Not one of the trials has succeeded yet either.
Not that he should be taken too seriously but Boris himself said we may not find a vaccine.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Not that he should be taken too seriously but Boris himself said we may not find a vaccine.
In a way you should be grateful. You ve seen what having access to social media etc does to the older gens.
Obviously not.
Did CZ really get an initial wave would probably be the question?
I agree they're ahead of the curve, however the curve of every country (excluding them) when compared to Spring still appears to be much shallower than the first wave in terms of deaths of course.
During March deaths were increasing by 20% a day up until just after lockdown (UK 30 deaths to 760 deaths over a 17 day period March 18th to April 4th). If the same were to apply from the 37 deaths on 22nd September we'd have seen 760 deaths towards the end of last week.
The EU is now publishing a weekly Europe wide regional case map here. Latest version:
And the week before:
And the week before:
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Exactly, and therein lies the problem, the government should have seen this coming a mile off and taken action.
I don't blame the students, they were not advised to stay at their family homes.
Nice map from the EU showing where you want to be, and where you dont want to be. Western Europe is a mess.
The definition of deaths has changed in the uk since the first wave (28 day rule) so you’re comparing apples and oranges.
In general, though, you’re right. Deaths are not increasing as sharply in this wave as they did first time round. Which you’d expect. The elderly/vulnerable are better protected and we’ve got better at treating the very unwell. Thankfully. Of course it remains to be seen how much longer this curve keeps on rising. In March/April we has spring/summer just around the corner. Which can take the edge off a seasonal virus epidemic. Right now spring and summer seem a VERY long way away.
True but with 33.4% of all attempted vaccine developments making it to market and 58.2% of vaccines that make it to stage 3 trials passing stage 3, with zero failures so far, we can still be reasonably optimistic.
One of the most consistent patterns with this seems to be that on a local level, if you haven't been hit hard once you're still susceptible. But no locality has been hit hard twice within just the span of lets call it 2-3 months.
Interesting idea. Aren’t there regions in Spain that got hit twice in quick succession?
If it became that important I'm sure we'd just replicate the little bluetooth "token" they have in Singapore. There's no evidence that contact tracing is a solution to the UK's problem though. If there was a point where they were able to "crush" the curve of the virus to a point where contact tracing was manageable at speed then it could be a useful tool, but that's all it should be seen as, and we're nowhere near that. It was presented to the British public as a hail Mary solution and it appeals to the technocrats but the reality is just very far from that.
The fact it's taking the tracing system 14 days to notify one contact from an outbreak in Czech Republic now is just yet another example that even "good" countries can't work well when the community transmission is growing daily.
Agreed.
Yeah I've not looked into it much but that has seemed apparent. Worries about growing cases in places like New York still leave open the possibility that there's more to the story though.
Not really familiar with what went on at local levels in much of Europe. Know a bit more about the US and Brazil, and so far in those I don't think you've had any cities see really hard numbers twice.
I bow to your superior knowledge and research but are you saying there is a 1 in 3 chance a vaccine will make it market and a slightly more then 50/50 chance the current trials will produce a vaccine?
It feels to me that at some point no matter what countries do, the virus is going to rip through a substantial chunk of their populations.
Yes there will be some who handle it incredibly badly (the states, us first time round at least) and worsen the situation but those who did well first time are now seeming to get almost as hit hard as the countries who fumbled the first wave.
It seems infection amongst those vulnerable is almost inevitable sadly until a vaccine is found.
Isn't it also true that we havent made a vaccine for a corona virus?
And about trials reaching stage 3.. Aren't things being fast tracked? Safety is important.. efficacy.. they are still not sure how much it'll work even if its safe.
Do we know if this has had the same standards for approval through the first 2 stages as a traditional vaccine that wasnt being rushed?
What's happening in Iceland? Weren't they down to tiny numbers of cases and operating a quarantine system on all arrivals?Nice map from the EU showing where you want to be, and where you dont want to be. Western Europe is a mess.
I just need to meet someone to do a deal, and ideally while there is still free trade between the UK and EU. To be fair I'd intended to make a little trip out of it but you're right there, things will be closed. Perhaps it'd just be a one day visit, no hotels. I would have to self isolate for 14 days after though.
Their population is so low it probably only takes one cluster to put them in the red. Still a surprise seeing them there. You’d wonder if they had any visitors from a Uk hot spot that evaded quarantine?
I got the Ferry to Rotterdam and back a few weeks back and nobody asked any questions. Just had to fill out that online thing before we got back.
I'm not overly optimistic about us finding a vaccine. I have only come to this realization in recent days. In fact I'm becoming less and less convinced science can bring this virus to an end by the day.
The head of the UK Covid-19 task force in this article today confirmed that any Vaccine that we find may only be 50% effective anyway.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...coronavirus-update-latest-when-trial-news-uk/
The article leads me to believe that our best chance of killing the virus will come from a mixture of treatments, a potential vaccine and track and trace. Although the article doesn't mention it there is also the hope that the Virus will mutate to become less infectious or deadly.
I think many people are hoping the virus will become less prevalent before Christmas with it being eradicated in the spring. I was certainly of this view up until a few days ago and I'm slowly realizing this may run for all of next year and potentially longer than that. I have heard less optomistic views elsewhere.
Isn't it time the Government started talking tough on this? If only to make people take the whole danger more seriously.
We have for animals. Most coronaviruses in humans aren't worth it because 4 diffent ones only cause 15% of colds. I also seem to remember that there was one for MERS close to release (although maybe still only in trials)
Nothing is being done that will compromise safety. The speeding up of the process is largely doing later processes like starting manufacture ahead of phase 3 trials so they have enough to move straight to phase 3 if phase 2 is successful. If phase 3 is successful they then will be already in full swing manufacturing it so again no delay. None of this compromises safety but it does risk wasting lots of money if phase 3 trials fail.
We won't know until phase 3 trials are finished even if phase 2 looked good.
That is my understanding for all mainstream vaccines (for want of a better term) although it sounds like China and Russia may be cutting corners.
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Cheers me dears
Yep. Detail is important.
I'm doing a test tomorrow. I feel like crap, though wheter it's covid, well, guess I'll find out.
I wasnt suggesting safety was being compromised on.. at all. Should have worded that sentence better.. I expect the vaccines passing the first 2
Was asking if they check for efficacy at those phases(1,2) and if there is an acceptable number.. and if we are lowering the bar to get more trials into phase 3 and testing on a larger scale ?
Sounds like that is not the case.. so all good.
I just read a few articles some weeks ago about them considering approving vaccines with 50% efficacy and that sounded low and was wondering if the bar was being lowered to rush something through.
Is this cause to be reasonably optimistic?
It all sounds a bit 50/50 to me with any vaccine possibly only being effective in 50% of cases. The more I hear the more I think this could be around for years and not months.
I seem to remember the Oxford vaccine produced antibodies in a very high % of test subjects in ohase 2 (90% and possibly higher with a booster I think) but phase 3 is where they test if that actually gives protection and with much bigger sample sizes. At least I think that is the case.
Phase III trials are when you learn the most about efficacy and safety. Phase II just gives you a rough idea and is mainly about identifying the optimal dosing regimen.
Interesting data from schools in Ireland.
I think the hope is for far higher than 50% effectiveness. But 50% effectiveness would still be a huge help.
https://theconversation.com/how-eff...p-the-pandemic-a-new-study-has-answers-142468
You might well need clonal antibodies and anti-virals to assist though (likely anyway as there will be vaccine resistance and an incomplete roll out).
I think the 50% figure people mention relates to flu vaccine which has a quite low effectiveness rate. However, that is mainly because influenza mutates far faster than a coronavirus does and has evolved into many strains that are so different as to need a different vaccine. So we have to guess ahead of time which strains to include in this year's vaccine and often guess wrong. At the moment that doesn't seem likely to be the case with SARS-CoV-2
Good luck mate, fingers crossed for you
think there was a report on some city in brazil tht got hit twice? will try and find it.
e - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-manaus-idUSKBN26I0I4
I was just thinking of the contrasting reactions around the world if the first cab off the ranked passed or failed phase 3. The later wouldn't be good especially with the stress most people are feeling at the moment.
The 50% figure is what the regulators have set as the bar for approval. It’s one example of the rules being bent to get a vaccine to market much quicker than usual. There are other examples. I still think whatever does get approved will be safe and reasonably effective. It definitely won’t have been as rigorously evaluated as vaccines developed outside a pandemic. We are cutting corners but we don’t have much choice.
People need to be less emotionally invested and accept that there will be disappointments ahead. Vaccine development programs fail all the time. I can guarantee that at least one of the big phase III’s won’t hit its primary endpoints and the product will be canned. That’s more or less inevitable.
I agree. Of the 11 in phase 3 4 failures would be about average. I just hope it isn't the first one that fails. The world needs some good news.
Amen to that.
Yeah Manaus, I think it's still in play a bit there. Because after the story that is about 3 weeks old now, cases tracked down vs that in the weeks right after. Anecdotally I can tell you that on the ground here in Rio, distancing measures are much much less than in March/April, and cases have continued an overall trend of decline.