SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Well at 2pm we’ll know how we’re doing today. Those are only official figures of course. I did read somewhere that we are now ramping up testing to up to 10,000 a day from 1,000. I actually think this is key and why Korea are doing so well
 
Might be committing a legal offense
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/129/regulation/15/made

15.—(1) A person (“P”) commits an offence if P—
(a)fails, without reasonable excuse, to comply with a restriction or requirement imposed under regulation 4(1), 5(1), 7(1) or 9(4) or (5);
(b)absconds, or attempts to abscond, from detention or isolation under regulation 4, 5 or 8.

(2) A person who provides false or misleading information intentionally or recklessly to any person carrying out a function under these Regulations commits an offence.

(3) A person who obstructs, without reasonable excuse, any person carrying out a function under these Regulations commits an offence.

(4) A responsible adult who fails without reasonable excuse to comply with regulation 5(4), 6(3) or 7(7) commits an offence.

(5) An offence specified in paragraphs (1), (2), (3) or (4) is punishable on summary conviction by a fine not exceeding level 3 on the standard scale.

Has this been passed yet?
 
Interesting thing about the Spanish was that it mostly killed 20-40 year olds. In a time when there was little social or medical support many families main bread winners died at home from it.
 
Oh I am fully aware of biases etc, but in times like this humans have always been very resourceful. In WW2 things were being designed, built and tested in months instead of decades. I don't think it's a stretch to say this is the medical equivalent of that. There has almost certainly never before been such a concentration and collaboration of resources on a single topic.

Absolutely. It's just that the way in which we make sure that drugs are safe and effective can only be shortened by so much. That's why we haven't a hope of a vaccine any time this year. I think the same will be true for a treatment. Loads of anecdotal reports about good outcomes with loads of different drugs but the results of RCTs needed to confirm that they work won't be out until long after this current epidemic has peaked (and they won't be licensed for use, for months and months after that)
 
Has this been passed yet?

Yes was signed by Matt Hancock on 10th Feb 2020 - valid for 2 years
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/129/contents/made
The Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020 have been put in place to reduce the risk of further human-to-human transmission in this country by keeping individuals in isolation where public health professionals believe there is a reasonable risk an individual may have the virus.

Has been useful for GPs as we have quite a few patients trying to bypass 111 by lying as to the pretext of their appointment, not disclosing their travel history to receptionists.

Essentially from my understanding that anybody who fails to comply with quarantine or other restrictions, provides misleading info or obstructs somebody doing their job commits an offense.

It is quite broad but essentially you can be forcibly restricted to your home or detained for treatment by force if needed. It provides constables with power to enter and detain those at risk to public health anywhere.
 
Interesting thing about the Spanish was that it mostly killed 20-40 year olds. In a time when there was little social or medical support many families main bread winners died at home from it.

I don't think that's true. All the major viral pandemics have had a U-shaped curve in terms of mortality rates. Most dangerous to the very old and very young. COVID-19 seems to be missing the left hand side of that curve. Nobody knows why but it's a massive fecking relief to parents. It's possible that the Spanish flu ended up killing bigger numbers of 20-40 year olds (because the old and young didn't get out as much?) but they would have definitely had a lower mortality rate.
 
I’ve got diarrhea today and the sweats (but not feverish). No other symptoms other than a dryish mouth and occasional sneeze.

My wife is at work and texted to say she feels dizzy and nauseous

:nervous:
 
Ultimately the experts say this will keep going. Some areas might be able to spread out the numbers a little better early on but over the next 3-6-12 months this will be everywhere for most countries.

Going to get more and more worrying for those with or know someone with underlying conditions
 
Taking that quite seriously as obviously written by an intensivist who sounds like knows what talking about and especially worrying of a rapid myocarditis-like deterioration in the select patient he mentioned. But plural of anecdote not data, sampling, Berkson bias all have to be taken into consideration with the post.

Also interesting to note regarding Remdesivir, the LFT derangement being taken off as a contraindication and more widespread use should hopefully yield information regarding its use as an avenue for therapeutic intervention.

True. It's also very easy to get overwhelmed by focussing on what we're hearing from intensivists. I have no doubt that this epidemic will be an absolute nightmare for people who work in ITU. Literally unprecedented. It's important to remember that the experience of the average citizen (and primary care physicians?) in the regions that have been badly hit is probably nowhere near as grim as what the critical care docs are going through. That's what's keeping me sane anyway!
 
I’ve got diarrhea today and the sweats (but not feverish). No other symptoms other than a dryish mouth and occasional sneeze.

My wife is at work and texted to say she feels dizzy and nauseous

:nervous:
If I were you, I'd load up on vitamin C and zinc, and take the rest of the week (at the very least) off work.
 
Angela Merkel reckons 60-70% of Germany will catch the virus.

Assuming a similar infection rate in the UK and the CFR remaining at 2%, that would equate to 720,000 people dying.

If the CFR gets any higher (as I think it will be in industrialised nations) we could be looking at north of 1 million deaths.

Feck.
 
Our government here in Poland decided that all schools, kindergartens and universities are to be completely shut down from Monday. For two weeks as it stands. Thursday and Friday are for parents to organise children care but all students who are looked after by adults do not have to attend classes. Teachers who have young kids (like me) do not have to come to work from now on, too. We have 26 confirmed cases as of now. I have to say fair play.
 
Behavioural psychologist is code word for 'what Dom thinks' really isn't it?

PHE were already saying we're past containment a week or so ago before Boris came out and strongly asserted we were still in containment.

I still think they're just using up NHS capacity before harsher measures are implemented. If you can get just the right amount infected now then it'll ease a resurgence later. I definitely don't think that's based on any concrete science though (the measures themselves are) as much as Dom and his team of modelling 'gurus'.
 
I’ve got diarrhea today and the sweats (but not feverish). No other symptoms other than a dryish mouth and occasional sneeze.

My wife is at work and texted to say she feels dizzy and nauseous

:nervous:
132170


Most common symptoms of coronavirus are
fever 88%
dry cough 68%
exhausation/malaise 38%
mucus production when coughing 33%
shortness of breath 18%
sore throat 14%
headaches 14%
muscle aches 14%
chills 11%
nausea and vomiting 5%
stuffy nose 5%
diarrhoea 4%
runny nose is not a symptom
 
Whilst it undoubtedly does affect young people, it is nowhere near as bad for them, and a part of why the health services are trying to warn/scare young people is because they are thought to be the ones spreading it.

Some more figures from Italy on the makeup of the cases, based on the first 6,000 patients:

65% male

0-9yrs - 0.5%
10-19 - 1%
20-29 - 3.5%
30-39 - 5.6%
40-49 - 10.7%
50-59 - 17.4%
60-69 - 17.7%
70-79 - 21.4%
80+ - 18.4%

9.8% have no symptoms
35.6% mild symptoms
5.6% severe
18.6% critical
30.7% not recorded

Median age of hospitalised is 69 and by age range:
0-18yrs - 0%
19-50 - 10%
51-70 - 46%
71+ - 44%

For those who are interested, they publish latest data every Tuesday and Friday - https://www.epicentro.iss.it/
 
Interesting thing about the Spanish was that it mostly killed 20-40 year olds. In a time when there was little social or medical support many families main bread winners died at home from it.

Combination of a couple of factors.

1. It killed people with 'stronger' immune systems.
2. There were fewer younger/older people at the time.

(It still killed many very young and very old)
 
Whilst it undoubtedly does affect young people, it is nowhere near as bad for them, and a part of why the health services are trying to warn/scare young people is because they are thought to be the ones spreading it.

Some more figures from Italy on the makeup of the cases, based on the first 6,000 patients:

65% male

0-9yrs - 0.5%
10-19 - 1%
20-29 - 3.5%
30-39 - 5.6%
40-49 - 10.7%
50-59 - 17.4%
60-69 - 17.7%
70-79 - 21.4%
80+ - 18.4%

9.8% have no symptoms
35.6% mild symptoms
5.6% severe
18.6% critical
30.7% not recorded

Median age of hospitalised is 69 and by age range:
0-18yrs - 0%
19-50 - 10%
51-70 - 46%
71+ - 44%

For those who are interested, they publish latest data every Tuesday and Friday - https://www.epicentro.iss.it/

The male/female split is interesting. One theory I've heard is that smokers express more of the protein that the virus binds to in their lungs. And more men than women smoke.
 
Angela Merkel reckons 60-70% of Germany will catch the virus.

Assuming a similar infection rate in the UK and the CFR remaining at 2%, that would equate to 720,000 people dying.

If the CFR gets any higher (as I think it will be in industrialised nations) we could be looking at north of 1 million deaths.

Feck.

I'm curious. Do you still I was wrong in suggesting lockdowns should have started 2 weeks ago?

As for those numbers, they don't seem right. 80,000 confirmed cases in China is a minimal proportion of their population. If the right measured are put in place, this can and will he controlled. We're reaching a point where its the men and women in suits killing people, not the virus.
 
True. It's also very easy to get overwhelmed by focussing on what we're hearing from intensivists. I have no doubt that this epidemic will be an absolute nightmare for people who work in ITU. Literally unprecedented. It's important to remember that the experience of the average citizen (and primary care physicians?) in the regions that have been badly hit is probably nowhere near as grim as what the critical care docs are going through. That's what's keeping me sane anyway!

I mean I've worked as an SHO in what I think is fairly intense environments with very sick patients (e.g. resus in A&E) but when you go into pressors, intubation very few doctors would be familiar with working with patients requiring those. Talking about make-shifts ITU settings in theatres but have we got the staff to cope?
We're one of the worst in Europe in terms of ITU beds per patient.
Feel so sorry for areas that would be really worse off with a paucity of critical care beds and facilities likes Wales.
 
132170


Most common symptoms of coronavirus are
fever 88%
dry cough 68%
exhausation/malaise 38%
mucus production when coughing 33%
shortness of breath 18%
sore throat 14%
headaches 14%
muscle aches 14%
chills 11%
nausea and vomiting 5%
stuffy nose 5%
diarrhoea 4%
runny nose is not a symptom
Feck me. They weren't lying when they said that it was almost symptom-less.

I'll try to look out for people with a 'malaise'.
 
I'm curious. Do you still I was wrong in suggesting lockdowns should have started 2 weeks ago?

As for those numbers, they don't seem right. 80,000 confirmed cases in China is a minimal proportion of their population. If the right measured are put in place, this can and will he controlled. We're reaching a point where its the men and women in suits killing people, not the virus.
Even by your standards, this is a stupid post.
 
Feck me. They weren't lying when they said that it was almost symptom-less.

I'll try to look out for people with a 'malaise'.

I think the diagnosis is more likely based on of a confluence of aforementioned symptoms (taking into account travel history, exposure risk etc) rather than one individual symptom. However I think the relatively prolonged infectious prodromal/incubation phase where there are a lack of obvious symptoms is a massive worry with regards to spread.
 
Even by your standards, this is a stupid post.

Ok.

Had we started implementing measures to screen at airports, we could have avoided a massive worldwide outbreak.

Most countries welcomed the virus in with open arms.
 
listening to the budget.

All sounds great for businesses, but how the feck are they able to help people that much?
 
I’ve got diarrhea today and the sweats (but not feverish). No other symptoms other than a dryish mouth and occasional sneeze.

My wife is at work and texted to say she feels dizzy and nauseous

:nervous:

Been suffering with a cough for several months due to other health issues, but last couple of days things have really ramped up. Headaches, nasty chesty cough/phlegm, aching limbs, feeling hot then cold. Hoping it's just regular flu but calling docs tomorrow just in case. No contact with risk cases and was working from home all last week.
 
I mean I've worked as an SHO in what I think is fairly intense environments with very sick patients (e.g. resus in A&E) but when you go into pressors, intubation very few doctors would be familiar with working with patients requiring those. Talking about make-shifts ITU settings in theatres but have we got the staff to cope?
We're one of the worst in Europe in terms of ITU beds per patient.
Feel so sorry for areas that would be really worse off with a paucity of critical care beds and facilities likes Wales.

Approx half as many ITU beds per capita as Lombardy in Italy.
 
The male/female split is interesting. One theory I've heard is that smokers express more of the protein that the virus binds to in their lungs. And more men than women smoke.

And lots of Italians smoke, and whilst it's traditional for an 80yr old bloke in the UK to sit at home watching Cash in the Attic, in Italy they're all sitting around the same table in the local cafe. The women do that far less.

I have also seen that it could be something to do with the increased estrogen levels in women and how that alters your immune response.