SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Don’t we only need one to work?
Really?!? I haven’t been following Brazil recently. Is it avoiding a European style second wave? I wonder if Brazil is getting the herd immunity Sweden never achieved. Perhaps having an incompetent moron in charge has its upsides?
Is the testing still the same as before?
I mean, we were originally 2-4 weeks behind Europe... so maybe its coming for us soon. But right now the 2 initial hotspots of Rio and São Paulo, or the country in aggregate aren't seeing an increase in the trend of daily cases. Our testing capacity also is still below that of developed countries, so we could be undercounting. But we're also definitely not seeing deaths anywhere near the level that happened in the first wave, detected or undetected.
I think Brazil, similar to the US, would be a bad candidate for herd immunity on a national level. 200+ million people, widely spread. But it does seem that on a local level the incidence of the virus at one time, eventually leads to lower incidence in the future even in the absence of strict measures.
Not great.
I think I've been resigned to the idea we'll be living with this from now on for a while. It's about finding ways to live with it that allows people to live normal lives and minimises the amount of people it kills.
50% effectiveness sounds rubbish but actually that's a potential game changer. If you can give a majority of vulnerable people a vaccine that gives them a 50% chance of being immune to the virus then you can imagine the difference that makes. If you can find a way to give that vaccine to a majority of people in general, then even the vulnerable people who the vaccine doesn't work for will be far less likely to catch it off someone else in the first place.
If you couple that with treatments and preperation getting better, and the hope (admittedly that's what it is at the moment) the virus will become less dangerous, then you are into the realms of being able to let people function and live out their lives without covid being a factor at every single corner.
I think my bigger scepticism with vaccines is how effectively they'll be distributed and how willing people will be to have them. Longer term carrying on as things have been this year will go out of the window one way or another, so it's all about bringing down the risk factor to normal day to day life I think. The idea of getting rid of the virus as a threat completely doesn't really add up to me. If people can catch it, recover and then catch it again it's unlikely to go away.
When you look at the death and case numbers there per 1m, and the fact it's probably underplayed if anything, it's debatable if it was worth it even if that is the case.
Always thought the issue with herd immunity wasn't just whether it would work or not. It's what it would do to our overall health care system in the process. We'd have had people literally dying in hospital hallways, in their homes, etc. and not just from covid.
Yeah, absolutely. I was being flippant. Certainly wouldn’t want any other country to go through what Brazil went through.
Don't know what your timeframe for "before" is. In the main daily reporting of the national stats they don't talk about positivity rate which is a big flaw. I'm not sure they're compiling that. So I'm left with anecdotes from living in metropolitan Rio. In March/April you couldn't get a test if you weren't in hospital basically, now its widely available at your existing health labs if you have insurance or will pay, as well as quick tests at a few pharmacy chains. But again, don't know what the situation is in our state-operated health system which includes hospitals and clinics. Haven't read any reports of them being impossible to get either though.
I thought we would get a vaccine and the world would open up immediately but I'm beginning to think differently. I feel sorry for my daughter who had saved up for and had been looking forward to a gap year for about 3 three years. She was due to fly to the Philipines on 23rd March 2020 and the whole trip has been put on hold. She hopes to go in the spring but I can't see that now.
Consultants are always highly paid. Its not a full time contract.
I have no idea what the going rate is, but the tweet reads as something designed to create outrage.
Sack Greenwood, sell Foden?Their population is so low it probably only takes one cluster to put them in the red. Still a surprise seeing them there. You’d wonder if they had any visitors from a Uk hot spot that evaded quarantine?
Derry has a significantly sized Uni for a city the size of Derry
I actually just saw a tweet from someone in Iceland saying their outbreak has been traced back to a bar on September 11th. Do the dates match?!
Water cannons full of anti-bacterial wash would be a good start
Yup. Outrage over a government spending loads of money to try and contain a pandemic. Outrage gonna outrage though.
Donnelly is a gowl and I have absolutely no doubt the schools are contributing far more than they think.
This is a repeat of "the masks dont do anything" stuff from early in the pandemic. We don't know enough to know schools contribute to the spread yet - but common sense and science would indicate they will.
Usually it would be fine but Boston Consulting Group are one of the Tories' backers so it's clearly fecked up.
Of course they will contribute to the spread but science is implying they’re less of a concern than the rest of the community right now. From what I hear the threshold for being considered a close contact is higher in school than community which makes the lower positivity rate even more reassuring.
The game was a week earlier I think.
It could probably be done way cheaper, I'm guessing is the argument.
Jaysus.
Thanks, Im not too worried though, Im a relatively healthy guy..
He’s trying to speak their language
Not really. If kids are less likely to show symptoms they are also less likely to be tested. It’s a deliberately vague statement.
Nice work if you can get it
Milan is talking about closing down again as cases broke back through 1,000 per day, though 92% of positive tests have no symptoms.
So you just got back from Italy but you’re advocating restrictions on travel to local areas only? Makes sense. This is part of the problem. Most people are completely hypocritical on how to combat this issue. Do as I say not what I do.
Aye but the premise of unis having had such a big impact is two-fold: huge numbers of people in one place partying, and them coming from far and wide and importing more cases into the area. On a relative basis that's quite a lot of people partying but in absolute numbers it doesn't have those huge, festival-like crowds, and I don't think folks are coming into Derry from far and wide. Absolutely it should have an impact but you wouldn't think it would be a similar impact to e.g. Manchester.
Disgusting. It's baffling that they can convince people they're worth that much at the proposal stage, when it's just repackaging what exists on the market and charging extortionate prices, but the fact they're doubling down when the results on such a critical project have been so poor is absolutely shocking. Anyone ok with management consultants exploiting a pandemic to deliver below par results for prices well beyond what actual experts in the fields would charge is off their rocker.
We live in Italy, that's where we're resident. We had to visit England, it wasn't a holiday - my husband never left the flat.
I don't quite know what you're saying - I followed all the (extremely strict) rules here in Italy, I followed them in England and I had a negative test on our return to Italy. My issue is with the way rules aren't enforced in the UK. It's pathetic, really. People need to stay in their local areas if the rates in that area are high.
The positivity rate is the best way to get an idea about how many cases are not being picked up by testing (e.g. asymptomatic cases) The higher the positivity rate in people we do test, the more likely it is we're missing cases in people who don't get a test. These data clearly contradict the notion that the virus is running rife in schools. If anything, it seems less prevalent in schools than in the community.
I'd like to know if he's talking about primary or secondary schools. We've known for a while that younger kids are not only less likely to get sick, they're less likely to contract the virus. So these data make sense for this age group. They're a little counter-intuitive for teenagers, though. When it seems as though they should be getting infected in fairly large numbers.
It’s still a headline figure that ignores any context. As you say yourself, we don’t know if it includes primary and secondary schools, we don’t know the total figures for testing and from reading some of the responses to the tweets they have different criteria for what constitutes a close contact in schools. So kids who have caught it at school but are tested at home aren’t included are they?
It really doesn’t show anything without a lot more data. And they know that.