I expect them to change tomorrow, but nevertheless it's quite unusual for the person to become so sick without labs.
It's only the third time we caught a Covid patient in the no-Covid area, but now with this being the UK variant I expect a lot of panic in the next few days.
Now they called me to say she was positive for the UK variant (I had already seen it as I check my patients data when I get home almost every day ) and are asking me to go do the test right now. Which is incredibly silly, as if I had infected her she wouldn't test positive so soon, and if she infected me I'm not gonna test positive now, I was with her like some 8 hours ago. I just did a routine test yesterday. Typical response of panicking directors whom are scared of a Covid outbreak in the non-Covid ER and are turning to the irrational. I already expected to be tested nearly every day next week, but going to the hospital at this hour is just plain stupidity.
Although point was is I don't think I've ever seen an acutely ill patient with an infectious disease and absolutely no sign in the inflammatory markers. A few won't have leukocytosis, but nearly always a C-reactive protein etc. Her being infected (with whatever organism) simply never wandered our minds after those analytics. I expect them to change tomorrow, but nevertheless it's quite unusual for the person to become so sick without labs.
It's only the third time we caught a Covid patient in the no-Covid area, but now with this being the UK variant I expect a lot of panic in the next few days.
Very good point
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I understand she has breathing difficulty.
How will the treatment differ if she is tested positive or negative?
You are doing a great job btw
We are past the point where anything could be done. Large groups of people here don’t believe covid exists anymore, or at least they don’t think it’s a threat to anybody. I’m currently in a town 300km from Kraków on a short break and I’ve not met a single person wearing a mask for the last 4 days and even got some nasty comments about being ‘a dumb fecking sheep’ for wearing one in a shop and almost got beaten up on another occasion literally just for wearing a mask. Our government can come up with as many restrictions as they like but it’s not going to help much with how ridiculously dumb large partof our society is. It’s generally a bit better in large cities as there are more educated people so it’s not so much of an issue in Kraków or Warsaw but once you go outside it’s really ridiculous. Facebook comments section is virtually all conspiracy freaks too so it spreads very fast. Restaurants and hotels breaking restrictions and opening despite lockdown are gathering huge support which further encourages others to do the same. It’s a mess.
It’s definitely lack of education taking its toll. For years the only for of education in Poland has been to force kids into memorizing things they don’t understand. There’s basically no ability to think critically among our society and in situations like this it becomes very apparent. I mean I’ve been arguing with a guy recently that potential 3% mortality is extremely high, he still left with a view ‘as long as the other 97% get to live normal lives it doesn’t matter to him’ and that ‘3% is literally nothing’.
I have even seen people who lost their relatives to covid negate it, and trying to sue hospitals for fabricating cause of death. There was one lady close to where I live who did not allow her husband to go to hospital with breathing difficulties because they were ‘anti covid’. He died at home and now she’s suing hospital for not helping him but still adamant it wasn’t covid because ‘what doesn’t exist can’t kill you’.
We will hit 200k death toll easily and possibly even more. Unfortunately it won’t be just the dumb fecks dying.
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Here you can see as time passes (top to bottom) that the proportion of cases in older age groups (right) drops significantly. Coincides with vaccine rollout.
That's Madness although i have to say i dont see the point in restrictions anymore while cases are rising sharply, people are just doing what they want. There is now a call from one minister to scrap the 9pm curfew because.............wait for it.............the clocks go forward next week and with longer days it will be harder for young people to follow the curfew rule. Yeah thats the way to go, if no-one is following the rules then just abandon them. All i can do is protect myself and feck everybody else, just let them get it and suffer.
I would literally allow people to do whatever the hell they want as long as they signed agreements that waive their right to hospital care if they get it by being idiots.
Im not a doctor but why would they triage an elderly patient with brethlessness as non-covid without doing a test? Seems silly to me..
Yep, and let the tested or vaccined people into restaurants and video their enjoyment to people at anti lockdown rallies.
It shows proportion of cases in the coloured area. Absolute numbers (very far right hand side) are still falling.
Ah. Ok. Still hard to interpret as absolute numbers have been falling for all age groups, right?
To be fair, most elderly people would have been vaccinated before this time frame (I think?) so if we could see the data from December through to now it might look more dramatic.
Thats the point, absolute numbers are falling everywhere so its hard to see a vaccine effect with absolute numbers. There is a clear cascade working its way down the age groups as vaccines start to take an effect.
Just to be clear, as this shows proportion of cases, falls in one area necessitate a rise in others.
I get all that. I just don’t think the data they show there demonstrates a “vaccine effect. The most obvious difference between the first and most recent few weeks is a drop in 30 to 50 year olds. Although maybe that’s driven by vaccinated HCWs?
The proportional %s for the elderly are actually higher at the end than they are at the beginning. If you read the numbers anyway. The colour coding is confusing as hell.
What does she think killed him?I am sure most of them would be happy to sign these agreements
There is a huge green blob between mid and end of Feb which you seem to have ignored.
You couldn't be more wrong there Pogue, look again. Baseline week, 90+ are 2.03% of cases. 20th march 90+ are 0.30% of cases.
In my experience too many deaths in multi-generational households has been because of irresponsible family members not following the rules despite knowing they've got a clinically vulnerable and often housebound elderly grandparent, and in many instances not getting tested or taking precautions when symptomatic.
The young ones in those instances are usually fine but the elderly who could've lived a lot longer and didnt want that risk taken with their life effectively had that choice taken from them. The irony is that the young people on marches and those who take more risks, if they get sick, are the ones who get prioritised for the ventilators.
Gotcha. I was being dumb. Reading the % change as the actual %.
I think it'll only get worse in terms of obeying rules and restrictions, and I blame our government for that. People don't take them and their decisions seriously anymore.
I think i made the same mistake when i first looked at it!
Here is another, possibly simpler demonstration of the vaccine effect. @giggs-beckham , @Pogue Mahone see the second tweet. Very high levels of antibodies in older age groups.
The other interesting element is the increase in detection in 10-19 year olds since beginning of March due to schools returning and increasing lateral flow testing.
It is always interesting to see cultural, regional variations in response to covid. We've got our versions of believers in conspiracy theories too.
There are still a few in my extended family who still believe that the ones who have died from or get severe covid are being punished for past sins. Others who think taking infections precautions is futile because everything is planned by a higher power anyway.
Illustrated below this tweet from recent cancellation of a lucrative cricket tournament due to an inevitable covid outbreak
Well, actual numbers have fallen if you look at very top and bottom rows.
As ive said, as this shows proportion of cases, falls in one area necessitate a rise in others.
I have to be honest, I've never understood this particular attitude from some in the Muslim community. Its prevalent in my wife's Egyptian in-laws if they're very religious.
Yet they look before crossing the street. Surely if God has ordained that you won't die then, no point taking such precautions when crossing?
Similar with DNACPR discussions. 'We want everything done cos it is only god who can take away life'. I mean....surely your heart stopping beating is God's way of saying I'm taking away your life? And us jumping on top of your poor 90 year old relative and shocking her....is us trying to take that power away?