I dont think it will cause more than Covid - but the point you raise is completely valid - there will be a big number of excess deaths indirectly linked to Covid.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
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Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) discuss United's fantastic win away against Athletic Club in the semi-final of the Europa League.
They also pick out the positives of United's 4-3 loss away at Brentford, and Nik reviews a day out at Old Trafford watching Manchester United Women qualify for the Champions League.
On it's own that's no big deal, all antibodies reduce over time. How much does it compare to other infections, and would booster doses help? I suppose we have to wait and see.
Yeah I wouldnt be too concerned just yet.
Antibodies declining is expected, antibodies remaining at good levels in NHS staff that are frequently exposed to the virus is very encouraging. The real concern would be people who have had the infection not being able to produce an antibody response if exposed again.
Had an awful day in work yesterday, basically had the worst migraine ever, followed by a period of light headedness. I knew I wasn't 100% so headed straight home for some painkillers and a lie down. Fell asleep for two hours and woke feeling not too bad but could feel I was starting to feel chesty.
Anyway gets in bed and I'm struggling to get to sleep with worry and a clear chesty feeling then the migrane returns and it feels like I'm having my head crushed it's that bad. Several painkillers later I'm now lay in bed taken time off work and waiting for a delivery of a test my wife ordered me yesterday when I was feel unwell.
I still feel chesty but not to the point its a continuous cough.
Have I done the right thing or have I overreacted?
Anyway gets in bed and I'm struggling to get to sleep with worry and a clear chesty feeling then the migrane returns and it feels like I'm having my head crushed it's that bad. Several painkillers later I'm now lay in bed taken time off work and waiting for a delivery of a test my wife ordered me yesterday when I was feel unwell.
I still feel chesty but not to the point its a continuous cough.
Have I done the right thing or have I overreacted?
With perfect timing to this last bit of the thread it has been kicking off in Italian cities overnight. In contrast to the very simple and necessary restrictions the first time round, which worked about as well as any country anywhere, it's a lot less clear this time and people are getting annoyed. We've had three different sets of rules implemented in the last week alone and there's a big feeling of what has the last 8 months been for, if we are back where we started and everything is closing down again.
Having been in both places in the last couple of weeks i would say the central government response in the UK is better, but the regional governments in Italy are better, and the people are more accepting of the measures, but it's all a lot closer than it was in the first wave.
I don't. They have started offering a LAMP test out of Heathrow but the marketing efforts backfired when all but one government refused to accept it. If they won't accept that they're definitely not going to accept a far less accurate antigen test.
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Not sure what you mean by “accept” but there will 100% be a role for point of care testing in the months/years ahead. My personal opinion is that it will be a very big/important role. Could be wrong though.
I mean governments are not going to accept antigen tests unless we can drastically improve the sensitivity.
What do you mean by ‘accept’ though? They’re already being used in government funded surveillance studies to get a snap shot of disease prevalence. So governments clearly see a role for them, even with their current limitations re accuracy.
I think we’ll see better and better POC tests developed (whether they involve serum antigen test or saliva/breath testing) which will become an important tool in the public health response. It’s definitely conceivable we get to a point where daily or weekly POC testing of millions and millions of people will become routine.
Probably better to be safe than sorry! I hope you're feeling better soon mate!
Here in Ireland we (over 70s) have been in Lockdown for most of the time since 15th March. We are doing everything that is asked of us, but others are carrying on as if there was no covid. Only essential stores open now, and we are all hoping for a decent Christmas with all shops opening and going back to Level 2 .. We are doing this so as Christmas time, we can visit our grandchildren with a hug, have a drink with our children and friends ( sticking by the rules of course). Level 3 here means that our local (Wet pubs) will still stay closed. So we will feel defeated again.
Sample surveys are one thing, but to be used as a form of passporting system in the future or definitive yes/no test? You can't run the risk of infected people being told they're clear and free to run around.
Don't you think it's a bit strange that essentially no Western government has even piloted the proposal mentioned in that Atlantic article? Not that they should make decisions based on popular opinion but the premise is pretty solid. When the WHO gave emergency approval for the approach in a few African countries to test multiple people on the same PCR test, and then retest individuals when it identifies a positive, I thought we might have seen echoes of that in the West.
I wonder whether it's something to do with legislation and liability that requires them to have a certain level of specificity to detect it in individuals, which inhibits the wider goal of rapidly identifying clusters? If their approach kept things under control then I could understand it, but at repeated stages that hasn't been the case. Surely there should be questions about different approaches given the direction things are going.
It depends what you want your test to do. Identify people who are infectious or people who have some trace of virus. If it’s the former then there is a place for rapid antigen tests. In Australia, I would like to see rapid antigen tests used routinely as screening tools in high risk industries like meat works, hospitals, etc. With any positives being confirmed by PCR. I know there is work going on to build mobile testing labs to do this type of thing.
This is fun to play with: https://calculator.unitedinresearch.com/complex_dashboard
Really shows the importance of getting results back quickly to stop spread.
Here’s the pre-print to go with it: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.11.20211011v2
Cheers.
The thing is I'd usually have the attitude it will pass and its not that bad but given the implications on other people I thought it best I follow protocol.
The government in the UK needs to come up with Something quick regarding Christmas. Literally everyone I speak to is saying that they are going to ignore the rule of six at Christmas.
Groups are going to gather and when alcohol starts flowing social distancing will go out the window.
Groups are going to gather and when alcohol starts flowing social distancing will go out the window.
I bet good money the government will take a “they’re going to do it anyway so let’s earn some political good will” approach to Christmas.
Speaking from what I know in Aus, regulatory agencies (TGA) are hesitant to approve tests without the same sensitivity as RT-qPCR. This makes sense if you are trying to track and isolate every single case. But long term I think there is a place for rapid antigen testing. We are evaluating a few where I work. The “operation moonshot” / Michael Mena plan is most likely too large to make work. It’s dependent on really really cheap tests that can be manufactured at a huge scale. Don’t think there is the political will anywhere to make this happen. Screening high risk environments seeems more realistic. Or testing people a couple of hours before they get on flights (this should absolutely be happening).
On pooled PCR testing, I think this is happening in American colleges. One of the academics that set up a lighthouse lab (Alan McNally) was calling for it to be used for testing schools and unis in the UK but it didn’t happen. He has been very vocal about how the testing capacity in the UK has been squandered and should be used in a more targeted approach.
I suspect they will lock down as much as possible on run down to Christmas - briefly relax the rules for 2 days over Christmas and then put a lockdown in for New Years Eve for 4 weeks or so.
Interesting!
Weird side note but I just stumbled across this story which gives some insight into how authoritarian governments fudge the numbers. I knew there were "reports that cases were 20x higher than the Turkish government claimed", but I didn't know the documents were brought out in the open by the opposition, with the details laid bare for all to see...and the government confirmed it!
They better not relax the rules.
This is an amazing excuse to not have to visit family this year
At a population level, it could still make sense. Even allowing for false negatives. The idea being that even if you miss some cases you’re still picking up many more that would otherwise be missed without a cheap, rapid test available in huge numbers.
It’s all about how to best use them. I see their main role as a screening test for use on a massive scale. I don’t think they will have much of a role in travel, the way you describe, any time soon. Although they will get more and more accurate so could end up being used that way at some point.
Stopping people going to other people's houses is unenforceable, unless they have a massive party with loud music and it's obvious. Some folk will dob other people in, many won't.
My sister rents a house in a posh road where everyone else (white, elderly) is an owner. Last year (before Covid) her son came back from Vietnam with his Vietnamese girlfriend for a 6-month stay. They rented a house for the whole time they were in the UK.
They stayed with my sister for just one night when they arrived after the long flight, and one of the neighbours rang my sister's landlady and said she had an unauthorised tenant there! Of course, I'm convinced that was motivated by racism, but it shows that some people are itching to get other people into trouble, for absolutely no reason.
Then people should, you know rather than beat the same drum about lockdowns, do whatever it takes to ease the pressure on the health services by wearing masks, socially distancing, stop meeting up unnecessarily etc
if people would do that to flatten the numbers then other services could resume
Some good news about the Oxford vaccine
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...-astrazeneca-works-in-all-ages-trials-suggest
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2...-astrazeneca-works-in-all-ages-trials-suggest
Around Christmas, if Boris and cnuts continue with the no lockdown policy....I imagine they'll make Christmas a your household only.
Then when nobody listens and the shit really hits the fan, it's going to be your own fault.
Then when nobody listens and the shit really hits the fan, it's going to be your own fault.
So anybody have any insight on how its looking in Africa?
I remember in the beginning people were scared that it would be a disaster there, but have not heard much since. Maybe exept some articles about South Africa, but even that was some time ago now.
Is it the usual "western media dont care much about africa" and i need to check other sources or is the situation there not so bad?
I remember in the beginning people were scared that it would be a disaster there, but have not heard much since. Maybe exept some articles about South Africa, but even that was some time ago now.
Is it the usual "western media dont care much about africa" and i need to check other sources or is the situation there not so bad?
This reads very positive indeed - -Just get it rolled out lads!!!
I just hope it all goes smoothly through to passing phase 3 trials and then regulatory approval.
How long do they trial vaccines in stage 3?
After i got a kid i cant watch stuff like that anymore. Its impossible.
But thanks anyway. Anybody got anymore info on Africa and how its going there?
Because they’re fcuking stupid.
We have solutions to the stupidity of the British condition.
Have a National ‘Zoom Christmas’. Get a throng of 10,000 celebrities, sports people, politicians, and encourage people to have Virtual Xmas days online. Have celebrities Zoom-Bomb those family fun times throughout the day.
That’s an arse fart of an idea that would probably placate people while still being additive. People would love it. Nobody will act responsibly unless they have reason to.
Everyone staying home, hoping to get David Beckham or Adele dialling in as they open their Xmas presents with Mum and Nan... ending up with Joey Essex.
We can find ways to solve problems without throwing our arms in the air saying ‘Ah feck it’
Just a quick point. That is the worst idea I’ve ever heard of.
Developed cities that have Covid imported from other regions have seen higher cases, but Africa has fewer routine transmission routes. Internal flights etc. they don’t import cases from hotspots to unaffected areas as much.
Plus it has more sunshine. Plus I’m sure it’s underreported in many areas.
I’ve got friends in Cape Town, Addis Ababa and Accra. It’s sketchy and loosely following standard global trends in all three. No idea how small towns, cities and villages are doing obviously.
I said it was an arse fart of an idea.
A worse idea was your old man thinking he shouldn’t wear a Condom.kidding x
You are absolutely not allowed to make an awful idea but then post “it’s an awful idea” to excuse it. I simply refuse to accept it.
The maths of that idea makes it so bad its almost amazing. “Here you go, Becks, work your way through this list. If you could get the first 1000 ticked off before lunch that would be great.”
I’m clearly pointing out the absurdity of the British Condition in the nonsensical suggestion.
But you can’t call out the Math.
Poor people buy lottery tickets. If there was a 1 in 50,000 chance that Brexiteers could get the Queen zoom-bombing them on Christmas Day, they’d stay home.
Extending the absurdity... why not digitally merge a family of two twenty somethings in SE10 with a family of 4 in Brum, and a Gay couple with two kids in Dumfries, and a group of 8 quarantined Uni students and have Prince Andrew drop in for a glass of Port.
Point being, our options are not “They’re gonna do it so let’s just let them”
Right headed ideas would revolve around large communal gatherings predicated on those gatherings being tested.
This country could get ahead of ignorant self serving twats and avoid a Nationwide super spreader event that sees this shit get really real.
My Family?.... we’ve all agreed to spend the 14 day run up to Christmas in self isolation, we’ve booked a large house, I’m buying everyone’s tests, anyone that breaks protocol can’t come.
It annoys the feck out of me. But they were going to just go to their own houses had I not stepped in.
I think we’ll see thousands dead daily in late Jan/Feb.