Is that data really accurate at this stage? What about all the mild cases that are not included as data points..
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Is that data really accurate at this stage? What about all the mild cases that are not included as data points..
The mild cases aren't included. Just like the mild cases aren't included when calculating the mortality of flu.
Ignore mild cases from both diseases and COVID-19 is has a mortality rate that is at least 20 to 30 times higher than influenza.
It''s very serious for anyone with underlying conditions. This is spreading around like a common virus and badly affects the breathing. There's only so many intensive care units to help people and your parents or mine are not going to find a place in the hospital soon.
Epidemiology is a rock solid medical science. We don't need to work any of this stuff out ourselves. We don't need to shoot the breeze about it on footie forums. We don't need to let our inner Trumps loose. We just need to listen to the doctors.
A lot of people are arguing with you, but I'll just ask this though. What do you think will happen to the 10%+ that actually require ICU care in countries with no functioning healthcare infrastructure? Given that it's already overwhelming the first world health care of countries like Italy.
China built 14 emergency hospitals in one province in a week, if you need any indication of the serious situation we're facing. We already have less capacity than them, and seemingly cannot just throw up new hospitals.
Another massive event canceled in the US: Chicago St Patrick's Day parade.
Also multiple universities in the MW like Michigan State switching to online classes.
Also multiple universities in the MW like Michigan State switching to online classes.
I suppose that would depend on your definition of "minimal".
You would have an approximately 1 in 500 chance of dying (assuming that you are under the age of 40). Overall, 1 in 7 people who catch this require hospital treatment to recover from it.
Many people will die not directly because of coronavirus but because they can't get medical help as hospitals will be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients.
And that's assuming all data is final and it won't get worse. I think the chances of dying will be higher than 1 in 500.
I would not say arguing (at least I am not) we are simply having a discussion and I see your point which is why I agree we should try to prevent it which is what it deems country’s are trying to do. People would receive less care which means they could get more sick etc. (if that was too happen).
I am saying based on the numbers currently provided to us the death rates are very low in all countries where the corona virus has broken out.
I Am not saying we should all just say feck it and take a Red Cafe field trip to China or Italy. I agree with the fact that we NEED to prevent the spread of it the best we can.
I think it's difficult to get any accurate assessment at the moment. Best guess from multiple studies that try to account for unknown cases currently puts it at between 0.3 and 1%, which would put it at 3-10 times as deadly as flu:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
Following the citations to source those estimates tend to exclude China and predate the increased death rate in Italy. That means they're a series of estimates based on health systems that are not overburdened, so the actual death rate may trend higher. Then again, the true number of mild cases might be more undersampled than they estimate. Then again, again the outcome of many cases is still unknown. Difficult to pin down really.
Yeah, it only has 2 small problems:
1) It totally misses the point and doesn’t understand exponential functions.
2) It is factually incorrect.
Is it definitely not included in influenza? Surely years of data collecting and research will have it accounted for no?
I think the CFR rate might closer to the original 3.4% than 2% as well.
Which is why I posted a study from John Hopkins university instead
This is also assuming you have access to an ITU bed. Which China did an outstanding job at providing in unprecedented quantities for its citiziens. Hence the mortality data from China is much lower than, say, Italy. And Italy has twice as many ITU beds per capita as the UK.
Are you just going to ignore what you are told and make the same stupid points? If so I think I'll remove you from here because it's getting tiresome.
Definitely not included. I mean, you must have caught flu before? I know I have.
But I've never once had a lab test to confirm the diagnosis. Have you? If not, we won't be included in the data points to assess mortality.
The Spanish flu had a mortality rate of circa 10%, but covid-19 might be more contagious. And if many people get infected at the same time, we can expect the mortality rate to go up considering the lack of medical support.
In fact, Spanish flu might have had an artificially high mortality rate considering that it happened during the war and so there was no adequate medical support for many people. We can expect here the mortality rate to go higher when the number of infected people is higher than the number of beds in the hospital, and the hospitals run out of oxygen breathers and so cannot support the infected.
For this, it is extremely important to slow down the spread of it.
You're having mare here. Just stop.
That was debunked, no? Didn't the WHO come out and say it was less?
Coronavirus has a higher mortality rate than Spanish Flu if you treat it with the medical treatment in 1918 as opposed to 2020. On a level playing field, Coronavirus is a more deadly virus.
First death in Ireland
Eh? How did you become a mod exactly?
“This guy has a different view then me or people in the thread so I am going to remove you”
I am not arguing or offending anyone (to my knowledge) I am simply having a discussion about the topic at hand.
The hell kind of mod is this.
I thought this was a joke. I used to work here.
Meh. 8 is clearly a very low number. Lower than all numbers from 9 and above and even up to a hundred. So based on that we can see that it's not a life threatening virus. No more threatening than dying from decapitation which kills 100 percentage of people (92 times more than 8).
The virus in its self is not scary or incredibly frightening its the fact that if you left it to just be you could have 200,000 people all ill with the same virus at the exact same time now there could be a very small percentage that needed critical care, but with our top heavy populations its likely to be higher then in a perfect stat model where its evenly infected all age ranges. In reality its likely to infect more 50+ year olds as most places have a top heavy population (we are living longer) so you have a case of 10/20 thousand critical people with say 5,000 available spaces to give them the treatment they require to have a chance of survival.
They would then have to go back to war like medical care and make an on spot judgement of who was likely to recover 70+ left to fight for yourself, underlying medical issues left to fight for yourself. as they prioritize the healthier younger over 50's then the others.
As the young population who will likely have a week in bed then go back to work its down to us to do everything possible to prevent the spread not to save ourselves but to look after the previous generation that brought us in to the world.
That is the issue.
That's old data.
There have been 121,844 cases 4,375 deaths 66,625 recovered that leaves 50844 active cases.
16,145 of the active cases are in China. That means that 34,499 active cases are elsewhere in the world.
While the numbers have dropped dramatically in China they have done that by strict containment enforcement. Their death rate dropped because they brought a hell of a lot of ventilators to keep people alive long enough for their bodies to fight the infection.
8% mortality is absolutely frightening. Especially if you consider that apparently it's not impossible to contract this multiple times (there were cases of people becoming sick twice).
Your view is ridiculous and not worth discussing.
Funny guy. I am going off the information received. If this becomes as bad as you guys assume it to get too I have said many times I would admit I was wrong on the topic.
god forbid someone has a different opinion or view...am i right
Yes you are. you're ignoring what you are being told and posting the same rubbish. I don't have time for your nonsense so listen when you are told something by somebody who understands what is going on. Your cancer analogy was one of the stupidest things I've seen in ages.
Personally I would be very surprised if with decades of studies they cannot (relatively) accurately determine and predict how many people will have a mild flu each year that do not actually see a Doctor.
So then don’t reply? Tf
"It's a beautiful virus, wonderful, it kills less than cancer does, that's something. And we can cure it, they say maybe a few months for a vaccine, a beautiful vaccine."